THE LAST DEBATE of the presidential election is tonight in Nashville, and Election Day is 12 DAYS away. We've spilled much ink over the last four years painstakingly detailing President DONALD TRUMP'S governing challenges. BUT WITH THE TRANSITION kicking into gear -- it's larger and more aggressive than BARACK OBAMA'S was in 2008, sources tell us -- let's turn our attention to the power and personal dynamics a president JOE BIDEN would face. This does not amount to a prediction he will win, but rather an exploration of the challenges and opportunities he'd confront. BIDEN would come into power facing a Democratic Party with high hopes, anxious for change, wary of centrism and full of demands after four years of TRUMP in the White House. THE HOUSE will almost certainly be led by NANCY PELOSI, who, given her long experience as speaker, will immediately become the most powerful leader in Washington. But she'll be sitting atop a volcano -- a Democratic Caucus filled with lawmakers who would loudly look to blow up the system after two or four years serving alongside TRUMP. THE SENATE, should Democrats win, will be led by BIDEN'S former colleague CHUCK SCHUMER of New York, a savvy but cautious leader. Blowing up the filibuster and expanding the Supreme Court are two of the most obvious fights he'll face. SCHUMER would be up for reelection in 2022. Running the Senate while in cycle is extraordinarily challenging, let alone as majority leader. He would need to govern with one eye on a potential primary challenge from the likes of Rep. ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ. IF REPUBLICANS KEEP THE SENATE MAJORITY, BIDEN'S troubles would be compounded, if not insurmountable. BIDEN imagines a Washington that doesn't exist -- at least at the moment -- a town where partisan affiliations fall away. Should Republicans lose the majority, BIDEN would face a minority led by MITCH MCCONNELL, a ruthless Capitol knife fighter who would -- if past is precedent -- be looking to undermine BIDEN and win back the majority in 2022. BIDEN WOULD FACE EARLY GOVERNING CHALLENGES: a government funding fight at some point in the first six months, a battle over whether to blow up the filibuster, more Covid relief and a federal bureaucracy plundered by TRUMP. This is not the Democratic Party of 2008 nor the government of that era, and these challenges are far steeper than those OBAMA faced in 2009. NOT TO MENTION: BIDEN would face an early challenge in filling a Cabinet that must be the most diverse of all time and, according to the left, bereft of corporate executive experience. He'd have to cast a wider net over a narrower pool of candidates than any president in memory. BIDEN has a large circle after nearly five decades in Washington, and keeping all those people happy -- which he is inclined to do -- would be a challenge. YOU MIGHT SUM UP BIDEN'S DOMESTIC TASK AS THIS: balancing the left's desire for radical change with his own inclination toward radical normalcy. ON A GLOBAL LEVEL, BIDEN would face a world uncertain of America's place -- a dynamic the NYT's STEVEN ERLANGER explores this morning from Brussels. … BUT REMEMBER THIS?: PLAYBOOK FLASHBACK, HEADLINE 4 YEARS AGO TODAY: "TRUMP begins to ponder LOSING; 5 states, 3 events today," with a link to a JENNA JOHNSON story in the WaPo, from Fletcher, N.C.: "As he took the stage here in this mountain town Friday afternoon, Donald Trump was as subdued as the modest crowd that turned out to see him. He complained about the usual things -- the dishonest media, his 'corrupt' rival Hillary Clinton -- but his voice was hoarse and his heart didn't seem in it. He also promised to do all that he could to win, but he explained why he might lose. "'What a waste of time if we don't pull this off,' Trump said. 'You know, these guys have said: "It doesn't matter if you win or lose. There's never been a movement like this in the history of this country." I say, it matters to me if we win or lose. So I'll have over $100 million of my own money in this campaign.'" … AND, AGAIN, FOUR YEARS LATER: NANCY COOK and MERIDITH MCGRAW: "Trump seeds the ground for possible loss with personal attacks" NYT'S ADAM NAGOURNEY on A1: "Can Trump Win? Yes. But the Path Is Narrow and Difficult": "[I]nterviews with 21 Republican and Democratic strategists, many of whom have worked for other presidential campaigns over the past 30 years, suggest that Mr. Trump will need some 11th-hour disruptions in the race. That might include a bad stumble by Mr. Biden in the debate on Thursday or on the trail; court rulings or Republican tactics that suppress the Democratic vote; and a G.O.P. ground game that turns out voters who may not have been counted by pollsters. "And Mr. Trump will need to bring discipline to the campaign trail that has so far eluded him, the strategists say. That will mean presenting a forceful and uncluttered appeal that he is better able than Mr. Biden to rebuild the economy, while trying yet again to draw a contrast between himself and an opponent he has sought to portray as ideologically too far to the left to run the nation." NEW FOX NEWS POLLS -- "Trump gains in Ohio, Biden ahead in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin," by Dana Blaton DRIVING TODAY: SENATE JUDICIARY will vote out AMY CONEY BARRETT'S nomination at a hearing that starts at 9 a.m. … PELOSI will hold a news conference at 10:45 a.m. Good Thursday morning. Happy debate day. PK ON WASHINGTON'S MOST EAGER MAN … WAPO'S PAUL KANE: "Mnuchin is a man alone as Senate Republicans dig in against stimulus deal" DEBATE PREP … DAVID SIDERS: "'Biden was simply seen as the better human': Why Trump needs to tone it down in the debate": "Donald Trump will land in Nashville for tonight's debate badly cornered in his re-election campaign. He's been here before. Back in 2016, when he approached the lectern for his final debate against Hillary Clinton, Trump responded by airing grievances against the 'corrupt' media, disparaging Clinton as a 'criminal' and refusing to commit to abide by the election results. "Trump was widely viewed as the loser of that debate. Yet he also demonstrated a level of self-restraint, suggesting the president is capable of dialing back the excesses that proved disastrous in his first debate with Joe Biden — when he needs to. 'People tend to forget that he came to a relatively cogent and disciplined closing argument in 2016 — the idea that we needed to upend the establishment,' said Michael Steel, a Republican strategist. "Tonight, Steel said, Trump will likely do what he has been doing haphazardly for months — arguing that he built a strong economy and that as soon as a coronavirus vaccine becomes available 'we can return to that impressive prosperity.'" POLITICO THE HUNTER ANGLE … KYLE CHENEY, NATASHA BERTRAND and ANDREW DESIDERIO: "Hunter Biden, Rudy Giuliani and the 'hard drive from hell'" OBAMA'S CLOSING ARGUMENT -- "'Character matters,' Obama tells a drive-in rally for Biden at South Philly's stadium complex," by the Philadelphia Inquirer's Julia Terruso and Sean Collins Walsh: "Former President Barack Obama delivered a punishing rebuke of his successor Donald Trump's tenure and a clarion call to supporters for his old running mate Joe Biden at a drive-in rally outside Citizens Bank Park as the sun set Wednesday night. Trump's tone and the misinformation he spreads have poisoned American political discourse, Obama said on his first day stumping for Biden on the 2020 campaign trail." MORE DETAILS EMERGING -- "Iran behind threatening pro-Trump emails to U.S. voters, feds say," by Eric Geller: "The Iranian government is behind recent emails threatening Americans with retribution if they do not vote to reelect President Donald Trump, national security officials said on Wednesday. In addition, Iran and Russia have obtained the voter registration data of some Americans, Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe said during an abruptly scheduled evening news conference. "The intelligence community has 'seen Iran sending spoofed emails designed to intimidate voters, incite social unrest and damage President Trump,' Ratcliffe said — though Democrats quickly disputed the last part of his statement. "The threatening emails, purportedly sent by a far-right extremist group called the Proud Boys, told recipients, 'You will vote for Trump on Election Day or we will come after you. Change your party affiliation to Republican to let us know you received our message and will comply.' The messages also claimed that the senders had breached America's 'entire voting infrastructure' and would be able to tell how the recipients voted." POLITICO ODDS ON WRAY AND ESPER GONE AFTER ELECTION? -- "Trump weighs firing FBI director after election as frustration with Wray, Barr grows," by WaPo's Devlin Barrett and Josh Dawsey: "President Trump and his advisers have repeatedly discussed whether to fire FBI Director Christopher A. Wray after Election Day — a scenario that also could imperil the tenure of Attorney General William P. Barr as the president grows increasingly frustrated that federal law enforcement has not delivered his campaign the kind of last-minute boost that the FBI provided in 2016, according to people familiar with the matter. "The conversations among the president and senior aides stem in part from their disappointment that Wray in particular but Barr as well have not done what Trump had hoped — indicate that Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden, his son Hunter Biden or other Biden associates are under investigation, these people say. Like others, they spoke on the condition of anonymity to disclose internal discussions." ADAM CANCRYN and DAN DIAMOND: "An angry Azar floats plans to oust FDA's Hahn": "Infuriated by the FDA's defiance in a showdown over the Trump administration's standards for authorizing a coronavirus vaccine, health secretary Alex Azar has spent recent weeks openly plotting the ouster of FDA chief Stephen Hahn. "Azar has vented to allies within the Health and Human Services Department about his unhappiness with the top official in charge of the vaccine process, and discussed the prospect of seeking White House permission to remove him, a half-dozen current and former administration officials said. "During some of those conversations, he's gone as far as to float potential replacements for Hahn, said one current and two former administration officials familiar with the talks, identifying HHS testing czar Brett Giroir and a pair of career civil servants – FDA Principal Deputy Commissioner Amy Abernethy and longtime regulator Janet Woodcock – as prime candidates to step in as acting commissioner should Hahn be removed. "The discussions come amid deep frustration with Hahn over his insistence that a Covid-19 vaccine meet stricter-than-normal safety standards — a contentious decision that rendered it impossible for President Donald Trump to fulfill his oft-expressed desire for a vaccine just before Election Day." POLITICO BATTLE FOR THE SENATE … MARIANNE LEVINE: "Senators eschew debates in final campaign stretch" IS KANSAS THE 2020 VERSION OF 2008 MISSOURI? … WAPO'S ANNIE GOWEN in Tonganoxie, Kan.: "'Not a fair fight': In Kansas, GOP frustrated as money rolls in for Democrat and Senate race tightens" A BRIGHT SPOT FOR TRUMP -- "Around Atlanta, Many White Suburbanites Are Sticking With Trump," by NYT's Elaina Plott -- ATLANTA JOURNAL-CONSTITUTION: "Young Georgia voters are wild card in 2020 election," by Eric Stirgus: "A key factor in this election cycle is whether young Georgians will vote in large numbers. About one in five active Georgia voters are younger than 29. Recent history shows that if they vote, they can decide elections. "Traditionally, 18 to 29-year-olds vote at lower percentages than any age group. More than 150,000 young Georgians have cast ballots thus far, state data shows." TRUMP'S THURSDAY -- The president and first lady Melania Trump will leave the White House at 12:40 p.m. and travel to Nashville. They will arrive at 1:40 p.m. CDT and travel to Belmont University. They will leave at 2:50 p.m. en route to the JW Marriott Nashville. Trump will participate in a roundtable with supporters at 3 p.m. He and the first lady will depart for Belmont University at 7:20 p.m. The president will participate in the presidential debate at 8 p.m. Trump and the first lady will depart at 9:40 p.m. and return to Washington. They will arrive at the White House at 1 a.m. -- VP MIKE PENCE will leave Washington at 10:50 p.m. and travel to Waterford Township, Mich., where he will speak at a campaign rally at 12:35 p.m. He will depart at 2:25 p.m. and travel to Fort Wayne, Ind., where he will speak at another campaign rally at 4:30 p.m. Afterward, he will travel to Indianapolis. ON THE TRAIL … JOE and JILL BIDEN will travel to Nashville for the presidential debate. -- SEN. KAMALA HARRIS (D-Calif.) will participate in a "Women Mobilize for Biden" virtual rally. | 
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