Thursday, September 26, 2024

A Textbook “Gift Gap” Trade Unfolding In DKS

Trade of the Day Wake-Up Watchlist

"The Gift Gap is like finding a $100 bill on the ground - it's free money if you know where to look. DKS just flashed the signal."

Bryan Bottarelli, Head Trade Tactician, Monument Traders Alliance

Bryan Bottarelli

Editor's Note:

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Don't let this opportunity slip away. Your next profitable "Gift Gap" trade awaits!

-Ryan Fitzwater, Publisher

________________________________

Make no mistake about it…

Buying the dip can be a very effective strategy.

However, most traders mess it up.

Today I'm going to walk you through one of my favorite dip buying strategies called The Gift Gap, and share with you a worthy watchlist candidate to apply this strategy.

The Gift Gap Edge: A Powerful Dip-Buying Strategy

The Gift Gap strategy zeroes in on a particular market inefficiency: the tendency for price gaps to get filled.

When a stock drops significantly, creating a gap in the chart, we've found there's a high probability that the gap will be filled. That's our market inefficiency.

My team and I have put The Gift Gap strategy through rigorous backtesting, and the results are nothing short of stunning:

  • Over a 10-year period, we analyzed 3,735 gap down events.
  • When targeting a 25% gap fill, our win rate was a staggering 97.11%.
  • That means out of those 3,735 trades, 3,627 were winners.
  • The average winning trade lasted just 4 days.
  • Even more remarkably, 80% of these winning trades hit our target within the first two days.

The Gift Gap Edge in Action: Dicks Sporting Goods (DKS)

 

Now, let's apply our Gift Gap strategy to a real-world example: Dicks Sporting Goods (DKS). This stock recently experienced a significant gap down, presenting an ideal opportunity for our approach.

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Here are the specifics of the DKS setup:

The Gap Event:

  • Date: September 3, 2023 (following Q2 earnings)
  • Gap size: From $232 down to $210, a $22 drop (9.48%)

Current Situation:

  • Current trading price: $216 and change
  • Potential gap fill target: $230

This scenario aligns perfectly with our Gift Gap strategy.

Here's why:

Gap Size and Fill Potential:

The 9.48% drop created a clear gap in the chart. Our strategy typically targets a 25% gap fill, which in this case would be around $215.50.

Interestingly, DKS has already surpassed this initial target, trading at $216+.

Upside Potential:

With the stock showing strength and already filling more than 25% of the gap, there's a strong possibility it could continue towards a full gap fill at $230.

In fact, the current price action suggests DKS wants to make an attempt to fill the entire gap.

Time Frame:

While our backtesting showed that 80% of winning trades hit our target within the first two days, DKS is still showing upward momentum beyond this initial window.

This extended movement aligns with our overall strategy of gaps wanting to be filled, and I believe it can get to $230 by the end of October.

Profit Targets:

Given the current price of $216+, consider setting multiple profit targets:

Partial profit at $220 (50% gap fill)

Another partial at $225 (75% gap fill)

Final target at $230 (full gap fill)

This DKS setup exemplifies why the Gift Gap strategy can be so powerful. It's identified a high-probability trade with a clear entry point, defined risk, and multiple profit targets.

Your Action Plan

  1. The Gift Gap strategy capitalizes on the tendency for price gaps to be filled.
  2. Our extensive backtesting shows a 97.11% win rate when targeting a 25% gap fill.
  3. DKS presents a textbook setup for this strategy, with a clear gap and strong upward momentum.
  4. Always implement proper risk management, even with high-probability setups.
  5. Consider using multiple profit targets to maximize the potential of the trade.

P.S. Want to see The Gift Gap strategy in action?

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On Wednesday, October 2 at 2 p.m. ET, I'll be hosting a live training session where you'll learn:

  • How to Trade Short-Term "Gift Gaps" in the Stock Market
  • Why our backtests showed rare gains up to 114% in 19 days, 235% in 11 days, and 452% in 8 days
  • LIVE Gift Gap trade setups, including names and ticker symbols
  • Why high market volatility is BETTER for Gift Gap traders

Some of my top students have seen incredible results. Like David, who took $20,000 and turned it into $185,000 in one year. Or Mo, who transformed a $25,000 portfolio into over $225,000 in just four months.

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