Wednesday, January 8, 2025

A 10% Yield That's Almost Perfect

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A 10% Yield That's Almost Perfect

Marc Lichtenfeld, Chief Income Strategist, The Oxford Club

Marc Lichtenfeld

Starwood Property Trust (NYSE: STWD) is a mortgage real estate investment trust, or REIT, that has been publicly traded for 15 years. Its $26 billion portfolio consists of loans to both commercial and residential borrowers.

The company has paid a $0.48 per share quarterly dividend since 2014, which comes out to a 10% yield on the stock's current price. Can shareholders expect to continue receiving $0.48 per share each quarter?

Starwood Property Trust uses a metric it calls "distributable earnings" to measure its cash flow.

In 2023, distributable earnings fell nearly 9% from $726 million to $663 million. When Starwood releases its full-year results in February, distributable earnings are expected to be $677 million.

Chart: The End of a Downward Trend? Starwood Property Trust distributable earnings.
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Because 2023's $663 million was below the prior year's figure, the stock's dividend safety rating gets a one-point penalty. If 2024's total comes in at less than $663 million, that downgrade will remain in effect.

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In 2023, Starwood paid $601 million in dividends for a 91% payout ratio. The total dividend payout is forecast to inch up to $610 million in 2024, but with distributable earnings also projected to rise, the payout ratio would actually drop to 90%.

With mortgage REITs, I'm comfortable with payout ratios of 100% or lower, as REITs must pay out 90% of their earnings. (Distributable earnings aren't the same as regular earnings, as distributable earnings factor out noncash items.) Since REITs have that higher requirement and typically aim to provide the most income possible to investors, a 100% payout ratio is reasonable.

If it goes above 100%, it's a problem. But up to 100% is fine as long as distributable earnings - or whatever cash flow metric the company uses - aren't expected to fall.

So Starwood's payout ratio is in good shape for now... but how concerned should we be moving forward?

Click the button below to find out Starwood's grade.

As a bonus, you'll also be able to see how Safety Net performed in 2024, including the number of dividend raises, the number of dividend cuts, and the average change in the dividend for each grade.

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