Wednesday, January 8, 2025

LA wildfire victims have another problem

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By Natalie Fertig and Zack Colman

A home burns during the Eaton Fire in Altadena, Calif.

A home burns during the Eaton Fire in Altadena, Calif. today. | Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images

BEHIND THE BLAZE — As of this afternoon, more than 1,000 structures have burned in Los Angeles’ Pacific Palisades neighborhood in the last two days. The news gets worse — many of them recently lost the most important thing that families rely on when disaster strikes: insurance.

When national insurance company State Farm announced it would drop coverage for tens of thousands of Californians last year, the Pacific Palisades community suffered more policy non-renewals than anywhere in the state, according to a San Francisco Chronicle investigation that relied on California Department of Insurance data. The national insurer planned to scrap 1,626 of 2,342 policies in that zip code, or 69.4 percent.

It’s part of a larger trend: California had the nation’s fourth-highest insurance non-renewal rate in 2023 behind Florida, Louisiana and North Carolina, per a report published in December by the Senate Budget Committee. Coastal states face hurricanes and flooding in the East and wildfires in the West, and generally have the highest non-renewal rates in the country — but not exclusively. Nearly three percent of insurance plans in Florida were not renewed in 2023, the report found, compared to just 0.8 percent in 2018. In California, 1.7 percent were not renewed compared to 0.9 percent in 2018.

“[The non-renewals] are a signal of market distress,” Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), who commissioned the report as chair of the Senate Budget Committee in the last Congress, said today. “It’s deadly, deadly serious.”

Insurance is designed to protect homeowners from paying out of pocket for costly rebuilds. But affordability and availability in disaster-prone areas are shrinking as insurers recalculate risk, often driven by climate change that fuels more frequent and intense wildfires, hurricanes and floods.

Some states have tried to fill the gap left by private insurers: California, Colorado and Florida all have versions of a Fair Insurance Requirements Plan, a state-backed insurance plan intended as a last resort. The fires ravaging Los Angeles this week, however, could break the state’s 1960s-era FAIR plan, which has become increasingly popular in recent years in fire-prone areas and has been on the verge of bankruptcy for years.

Whitehouse has spent the last 2 years using his gavel to investigate insurers who drop coverage or hike rates in regions affected by climate change. He says the fires devastating the Los Angeles area show that few places in the country are safe from disruption.

“It’s kind of a shock to the system nationally, and it will make insurers even more cautious about climate-related property risks of any kind in any location,” Whitehouse said, adding it to the “multiple punch” of the Florida hurricanes and the devastation in 2024 in North Carolina.

In December, his Senate Budget Committee produced a report on the climate-driven insurance crisis that paints a bleak picture: The increase in non-renewal rates driven by the uptick in climate-related disasters, it says, will continue to destabilize insurance markets — and by extension, housing markets. Property values will continue to decrease for homes that cannot be protected, and could spark a repeat of the 2007-8 housing crisis.

“A home too endangered to insure will only become more endangered,” the report states.

There isn’t a lot Capitol Hill can do about it, however. The primary paths to solve this, Whitehouse says, are through programs like the flood insurance program, FEMA funding, and addressing climate change. Despite this, a few policy plans are in the works.

Ron Wyden is currently circulating legislation that would streamline federal processes to make communities as disaster-resistant as possible, says a spokesperson for the Oregon Democratic senator. A significant 2.4 percent of insurance policies were not renewed in Oregon’s heavily forested Josephine County in 2023, double the figure in 2018.

States like Oregon are issuing new regulations intended to make homes better able to withstand natural disasters, but Wyden’s office says the federal patchwork of regulations and incentives is complicated to navigate, uncoordinated, and often leaves tinderboxes mixed in alongside fire-resistant buildings. The patchwork makes it hard for insurers to calculate the risk, and therefore more likely to pull out or hike up rates to an unsustainable level. Wyden’s bill intends to help communities prove to insurance companies that they are coverable and should not be abandoned.

Being unable to predict the risk is the beginning of “the cascade that leads to the crash,” Whitehouse says. Shoveling money at FEMA doesn’t solve the problem — which he says can only be solved through addressing climate change.

“Moving the deck chairs around on the insurance industry Titanic may provide some temporary distraction,” Whitehouse said. “But when the day comes that this cascade begins, there’s no stopping it.”

Camille von Kaenel contributed reporting.

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s authors at nfertig@politico.com and zcolman@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @natsfert and @zcolman.

What'd I Miss?

— Garland prepares to release Jack Smith’s report on 2020 election subversion case against Trump: Attorney General Merrick Garland intends to publicly release special counsel Jack Smith’s final report detailing evidence that Donald Trump criminally conspired to subvert the 2020 election and disenfranchise millions of voters. But Garland will withhold from public release a second volume of the report describing Smith’s second case against Trump for amassing classified documents at Mar-a-Lago after leaving office in 2021. The Justice Department revealed Garland’s decision this morning in a court filing opposing Trump’s effort to block Smith from releasing his final report altogether, “since the President-elect is no longer a defendant in any Special Counsel matter.”

— Trump asks Supreme Court to block hush money sentencing: President-elect Donald Trump is asking the Supreme Court to halt his Friday sentencing for his hush money criminal conviction after a New York appeals court judge declined to intervene. Trump’s lawyers filed an emergency application with the high court early today after the New York appeals court on Tuesday turned down his request to indefinitely postpone the sentencing. The trial court judge scheduled to sentence Trump on Friday, Justice Juan Merchan, has indicated he doesn’t plan to send Trump to jail and will permit him to attend the proceeding virtually.

— Biden approves sweeping disaster declaration for SoCal fires: President Joe Biden approved a sweeping disaster declaration for the Southern California fires, committing a wide range of federal assistance to the region amid fears that President-elect Donald Trump would balk at helping out the Democratic bastion. Appearing with California Gov. Gavin Newsom at a fire station just outside the site of the devastating Palisades fire, Biden called the conflagrations “astounding.”

THE NEXT ADMINISTRATION

BEHIND SCHEDULE — With less than two weeks until Donald Trump takes the oath of office, only a small handful of his nominees appear on track for immediate confirmation — sparking tensions between the Senate GOP and Trump’s inner circle.

At a private lunch on Tuesday, Republican senators discussed whether they should — or even could, under law and Senate rules — advance Trump nominees without final FBI background checks, financial disclosures and other paperwork, according to a person in the room. They discussed whether they could at least hold confirmation hearings without documents submitted, holding off on final action until the process is complete. And the subject of nominations could come up again this evening, when Trump meets with Republican senators on Capitol Hill.

UNIMPRESSED — The new chair of the Senate committee that oversees the Department of Health and Human Services didn’t immediately endorse President-elect Donald Trump’s pick to lead the agency after meeting with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. today.

Bill Cassidy (R-La.) wrote in a tepid social media post following the meeting that he had a “frank” conversation with Kennedy and that the two spoke “at length” about vaccines. On Sunday, Cassidy, a doctor, told Fox News that Kennedy, who has for years contradicted health authorities by advocating against vaccination, was “wrong” about them.

AROUND THE WORLD

Herbert Kickl, leader of the far-right Austria Freedom Party, speaks to the media.

Herbert Kickl, leader of the far-right Austria Freedom Party, speaks to the media on Tuesday in Vienna. | Michael Gruber/Getty Images

ORBAN ADMIRER — Europe’s next national leader looks likely to come from the far right.

With Herbert Kickl in pole position to become chancellor of Austria, the European Union’s establishment is bracing for fresh torment ― and another punch in the guts in its stand against Russia’s Vladimir Putin.

Kickl, who would become Austria’s first far-right leader since World War II, has made no secret of admiring Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and is likely to follow a similar playbook: cozying up to the Kremlin, clashing with the EU mainstream, and pursuing hardline policies in areas like migration.

If his Freedom Party (FPÖ) takes charge, it would mean a swathe of the EU, from Hungary through Austria to Slovakia under outspoken Prime Minister Robert Fico ― and potentially to the Czech Republic, where former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš is leading in polls ahead of an election in October ― would be sympathetic toward Russia three years into Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. It also brings back disturbing memories for Brussels, which in 2000 saw the FPÖ under one of Kickl’s predecessors, Jörg Haider, become part of Austria’s governing coalition. At the time, other governments within the EU broke off bilateral contacts with Vienna.

LET ME IN — President-elect Donald Trump has invited Jair Bolsonaro to his upcoming inauguration, but the former Brazilian president may not be able to attend — he surrendered his passport to authorities while under investigation for allegedly helping plan and participate in a 2023 coup attempt in an effort to remain in office.

“My lawyer, Dr. Paulo Bueno, has already forwarded a request to Minister Alexandre de Moraes for me to have my passport returned so that I can attend this honorable and important historical event,” Bolsonaro wrote on X in Portuguese today, the two-year anniversary of the Jan. 8 coup attempt.

A week after the inauguration of current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, pro-Bolsonaro supporters stormed and ransacked government buildings in Brasilia, which has led to a slew of legal issues and comparisons to the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol as Brazil’s Federal Police accuse Bolsonaro of involvement in the scheme. The former president has denied any wrongdoing.

Nightly Number

40

The percentage decrease over the last decade of what the average in-state public university student pays in college tuition after financial aid and grants.

RADAR SWEEP

SLOW AND STEADY — The Mojave desert — the vast stretch between Las Vegas and Los Angeles — has for decades been an ideal place for people outside the law to hide evidence of crimes such as cars, toxic waste or, sometimes, dead bodies. They can lie there undiscovered for years until someone stumbles upon them. Increasingly, however, that’s happening to a group of field technicians who are walking the desert in search of or monitoring threatened tortoises — and finding human remains. For Outside Magazine, Mark Sundeen blends the story of a missing person with a deep profile of these scientists.

Parting Image

On this date in 1969: Family members of Sirhan Bishara Sirhan attend his trial in Los Angeles for the murder of Sen. Robert F. Kennedy. Sirhan was convicted of first degree murder and sentenced to death; his sentence was later commuted to life in prison.

On this date in 1969: Family members of Sirhan Bishara Sirhan attend his trial in Los Angeles for the murder of Sen. Robert F. Kennedy. Sirhan was convicted of first degree murder and sentenced to death; his sentence was later commuted to life in prison. | David F. Smith/AP

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