Wednesday, December 14, 2022

🗳️ Dems' new worry

Plus: Sports milestones | Wednesday, December 14, 2022
 
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By Mike Allen · Dec 14, 2022

Happy Wednesday! Smart Brevity™ count: 1,050 words ... 4 minutes. Edited by Noah Bressner.

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1 big thing: C-suite anxiety
Data: Deloitte CFO Signals. Chart: Axios Visuals

As the global economy roils from what feels like a relentless series of economic and geopolitical shocks — the era of the polycrisis — executives at some of the world's biggest companies are increasingly anxious.

  • Why it matters: Nervous business leaders are proceeding more cautiously. That often means taking fewer chances, pulling back on investment and hiring; the kinds of actions that could trigger the downturn they fear, Emily Peck writes for Axios Markets.

What's happening: Companies haven't been this risk-averse since the pandemic started, according to a survey of CFOs, conducted by Deloitte, released Wednesday morning.

  • The aversion to risk means that companies are less willing to do big deals, increase capital investment or take on more leverage, Steve Gallucci, Deloitte's Global and US CFO Program Leader, tells Axios.

Looking inside their companies, CFOs are worried about hiring in a tight labor market.

  • Looking externally, they're nervous about geopolitics — war, supply chain shocks, climate.

The bottom line: In his latest memo, famed investor Howard Marks argues that we're living through a sea change in the investment world — a complete transformation.

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2. 🥊 2022: Tech eras end

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

 

The big noise in tech this year was the sound of trends dying and eras concluding, writes Scott Rosenberg, Axios managing editor for tech.

  • Tech's 20-year run of mad growth — fueled by easy money — came to a crashing halt in 2022 as the Fed raised interest rates to fight inflation.
  • That left large tech companies scrambling to lay off workers, and startups desperately hoarding their remaining cash.

Why it matters: The industry hasn't seen anything like this since the turn-of-the-millennium's dotcom bust.

The era of social media seemed to expire in front of our eyes, too.

  • TikTok's dominance among younger users suggested an online future focused less on one's personal network and more on content selected by a fiendishly efficient algorithm to snare your attention.
  • Facebook, now Meta, doubled down on a 3D metaverse future and restructured its news feed to be more like TikTok.
  • Twitter sold itself to Elon Musk. As he fired more than half the company's staff, many users held premature death vigils for a service they feared would abruptly crash — but Twitter's end is more likely to come via a long, slow decline.

The techlash's final throes also played out in 2022:

  • A long-term effort by the U.S. government to rein in tech's giants started with thunderous Hill hearings and ended in legislative paralysis. Congress didn't pass any significant new laws curtailing the tech industry's power.
  • The states and the Supreme Court could still make life hard for these giants. But tech leaders worry less about government action than about the rise of new competitors, and mass changes in user behavior.
Sam Bankman-Fried is escorted out of court in Nassau, Bahamas, yesterday. Photo: Dante Carrer/Reuters

The cryptocurrency boom was another big tech trend that 2022 halted in its tracks.

  • Crypto's "winter" began with the market collapse last spring — and deepened with the FTX implosion this fall.

🔮 Bitcoin believers and blockchain enthusiasts still predict that another spring awaits. Many observers see only more ruin ahead.

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3. Living history

President Biden said as he signed the Respect for Marriage Act, which codifies federal recognition of same-sex marriage, protecting the right against future Supreme Court action:

"This law and the love it defends strike a blow against hate in all its forms ... And that's why this law matters to every single American."
Photo: Kevin Lamarque/Reuters

Above: Cyndi Lauper sang "True Colors" for the South Lawn crowd of thousands of people, including lawmakers and activists.

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4. ⚽ 1,000 words
Photo: Gustavo Garello/AP

In downtown Buenos Aires, Argentina soccer fans celebrate their team's victory over Croatia yesterday to reach the World Cup final.

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5. 🗳️ Midterm data: Young voters stray from Dems
Data: AP VoteCast. Chart: Tory Lysik/Axios Visuals

Young voters showed signs in November's midterms that their enthusiasm for Democrats may be waning, AP reports from its VoteCast survey of the electorate:

  • Voters under 30 went 53% for Democratic House candidates compared with 41% for Republican candidates.
  • Support for Dems was down from 2020, when voters 18-29 backed Joe Biden over Donald Trump, 61% to 36%.
  • In 2018, when Democrats used a midterm surge to retake control of the House, younger voters went 64% for the party vs. 34% for the GOP.

Between the lines: The trend line for younger voters could make it harder for Dems to maintain the coalition of Black people, women, college-educated voters, city dwellers and suburbanites that has buoyed the party since Trump's election.

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6. 📜 Time capsule

Front pages of today's N.Y. Times, Washington Post

 

N.Y. Times Quote of the Day ... Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, on the likelihood the Fed will keep interest rates relatively high despite inflation slowing more sharply than expected in November:

"They're going to be very cautious. They've had their fingers burned."
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7. John Lewis stamp in '23

Image: USPS

 

Former Rep. John Lewis (D-Ga.), the late civil-rights icon, will be honored next year on a stamp featuring a photo taken by Marco Grob while on assignment for TIME in 2013.

  • For more than a year, Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) lobbied the panel that makes recommendations for new stamp subjects, Axios Atlanta's Emma Hurt reports.

Get Axios Atlanta.

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8. 🏒 🏀 Milestones
Photo: Charles Rex Arbogast/AP

The Washington Capitals' Alex Ovechkin became the third NHL player to reach 800 career goals when he scored three times in Chicago last night, touching off a wild celebration.

  • Above: Ovechkin, 37, holds his 798th, 799th and 800th career-goal pucks in the locker room, next to fans' hats for his 29th career hat trick (three goals in one game).
Photo: Andrew Kenney/NBA via AP

The NBA announced yesterday that its MVP award has been renamed the Michael Jordan Trophy — 23.6 inches tall and 23.6 pounds, for Jordan's jersey number (23) and NBA championships (6):

  • "From the bottom to its top, the patina of the trophy grows more burnished — 'raw to refined' — signifying the MVP's hard work and progression."

Go deeper: Inside the NBA's process on changing trophies.

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