Monday, December 21, 2020

Don’t worry about the mutation — yet

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POLITICO Nightly logo

By Renuka Rayasam

Presented by Harry's

With help from Myah Ward

BRITISH INVASION — This isn't the first time the Covid-19 virus has mutated.

In February, the virus strain that spread in Europe had more than a dozen mutations to the spike protein, which the virus uses to enter cells. It's highly contagious and quickly became the dominant form of Covid.

In November, Denmark's government ordered the wipeout of the country's 17 million mink because of a new Covid variant spreading among the animals.

Now it's happening again. United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson effectively canceled holiday gatherings because of a British variant. New York's Gov. Andrew Cuomo wants pre-flight testing for people traveling from the U.K. to New York.

The virus has been mutating at a rate of one to two changes a month.

Most mutations so far are related to how contagious the virus is and not necessarily how lethal it is. Covid vaccines that have been given preliminary FDA approval and those in development will likely still be effective against these new strains, said Mark R. Schleiss, a researcher at the University of Minnesota's Institute for Molecular Virology.

Covid could evolve to render the current vaccine ineffective, but it would take years and multiple mutations. There's almost no chance of a single mutation making the vaccine not work. Measles has remained stable for decades, so there hasn't been a need to develop a new vaccine. But researchers had to develop a new pneumococcal vaccine about a decade ago after the disease mutated.

The vaccine rollout creates "selection pressure," making it more likely that a variant resistant to the vaccine could emerge, said Dan Barouch, a Harvard medical school professor and the director at the Center for Virology and Vaccine Research at the Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center. There are a lot of unknowns about the U.K. strain. "I'm not going to reassure you," Barouch told Nightly this evening.

Still, Barouch reassured us: Researchers already know how to develop a Covid vaccine. So if they had to develop another shot because of a mutation, they could do it in less time than a year. The Moderna vaccine took 66 days to enter a clinical trial after the coronavirus was genetically sequenced.

The more the virus spreads, the more chances it has to mutate. So it helps when health officials tamp down outbreaks. "I don't think we are going to face where we were back in March ever again because I don't think we will be as stupid as we were in March," said Howard Forman, a health policy professor at Yale. Schleiss points to his great aunt, who lived through the 1918 flu pandemic and still wore a handkerchief around her face whenever people came to visit. We may be wearing masks for a while, too.

There are still two big dangers. In the near term, the biggest one is that the virus is already spreading faster than any vaccine can be rolled out. Covid Exit Strategy stopped updating its map on Sunday night. They had already marked every state, except Hawaii, with dark red. The group said it would have to add two to three more shades to show the significance of the spread. On Saturday, 2,704 Americans died because of Covid, according to the Covid Tracking Project. It's hard not to see how bad it would be if an even more contagious strain entered the country at a time when people are gathering for the holidays.

Over the long term, the danger isn't a mutation of SARS-CoV2. It's SARS-CoV3. Schleiss described virus mutations like apple variants: the difference between a Gravenstein and a Pink Lady. A new coronavirus would be like a persimmon or a kiwi.

"I'm very worried that we have become complacent that we are done with coronaviruses," said Schleiss. "We just need to assume this will happen again some day."

Around 200 of London's black taxi cabs are stored in a field in Epping, England. Many black cab drivers across the capital have lost work, because of the pandemic. According to the Licensed Taxi Drivers' Association, around 80 percent of black cabs have come off the road since June due to the lack of customers.

Around 200 of London's black taxi cabs are stored in a field in Epping, England. According to the Licensed Taxi Drivers' Association, around 80 percent of black cabs have come off the road since June due to the lack of customers.

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Shelley Luther, the Dallas salon owner who defied Texas Covid restrictions, lost a runoff for a state Senate seat. We'll be taking a holiday break from Thursday, Dec. 24-Friday, Jan. 1. We'll be back and better than ever on Monday, Jan. 4. Reach out at rrayasam@politico.com, or on Twitter at @renurayasam.

 

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First In Nightly

VIRAL VACCINE LIES False claims about the dangers of coronavirus vaccines were running rampant on social media even before Americans began receiving their first shots last week — and now the months-long rollout to the entire population is giving bad information even more room to fester, technology reporter Alexandra Levine writes.

It started with baseless rumors that the inoculations would kill or sterilize the recipients, alter people's DNA or fail to keep up with virus mutations. Now it is expanding to more elaborate conspiracy theories in an era already rife with mistrust of government and other institutions. Social media companies are trying to keep up, but in many ways they're already behind, given the monumental task of combating misinformation about a massive, first-of-its-kind public health crisis effort.

"The fact that it's new, the fact that it's uncertain, the fact that your local doctor and pharmacist can't say to you, 'I've done this for 10 years now,' or, 'We've done the flu vaccine forever' — it's going to add to the potential for misleading and downright malicious material online," said disinformation researcher Paul Barrett, deputy director of the NYU Stern Center for Business and Human Rights.

 

EVERYONE IS TALKING ABOUT TRANSITION PLAYBOOK, SUBSCRIBE TODAY: A new year is quickly approaching. Inauguration Day is right around the corner. President-elect Joe Biden's staffing decisions are sending clear-cut signals about his priorities. What do these signals foretell? Transition Playbook is the definitive guide to the new administration and one of the most consequential transfers of power in American history. Written for political insiders, this scoop-filled newsletter breaks big news daily and analyzes the appointments, people and emerging power centers of the new administration. Track the transition and the first 100 days of the incoming Biden administration. Subscribe today.

 
 
On the Hill

JINGLE BILLS — Both chambers of Congress are now on track to approve a $900 billion coronavirus rescue package by the end of the night, capping a frenetic final week of negotiations and a last-minute computer glitch that delayed proceedings for half the day. The House will vote first on the package, which also includes a $1.4 trillion year-end spending measure, just hours after party leaders released the legislative text. The final vote in the lower chamber isn't expected until roughly 10 p.m., guaranteeing a late night in the Senate.

Here are a few of the bill's highlights:

$166 billion in direct checks: Individuals making up to $75,000 a year will receive a payment of $600, while couples making up to $150,000 will receive $1,200, in addition to $600 per child.

$120 billion in extra unemployment help: Jobless workers will get an extra $300 per week in federal cash through March 14. The legislation also extends employment benefits to self-employed individuals, gig workers and those who've exhausted their state benefits.

$325 billion small business boost: Pandemic-ravaged small businesses would see a total of $325 billion, including $284 billion in loans through the Paycheck Protection Program, $20 billion for businesses in low-income communities and $15 billion for struggling live venues, movie theaters and museums.

Read Caitlin Emma and Marianne LeVine's breakdown to see what else is in the $900 billion stimulus package.

 

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Palace Intrigue

'WHY BOTHER?' As of this weekend, Trump has now waited longer than any president in nearly a century to sit down with his successor at the White House. And advisers to Trump say he and Biden may never come face to face , even on Inauguration Day, blowing up another American political ritual, Daniel Lippman and Theodoric Meyer write.

Those close to Trump believe inviting Biden to the White House or even talking to him would risk being perceived as conceding the race, which Trump has been loath to do as he mulls another run in 2024. The same factors could keep him away from Biden's inauguration next month.

Biden and Trump have already gone longer without sitting down together than any president and president-elect since Herbert Hoover's election in 1928, according to research by the Partnership for Public Service's Center for Presidential Transition and POLITICO. Hoover left California by ship after Election Day on a diplomatic tour of Central and South America and didn't meet with President Calvin Coolidge until Jan. 7, 1929.

From the Health Desk

JOE GETS JABBED The president-elect and incoming first lady Jill Biden received initial injections of the coronavirus vaccine today. "I'm doing this to demonstrate that people should be prepared when it's available to take the vaccine," Biden said. "There's nothing to worry about. I'm looking forward to the second shot."

The Bidens' vaccinations come less than a week after a member of the press corps covering the transition and Rep. Cedric Richmond of Louisiana, the president-elect's chosen director of the White House Office of Public Engagement, tested positive for Covid-19.

Richmond's diagnosis is one of the closest known brushes with the virus for Biden, who at 78 is at a heightened risk of complications from the disease and has gone to considerable lengths to minimize the risk of exposure.

The Bidens received shots manufactured by Pfizer, one of two immunizations granted emergency authorization by the FDA earlier this month.

Nightly video player of President-elect Joe Biden receiving the coronavirus vaccine

Bidenology

Welcome to Bidenology, Nightly's look at the president-elect and what to expect in his administration. Tonight, as Congress winds down the year by passing a massive bill right before Christmas, we dig into the POLITICO archives and explore Biden's thoughts on using Christmas as an excuse to postpone votes. Here's an adaptation from the Dec. 12, 2010 piece, "Biden: I understand Christmas":

Vice President Joe Biden has no sympathy for senators who haven't yet hit the malls.

In an interview on NBC, Biden called on Senate Republicans to ratify the New START Treaty this month and blasted lawmakers who have cited Christmas as a reason to postpone.

"Don't tell me about Christmas," Biden said. "I understand Christmas. I have been a senator for a long time."

Biden noted there are 10 shopping days until Christmas. "I hope I don't get in the way of your Christmas shopping, but this is the nation's business," he said. "This is the national security that's at stake. Act."

Sen. Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) said Tuesday that getting START through the Senate would "disrespect" senators, staffers and their families by working up until Christmas. Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) on Wednesday told POLITICO that a vote as late as Christmas Eve was "sacrilegious."

 

TUNE IN TO NEW EPISODE OF GLOBAL TRANSLATIONS: Our Global Translations podcast, presented by Citi, examines the long-term costs of the short-term thinking that drives many political and business decisions. The world has long been beset by big problems that defy political boundaries, and these issues have exploded over the past year amid a global pandemic. This podcast helps to identify and understand the impediments to smart policymaking. Subscribe for Season Two, available now.

 
 
Around the Nation

THE NEW SOONER BOOM Oklahoma used to be known for its harsh drug laws. In the latest POLITICO Dispatch, cannabis editor Paul Demko explains how one of the reddest states became the nation's hottest weed market.

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Listen to the latest POLITICO Dispatch podcast

Nightly Number

4,224

The number of pages in the seven-book Harry Potter series, according to Scholastic. The funding and coronavirus stimulus bill released today is 5,593 pages long. (h/t Kyle Cheney)

Parting Words

BARR'S CLOSING TIMEAttorney General William Barr seems at peace — if a bit downcast — over the prospect of leaving office while publicly at odds with Trump on several fronts. During a final news conference at Justice Department headquarters today, Barr did little if anything to hide his disagreements with the president on topics such as election fraud and the handling of the ongoing criminal investigation into Hunter Biden, Nick Niedzwiadek and Josh Gerstein write.

Below, a collection of some of Barr's final thoughts:

On Hunter Biden: "I think to the extent there's an investigation, I think that it's being handled responsibly and professionally currently within the department. To this point I have not seen a reason to appoint a special counsel, and I have no plan to do so before I leave."

On seizing voting machines: "I see no basis now for seizing machines by the federal government — wholesale seizures of machines by the federal government."

On an election fraud special counsel: "If I thought a special counsel at this stage was the right tool and was appropriate, I would name one, but I haven't and I'm not going to."

On his second stint as attorney general: "I knew I was signing up for a difficult assignment at this department. There were rough times, and I came in because I felt that I could help lead the DOJ during this particular period. And I don't regret that at all. I don't regret coming in."

 

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