| | | | | |  | | By Zach Montellaro | Editor's Note: Weekly Score is a weekly version of POLITICO Pro's daily Campaigns policy newsletter, Morning Score. POLITICO Pro is a policy intelligence platform that combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the day's biggest stories. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro. | | | — Republicans have an overall TV advertising advantage in Georgia, thanks largely due to a wave of outside spending that has swamped non-candidate spending from Democrats. — President Donald Trump met with Sidney Powell — the conspiracy theorist who was formerly on his legal team — and the recently pardoned Michael Flynn. At the meeting, the president floated the idea of appointing Powell as a special counsel. — The Supreme Court punted on a case challenging Trump's memorandum that seeks to exclude undocumented immigrants from the apportionment count for the census, with the court's majority saying it was not ripe for review. Good Monday morning. Follow me on Twitter at @ZachMontellaro. Email the rest of the POLITICO Campaigns team at sshepard@politico.com, jarkin@politico.com, amutnick@politico.com and srodriguez@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve, @JamesArkin, @allymutnick and @sabrod123. Days until the Georgia Senate runoffs: 15 Days until the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections: 316 Days until the 2022 midterm elections: 687 | | | ON MY MIND — We're just over two weeks away from the Georgia runoffs between GOP Sen. David Perdue and Jon Ossoff, and the special election between GOP Sen. Kelly Loeffler and Raphael Warnock — and turnoff has been astronomical. Over 1.3 million people have already voted, according to data compiled by the site Georgia Votes, just narrowly trailing the pace for the general election. There's good reason for a lot of voters being tuned in: They're being bombarded with TV advertising, where Republicans have an advantage that's largely been fueled by GOP outside groups well outpacing Democratic ones, POLITICO's Elena Schneider and James Arkin wrote. Ossoff and Warnock, flush in small-donor cash, pay significantly less for ads than outside groups and "have been able to blunt the GOP's financial edge, especially in the Atlanta media market, where nearly two-thirds of people in the state reside. But GOP TV ads are running in much higher rotation in other markets, according to data from AdImpact," the ad tracking firm. So what's the deal with the disparate outside group spending? "Interviews with a dozen Democratic strategists and donors outlined several key reasons why Republicans have been able to build an advertising advantage. There's fatigue among Democrats' biggest donors after pouring millions into the 2020 general election, as well as mild skepticism that Ossoff and Warnock can actually win," Elena and James wrote. There's also been a shift in where Democratic dollars are going. "Most crucially, there is growing suspicion among some Democratic donors — grounded in the party's failure to flip control of the Senate in November — that massive TV ad campaigns don't equal success, and money might be put to better use with organizations operating on the ground in Georgia instead of on the air," they reported. Speaking of ads, there's a whole bunch of 'em, all captured by our friends at AdImpact. First, the candidate ads: Loeffler has an ad saying " freedoms we have are under attack." Warnock has an ad highlighting his bus tour. A Perdue ad links Ossoff to China. Ossoff has an ad talking about equal justice and voting rights, and a second ad talks attacks Perdue for his pandemic response . Plus a joint ad from both Loeffler and Perdue, featuring Georgia football legend Herschel Walker. And now those outside group ads: An ad from One Nation, the GOP dark money group, has an ad talking about health insurance. (It doesn't explicitly name any candidate, but attacks House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.) An ad from Peachtree PAC, the Republicans' super PAC tied to Senate Leadership Fund to attack both Democrats, calls the Democrats radicals. An ad from Georgia Honor, an affiliate of the Democratic super PAC Senate Majority PAC, says Loeffler "sold us out." An ad from the Democratic group VoteVets has a retired major general attacking Perdue over veterans' issues. — Two big visits to the Peach State coming up: Vice President-elect Kamala Harris is set to campaign with Warnock and Ossoff today. Trump tweeted he'd host a rally in the state on Jan. 4 (and also took potshots at the Republican governor and secretary of state). Head to the downballot section to see more Georgia reporting. | | | | EVERYONE IS TALKING ABOUT TRANSITION PLAYBOOK, SUBSCRIBE TODAY: A new year is quickly approaching. Inauguration Day is right around the corner. President-elect Joe Biden's staffing decisions are sending clear-cut signals about his priorities. What do these signals foretell? Transition Playbook is the definitive guide to the new administration and one of the most consequential transfers of power in American history. Written for political insiders, this scoop-filled newsletter breaks big news daily and analyzes the appointments, people and emerging power centers of the new administration. Track the transition and the first 100 days of the incoming Biden administration. Subscribe today. | | | | | | | | CLOSING DAYS — Trump met with Powell, Flynn and Rudy Giuliani on Friday in the Oval Office, a potentially serious escalation of the president's attempts to overturn the results of an election he lost. At the meeting, POLITICO's Kyle Cheney and Josh Gerstein reported, Trump floated tapping Powell as a special counsel to probe voter fraud, the core tenant of the conspiracy theories she has spread. (The New York Times' Maggie Haberman and Zolan Kanno-Youngs first reported on the meeting, with some additional details from Axios' Jonathan Swan.) As of late, Flynn has been proposing that Trump impose martial law to deploy the military, which The Times reported Trump asked about during the meeting. More from Kyle and Josh: "In one heated exchange, White House Counsel Pat Cipollone and Chief of Staff Mark Meadows pushed back against the idea of tapping [Powell] as a special counsel to probe the claims. Giuliani also has urged top Department of Homeland Security official Ken Cuccinelli to confiscate voting machines, a request Cuccinelli has turned down because he lacks the authority to do so, according to a person familiar with the discussions." Powell was back at the White House on Sunday, per CNN's Jeremy Diamond. — And with Trump continuing to refuse to accept his loss, attention turns to Jan. 6, when Congress will count and certify the states' electoral college votes. Trump told Giuliani during a Sunday radio show that he spoke to Sen.-elect Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) recently, with Tuberville being floated by Trump allies as someone who'd join the handful of House members who said they'd challenge results. (Reminder that McConnell urged Senate Republicans not to entertain this.) Part of Trump's efforts to overturn the results has been to lean on Republicans to try to pressure them to support him. POLITICO's Anita Kumar and Gabby Orr have an accounting of who he spoke with: "In total, the president talked to at least 31 Republicans, encompassing mostly local and state officials from four critical battleground states he lost — Michigan, Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania. The contacts included at least 12 personal phone calls to 11 individuals, and at least four White House meetings with 20 Republican state lawmakers, party leaders and attorneys general, all people he hoped to win over to his side. Trump also spoke by phone about his efforts with numerous House Republicans and at least three current or incoming Senate Republicans." — The Trump campaign also asked the Supreme Court to overturn a trio of cases they lost in the Pennsylvania state Supreme Court. The Philadelphia Inquirer's Jonathan Lai has more on the cases, which challenge "three Pennsylvania Supreme Court decisions on mail ballots and says the state court overstepped its constitutional role." A motion to expedite filed alongside this alludes to "disruption" if it isn't granted: "Indeed, the intense national and worldwide attention on the 2020 Presidential election only foreshadows the disruption that may well follow if the uncertainty and unfairness shrouding this election are allowed to persist." THE CASH DASH — Trump's conspiracy mongering has been lucrative for him. The New York Times' Shane Goldmacher and Maggie Haberman report that more than $60 million of the post-election money he has raised has gone to his relatively new leadership PAC. Their story also dives into American Made Media Consultants, which was set up by Trump officials where much of the president's campaign spending was routed.
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| | | COUNTING HEADS — The Supreme Court punted on a challenge to Trump's memo that sought to exclude unlawful immigrants from apportionment data, I wrote with Josh , calling a legal challenge to the memo premature. The decision appeared to split along ideological lines, with the three liberal justices noting their dissent and saying the court should rule on the merits (and against the memorandum) now, with the majority opinion being unsigned. It is still not clear when, exactly, the Census Bureau will be able to deliver apportionment data. (President-elect Joe Biden opposes Trump's plans to try to exclude classes of immigrants from the count, so if it is delivered after Jan. 20 it would be moot. Dale Ho, the director of the ACLU's voting rights project who argued the case for plaintiffs, said they were prepared to return to court should Trump actually try to implement his memorandum. ON MY MIND (CONTINUED) — So much Georgia, we're splitting it across two sections. Republicans suffered multiple legal defeats ahead of the runoffs. On Friday, a federal judge skewered an attempt from Perdue, Loeffler, the state Republican Party and NRSC (and others) to segregate all ballots from voters who registered following Nov. 3 (through Dec. 7, the cutoff date to vote in the runoff). That was met with by a frosty reception from U.S. District Judge Lisa Godbey Wood, who denied the request for an emergency order, Josh and I wrote . Wood, an appointee of President George W. Bush, questioned the basis for the suit on several grounds, and also expressed concern that segregating ballots could prompt some potential voters not to cast them. The 11th Circuit also shot down an emergency stay pending appeal from the NRSC, Georgia state GOP and the candidates on a separate case that sought to tighten the signature verification process for mail ballots. (Some background on that case from last week, from me and James.) — What's missing from the Georgia runoffs? The polls. POLITICO Campaigns' Steve Shepard : "The public polls that drove so much of the news coverage ahead of November — and generated tremendous distrust afterward — have all but disappeared in Georgia, and they are set to stay that way: Some of the most prolific, best-regarded media and academic pollsters told POLITICO they have no plans to conduct pre-election surveys in Georgia. And while the campaigns and outside groups are still using survey data to make critical decisions, in many cases, polling has taken a back seat. Strategists are leaning more heavily on absentee and early voting stats, along with the detailed results of the election held just last month." But there still will be exit polling come Jan. 5. Shep reports that the National Election Pool, a consortium of networks, has already begun phone interviews with absentee voters and in-person interviewers were stationed outside of early-voting centers. — Today's FEC filing of the day comes from Black Lives Matter PAC, which is affiliated with the nonprofit of the same name. The group reported spending $331,000 on a media buy and production backing Ossoff and Warnock, its first ever independent expenditure. My colleague Maya King has more on the group's push for more political power, from November. (And a general reminder: the pre-runoff filing deadline is Thursday, on Christmas Eve.) — Two stories about coalition building in Georgia: Maya writes how Ossoff's campaign was prioritizing rural Black voters with a weeklong bus tour. And POLITICO's Laura Barrón-López reports how Democrats are targeting Asian American voters in the state, who were a small voting bloc in November but likely contributed to Biden's victory this year. THE LEFT FLANK — After setting high hopes, the progressive wing of the Democratic Party had a mixed year: The Squad is growing in safe House districts, but their standard bearers fell in the presidential race and they were largely unable to make inroads outside of major cities. "Progressives are like a superstar young athlete that is supposed to be coming into his prime, but has still not established himself as a starter, let alone an all-star," Max Berger, the former director of progressive outreach for Sen. Elizabeth Warren's (D-Mass.) presidential campaign, told POLITICO's Holly Otterbein. "We had a better showing this past year than we've had in a long time, but it's still much worse than we might have hoped." THE ENFORCERS — Shana Broussard, Sean Cooksey and Allen Dickerson have all been sworn in as commissioners to the FEC, formally restoring a quorum to the agency. Read my story from earlier in the month on when they were confirmed by the Senate. CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I declare and verify under plenty of perjury that the facts contained in the foregoing Verified Complaint for Declaratory and Injunctive Relief are true and correct." — Lin Wood, an associate of Powell, filing another lawsuit. (Bold is ours, of course.) | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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