📉 Trump's new low

Plus: Boehner's Pelosi tears | Wednesday, December 14, 2022

Open in app View in browser   Presented By Walmart   Axios Sneak Peek By Alayna Treene, Hans Nichols and Zachary Basu · Dec 14, 2022 Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 932 words ... 3.5 minutes.     1 big thing: Trump bleeds GOP base support Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios   A raft of new polls shows former President Trump is losing juice among core Republican voters — a rare but unmistakable drop in base support that would jeopardize his 2024 comeback bid, Axios' Josh Kraushaar writes. Why it matters: Trump famously boasted in 2016 that he "could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn't lose voters." Over the past seven years, Trump's iron grip on the GOP base led many political observers to conclude he may have been right. Driving the news: A new USA Today/Suffolk poll found Trump's favorability among Republicans dropped from 75% in October to 64% in December — below the 70% threshold generally viewed as a Mendoza line for support within a candidate's own party. A Quinnipiac poll out this evening puts Trump's favorability among GOP voters right at 70% — his lowest mark since March 2016. And a new Wall Street Journal poll has him at 74% — above the Mendoza line, but a 11% decline since March. Equally troubling for the former president: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is dominating him in a hypothetical head-to-head primary, leading by 23 points (56%–33%) in the Suffolk poll and 14 points (52%–38%) in the WSJ poll. The big picture: The conventional wisdom that Trump is the favorite to be the GOP nominee is no longer borne out by the polling data. It's a stunning fall from the heights of the Trump presidency, when his approval rating among Republicans peaked at 95% and remained above 90% for much of 2020. Even in the aftermath of the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, Trump's support from Republicans in most polls hovered above 70%. Between the lines: There's an understandable reluctance to downplay Trump's political prospects, given how often he's pulverized the conventional wisdom. But his candidates' abysmal record in the midterms and his own weak showing against Biden in public polls make him damaged goods. The reason Trump has gone to such lengths to deny the 2020 election results is because he can't allow himself to be seen as a loser — it's political poison with the base. Reality check: Even if Republicans appear to be moving past Trump, they're not moving past his anti-establishment brand of politics. The WSJ poll finds Trump crushing former Vice President Mike Pence, 63%–28%, in a head-to-head matchup. Share this story.     2. ⭐ New star-power strategy Raskin speaks to U.S. Capitol Police Chief J. Thomas Manger during a ceremony to award the Congressional Gold Medal to Capitol Police. Photo: Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images   Democrats are on the cusp of picking one of their highest-profile members, Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), to lead their defense against Republican investigations on the House Oversight Committee, Axios' Andrew Solender and Sophia Cai report. Why it matters: The media-savvy Jan. 6 committee member and former Trump impeachment manager would be leapfrogging two more senior members for the role — a significant shakeup to kick off a new generation of House Democratic leadership. Raskin's status as the favorite underscores the Oversight Committee's transformation from a relatively low-key panel to a plum assignment that leads congressional probes and drives considerable media coverage. The outgoing chair, Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-N.Y.), was picked for her seniority. But the 76-year-old's performance atop the panel left some Democrats seeking a more dynamic replacement to spar with Republicans. Driving the news: Raskin received 30 votes at a meeting of Democrats' Steering Committee today, beating out Virginia Rep. Gerry Connolly (19 votes) and Massachusetts Rep. Stephen Lynch (7 votes), according to multiple sources in the room. Yes, but: The position still has to be approved by a vote of the full caucus, which Raskin himself acknowledges is not just a rubber stamp. What they're saying: Several Steering Committee members who spoke to Axios attributed the lopsided vote to Raskin's national reputation. "Mr. Raskin, in the last couple of years, has been very much the face of the party, and very much willing to engage Republicans in a very effective way," said Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.), co-chair of the Steering Committee. Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.) chalked the result up Raskin being "so high-profile when it comes to oversight ... such a powerful voice, nationally." A Democratic aide put it more bluntly: "He's famous and popular!" Keep reading.     3. 💰 Gen-Z Dem to donate SBF funds Via Twitter Rep.-elect Maxwell Frost (D-Fla.), the first member of Generation Z to be elected to Congress, tweeted that he would donate a campaign contribution from disgraced FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried — calling it "stolen money." Why it matters: As we detailed in last night's Sneak Peek, Bankman-Fried was charged with campaign finance violations (among many other crimes) after briefly becoming one of the country's most prolific political donors. His giving to Democratic causes over the past two years was topped only by that of billionaire George Soros. Bankman-Fried has said he also gave to Republicans, but in a way that hid the donations to avoid negative media coverage. Between the lines: A Washington Post analysis found Bankman-Fried donated $963,000 to Frost through the Protect Our Future PAC, which he bankrolled with $27 million to support candidates aligned with the goals of effective altruism.     A message from Walmart Walmart named one of LinkedIn's Top 20 Companies to Grow a Career     Patrick Joseph began his Walmart career as a pharmacy intern. Today, he oversees 11 pharmacies and eight vision centers — and his story is just one of many. See how Walmart's focus on mentorship and advancement helps create more stories like Patrick's.     4. 🖼️ Pelosi's portrait Photo: Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images Former House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) delivered an emotional tribute to Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) during the unveiling of her portrait on Capitol Hill today. "My girls told me, 'Tell the speaker how much we admire her,'" Boehner said, choking up as he read out the words. "No other speaker of the House in the modern era, Republican or Democrat, has wielded the gavel with such authority or with such consistent results. You are one tough cookie." Watch the speech. Pelosi gets a kiss from Boehner after his speech. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images     A message from Walmart Walmart is investing $1 billion in career training and development     At Walmart, a first promotion is often just the first of many — 75% of management started as hourly associates. That's just one reason why Walmart was named one of LinkedIn's Top Companies to Grow a Career in 2022. Learn how Walmart's mentorship and training help associates advance in their careers.   📬 Thanks for reading tonight. This newsletter was edited by Zachary Basu and copy edited by Brad Bonhall. Are you a fan of this email format? Your essential communications — to staff, clients and other stakeholders — can have the same style. Axios HQ, a powerful platform, will help you do it.   Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. If you're interested in advertising, learn more here. Sponsorship has no influence on editorial content. Axios, 3100 Clarendon B‌lvd, Arlington VA 22201   You received this email because you signed up for newsletters from Axios. Change your preferences or unsubscribe here.   Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now to get Axios in your inbox.   Follow Axios on social media: