| | | | |  | | By Eric Bazail-Eimil and Joe Gould | |  Hezbollah members shout slogans as they carry the coffins of Hezbollah commanders Ibrahim Kobeisi and Hussein Ezzedine during their funeral procession in Beirut, Lebanon's southern suburb on Sept. 25, 2024. | Hassan Ammar/AP | With help from Phelim Kine, Connor O’Brien and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric The U.S. and France are pushing a cease-fire proposal between Israel and the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah to avert war at Israel’s northern border with Lebanon. But don’t expect to see Israel agree to a cease-fire with Hezbollah anytime soon. All indications are that Israel is continuing apace with its strategy of escalating the conflict with the aim of ultimately de-escalating tensions. Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU wrote on X this morning that he “did not even respond” to the U.S. and French-led proposal and that he has “instructed the IDF to continue the fighting with full force.” Part of the problem, says former Middle East peace negotiator AARON DAVID MILLER, is that the only party that's in a hurry is the Biden administration, which is eager to avoid a major war, especially ahead of the U.S. election. None of the other key stakeholders — Netanyahu, Hamas leader YAHYA SINWAR and Hezbollah leader HASSAN NASRALLAH — benefit from a deal right now. Sinwar, he says, wants an expanded conflict to relieve pressure from Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Nasrallah is staring down a major threat from Israel following the pager and walkie-talkie attacks and the wave of Israeli airstrikes against Hezbollah targets and can't back down. And Netanyahu faces little pressure from an Israeli public that seems supportive of Hezbollah as his poll numbers increase in the wake of tactical successes. The Biden administration “needed to do something, especially given the focus at UNGA” said Miller, who’s now a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “But tethering the Gaza and Lebanon fronts together is a very heavy lift, and it's very hard for me to believe that this can succeed.” A cease-fire also wouldn’t serve Israel’s strategic interests, argued JONATHAN RUHE, who leads foreign policy work at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America. In his view, a cease-fire likely wouldn’t ensure that residents of the country’s north could quickly return to their homes. Ruhe added that “a viable cease-fire isn't just both sides ceasing fire” and would require a full withdrawal of Hezbollah forces from the Lebanese border consistent with a 2006 U.N. Security Council resolution. “I haven't seen realistic public proposals for how that's going to be accomplished,” Ruhe said. The worry, both Ruhe and Miller warn, is that Israel could get ensnared in a long-term military conflict in Lebanon like the one it endured between 1982 and 2000. During that war, Israel spent three years actively fighting off insurgencies operating in a security zone it administered in Lebanon’s southern provinces before the conflict morphed into a 15-year guerrilla war between Hezbollah and the Israel Defense Forces. Israel’s embassy in Washington did not respond to a request for comment. White House spokesperson KARINE JEAN-PIERRE said at a briefing today that U.S. officials are continuing to discuss the cease-fire proposal with their Israeli counterparts and that the release of the proposal was coordinated with the Israeli government. Yet the ghosts of the South Lebanon war are clearly on the minds of U.S. policy makers, as they work to avoid an expansion of the conflict days before the election. On MSNBC’s Morning Joe today, Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN argued that the legacy of that conflict should dispel any notion that a full-blown war would allow people to return to their homes faster. He also emphasized that the goal of a cease-fire is to ensure Hezbollah poses less of a threat to Israel’s security going forward. “If we can get an agreement that at least gets them off the border, people will have more confidence, and they can get about their lives in their own country. I think what you’re hearing clearly is the world wants to see it move in that direction,” Blinken said.
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Block 4 modernization is the most significant evolution of F-35 capabilities to date, including increased missile capacity, advanced electronic warfare capabilities and improved target recognition. Learn more. | | | | | ZELENSKYY RETURNS TO DC: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY arrived at the White House earlier this afternoon for a meeting with President JOE BIDEN as he tries to rally support in Washington. His visit to the White House follows a meeting with key senators on Capitol Hill this morning. Sen. JOHN HOEVEN (R-N.D.) told our own CONNOR O’BRIEN that Zelenskyy’s pitch to lawmakers centered less on providing Ukraine with more money, and focused instead on more capabilities within what Congress allocated. Hoeven added that his asks for more long-range missiles, more F-16s and the authority to hit targets in Russian territory were the “heart and soul” of Zelenskyy’s “victory plan.” After his meeting with Biden, where the two leaders will discuss the terms of the White House’s new surge of aid to Kyiv, Zelenskyy will meet with Vice President KAMALA HARRIS. ICYMI: Facing GOP attacks, Zelenskyy looks to sell White House on victory by Eric, Joe and our own JONATHAN LEMIRE, PAUL McLEARY and Connor. KENYA PLEDGES HAITI DEPLOYMENT: Kenyan President WILLIAM RUTO pledged at the U.N. General Assembly that Nairobi will deploy 2,500 troops to Haiti as part of its multinational security support mission to thwart gang violence in the Caribbean country, even if more international support fails to materialize. Ruto, who recently visited Port-au-Prince, told the assembly that “Kenyan police officers have successfully pacified cities, protected key infrastructure, and contributed to overall security in Haiti.” He added that Kenya and Caribbean countries are ready to deploy further resources, but are hindered by a lack of proper equipment and need the international community to step up its financial contributions to the mission. The U.S., Kenya and other supporters of the multinational security support mission are pushing to turn it into a U.N. peacekeeping mission, but as loyal NatSec Daily readers may remember, China is blocking that push at the Security Council. CARDIN’S LEBANON CANDOR: Even though Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair BEN CARDIN (D-Md.), hadn’t immediately been briefed on the White House’s much-discussed Lebanon ceasefire proposal, he says he’s for it in concept. “These wars could very well escalate until an all-out war, which is something we have to try to prevent,” Cardin said. By Cardin's reckoning, the plan could be a positive step toward halting the violence and allowing Israelis near the Lebanese border to safely return to their homes. Plus, he also seemed to back Israel potentially occupying parts of southern Lebanon à la the war of the 1980s. “The issue in Lebanon is to have a safe area so that the Israelis can return to the north,” he said. “It would seem to me that a cease-fire could accomplish that. [The Israelis] need to have a safety area in southern Lebanon that Hezbollah doesn't have control over. It looks like they have been able to do some of that militarily already.” ADAMS’ TURKEY TROUBLES: New York City Mayor ERIC ADAMS is facing federal charges related to his campaign’s ties to Turkey, our own ERICA ORDEN and JOE ANUTA report. The indictment against Adams alleges that the then-mayoral candidate accepted free flights on Turkish Airlines and illegal campaign contributions and perks from Turkish government officials. In exchange, Adams used his position to fast-track the opening of Ankara’s consulate in Manhattan. Adams is just the most recent politician accused of trading access and influence for nice gifts — remember the gold bars in Sen. BOB MENENDEZ’s house — but he might be the first we’ve heard to allegedly cash in via Turkish Airlines flights. Here at NatSec Daily, we don’t endorse government corruption, but given how expensive airfare is these days, and how nice those seats look in the ads, we can see the allure. IT’S THURSDAY. Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1
| | | |   | | | | | O’BRIEN OFFERS A WARNING: DONALD TRUMP is likely to launch a trade war against Europe “on day one” of his administration if he wins the presidential election in November, his former national security adviser ROBERT O’BRIEN said Thursday. As our own PHELIM KINE writes in, O’Brien, who emphasized he is out of government and doesn’t speak for Trump, told a crowd at an American Enterprise Institute event that “on day one of the Trump administration…you’re going to see a trade war” against Europe. “The European Commission better hope like heck that Donald Trump loses and Kamala Harris is the next president because if he doesn’t, on day one there's serious problems,” he continued. The comments from O’Brien, widely seen as a contender to reprise his role as national security adviser or occupy another major foreign policy job in a second Trump administration, are likely to exacerbate anxieties on the other side of the Atlantic that the U.S-E.U. relationship may face renewed strains if Trump wins in November.
| | | ISRAELI WATER HACKS: Israeli hacktivists claimed they launched a major cyberattack on Lebanese water infrastructure yesterday, but experts say to take it with a grain of salt. As our friends at Morning Cybersecurity report (for Pros!), hacktivist group WeRedEvils posted on Telegram that they infiltrated 14 water stations in southern Lebanon and Beirut, claiming to target systems serving Hezbollah’s network of underground headquarters. The group also claims to have used “accurate internal intelligence” to identify and access these facilities, then altering chlorine levels in the water supply — a change that could have severe implications given its potential as a chemical weapon in high concentrations. The IDF and Israel’s embassy in Washington did not respond to Morning Cybersecurity’s requests for comment. If the claims are true, the attack would raise serious questions about the rules of engagement. As our own JOSEPH GEDEON writes, manipulating chlorine levels is particularly concerning as it transforms a normally harmless water treatment chemical into a chemical weapon. Yet not everyone is convinced that you should automatically believe the hacktivists. Foundation for Defense of Democracies fellow ARI BEN AM told Joseph that “WeRedEvils are a bunch of grifters.” He added, “They consistently post uncorroborated proof of attacks, usually low quality/blurry images that don't prove a successful penetration, and do so to raise their online profile.”
| | MISSILES MISS OUT IN NEXT CR: On the heels of Congress passing a continuing resolution through Dec. 20, the Army’s acquisition chief told our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) another CR would derail its important missile buying plans. DOUGLAS BUSH, assistant Army secretary for acquisition, logistics and technology, said a new CR would affect two critical long-range fires programs: the planned production ramp-up for the Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System and the rollout of the Precision Strike Missile, which is set to replace the Army Tactical Missile System. “Both would be a big deal for the service,” he said, noting that GMLRS production is set to increase to 14,000 units per year by 2026, up from 10,000. The delays caused by a longer CR, he added, “are already happening because we’ve been anticipating it.” The PrSM, with a range exceeding 300 miles, will play a vital role in U.S. Army operations in the Indo-Pacific and other regions. The Army is just beginning to scale up PrSM production and is relying on its availability in larger quantities in the coming years, Bush said.
| | TLAIB JOINS BLINKEN RESIGNATION CALLS: Add Rep. RASHIDA TLAIB (D-Mich.) to the list of progressives calling on Blinken to resign over reports he rejected internal government findings about Israel blocking aid to Gaza. As our own NICHOLAS WU reports, the Michigan Democrat wrote on X that Blinken “lied. People went hungry, and some died. He needs to resign now.” The comments from Tlaib, the only Palestinian American member of Congress, come as pro-Palestinian groups have sharply criticized America’s top diplomat after a ProPublica investigation found that Blinken delivered a toned-down message to Congress in May that contradicted internal government findings that Israel had blocked deliveries of humanitarian aid into Gaza amid the Israel-Hamas war. The internal determinations could have forced the State Department to block U.S. military aid to Israel, pursuant to U.S. laws which require an end to weapons shipments to countries that block U.S.-backed humanitarian aid. The State Department has contested ProPublica’s reporting, telling the outlet that it applied pressure to Israel to facilitate aid deliveries and that “Israel subsequently took steps to facilitate increased humanitarian access and aid flow into Gaza.”
| | ABBAS PRAISES PROTESTERS: The head of the Palestinian Authority thanked U.S. protesters for standing in solidarity with Palestinians amid Israel’s war in the Gaza Strip and escalating violence in the West Bank in his speech before the U.N. General Assembly today. As our own MONA ZHANG reports, Palestinian Authority President MAHMOUD ABBAS criticized the U.S., saying “we regret the largest democracy in the world, obstructed three times [a] draft resolution to the Security Council demanding Israel observe a cease-fire.” Abbas also offered praise for pro-Palestinian demonstrators who have called for an end to unconditional U.S. support for Israel during its military operations in the Gaza Strip. “The American people are marching in the streets, in these demonstrations, and we are grateful to them,” Abbas said. Abbas’ comments are one of the latest critiques the U.S. has faced over its support for Israel at this year’s U.N. General Assembly high-level week in New York.
| | | | — NATHAN LUKE WILLIAMS is now senior adviser for strategic initiatives in the Office of International Affairs at the Department of Homeland Security. He most recently was director for refugees at the National Security Council.
| | — ALEX PERRY, POLITICO: ‘All must be beheaded’: Revelations of atrocities at French energy giant’s African stronghold — NATHAN HEATH, War on the Rocks: Be Kennedy, not Kissinger: What Cold War competition in Guinea and Angola can teach us about U.S. Influence in Western Africa
| | — Wilson Center's Nuclear Proliferation International History Project, 10 a.m.: Perspectives on researching and practicing anti-nuclear activism: How academics and activists think about disarmament — Hudson Institute, 10 a.m.: A book discussion on "Purpose and Power: U.S. Grand Strategy from the Revolutionary Era to the Present." — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 11 a.m.: Japan in the Indian Ocean: Toward a stronger Indo-Pacific strategy — Wilson Center's Mexico Institute, 11 a.m.: National Guard reform: Implications on security policy and US-MX cooperation. — Hudson Institute, 12 p.m.: Resisting repression in Venezuela — Council on Foreign Relations, 12:30 p.m.: A discussion with EU High Commissioner JOSEP BORRELL on "the challenges facing the European Union, its role in supporting Ukraine against Russia, and transatlantic relations with the United States" — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 3 p.m.: A discussion on Army unmanned aircraft systems Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who does not see a cease-fire with Eric as consistent with her strategic interests. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is working to de-escalate editorial tensions on this newsletter.
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