Thursday, September 26, 2024

Gaming out the lame duck

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Sep 26, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO Inside Congress

By Anthony Adragna

Presented by 

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) stand during a Congressional Gold Medal ceremony at the U.S. Capitol.

Speaker Mike Johnson, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senate Minority Mitch McConnell will play large roles in shaping the chamber's December to-do list. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

COMING (LEGISLATIVE) ATTRACTIONS

The halls of Congress have gone silent until November, but lawmakers know they’ll be coming back to a hefty to-do list in the post-election lame duck session. The exact scope and ambition of that work, though, will be shaped by how that election turns out, lawmakers from both sides tell Inside Congress.

Asked by Inside Congress about his December predictions, Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) shot back with, “How do you see the election shaking out?” His counterpart, Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.), agreed: “Hard to say. I think a lot of it'll be shaped by what happens in November.”

Some items are surer bets than others:

  • Government funding: The federal government’s lights will stay on through Dec. 20, but that will leave lawmakers with a Christmas time crunch — amid vows from Speaker Mike Johnson to avoid another massive catch-all omnibus package. But the incoming president and congressional leaders might prefer to clear the decks for 2025: “I would prefer, frankly, to get my business done and not show up with immediate government shutdown,” House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) said when asked what he thought the president-elect — whoever they are — should do. 
  • Annual defense bill: Republicans (and some Democrats) are frustrated Congress hasn’t yet passed the National Defense Authorization Act amid ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East and other hotspots. “We’re doing messaging votes, and district court judges and the world's on fire,” Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) said. “[Democrats] don't prioritize national security when the world's on fire.”
  • Farm bill: Lawmakers from both parties are anxious for action on the farm bill — and Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries name-checked it as a priority for the lame duck. More than half of House Republicans asked leadership to place the GOP-led farm bill on the floor during the lame duck, while senior members of the New Democrat Coalition urged action on a bipartisan bill before the end of the year in a letter Wednesday. 

Another sure bet? Senate Democrats, especially if they lose control of the chamber, prioritizing their restock of the federal judiciary. Former President Donald Trump saw 234 judicial picks confirmed throughout his term — and Biden’s tally now rests at 213. Durbin said continuing to churn through nominees would remain a top end-of-year priority.

But some think the lengthy legislative list may limit how much time Democrats can burn on judicial nominees. “[Schumer’s] assured that the lame duck is going to primarily be involved in doing things like appropriations and the NDAA, and there won't be much time for confirmations,” Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) said. “That's fine with me, but it's a consequence of his mismanagement.”

Lame ducks can sometimes serve as a pressure release valve for bipartisan legislative priorities that get caught in election-year snarls. There’s a host of possible bills in that category, such as a Vance-led bipartisan rail safety bill, online child safety legislation, a marijuana banking bill and various efforts to speed federal permitting for energy projects.

Many lawmakers acknowledge significant uncertainty about how the elections will shake out, translating to a murky picture for the agenda right now. “That, too, depends on the election,” said Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.). Or as Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) put it: “Your guess is as good as mine.”

— Anthony Adragna

GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Inside Congress, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Thursday, Sept. 26 where we hope Sen. George Helmy (D-N.J.) enjoyed his three weeks of Senate votes. Not everyone gets to vote on an Arctic ambassador!

 

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ZELENSKYY’S PERSONAL PLEA 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy used his hour-and-half-ish session with more than 20 senators to make his pitch — not for more money, but for greater flexibility in how to use weapons systems further inside Russia, according to multiple senators who attended the meeting.

Cornyn summarized Zelenskyy’s message as, “if you give us what we need now, our chances of having to come back for more [funding] are much lower. We’re not going to get Putin to the negotiating table unless he feels the consequences.”

The Texas Republican said he had some sympathy for that view, accusing the Biden administration of having “slow-walked” key weapons systems and permission to use them inside Russia, though he added that “I’m not sure I believe” that more U.S. funding won’t be necessary.

Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.), a senior member of the Appropriations Committee, echoed Cornyn’s impression: "He wasn't asking for more aid in terms of more funding or more financing. He's saying that within the package that we've already provided, if he can get the right things that he believes he can force Putin to the table next year and start to negotiate a peace, and I think that's the real upshot and that's what's most important."

Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair Ben Cardin (D-Md.) — who has met with Zelenskyy three times this week — said his request is to both have the military strength to end the war in the next year and impose tough sanctions to hold Moscow accountable.

“I understand his blueprint,” Cardin said. “I never underestimate President Zelenskyy. We thought that Russia would take over Ukraine in a matter of days or weeks, and Ukraine is a strong country today. It’s militarily holding back Russia.”

Zelenskyy later huddled with a bipartisan group of House lawmakers, including Intelligence Committee Chair Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio), Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) and Armed Services Committee Chair Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Ala.).

“We are at a crucial moment in this war,” Zelenskyy said. “That’s why, especially now, we need truly strong pressure and strong positions for Ukraine to force Russia towards peace — and we prepared the urgent plan.”

— Anthony Adragna and Joe Gould, with an assist from Olivia Beavers

 

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MONEY GAMES

Just last week, we broke some news about the growing view that Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) is gearing up to seek a higher perch next Congress — including possibly challenging Majority Leader Rep. Steve Scalise (R-La.).

While scenario is considered more likely if Republicans lose their majority and Johnson is cast aside, others haven’t ruled out a potential clash between the two even if the GOP remains in power.

One key factor in any leadership bid is fundraising, so it caught our eye that Jordan cut the NRCC a $1 million check this week, a person close to Jordan confirmed to us.

That is a good lump of money, though Scalise also happened to announce today that he has given $2 million directly to Republican campaigns. Scalise has also given a hefty chunk of dough to the NRCC this cycle, including announcing a $1 million transfer to the NRCC at the last political conference in late September.

Separately, Jordan has about $10 million socked away in his campaign account, per FEC reports, which has some Republicans wondering whether he might dole some of it out to colleagues in the coming weeks to help with a potential leadership bid.

— Olivia Beavers

HUDDLE HOTDISH

First in Inside Congress: The Planned Parenthood Action Fund is endorsing Democratic Missouri Senate nominee Lucas Kunce. President and CEO Alexis McGill Johnson said in a statement that Kunce is “the only candidate in the Senate race that will fight for the future the majority of Missouri voters want for themselves.” An abortion rights measure is on the Missouri ballot, which has some Democrats feeling hopeful about their chances in the Show Me State against Sen. Josh Hawley (R), but it’s still an uphill climb for Democrats.

No votes, no tie, still service. Your host caught sight of lawmakers on the Hill, like Lindsey Graham and Roger Marshall, sporting the open-collar look on Thursday.

Former Speaker John Boehner and the Ohio GOP delegation are holding a fundraiser for Rep. Bob Latta (R-Ohio), who is in a competitive race to lead the Energy and Commerce Committee following the retirement of Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.). This event is expected to raise $200,000 and comes as Latta has transferred $2.2 million to the NRCC and GOP candidates this cycle.

A local Colorado interview with Lauren Boebert got testy at times, with the congresswoman at one point asking, “Oh, you're going to fact-check me during the interview?” (The answer: Yes.)

Department of Good News: Tim Burchett found his dog!

Longtime Capitol Hill reporter Warren Rojas rounded up “9 of the best restaurants on Capitol Hill” for WaPo (beware, some don’t suit a reporter’s — or Hill staffer’s — salary).

 

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QUICK LINKS 

Only murders in the Capitol? True crime podcast explores seedier side of Congress, from Jim Saksa in CQ Roll Call

Lawmakers stunned as disaster funds left out of stopgap bill, from Andre Picon at POLITICO’s E&E News

How Republicans Mainstreamed Majorie Taylor Greene Through Fundraising, from Joe Perticone in The Bulwark

Republican senator backs judiciary workplace protections bill after Alaska judge scandal, from Nate Raymond in Reuters

Nebraska’s ‘blue dot’ district suddenly at the center of election, from Paul Kane at The Washington Post

George Helmy worked for senators. Now he is one (for a little while), from Jackie Wang at Roll Call

Battleground House Dems in New York call for Eric Adams’ resignation, from Timmy Facciola

TRANSITIONS 

Seiichiro Nakai is now press secretary for Sen. Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.). He previously was deputy press secretary for Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.).

Nick Baker is now digital director for Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas). He previously was a senior investigative reporter at Young America’s Foundation

Cheyenne Range is now deputy chief of staff for Rep. Frederica Wilson (D-Fla.). She previously was deputy director of government relations of Bread for the World.

TOMORROW IN CONGRESS

The House meets at 10 a.m. for a pro forma session.

The Senate meets at 10 a.m. for a pro forma session.

FRIDAY AROUND THE HILL

*crickets*

Trivia

WEDNESDAY’S ANSWER: Ryan Dalbec was first to identify Miami University of Ohio, Stanford University, the University of Delaware, the US Naval Academy and University of Michigan as the homes of both Super Bowl winning quarterbacks and presidents.

TODAY’S QUESTION: Who was the last figure successfully convicted and removed from office in a Senate impeachment trial?

The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Inside Congress. Send your answers to insidecongress@politico.com.

GET INSIDE CONGRESS emailed to your phone each evening.

 

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