| | | | | | | Generate | | By Ben Geman ·Oct 22, 2020 | | Welcome back. Today's Smart Brevity count: 1,221 words, 4.6 minutes. 🎵And Paul Simon's album "Still Crazy After All These Years" turns 45 this weekend, so it provides today's intro tune... | | | | | | 1 big thing: Cities' lagging climate progress |  Reproduced from the Brookings Institution; Chart: Axios Visuals A just-published Brookings Institution analysis of U.S. cities' pledges to cut carbon emissions reveals very mixed results. Why it matters: The potential — and limits — of city and state initiatives have gotten more attention amid President Trump's scuttling of Obama-era national policies. The big picture: It finds "laudable aspirations, notable GHG reductions in some cases, and less auspicious outcomes in most other cities." The state of play: The authors undertook the difficult task of comparing cities' emissions-cutting vows and progress toward meeting them. - Plans have varying baseline years, targets and so forth, and the analysis also has to grapple with what might happen in the absence of the plans.
- There's also a time-lag in getting information, but that map above is close to the current state of play, Brookings analyst Mark Muro said.
Where it stands: Among the 100 most populous U.S. cities, only 45 have both emissions-cutting targets and a detailed emissions tally — or "inventory" — to gauge them against. - Seventeen of those 45 have rolled out new or upgraded plans since Trump took office.
- These cities' pledges often align with the goal of cutting emissions by 80% by 2050.
- That's aggressive but falls short of what's needed globally to hold warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, the study notes.
- Another 22 of these 100 cities have vowed emissions cuts but lack specific targets or completed inventories.
By the numbers: If the 45 cities with plans and baseline data successfully follow through, it would cut emissions by an estimated 365 million metric tons of CO2-equivalent annually by 2050. - That's the equivalent of taking 79 million passenger vehicles off the roads, the report states.
- Viewed another way, that "translates to roughly 6% of total U.S. GHG emissions in 2017," it finds.
- That's "not insignificant," but also far from the net-zero by 2050 levels consistent with the very ambitious 1.5°C goal.
Threat level: Lots of cities are falling behind on their pledges. - Of 32 cities that conducted new inventories since 2010, 26 have cut emissions compared to baseline levels, led by L.A.'s 47% cut below 1990 levels. Six have seen increases, led by Tucson, Arizona's growth.
- "Overall, about two-thirds of cities are currently lagging their targeted emission levels." On average, cities analyzed would need to cut emissions by 64% by 2050 to meet their goals.
What's next: The report offers ways to bolster and expand city initiatives. Two examples: More philanthropic help for small and midsized cities; and more big-city efforts to decarbonize power generated outside their borders by working with surrounding communities, regional governments and other stakeholders. Go deeper: Big Cities Are Cutting Serious Carbon, But Could Do Much More (Greentech Media) |     | | | | | | 2. Tesla's black ink could be its new normal |  Data: FactSet; Chart: Danielle Alberti/Axios Tesla's stock is up in premarket trading after the electric automaker reported its fifth consecutive profitable quarter Wednesday — taking in $331 million — alongside a record number of vehicle deliveries. What they're saying: Wedbush Securities analyst Daniel Ives, in a note, highlighted that Tesla's reported $2.4 billion in cash from operations beat their estimate as "Tesla continues to put the red ink in the rear view mirror." Overall, "this sustained level of profitability is key for the bulls and speaks to a business model which is staying out of the red ink despite this unprecedented COVID-19 dark storm," he writes. Why it matters: Tesla has become the world's most valuable automaker. It's on the longest money-making streak in company history, despite disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic, Axios' Courtenay Brown reports. Driving the news: Here's more via Courtenay...Tesla said it had the capacity to produce and deliver 500,000 cars by the end of the year, per a release, but achieving the closely watched goal it set before the pandemic hit "has become more difficult." - The company said meeting its objective hinges in part on ramping up production of the Model Y SUV, as well as production at its factory in Shanghai.
- Tesla has delivered 318,350 vehicles so far this year.
Yes, but: The automaker made $397 million from the sale of regulatory emission credits to other automakers, a move that's helped boost revenue and profit at Tesla for years. - That's over 5% of Tesla's automotive revenue in Q3. It's also more than double what it made from those sales this time last year.
- The company wouldn't have been profitable this quarter without the revenue from the credit sales, as Reuters notes.
Courtenay has more here. | | | | | | | | 3. The climate threat to U.S. LNG | | Via Axios' Amy Harder...The French government has delayed and might nix a $7 billion deal to import U.S. liquefied natural gas over concerns about climate change, Politico and a French news site reported. Why it matters: It's the latest and one of the most concrete signs of what I call the fossil-fuel musical chairs. As the world looks to cut heat-trapping emissions, oil and gas produced with comparatively lower emissions will prevail. How it works: Concerns center on flaring (essentially wasting) of the potent greenhouse gas methane. This particular LNG — slated to be exported by the company NextDecade — comes from gas produced in the Permian Basin spanning Texas and New Mexico, a region that's faced criticism for high levels of flaring. The big picture: The Trump administration has rolled back federal methane regulations, despite some big oil companies opposing such a move. Meanwhile, the European Union just announced a strategy to cut down on such emissions. What we're watching: A potential Biden administration would reinstate the rules Trump is rolling back. Go deeper: Fossil fuels bracing for crude game of musical chairs | | | | | | | | 4. Where it stands: Big Oil lobbying | | Third-quarter federal lobbying reports are largely in so let's take a look at some big players in the oil-and-gas industry. Why it matters: The filings reveal bills and topics companies lobbied on, and an overall look at money spent. The big picture: The industry's tallies are lower than in many past years, but they're still significant sums. And they could rise again. Look for a burst of activity if Democrats win the White House and Senate (or even just the former), which would upend the policy landscape. *** Speaking of Exxon, Bloomberg reports the company "plans to lay off an unspecified number of employees as low oil prices force the company to delay major projects, Chief Executive Officer Darren Woods said in an email to staff." | | | | | | | | 5. Quote of the day | | "[M]ost investors are not going to look at the small companies to invest in, especially with the changing world in regard to ESG and probably reaching peak oil demand over the next 10 years." Who said it: Via the Financial Times, that's Scott Sheffield, CEO of the big independent oil producer Pioneer Natural Resources, on the state of play in the U.S. shale patch. Driving the news: The FT spoke with Sheffield on the heels of Pioneer announcing its acquisition of Parsley Energy, one of several big deals of late bringing new consolidation to the U.S. oil industry. Why it matters: Sheffield of course isn't a neutral observer here, but the comments nonetheless provide an insider's assessment of where things stand in the battered U.S. industry. | | | | | | | | Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters.
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