News : POLITICO California Playbook: AFFIRMATIVE ACTION sinking, 'SPLIT ROLL' close — 49ERS’ YORK spends big on SANTA CLARA races — QUIBI implodes — PELOSI: COVID deal may happen post-election

Thursday, October 22, 2020

POLITICO California Playbook: AFFIRMATIVE ACTION sinking, 'SPLIT ROLL' close — 49ERS’ YORK spends big on SANTA CLARA races — QUIBI implodes — PELOSI: COVID deal may happen post-election

Oct 22, 2020

By Jeremy B. White, Carla Marinucci, Graph Massara and Mackenzie Hawkins

Presented by Noom

THE BUZZ: With two generational do-overs on the November ballot, California voters may stick to the status quo.

Propositions 15 and 16 seek to undo or modify the decisions of voters past: Prop 15 by raising commercial property taxes that were curtailed by 1978's Prop 13, and Prop 16 by dissolving the affirmative action ban voters passed via Prop 209 back in 1996. In both cases, supporters were counting on a changed electorate and surging liberal turnout — and the embrace of formidable California Democrats like Gov. Gavin Newsom — to forge a different path forward.

But both measures could fail, according to a new Public Policy Institute of California poll that was conducted after voters across the state had received their ballots in the mail earlier this month. Prop 15 is hovering below majority support, with 49 percent of likely voters backing it and 45 percent planning to vote no. That's positive news compared to the dire situation for Prop 16; it's deep underwater, with half of likely voters opposing it compared to just 37 percent support.

A detail of Proposition 15 arguments as seen on Oct. 15, 2020.

A detail of Proposition 15 arguments as seen on Oct. 15, 2020. | Rodin Eckenroth/Getty Images

DIGGING DEEPER: Prop 15's numbers have held fairly steady as business opponents and labor backers have bombarded voters with millions of dollars worth of advertising. Polls consistently place the initiative's support at around the 50 percent mark. PPIC's poll, with a 4.3 percent margin of error, provides the latest evidence that the outcome for Prop 15 is likely to be tight. We may not know the result until days after election night, when the late-arriving ballots have been counted.

But it's hard to see affirmative action's path to victory. It has failed to gain traction in the polls despite the proponents wielding a massive cash advantage and touting the support of elected officials like Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.). And critical segments of the electorate remain unmoved. Supporters are selling Prop 16 as an equity measure that will empower women and minorities, and they had hoped that a more diverse generation of voters would have a different approach than their 1996 forebears. But women, Latinos and 18- to 44-year-old likely voters were all more likely to vote no than yes.

APPROVAL AND PRIORITIES: Newsom's popularity in the state continues to eclipse that of frenemy President Donald Trump . Their numbers are inverses of each other on job performance (Newsom gets 58 percent approval among adults, versus Trump's 35 percent), a gap that expands on the issue of coronavirus management (Newsom 61 percent approval among adults, versus Trump 32 percent). Those strong approval numbers are important for the governor, given that a clear plurality of Californians called the coronavirus the preeminent issue facing our state, followed by the economy; housing and homelessness fell in importance by a few spots.

VACCINE VAGARIES: Managing the pandemic will include overseeing incremental vaccine distribution, and that will be a lengthy process: Newsom emphasized this week that health care workers will get priority and most Californians will have to wait until some time next year. But many Californians are skeptical of its efficacy. Fully 40 percent told PPIC they would not get the vaccine if it were available tomorrow.

BUENOS DÍAS, good Thursday morning. Tonight is the final presidential debate, so get those California topic bingo cards ready (and maybe a stiff drink). Before we get there, the Senate Judiciary Committee is scheduled to vote on the confirmation of Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett — and Democrats are planning to boycott what Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer called a "sham process."

QUOTE OF THE DAY: "There's a difference between dominance and excellence." Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt on the company's antitrust trouble, via the WSJ's Rob Copeland.

TWEET OF THE DAY: Sexual misconduct watchdog Time's Up @TIMESUPNOW on allegations against top Eric Garcetti aide Rick Jacobs: "We've heard enough - first from @yashar and now the @latimes. It's time for a thorough and transparent investigation into all the allegations here. #TIMESUP"

WHERE'S GAVIN? Nothing official announced.

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TOP TALKERS

YORK'S SANTA CLARA PLAY — "49ers owner Jed York sinks $3M into Santa Clara council elections," by POLITICO's Carla Marinucci: York, whose family grew the NFL team into a multibillion-dollar enterprise, is spending big political money after years of feuding with city leaders over everything from youth soccer fields to rent owed during coronavirus shutdowns. He's dropped $1.5 million in the last week alone, and his total campaign spending breaks down to $100 per registered voter in the four city council districts he's targeting. It's an unprecedented amount of cash in a city that has a voluntary candidate spending limit of $25,000.

The team owner has a ripe opportunity. Two open seats are on the Nov. 3 ballot, while two incumbents running for re-election face criticism for working with Mayor Lisa Gillmor to protect at-large city contests despite a 2018 Voting Rights Act order intended to diversify the council by creating six districts. Five white members currently fill six seats despite white residents comprising only about 40 percent of the city's population.

BLOW TO KATZENBERG AND WHITMAN — "Quibi Is Shutting Down as Problems Mount ," by the WSJ's Benjamin Mullin, Joe Flint and Maureen Farrell: "The streaming service … has been plagued with problems since it launched in April, facing lower-than-expected viewership, disappointing download numbers and a lawsuit from a well-capitalized foe."

EMOTIONAL ROLLERCOASTER — "California theme parks call Newsom rules 'offensive,' say litigation possible," by POLITICO's Victoria Colliver: Executives from the state's largest theme parks — including Disneyland, Universal Studios and Legoland California — raised objections to Gov. Gavin Newsom's new requirements that their counties must have very low infection rates before they can reopen. They contended that their industry is being treated unfairly compared to others.

OK, GOOGLE — "Google AI Tech Will Be Used for Virtual Border Wall, CBP Contract Shows ," by the Intercept's Lee Fang and Sam Biddle: "Not only is Google becoming involved in implementing the Trump administration's border policy, the contract brings the company into the orbit of one of President Donald Trump's biggest boosters among tech executives."

CORONAVIRUS UPDATES

HOLIDAY FEARS — "California has escaped the national surge in coronavirus cases. But new dangers lie ahead," by the LA Times' Rong-Gong Lin: Experts "credit Gov. Gavin Newsom's overhauled system — introduced Aug. 28 and much tougher than the state's disastrous first reopening — as a big reason for California having so far staved off a new surge in cases."

WINE COUNTRY OUTLIER — "Why Sonoma is the only Bay Area county stuck in the strictest reopening tier," by the SF Chronicle's Kellie Hwang: "The reasons, officials, experts and community members say, are a combination of socioeconomic factors and a response that did not ramp up fast enough to put a lid on the virus while the county was moving quickly to reopen in the summer."

— "Sacramento County workers alarmed by COVID-19 outbreaks, lack of deep cleaning in offices," by the Sac Bee's Michael Finch and Tony Bizjak.

— "Pelosi suggests coronavirus relief deal could slip past November elections," by POLITICO's Nick Niedzwiadek: Talks between the speaker and White House over a coronavirus relief package have remained at an impasse for months, though Pelosi said Tuesday that she and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are "on a path" to a deal. But a larger relief agreement has met resistance in the GOP-controlled Senate, where some Republicans have blanched at a multi-trillion dollar price tag.

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PRESIDENTIAL PURSUIT

— "What the Google suit may look like if Biden wins," by POLITICO's Leah Nylen: Many in Biden's party are pushing for strong action against Google. Democratic state attorneys general refused to join the case the Justice Department filed Tuesday because they want to file a broader and more aggressive complaint. Biden is expected to take his cues for how to handle the case from those same Democratic AGs.

— "After being her own boss, Kamala Harris embraces new role as Biden's No. 2," by the LA Times' Mark Z. Barabak and Melanie Mason: "It is no small adjustment. But she has, by many accounts, acquitted herself well, easing the concern of some in the Biden camp who worried about Harris' ambitions and ability to subsume her personal interest and apply her skills wholly in the service of someone else."

CAMPAIGN MODE

BALLOT BOX LATEST: The California Republican Party won a skirmish yesterday in its battle with the state over ballot collection. A judge rejected the California Department of Justice's request for a court order compelling the CAGOP to explain by Friday why it is refusing to turn over information about the locations of ballot collection boxes and the voters who have used them. The ruling was specifically about the timing, rather than the underlying question of what the CAGOP must release.

CA-50 SHIFT: The Cook Political Report sees the vacant CA-50 becoming more competitive, and has shifted the San Diego-area seat from "likely Republican" to "leans Republican." Former Rep. Darrell Issa is trying to return to Congress and keep the seat in the GOP column after former Republican Rep. Duncan Hunter resigned and then pleaded guilty to misusing campaign funds; Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar is hoping to overcome Republicans' double-digit registration edge.

PROP 15 — " Why do we keep voting on this? Exploring Prop. 13's 'Tax Revolt Family Tree,'" by CalMatters' Ben Christopher: "Since Prop. 13, the state has voted 33 times on potential amendments to it. These offshoots of Prop. 13 have sprouted their own offshoots, adding additions to revisions to edits of the original text. Forty-two years later, the tree first planted in 1978 has gotten mighty tangled."

PROP 16 — " Why some Asian Americans oppose the affirmative action measure on the California ballot," by the Sac Bee's Ashley Wong.

PROP 22 POSTAGE — "Cash-rich, Uber-backed Prop. 22 campaign scrimps on postage," by the SF Chronicle's Carolyn Said: "Proposition 22, the ballot measure to exempt Uber and Lyft drivers and other gig workers from being employees, got a nonprofit postal permit for its deluge of glossy mailers, allowing it to save millions on postage. U.S. Postal Service regulations specifically say that political organizations other than political parties are not eligible. Yes on 22's lawyers said the campaign is legitimately entitled to its nonprofit mailing status and is not a "political organization" as that regulation defines it."

IMPACT — " Uber weighs California overhaul if ballot measure on workers fails," by the WSJ's Preetika Rana.

ELECTIONLAND: POLITICO is partnering with Electionland , a ProPublica project tracking problems that can prevent eligible voters from casting their ballots in California and around the country. We're part of a coalition of U.S. newsrooms that are investigating issues related to voter registration, pandemic-related changes to voting, the shift to vote-by-mail, cybersecurity, voter education, misinformation and more. Tell us here if you're having trouble voting.

CALIFORNIA AND THE CAPITOL CORRIDOR

CARB ALLEGATIONS — Black employees call out systemic racism at California Air Resources Board, by POLITICO's Debra Kahn: The Sept. 4 letter from a "group of concerned Black employees" includes two dozen accounts of racist or biased behavior at the agency and an "action plan" that calls for appointing at least one Black board member and two other people of color to fill upcoming vacancies on the board that has 14 voting members and two lawmakers in non-voting positions.

— "What Caused August's Rolling Blackouts? Experts Say It's Still Not Totally Clear ," by KQED's Lily Jamali.

FEDS' FIREFIGHT — "As wildfires explode in the West, Forest Service can't afford prevention efforts," by the LA Times' Anna M. Phillips: "Throughout California, Oregon and other Western states, the Forest Service has a growing backlog of millions of acres of forest management projects that are ready to go, requiring only funding and manpower to complete."

MASKS OFF — "After a meeting flouting COVID rules, two supervisors tell Sacramento County CEO to resign," by the Sac Bee's Marcus Bretón: "[Nav] Gill's decision to hold a face-to-face gathering of his senior staff Oct. 15 in an indoor conference room put as many as 40 to 45 people at risk of contracting the coronavirus."

— " California labor traffickers dodge convictions after state crackdown, report says," by the Sac Bee's Jeong Park: "The commission identified a number of flaws in the state's policies, stemming from poor coordination between agencies and a lack of investment that has created a patchwork of programs."

POLITICO'S CALIFORNIA BALLOT TRACKER: No state does ballot initiatives quite like California, and interest groups are spending hundreds of millions of dollars to sway voters. It's all here in POLITICO's guide to California's 2020 ballot initiatives.

SILICON VALLEYLAND

— "Facebook Manipulated the News You See to Appease Republicans, Insiders Say," by Mother Jones' Monika Bauerlein and Clara Jeffery: "Executives were even shown a slide presentation that highlighted the impact of the second iteration on about a dozen specific publishers—and Mother Jones was singled out as one that would suffer, while the conservative site the Daily Wire was identified as one that would benefit."

GOOGLE PAYBACK — "Big Tech's Professional Opponents Strike at Google," by NYT's Adam Satariano and David McCabe: "Bolstered by millions of dollars from high-profile sponsors like the financier George Soros and the Facebook co-founder Chris Hughes, they have coalesced to become a new class of professional tech skeptic."

— "Tesla is putting 'self-driving' in the hands of drivers amid criticism the tech is not ready," by WaPo's Faiz Siddiqui: "Tesla's technology can detect vehicles and pedestrians in the road and some objects such as trees, but it cannot always see the true shape or depth of the obstacles it encounters, according to some safety experts."

HOLLYWOODLAND

— "Charlotte Kirk legal saga may have major impact on #MeToo cases," by the Hollywood Reporter's Tatiana Siegel and Eriq Gardner.

BROOKS FOR BIDEN — " Mel Brooks endorses Joe Biden for president in first ever political video: 'Joe Will Keep Us Going,'" by Deadline's Alexandra Del Rosario.

GLOBAL PULSE, GLOBAL PURPOSE: At a high-stakes moment when global health has become a household concern, it is pivotal to keep up with the politics and policy driving change. Global Pulse connects leaders, policymakers and advocates to the people and politics driving global health. Join the conversation and subscribe today for this new weekly newsletter.

CANNABIS COUNTRY

— "Harborside acquires San Francisco social equity marijuana retailer," via Marijuana Business Daily.

FOUR YEARS ON — " California's marijuana legalization law, Prop 64, is broken and needs reform," by Harborside co-founder Andrew DeAngelo in Marijuana Business Daily.

— "US cannabis harvest price report 2020," by Leafly's David Downs.

MIXTAPE

— "Religious California state job applicant lost offer over 'loyalty oath,' lawsuit says," by the Sac Bee's Sam Stanton.

— " These houses are a godsend to the would-be homeless but a menace to the Fire Department," by the LA Times' Doug Smith.

— "Investigation concludes San Diego police officers were justified in arresting woman in Ocean Beach," by the San Diego Union-Tribune's David Hernandez.

— "Calls intensify for DA to reopen probe into Buena Park police shooting of 19-year-old David Sullivan," by Voice of OC's Brandon Pho.

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