Wednesday, December 14, 2022

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Inflation continues its decline...
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Morning Brew

Revela

Good morning. Lionel Messi, one of soccer's all-time greats, is now just one win away from the single prize that's eluded him for his entire career: a World Cup trophy. Argentina thumped Croatia 3–0 to advance to the finals, where they'll play the winner of today's semifinal match between powerhouse France and Morocco, the Cinderella story of the tournament.

Sam Klebanov, Matty Merritt, Max Knoblauch, Neal Freyman

MARKETS

Nasdaq

11,256.81

S&P

4,019.65

Dow

34,108.64

10-Year

3.508%

Bitcoin

$17,752.83

Coinbase

$38.69

*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 4:00am ET. Here's what these numbers mean.

  • Markets: So far, so good during this two-day trial by fire for the stock market. All three indexes closed higher after a cooler-than-expected inflation report dropped yesterday morning, and now investors will anxiously await the Fed's interest rate decision later today. Coinbase, though, is taking on water as a maelstrom hits the crypto industry: The exchange's shares hit an all-time low yesterday.
 

ECONOMY

This is what past-peak inflation looks like

A balloon that's carrying money is popped, signaling lower inflation Francis Scialabba

Like you at work right now, inflation is mailing it in to end the year.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported yesterday that inflation continued to slow its roll in November, as US consumer prices rose just 0.1% from the previous month. Compared to a year ago, prices were up 7.1% in November, which is actually the fifth consecutive month of declining annual inflation.

The inflation figures were lower than economists predicted, furthering the relatively cheery mood ahead of today's Federal Reserve interest rate announcement. Plateauing consumer prices are a signal to the Fed that it can start to chill with historically massive rate hikes that have been slowing the economy. And it plans to: Chair Jerome Powell is expected to increase interest rates by 50 basis points today, lower than the 75 bps increases announced at the previous four meetings.

What got cheaper (or more expensive)?

As always, inflation varied for different products and services.

  • Bad news if you're a salad-guzzling Red Wings fan: Produce and sports tickets were among the goods with the highest monthly price increases.
  • Meanwhile, buying health insurance and heating your home with natural gas got cheaper—though energy costs overall remain eye-poppingly expensive.

Prices for physical goods continued to decline (used cars, the poster child of Covid-era inflation, are now more than 3% cheaper than they were a year ago). Sure seems like the age of pandemic-related shortages is finally over.

But prices for rents continued to creep up, proving that inflation is still a long way from coming back to normal levels. The good news? Private sector data suggests that housing prices have already started to decline...it just hasn't shown up in the government's reports yet.

Big picture: Inflation is like a flight—it gets up to cruising altitude quickly, but the "final descent" seems to take forever. A few days ago, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen predicted "much lower" inflation…but not until the end of next year.—SK

        

WORLD

Tour de headlines

Sandy Hook memorial Robert Nickelsberg/Getty Images

It's been 10 years since Sandy Hook. Today marks one decade since 20 first graders and six adults were killed in the shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Connecticut. In the 10 years since the massacre, gun violence prevention advocates say they've seen lawmakers take meaningful action: States have passed 525 "significant gun safety laws" in the last decade, according to the Giffords Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence. And the federal government passed the first gun safety law in 30 years this June. Other policies they've sought, such as a ban on assault rifles, remain elusive.

The Respect for Marriage Act is now law. President Biden signed a bipartisan marriage equality bill that codifies protections for same-sex and interracial marriages. The new law reflects the dramatic shift in public opinion on the issue of gay marriage within the last 20 years: In a 2004 Gallup poll, 42% of Americans supported same-sex marriage; now it's 71%, the highest it's ever been.

Skin cancer vaccine shows early promise. Preliminary results released yesterday indicate that an experimental mRNA cancer vaccine from Moderna was effective against melanoma when combined with Merck's immunotherapy known as Keytruda. The combo reduced the risk of recurrence or death by 44% compared to those who received Keytruda alone, the companies said. Vaccines featuring mRNA technology—used in the most common Covid vaccines—are currently being tested against various cancers, but none have received FDA approval yet. Melanoma accounts for the majority of skin cancer deaths, according to the American Cancer Society.

TOGETHER WITH REVELA

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CRYPTO

Probably won't be an FTX Super Bowl ad this year

Sam Bankman-Fried arrested Photo Illustration: Dianna "Mick" McDougall, Photo: Tom Williams/Getty Images

A scheduled House Financial Services Committee hearing about the collapse of FTX went ahead yesterday, despite the unexpected arrest of the crypto exchange's former CEO Sam Bankman-Fried in the Bahamas on Monday night. SBF was charged with eight counts, including wire fraud and conspiracy. US Attorney Damian Williams called it "one of the biggest financial frauds in American history."

The House hearing, which featured testimony from current FTX CEO John Ray III, exposed more shocking aspects about how one of crypto's seemingly most promising companies was managed (spoiler tag: badly).

According to Ray, FTX represents one of the worst business failures he's ever seen, and he oversaw the collapse of Enron. Ray testified that the company has an "unprecedented lack of documentation" (i.e., "no record-keeping whatsoever") and that employees even used QuickBooks—software for small businesses that you can straight-up get at Best Buy—to manage the $32 billion company's finances.

But that's not all: There's also the criminal indictment, remember? US prosecutors claim that SBF used customer funds as his "personal piggy bank" for years, and siphoned away the money to plug his hedge fund, buy real estate, and make political donations. Williams, the US Attorney, said that SBF wrongfully made political donations with FTX customer money to "buy bipartisan influence and impact the direction of public policy in Washington."

SBF has admitted to making managerial mistakes, but has denied knowingly committing fraud.—MK

        

ENERGY

Nuclear fusion: You don't have to understand it to know it's a BFD

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

The Department of Energy announced yesterday that scientists at a California lab were able to create a nuclear fusion reaction with a net energy gain. Unfortunately, Hallmark doesn't make a card to commemorate carbon-free scientific advancements—but we'll send an Edible Arrangement.

This is a huge deal: The hope is that nuclear fusion, which produces no carbon or radioactive waste, can be harnessed to provide limitless clean energy for the world and replace fossil fuels. But for decades, this was all just theoretical. Now with proof that it's possible to create a nuclear fusion reaction that actually produces more energy than it requires, scientists can start making that hope a reality.

It's taken a long time and a lot of money to reach this milestone—Western governments and private investors have poured billions into research. In 2020, Congress urged the DOE to get serious about funding fusion in the US so China wouldn't take the lead.

Looking ahead…scientists caution that it will be decades before commercially viable applications work outside the lab. We still need to figure out how to turn the power created in the reaction into electricity to heat homes and power a Big Mouth Billy Bass.—MM

        

GRAB BAG

Key performance indicators

McLovin in Superbad Superbad/Columbia Pictures via Giphy

Stat: If you were born on or after Jan. 1, 2009, you can no longer buy cigarettes in New Zealand, according to a new law passed yesterday. The law isn't just a lifetime ban on youth smoking—it's intended to eventually wipe out tobacco smoking in New Zealand altogether. Not that cigarettes are so popular among Kiwis anyway: More adults vape there than smoke cigarettes as of last month, according to the government.

Quote: "What kind of mystical powers does a Sun Devil have? We've got to consider that."

Weighing a hypothetical battle among Pac-12 mascots during a 2019 press conference was just one of the many hilarious moments provided by Mississippi State football coach Mike Leach, who died yesterday at 61. A football pioneer, Leach will be remembered for his innovative "Air Raid" offense that transformed offensive strategy across the sport. But he was also an entertainer, and after his death was announced yesterday, internet users posted their favorite Leach rants, including this one on weddings and this one on Halloween candy.

Read: Gen Z came to "slay." Their bosses don't know what that means. (Washington Post)

WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

  • Twitter has not paid rent for its San Francisco HQ or its other global offices in recent weeks as it tries to trim costs, the NYT reports.
  • Ford's electric F-150 Lightning was named MotorTrend's truck of the year.
  • United Airlines is making a big bet on air travel, buying 100 Boeing 787 Dreamliners with the option to buy 100 more.
  • Westworld and The Nevers are being removed from HBO Max.

BREW'S BETS

An actually good year-end list: The 2022 Comedy Wildlife Photography Awards.

OK, here's another one: The most ingenious engineering feats of 2022.

Ho-ho-hackers: 'Tis the season for generosity…but maybe keep those passwords to yourself. IT Brew has the keys to keeping your IT security manager jolly all season long.

From Italy to you: Gift yourself (or someone on your list) the finest footwear from Koio. Every pair is handcrafted in Italy and made from sustainable and regenerative leathers. Shop up to 40% off until December 23.*

Starting strong: New to the top job? According to McKinsey & Company, the best CEOs focus their first six to 12 months on personal transition and institutional renewal. Read their four tips to help CEOs succeed.*

*This is sponsored advertising content.

GAMES

The puzzle section

Word Search: Delight in all the novelty nutcrackers in today's puzzle.

Acronym trivia

Yesterday, lawmakers unveiled a bipartisan bill that would ban TikTok in the US called The ANTI-SOCIAL CCP Act, which is actually an acronym for "Averting the National Threat of Internet Surveillance, Oppressive Censorship and Influence, and Algorithmic Learning by the Chinese Communist Party."

In a desperate attempt to be relevant, lawmakers have been increasingly using acronyms to name bills. For this quiz, we'll give you the names of five bills that were allegedly introduced. But two of them are fake—can you spot them?

  1. Getting Adults More Exercise (GAME) Act
  2. Robo Calls Off Phones (Robo COP) Act
  3. Build America Bonds Extension for Rural and Urban Transportation and Highways (BABE RUTH) Act
  4. Arsenic Prevention and Protection from Lead Exposure in Juice (APPLE Juice) Act
  5. Average Viewing of Avatar Time Abridged and Reduced (AVATAR) Act

AROUND THE BREW

Become a personal finance expert

Become a personal finance expert

Start 2023 off right by getting your finances in check. To help out, we've compiled some of our favorite Excel shortcuts to make using Excel for personal finance easier. Check them out.

On The Crazy Ones, hosts Alex, Sophia, and Jesse chat about the brilliance of airline rewards, then move on to discuss end-of-year planning and goal setting. Listen here.

This month, Morning Brew is offering $100 off January's Leadership Accelerator, which kicks off on the 23rd. Apply today using the code HOLIDAY2022 to take advantage.

TV execs discuss the streaming nostalgia trend and how marketers can utilize integrations and branded content in this report from Marketing Brew.

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ANSWER

We made up the AVATAR and GAME Acts.

         

Written by Neal Freyman, Matty Merritt, Sam Klebanov, and Max Knoblauch

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