Thursday, October 22, 2020

👻 Snap's storied revenge

...and Netflix's subscripturation problem
October 22nd
Disclosures
 

Snap getting freaky with the filters

 
 
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Hey Snackers,

If you thought your Trader Joe's haul was pumpkin-extreme, think again: a man just won the "Pumpkin Super Bowl" with a 2,350-pound gourd named Tiger King. A lot to digest there.

Stocks ticked down yesterday as stimulus deal talks continued without any concrete progress (as usual). The White House is aiming to have some kind of deal done by tomorrow.

NSFW

Snap hits a record on a wow-worthy quarter (it got its Facebook revenge)

Who didn't get corona-ghosted last quarter... Snap stock soared ~30% to an all-time high after the little ghost reported expectation-smashing earnings. You probably noticed more ads appearing every 5 seconds as you tried to watch "Kylie sizzles on Capri beach" and "Oddly Satisfying."

  • Sales shot up 52% as advertisers started spending again, compared to growth of 17% in the previous quarter.
  • Daily users grew 18% to 249M — that's equivalent to 75% of the US population.
  • Snap's loss shrank 12%, but the 9-year-old company still isn't profitable.

Zucking revenge... Snap's growth slowed big time after Facebook's Instagram copied its game-changing Stories back in 2016. But last quarter, Snap profited off FB's misfortune: earnings were boosted by the FB ad boycott, as marketers shifted spend to Snap. Also: since TikTok was banned in India, Snap more than doubled its users in the world's 2nd most populous country.

  • Snap has done a lot this year, launching new features from Mini apps to TikTok rivaling Sounds to the (in)famous anime filter.
  • There's a lot you can do on Snap now besides sending double chin pics, from meditating with Headspace to Shazaming songs to identifying plant species.
THE TAKEAWAY

Snap got lucky... with the FB boycott and the TikTok ban saga. Now the question is: can it keep up the growth and users it gained last quarter? Snap's CFO said that it's not clear whether pumped-up ad demand will stick. But investors ignored that, boosting the stock on the surprising growth.

Flix

Netflix stock slumps on slowing subscriber growth and subscripturation

Just like Emily in Paris... Netflix's quarter didn't go as planned. Netflix added just 2.2M subscribers in its third quarter, less than the 2.5M it forecast and waaay less than the 3.6M analysts expected. Netflix stock dropped 7% because in the markets, everything is relative:

  • Netflix added nearly 16M subscribers in the 1st quarter of this year, and over 10M in Q2, making its latest quarter look even worse.
  • It's forecasting just 6M new subs this quarter, and expects paid subscriber additions to be down for the first half of 2021.

The boom is over... Netflix saw explosive growth during the first half of the year, as we hibernated with our laptops and instant ramen. It became a utility (gas, electric, and Flix) — but that also led to more subscripturation (aka: subscription saturation).

  • Netflix already takes up 72% of US home streaming time. Plus, consumers are now spoilt for choice with newbie streamers like Disney+ (RIP Quibi). That's why...
  • Netflix added only 180K subscribers in the US and Canada. Subscribers in the Asia-Pacific region were the largest growth contributors, making up 46% of all newbie additions.
THE TAKEAWAY

Netflix needs to get creative to reach non-streamers... It has 200M paying subscribers, but its next 100M will probably be streaming virgins — everyone else is over-subscribed. That's why Netflix is looking to emerging markets like India and Brazil for future growth. It's even offering a free, 48-hour streaming event in India — and it probably won't even ask for payment info.

Electrify

After 10 years, GM resurrects the gas-guzzling Hummer as an EV monster

Are We There Yet?... Like the 2005 Ice Cube family classic, the mid-2000s were filled with gas-guzzling cars that could fit entire football teams (RIP Lincoln Navigator). Now GM is bringing bulky back by reviving the Hummer, which it discontinued in 2009 when it went bankrupt. But now it's the opposite of a gas-guzzler:

  • The world's first all-electric supertruck: What GM unveiled in a (mildly terrifying) commercial during the World Series on Tuesday.
  • GM's Hummer EV will be an electric pickup beast with 1K horsepower that goes zero to 60 in three seconds. BTW: LeBron is repping.

Smells Musky... GM has made big moves in the EV world, and is now competing against Tesla with the Hummer. It's set to go on sale in a year – likely ahead of Elon's Cybertruck.

  • $20B: How much GM plans to invest in autonomous and all-electric vehicles through 2025, led by the Hummer pickup.
  • $2B: How much GM just said it's pouring into factories to build its Cadillac EV. It plans to launch 22 new electrified vehicles by 2023.
  • $2B: How much GM was going to hand over to produce cars for e-truck startup Nikola. That's on ice after fraud allegations against the startup.
THE TAKEAWAY

This is a mainstream milestone for EVs... Everyone's talking about Tesla, but EVs were just 2.6% of global car sales in 2019. GM's sustainable version of its nostalgic, ultra-unsustainable car could lure more non-EV people to the electric side.

What else we're Snackin'
  • S3XY: Tesla reported expectation-beating earnings in its fifth-straight profitable quarter — it notched a record 139K deliveries.
  • Quiti: Mobile streaming app Quibi, which raised a whopping $1.75B before launching, is shutting down after a lackluster 6-month run.
  • Revv: AutoNation, the US' largest auto dealership, had its "absolute best quarter ever" as we swapped subway rides and Ubers for cars.
  • E-drama: Shares of troubled electric truck startup Nikola jumped after a GM exec ignited hopes of keeping their partnership deal alive.
  • Sad: Disney says CA has set "unworkable" rules for theme park reopenings. The Happiest Place on Earth has to stay closed for now.
  • Pill: OxyContin-maker Purdue Pharma reaches an $8.3B settlement after agreeing to plead guilty to fueling the opioid crisis.

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The Snacks Daily Podcast

It's the first ever I-IPO — Influencer Initial Public Offering.

Italian social media star Chiara Ferragni wants to take her 22M followers public. But will her "clothing-to-lifestyle persona" go viral as a stock?

Tune into our trendy 15-minute pod to hear why this is the biggest test yet for the influencer business model (pun intended).

Thursday

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Snap, Tesla, and Disney

ID: 1379683

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