| EUR/USD: plan for the European session on December 21. COT reports. Euro fell due to UK coronavirus news 2020-12-21 To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need: Last Friday was rather calm and the pair was trading in a horizontal channel. If in the first half of the day there were no signals to enter the market even amid good economic reports on the German economy, then during the US session, the bulls managed to defend support at 1.2226. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart. It clearly shows how bears are testing support at 1.2226 several times, however, it has not been possible to go below this level, which leads to forming a signal to open long positions. Growth from 1.2226 was about 30 points. But, before talking about the pair's further prospects, let's see what happened in the futures market and how the Commitment of Traders (COT) positions changed. Judging by the latest figures, several buyers of the euro decided to close part of their long positions at the end of the year. There are slightly more euro sellers than a week earlier, which indicates expectations of a downward correction closer to the Christmas holidays. The COT report for December 15 showed an increase in short positions and a reduction in long ones. Although buyers of risky assets believe that the bull market will proceed, especially amid expectations of vaccinations in the eurozone, which will begin from December 25 to 27, however, the rush to buy at current highs has obviously decreased. Thus, long non-commercial positions fell from 222,521 to 218,710, while short non-commercial positions increased from 66,092 to 76,877. The total non-commercial net position fell from 156,429 to 141,833 a week earlier. The growth of the delta, which was observed for three consecutive weeks, has stopped, so one can hardly count on the euro's rapid growth at the end of this year. There will be no further major recovery until European leaders negotiate a new trade agreement with Britain. 
Now for the technical picture of the pair. Yesterday's news that the UK is quarantining due to a new type of coronavirus, which has gotten out of control and is spreading much faster than the previous one, has increased pressure on the euro today. At the moment, buyers need to regain control over resistance at 1.2226, as only this will lead to another upward wave for the euro and can sustain the bull market. A breakout and being able to settle above 1.2226 along with testing it from top to bottom produces a good signal to buy EUR/USD in hopes of renewing the next high in the 1.2271 area, where I recommend taking profits. The next target will be the high of 1.2206, which buyers will be aiming for this week. Since important fundamental statistics on the eurozone economy will not be released today, it will hardly be possible to expect that the price would surpass 1.22306. However, if this happens, I recommend raising long positions to the highs of 1.2339 and 1.2417. In case the euro falls in the first half of the day, buyers will have to try hard to protect support at 1.2181. It is best not to rush into long positions there, but to wait until a false breakout appears. I recommend buying EUR/USD immediately on a rebound from a low of 1.2130, counting on a correction by 20-25 points within the day. To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need: Sellers will actively defend resistance at 1.2226, slightly above which the moving averages pass, which is on their side. Forming a false breakout there can produce a new downward correction, and its purpose is to surpass the low of 1.2181, where it is possible to observe when the downtrend market could initially stop today. Being able to settle below this range will open a direct road to the 1.2130 area, where I recommend taking profits. Bad news about the new coronavirus strain will continue to weigh on the euro. The next target will be the 1.2083 area, testing it will mean a reversal of the current upward trend. If the bulls find strength and manage to surpass resistance at 1.2226, I recommend not to rush to sell. The optimal scenario would be a test of the 1.2271 high, where a false breakout will be a signal to sell the euro. I recommend opening short positions immediately on a rebound from the 1.2306 level, counting on the pair's correction down by 15-20 points. 
Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is carried out below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a downward correction for the pair. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart. Bollinger Bands If the euro grows in the afternoon, the average border of the indicator in the 1.2230 area will act as resistance. Description of indicators - Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
- Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
GBP/USD: plan for the European session on December 21. COT reports. Coronavirus in UK could paralyze economy 2020-12-21 To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need: In last Friday's afternoon forecast, I paid attention to a signal to sell the pound and advised you to open short positions from the 1.3539 level, which happened. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how the bears formed a false breakout around 1.3539 and then they returned after testing this level from the bottom up, which caused the pound to fall by more than 50 points. Unfortunately, we fell short of the target in the 1.3448 area. Before examining the technical picture of the pound, let's take a look at what happened in the futures market last week. The demand for the pound has clearly slowed after the continued disagreement between the UK and the EU, but the belief of traders that eventually a trade agreement will be signed at the last moment keeps the pound at current highs. The expectation that the leaders will still be able to make concessions and find the necessary common ground on the key issue of fisheries leaves hope for the pound's succeeding growth. In the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for December 15, there is a decrease in interest in the British pound for both buyers and sellers. Long non-commercial positions decreased from 39,344 to 35,128. At the same time, short non-commercial positions decreased from 33,634 to 31,060. As a result, the non-commercial net position, although it remained positive, dropped to 4,068, against 5,710 versus a week earlier. All this suggests that traders are taking a wait-and-see attitude, although a small preponderance of buyers, even in the current situation, continues to be observed. Given that the UK has imposed tough quarantine measures due to a new strain of coronavirus that has gotten out of control and for which there is no vaccine yet, then expecting the pound to strengthen further at the end of this year will not be the right decision. Only good news on Brexit can bring new players back into the market, betting on GBP/USD growth. 
As for the technical picture of the pair, the pound sharply fell during the Asian session, which indicates how traders are nervous due to the current situation with quarantine measures in the UK, which may lead to economic paralysis. Buyers' task in the first half of the day is to maintain control over the 1.3362 level. Forming a false breakout there will be a signal to open long positions in hopes for the pound to recover in the short term towards the resistance of 1.3434. The main goal is for the pair to surpass it. Testing this level from top to bottom produces an additional entry point into long positions in hopes to reach a high of 1.3525, where I recommend taking profits. The next targets will still be resistances 1.3617 and 1.3690, but they will only be available if we receive good news on the Brexit deal. In case bulls are not active in the 1.3362 support area, it is best not to rush into long deals, but wait until the 1.3290 low has been updated. However, I recommend opening long positions from this level only after forming a false breakout. A larger support level is seen in 1.3246 and 1.2193, where you can buy GBP/USD immediately on a rebound, counting on a correction of 20-30 points. To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need: The lack of important fundamental reports, as well as the lack of news on Brexit, will create some pressure on investors who are intimidated by the strict quarantine measures in the UK. Forming a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.3362 will return pressure to the pair and lead to its continued decline and a test of the next support at 1.3290. Surpassing this level and testing it from the bottom up, similar to last Friday's sales, which I analyzed above, produces a good signal to open short positions in the pound in hopes of pulling it down to lows of 1.3246 and 1.3193, on which the bear market will depend. Bad news on the trade deal will sharply pull down GBP/USD towards the 1.3114 low. If the bulls manage to beat the 1.3362 level, then it is better not to rush with short positions. The optimal scenario for selling the pound will be failure to settle above 1.3434. I recommend opening short positions immediately on a rebound from the high in the 1.3525 area, counting on a downward correction of 25-30 points within the day. Let me remind you that Brexit talks will proceed this week and the deadline for which the parties must agree is on Christmas. 
Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is carried out below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the pound's succeeding decline in the short term. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart. Bollinger Bands If the pair grows, the average border of the indicator in the 1.3455 area will act as a resistance. Description of indicators - Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
- Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
Indicator analysis. Daily review for the EUR/USD currency pair on 21/12/2020 2020-12-21 Last Friday, the pair moved from the pullback level of 85.4% at 1.2275 (yellow dotted line) then went down, testing the historical support level at 1.2234 (blue dotted line). The pair closed the day at 1.2254. Today, the price may continue to move up. News on the market is not expected today. Trend analysis (Figure 1). Today, from the level of 1.2254 (the closing of Friday's daily candle), the market may move down and test the support line of 1.2275 (blue bold line) before moving up with the upper target of 1.2275 which is a pullback level of 85.4% (yellow dotted line). In the case of testing this upper level, we can continue to work up with the target of 1.2462 which is the historical resistance level (blue dotted line). 
Figure 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive Analysis: - Indicator Analysis – up
- Fibonacci Levels – up
- Volumes – up
- Candle Analysis – up
- Trend Analysis – up
- Bollinger Bands – up
- Weekly Chart – up
General conclusion: Today, from the level of 1.2254 (the closing of Friday's daily candle), the price may move down and test the support line of 1.2275 (blue bold line) before continuing to move up with the upper target of 1.2275 which is a pullback level of 85.4% (yellow dotted line). In the case of testing this upper level, we can continue to work up with the target of 1.2462 which is the historical resistance level (blue dotted line). Alternative scenario: From the level of 1.2254 (the closing of the Friday's daily candle), we can work down to reach the pullback level of 14.6% at 1.2093 (red dotted line). In case of testing this level, continue working down with the target of 1.2117 which is a pullback level of 23.6% (red dotted line). Indicator analysis. Daily review on the GBP/USD currency pair for December 21, 2020 2020-12-21 The pair tested the upper limit of the Bollinger line indicator 1.3587 (black dotted line) and then went down. Moving down, the price tested the historical support level of 1.3481 (blue dotted line). Today, the price may continue its downward movement. As per the economic calendar, news is not expected on Monday. Trend analysis (Fig.1). Today, the market from the level of 1.3519 (closing of last Friday's daily candlestick) may continue to move down with the target of 1.3343 - a pullback level of 14.6% (red dotted line). After reaching this lower level, it is possible to work up with the target of 1.3678 - a 76.4% pullback level (yellow dotted line). When testing this line, the continuation of the upward movement is possible with the target of 1.3944 - an 85.4% pullback level (yellow dotted line). 
Figure 1 (Daily Chart). Comprehensive analysis: - Indicator analysis - up
- Fibonacci levels - up
- Volumes - up
- Candlestick analysis - up
- Trend analysis - up
- Bollinger bands - down
- Weekly chart - up
General conclusion: Today, the price may continue to move down with the target of 1.3343 - a 14.6% pullback level (red dotted line). After reaching this lower level, it is possible to work up with the target of 1.3678 - a 76.4% pullback level (yellow dotted line). When testing this line, the continuation of the upward movement is possible with the target of 1.3944 - an 85.4% pullback level (yellow dotted line). Alternative scenario: from the level of 1.3519 (closing of last Friday's daily candlestick), the price may continue to move down with the target of 1.3343 - a 14.6% pullback level (red dotted line). After reaching this lower level, the downward movement may continue with the target of 1.3279 - the lower fractal (daily candlestick from 15.12.2020). Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on December 21? Plan for opening and closing deals on Monday 2020-12-21 Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair 
The EUR/USD pair lost 70 points last night compared to Friday's closing, which is quite a lot in the current conditions. A new and rather powerful fall began after the markets began to work out information about the new coronavirus in the UK. If you remember, at the very beginning of the pandemic in March, the US dollar also rose in price like crazy. This is due to the desire of traders and investors to transfer their assets to the safest currencies from the risky ones. For a long time, the yen and franc were considered the safest, but now the dollar is also worth it. The euro and pound are considered risky. Thus, as soon as the news about a new coronavirus hit the markets, risky currencies immediately began to fall. However, at the moment it is purely corrective for the EUR/USD pair. The rising channel remains, which means that the rising trend is still present. A price rebound from the lower boundary of the channel will be a signal to bring back the upward movement and a buy signal. A strong signal for forming a new downward trend would be when the pair's quotes leave the channel. Unfortunately, novice traders find themselves in a storm once again. For example, it was difficult to predict that a strong fall would begin at night. And in any case, trading down on a strong upward trend is not advisable. No major macroeconomic publications or other events scheduled in the European Union and America today, Monday, December 21st. However, it is already clear which topic will be number one in the last days of the outgoing, crazy 2020. A new mutation of coronavirus when humanity has just barely created a vaccine against its main strain, it's like a blow in the stomach in boxing. If the new strain, which is already called 70% more infectious, also develops as the main COVID-2019, then the planet and humanity will not return to normal for a very long time. The UK is already closing its borders and it is unlikely that this strain will be isolated only there. If it breaks out, then the whole world can get acquainted with the new strain and the word will again be given to virologists and doctors. How long will it take to develop a vaccine against a new strain, and how many such strains can there be? As you can see, the COVID virus mutates quite easily... Possible scenarios for December 21: 1) Long positions remain relevant at the moment, as the upward trend continues. The price has dropped to the lower border of the rising channel for now. A rebound from it will serve as a signal to buy the pair while aiming for 1.2231 and 1.2251. However, now we need to understand how seriously the markets will take information about the new strain of COVID and how long they will be ready to process this information. 2) Trading for a fall does not look practical, from a technical point of view, but logical, from a fundamental one. If a new mutation begins to spread at the same rate as the main COVID a year ago, then all markets in the world will be in a disarray again. Panic among traders, a new drop in demand for oil and energy resources, new lockdowns, everything will suffer again, and very hard. And in this case, the dollar's growth may again be strong and protracted. Closing below the channel will signal sales with targets at 1.2150 and 1.2100. Novice traders should decide for themselves whether they are willing to take the increased risks when opening short positions after the pair has already moved down 70 points. On the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now. Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels. The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines). Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal. Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time. Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade GBP/USD on December 21? Plan for opening and closing deals on Monday 2020-12-21 Hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair 
Of course, the GBP/USD pair also fell by 170 points last night, taking the gap into account. However, the technical picture for the pound is somewhat different than for the euro. The British currency broke the upward trend on Friday, settling below the trend line. Therefore, selling the pound was reasonable. And novice traders could open new short deals at the opening of trading on Monday night. First of all, the initial reaction to the news about a new strain of coronavirus has been announced. Second, a sell signal from MACD has appeared. Not the strongest, not the most convincing, but it appeared. Those novice traders who went short overnight have gained profit by around 50 points. The pound/dollar pair may continue to fall on Monday. However, we warn newcomers that in the current environment you can earn a lot, but you can also lose a lot. Markets start to panic again, and it would be very difficult to trade at this moment. It's good if you know for sure that now the US dollar will rise for a couple of weeks, as it did in March. But nobody knows this. Another theme is now added to the fundamental background, which will add headaches to traders in the last days of 2020. Naturally, the source of this topic is the long-suffering Great Britain, which has been in limbo for four years due to Brexit, and for the last nine months also due to the very likely absence of a trade deal with the European Union when Brexit is officially over. That is, in ten days ... In recent days, the parties should have been trying hard to reach an agreement (London and Brussels have been trying hard to reach it for several months), but now it is not a fact that negotiations will continue at all if Britain leaves to a new quarantine. Moreover, it is unclear whether the new strain of coronavirus has got to European countries, so now half of the EU will have to be closed as well? In general, I would like 2020 to end as quickly as possible, but the problem is that 2021 may be no better than its predecessor. And it certainly would be for the UK. The British economy will definitely lose a few percent of GDP in the fourth quarter due to the repeated lockdown that took place in November-December. If the country goes into a new hard quarantine, then this would be an additional blow to the economy. The main thing is to keep the new strain from spreading throughout the planet. Possible scenarios for December 21: 1) The upward trend is temporarily canceled since the price has settled below the rising trend line. Therefore, in order for novice traders to consider trading bullish again, they need to wait for the downward trend to end or a new upward trend to appear. Until then, it is not recommended to buy the pound. 2) Selling, from our point of view, is now advisable, since the price has settled below the trend line. So now you can stay in open short positions with targets at 1.3300 and 1.3250 until the MACD indicator turns up. However, this indicator can turn upward at any time, since it is already at its lowest positions. And so the pound may continue to collapse. On the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now. Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels. The MACD indicator consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines). Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal. Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time. Simplified wave analysis and forecast for EUR/USD, and AUD/USD, GBP/JPY for December 21 2020-12-21 EUR/USD Analysis: The euro market continues to strengthen the exchange rate. The last section of the trend started on November 4. Within its framework, a correction wave in the form of a shifting plane has been developing since December 3. This movement has entered its final phase. Forecast: Today, the current decline, the formation of a reversal, and the beginning of a counter price rise are expected to end. Potential reversal zones Resistance: - 1.2270/1.2300 Support: - 1.2170/1.2140 Recommendations: There are no suitable conditions for selling euros today. It is recommended to refrain from entering the market during the decline and look for buy signals of the pair in the area of the support zone. 
AUD/USD Analysis: The scale of the upward wave of the Australian dollar that began in March reaches the weekly TF price chart. The unfinished section started on November 2. An intermediate correction is formed in the area of the potential reversal zone. It has the wrong kind of structure and is close to completion. Forecast: There is a high probability that the current decline will end in the area of settlement support in the next session. Then you should wait for a change of course and return to the bullish vector of movement. During a reversal, a short-term puncture of the lower support border is not excluded. Potential reversal zones Resistance: - 0.7620/0.7650 Support: - 0.7550/0.7520 Recommendations: The current decline is directed against the main trend, thus, selling is risky. It is recommended to track the reversal signals to buy the instrument. 
GBP/JPY Analysis: The price decline that began two days ago exceeded the scope of the correction of the previous bullish wave of December 7. The wave marking shows that the horizontal bearish structure of November 9 is still forming. It takes the place of a correction in the bullish wave of September 22. forecast: In the coming day, you can expect a general downward course. At the European session, a short-term rise in the resistance area is not excluded. The calculated support is located at the upper boundary of a wide zone of potential large-scale reversal. Potential reversal zones Resistance: - 138.50/138.80 Support: - 137.50/137.20 Recommendations: Trading on the pair's market today is possible only within the intraday. Until clear reversal signals appear, the priority is to sell the instrument. 
Explanation: In the simplified wave analysis (UVA), waves consist of 3 parts (A-B-C). The last incomplete wave is analyzed. The solid background of the arrows shows the formed structure, and the dotted one shows the expected movements. Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of the instrument's movements in time! Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for December 21, 2020 2020-12-21 Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair has opened the Tokyo session with a gap down and is currently trading around the daily lows at the level of 1.3333. The bearish pressure is clear, so the next target for them is seen at the level of 1.3306 - 1.3295. The other technical support is located at the level of 1.3264 and 1.3240. Please notice, that if the level of 1.3240 is violated, the price will be close to the main trend line support located around the level of 1.3170. The key technical support is still seen between the levels of 1.3165 - 1.3121. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.3982 WR2 - 1.3787 WR1 - 1.3662 Weekly Pivot - 1.3457 WS1 - 1.3286 WS2 - 1.3107 WS3 - 1.2936 Trading Recommendations: The GBP/USD pair might have started a long term up trend and the trigger for this trend was the breakout above the level or 1.3518 on the weekly time frame chart. All the local corrections should be used to enter a buy orders as long as the level of 1.2674 is not broken. The long-term target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.4370. 
EUR/USD. Traders panic amid new strain of COVID-19 2020-12-21 The currency market is dominated by panic again due to a new strain of COVID-19. According to preliminary data, it is 70% more infectious than usual, which has already been found in several European countries and even in Australia. This fact forces Europe to isolate itself from the UK: Germany is meeting the EU Council today for an emergency meeting and after that, it is expected that all passenger flights will most likely be prohibited, as well as sea and rail links with the British Isles for the entire European Union. In Britain itself, quarantine is being significantly tightened – especially in those regions where the mutated virus was detected. Events are developing quickly. Last Friday, a new round of the coronavirus crisis did not cause any alarm among investors, although the new strain became known last Monday (it was originally discovered back in September, but then it was not given due attention). The situation was worsened by Boris Johnson, who said in his speech that the mutated virus is much more infectious than usual. His statement came amid the second wave of COVID-19 that swept Europe last fall, forcing them to tighten quarantine restrictions. Considering the recent events, the European press started talking about a repetition of the spring scenario, when a full lockdown was introduced in the EU countries. 
The traders in the currency market reacted to the situation immediately: the main dollar pairs began the trading week with a gap in favor of the US currency. For example, the euro/dollar pair closed Friday's trading at the level of 1.2256, while on Monday, it was at 1.2225. During the Asian session, it fell by several dozen points, dropping to the area of the 1.21 level. It is clear that the pound suffered the most – the pound/dollar pair fell by almost 200 points. But if in the case of this pair, the price declined due to the pound's weakening amid dollar's strengthening, then all other dollar pairs changed their configuration only due to the strengthening of the US currency. The dollar index surged from 89.83 to the current level of 90.40 during the Asian session on Monday. Thus, judging by the panicked headline of the European press, this indicator will continue to grow, reflecting the interest of traders in the protective asset. This is a kind of "finest hour" for the US dollar, since it has been gradually losing positions since November began – the US dollar index has been steadily declining for almost seven weeks on a wave of general optimism over vaccinations. However, the situation with the new strain unfolded very quickly, literally over the weekend. Therefore, we are currently seeing a natural increase in anti-risk sentiment and accordingly, an increased demand for protective assets. At the same time, investors are now more afraid of the sudden uncertainty than a new strain of the virus directly, since information about which is not so much. According to experts, scientists are currently aware of at least nine groups of COVID-19 mutations, but no mutated virus has caused such a stir up to this point. It should be recalled that the mutated version of the virus was found in September in one of the patients in the UK, but then it was not given due attention. It was only remembered when quarantine measures in certain areas of England did not give the expected result. After that, Boris Johnson said that the new version of the virus can be up to 70% more contagious than the previous ones, but this information has not yet been confirmed experimentally and is based only on computer modeling. At the same time, the World Health Organization does not note the impact of the new mutation on mortality. WHO also doubts that the new strain will affect the effectiveness of vaccines. Experts believe that the probability of an "upgrade" of the virus increases with the growing cases of its transmission, while it gradually adapts to the human body in the course of its mutations. The key question now is to determine exactly what new characteristics the so-called "British virus" has acquired: whether there have been drastic and dangerous changes or whether it is just a normal evolution. 
In fact, the future fate of the US dollar depends on the answer to this question, no matter how ironic it may sound. If scientists confirm the initial fears of doctors about the new strain, USD will continue to gain impulse amid rising anti-risk sentiment. However, an alternative scenario is not ruled out. If Johnson's statement about its risk are not confirmed experimentally, then the situation in the currency market will quickly go back to normal, which will lead to the fall of the dollar under a wave of aggressive sales. It is worth noting that traders in dollar pairs ignored today's news that the US Congressmen have finally reached a compromise on a new package of measures to stimulate the US economy in the amount of almost 900 billion dollars. The corresponding vote in the House of Representatives, where the majority is controlled by the Democrats, will take place today. The Senate must approve this document until December 25, after which the bill will be passed to Donald Trump. However, this long-awaited news by many investors was ignored by the market today, as the main focus is on a new strain of COVID-19 Most likely, experts will not be able to accurately answer key questions regarding the mutated virus in the next few days; while EU's preventive measures, which will be taken today, will provoke a new surge of anti-risk sentiment. This means that short positions in the short term are prioritized for the EUR/USD pair with an initial target of 1.2090 (middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily time frame). Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for December 21, 2020 2020-12-21 Technical Market Outlook: The EUR/USD pair has broken out from the ascending channel around the level of 1.2220 and made a new local low at the level of 1.2179 (at the time of writing the article). The market approaches the key short-term demand zone located between the levels of 1.2154 - 1.2177. The next technical support is seen at the level of 1.2088. Please notice, the market is coming off the overbought conditions and the momentum is already below the neutral level of fifty, so the deeper pull-back might develop soon. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.2470 WR2 - 1.2364 WR1 - 1.2314 Weekly Pivot - 1.2216 WS1 - 1.2157 WS2 - 1.2054 WS3 - 1.2003 Trading Recommendations: Since the middle of March 2020 the main trend is on EUR/USD pair has been up. This means any local corrections should be used to buy the dips until the key technical support is broken. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1609. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555. 
GBP/USD. December 21. COT report. Panic in the UK over a new strain of coronavirus. The Briton began a long-awaited fall. 2020-12-21 GBP/USD – 1H. 
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair continue the process of falling and have consolidated under the corrective level of 161.8% (1.3375). At the weekend, information came from London, where Health Minister Matt Hancock said that a new strain of coronavirus had appeared in the country and it was already out of control. The UK immediately fell into forced isolation, as most countries of the European Union and the world banned the entry of citizens from Britain into their territories. However, it is already known that a new strain of coronavirus has been detected in Italy, Denmark, and the Netherlands. That is, it is no longer a purely British disease. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson immediately introduced a new quarantine in the country. In many areas of London, there is now the third level of quarantine (the most severe after "lockdown"). However, Johnson also said that the fourth level of quarantine will be introduced in some areas, a new level that will be comparable to "lockdown". The fourth level provides for the closure of shops that do not sell necessities, almost the entire service sector. That is, only those services and enterprises will work, without which the functioning of the state and people's lives are impossible. The Briton, under the influence of this news, finally got a very good reason for falling. There is still no trade deal with the European Union and it is now unclear whether negotiations will continue, as the new coronavirus comes out on top in terms of importance. And the new strain itself has hit the UK most so far, which will affect its economy very much. GBP/USD – 4H. 
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair fell to the corrective level of 76.4% (1.3291). The rebound of the exchange rate from this level will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the British currency and the resumption of growth, however, the information background pushes the pair down and the fall can be very strong. Fixing under the Fibo level of 76.4% will increase the chances of a further fall towards the next corrective level of 61.8% (1.3174). GBP/USD – Daily. 
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes have secured under the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3513), which now increases the probability of a new fall with the target of the Fibo level of 76.4% (1.3016). GBP/USD – Weekly. 
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair performed an increase to the second downward trend line. A rebound from it in the long term will mean a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a long fall in the British dollar's quotes. Overview of fundamentals: On Friday, the UK released a report on retail trade, which grew in November by 2.4%, with higher expectations of traders. There was no further news. The economic calendar for the US and the UK: On December 21, the UK and US economic calendars are completely blank, however, the whole world will now be watching for news about the new strain of coronavirus. Also, do not forget about the negotiations on a trade deal between Brussels and London. COT (Commitments of Traders) report: 
The latest COT report showed that speculators were getting rid of both long and short contracts. This again suggests that traders are wary of the British and the information background. It is extremely difficult to predict what will happen to the UK economy in 2021. Therefore, the category of "Non-commercial" traders prefers to close trades, rather than open new ones. This time, speculators closed 4 thousand long contracts and 2.5 thousand short contracts. Thus, the mood of speculators has become much less "bullish". At the same time, the British continued the growth process, thus, I can draw the same conclusion as for the euro. Major traders are preparing for a new fall in the pound. GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders: I recommend buying the British dollar when the quotes break from any important corrective level, however, it is better to refrain from long positions now. The probability of falling is too high. It was possible to sell the pound when it was fixed under the ascending corridor on the hourly chart. Now it remains only to maintain open short positions. Terms: "Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors. "Commercial" - means commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency not for speculative profit, but for current activities or export-import operations. "Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price. EUR/USD. December 21. COT report: major traders again do not believe in further growth of the euro. A new strain of coronavirus excites markets 2020-12-21 EUR/USD – 1H. 
On December 18, the EUR/USD pair began a weak process of falling and it performed a fall to the ascending trend line. Closing the pair's rate under this line will work in favor of continuing the fall of quotes in the direction of the corrective level of 200.0% (1.2094). Rebound - will work in favor of the EU currency and the resumption of growth in the direction of the corrective level of 323.6% (1.2308). The fall in the euro currency quotes at the very beginning of the trading week was caused by a message from the UK about a new strain of coronavirus called NS501Y. The problem is not in the new strain itself, as it has long been known that the COVID-2019 coronavirus has several varieties. The problem is that this strain is spreading much faster than the usual coronavirus and at the moment it is not entirely clear whether only recently created vaccines against this strain work or not? If the latter – then the whole of humanity is facing a new epidemiological problem. The world has only recently started vaccination, which can last from several months to a year, and even in this case, not all the population of the planet and not even the entire population of developed countries will be vaccinated. That is, vaccination does not mean that in six months you can forget about the coronavirus and treat it as seasonal flu or SARS. The new strain may be resistant to existing vaccines. It could already leave the UK, which only this weekend announced the "out-of-control" of the new strain. Thus, the potential problems for the whole world and the economy are very high. EUR/USD – 4H. 
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and began the process of falling in the direction of the upward trend line, which continues to characterize the current mood of traders as "bullish". Today, the divergence is not observed in any indicator. EUR/USD – Daily. 
On the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair quotes continue the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 423.6% (1.2495). Until the pair completes its consolidation below the level of 323.6%, there are still high chances of growth. EUR/USD – Weekly. 
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has performed a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term. Overview of fundamentals: On December 18, the European Union and the United States did not have any important economic reports or events. This explains the relatively low activity of traders during the day. News calendar for the United States and the European Union: On December 21, the US and EU economic event calendars are empty. Thus, the information background will be absent today. COT (Commitments of Traders) report: 
For four weeks in a row, the mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders became more "bullish". This was indicated by COT reports and it coincided with what was happening on the euro/dollar pair. However, in the reporting week, speculators opened as many as 11 thousand new short-contracts, and also closed 5200 long-contracts. Thus, they significantly weakened their bullish mood. And despite this, the euro continues to show growth. However, a sharp change in the mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders does not mean that the euro currency should immediately collapse. The latest COT report shows that speculators are once again preparing for a fall in the euro currency, or at least for the end of its growth. EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders: Today, I recommend selling the euro with a target of 1.2094, if the consolidation is made under the trend line on the hourly chart. New purchases of the pair can be opened with a target of 1.2308 when the quotes rebound from the trend line on the hourly chart. Terms: "Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors. "Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations. "Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price. Technical analysis of EUR/USD for December 21, 2020 2020-12-21  Overview : The EUR/USD pair faced resistance at the level of 1.2319, while minor resistance is seen at 1.2273. Support is found at the levels of 0.9800 and 0.9660. The price of 1.2213 represents the daily pivot point (key level, 61.% of Fibonacci retracement level, support/resistance at the same time). Also, it should be noted that a daily pivot point has already set at the level of 1.2213. Equally important, the EUR/USD pair is still moving around the key level at 1.2213, which represents a daily pivot in the H1 time frame at the moment. Last week, the EUR/USD pair continued to move upwards from the level of 1.2153. The pair rose from the level of 1.2153 (this level of 0.9800 coincides with the double bottom, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level) to the top around 1.2273. The EUR/USD had rebounded from the highest price of 1.2273 to close at 1.2235. In consequence, the EUR/USD pair broke resistance, which turned strong support at the level of 1.2223. The level of 1.2223 is expected to act as major support today. From this point, we expect the EUR/USD pair to continue moving in the bullish trend from the support level of 1.2223 towards the target level of 1.2273. If the pair succeeds in passing through the level of 1.2273, the market will indicate the bullish opportunity above the level of 1.2273 in order to reach the second target at 1.2319. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.2273, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 1.2273. So, the market will decline further to 1.2223 in order to return to the daily pivot point (1.2223). Moreover, a breakout of that target will move the pair further downwards to 1.2059 in coming days. Forecast : Uptrend scenario : - An uptrend will start as soon, as the market rises above support level 1.2213, which will be followed by moving up to resistance levels of 1.2273, 1.2319, then 1.2370.
Downtrend scenario : - An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1.2223 , which will be followed by moving down to support level 1.2059.
Tips : - Important tips to remember about trend lines:
- When constructing a channel, both trend lines must be parallel lines to each other. Predominantly, the bottom of channel is considered a buy area while the top of channel is considered a sell area. Like in drawing trend lines, do not ever force the price to the channels that you draw! A channel limit that is slanting at one angle while the corresponding (parallel) channel limit is slanting at another is not correct and could lead to bad trades. Channels are just another tool in technical analysis which can be used to determine good places to buy or sell. Both the tops and bottoms of channels represent potential areas of support or resistance.
 GBP/USD and EUR/USD: A new strain of coronavirus has spread in the UK. The US is close to adopting a new stimulus package. 2020-12-21 Demand for the US dollar is expected to increase soon, especially since news emerged that over the weekend, Senate officials have finally come to an agreement on a new package of economic stimulus. The congressional vote is expected to take place shortly.  EUR: As mentioned above, the Republicans and the Democrats finally managed to agree on a new aid package, and it amounts to just over $ 900 billion. Included in the program is an increase in unemployment benefits by $ 300 per week, and additional payments to individuals in the amount of $ 600. A separate amount will be allocated for US airlines. A vote on the interim US budget will also be held soon, which will help prevent economic shutdown. Meanwhile in Europe, a surprising economic report was released, and it helped the euro keep its positions in the market. The rather strong data from Germany indicates that its economy is doing quite well even amid a partial lockdown. According to the report, the index for business conditions rose to 92.1 in December, while the index for current conditions grew to 91.3 points. The index for economic expectations, meanwhile, increased to 92.8 points.  Today, the EUR / USD pair dropped sharply, and it seems that it will continue doing so in the coming days. Euro bears will work for a breakout at 1.2180, as such will make it easier for the quote to decline to 1.2130 and 1.2080. But if the euro returns to 1.2225 and consolidates above it, the quote will increase to 1.2275, and possibly move towards the 23rd figure. GBP: The British pound declined on Friday amid news that the UK and the EU again failed to sign a trade deal. Negotiations continued over the weekend, but so far there has been no result. At the same time, the data on UK retail sales came out weak, which put additional pressure on the pound. The report said sales dropped by 3.8%, mainly due to the quarantine restrictions.  Another terrible news was the discovery of a new strain of coronavirus, which, to date, has started to spread in the UK. Authorities have decided to toughen the quarantine restrictions because of this. With regards to the COVID-19, more than 350,000 people had been vaccinated as of Saturday morning. Initially, the UK planned to soften the restrictive measures for the Christmas holidays, but later changed it after the rapid spread of a new virus. Scientific evidence suggests that this strain could spread significantly faster than the current COVID-19. Going back to Brexit, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that the parties need to find a compromise within a few days. According to the latest rumors, negotiations will continue this week. Chief negotiator Michel Barnier said he will continue to work hard with David Frost and his team to reach an agreement, and noted that both the EU and the UK should have the right to make their own laws and control their waters however they want. All this news seems to have shocked the pound, as the currency dropped by nearly 200 pips this morning, as soon as the trading session started. Pound bears will surely take this opportunity to break the quote out of 1.3350, as such will make it easier for the pound to reach 1.3240. Their next targets will be 1.2190 and 1.2135. But if the quote returns to 1.3435, the GBP / USD pair will increase again to 1.3525. Forex forecast 12/21/2020 on GBP/USD, EUR/GBP and GBP/JPY from Sebastian Seliga 2020-12-21 Let's take a look at the technical picture of GBP/USD, GBP/JPY and EUR/GBP after the travel ban on UK was introduced on flights, trains and ferries.
Author's today's articles: Maxim Magdalinin  In 2005 graduated from the Academy of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Belarus, law faculty. Worked as a lawyer for three years in one of the biggest country's company. Besides the trading, he develops trading systems, writes articles and analytical reviews. Works at stock and commodity markets explorations. On Forex since 2006. Sergey Belyaev  Born December 1, 1955. In 1993 graduated from Air Force Engineering Academy. In September 1999 started to study Forex markets. Since 2002 has been reading lectures on the technical analysis . Is fond of research work. Created a personal trading system based on the indicator analysis. Authored the book on technical analysis "Calculation of the next candlestick". At present the next book is being prepared for publishing "Indicator Analysis of Forex Market. Trading System Encyclopedia". Has created eleven courses on indicator analysis. Uses classical indicators. Works as a public lecturer. Held numerous seminars and workshops presented at international exhibitions of financial markets industry. Is known as one of the best specialists in the Russian Federation researching indicator analysis. Stanislav Polyanskiy  Graduated from Odessa State Economic University. On Forex since 2006. Writes analytical reviews about international financial markets for more than 3 years. Worked as a currency analyst in different finance companies for a long time including the biggest companies of Russia and Ukraine. Vyacheslav Ognev  Vyacheslav was born on August 24, 1971. In 1993, he graduated from Urals State University of Economics in the Russian city of Ekaterinburg holding a degree in Commerce and Economics of Trade. In 2007, he started concentrating on the Russian stock market, trading stocks on the RTS Stock Exchange and futures contracts on FORTS. Since 2008 he has been engaged in analyzing Forex market and trading currencies. He is an author of a simplified wave analysis method. He has also developed a trading strategy. At present, Vyacheslav is a co-author of training materials on two web portals dedicated to Forex trading education. Interests: fitness, F1 "Experience is the best of schoolmasters, only the school fees are heavy." - Thomas Carlyle Sebastian Seliga  Sebastian Seliga was born on 13th Oсtober 1978 in Poland. He graduated in 2005 with MA in Social Psychology. He has worked for leading financial companies in Poland where he actively traded on NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ exchanges. Sebastian started Forex trading in 2009 and mastered Elliott Wave Principle approach to the markets by developing and implementing his own trading strategies of Forex analysis. Since 2012, he has been writing analitical reviews based on EWP for blogs and for Forex websites and forums. He has developed several on-line projects devoted to Forex trading and investments. He is interested in slow cooking, stand-up comedy, guitar playing, reading and swimming. "Every battle is won before it is ever fought", Sun Tzu Irina Manzenko  Irina Manzenko Grigory Sokolov  Born 1 January, 1986. In 2008 graduated from Kiev Institute of Business and Technology with "Finance and Credit" as a major. Since 2008 has studied the behavior of various currency pairs and their correlation on Forex. In his works and trading practice he uses candlestick analysis and Fibonacci technique. Since 2009 has written analytical reviews and articles which are published on popular Internet resources. Interests: music, computers and cookery. "Out of five deadly sins of business and as a rule, the most widespread, excessive striving to get profit is the worst". P. Drucker Mourad El Keddani  Was born in Oujda, Morocco. Currently lives in Belgium. In 2003 obtained B.S. in Experimental Sciences. In 2007 obtained a graduate diploma at Institut Marocain Specialise en Informatique Applique (IMSIA), specialty – Software Engineering Analyst. In 2007–2009 worked as teacher of computer services and trainer in a professional school specializing in computer technologies and accounting. In 2005 started Forex trading. Authored articles and analytical reviews on Forex market on Forex websites and forums. Since 2008 performs Forex market research, and develops and implements his own trading strategies of Forex analysis (especially in Forex Research & Analysis, Currency Forecast, and Recommendations and Analysis) that lies in: Numerical analysis: Probabilities, equations and techniques of applying Fibonacci levels. Classical analysis: Breakout strategy and trend indicators. Uses obtained skills to manage traders' accounts since 2009. In April 2009 was certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts. Winner of several social work awards: Education Literacy and Non-Formal Education (in Literacy and Adult Education in The National Initiative for Human Development).
Languages: Arabic, English, French and Dutch.
Interests: Algorithm, Graphics, Social work, Psychology and Philosophy. Pavel Vlasov  No data
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