Friday, December 6, 2024

The economy Biden is leaving behind

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Dec 06, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO Playbook PM

By Bethany Irvine

Presented by 

Tobacco-Free Kids Action Fund
THE CATCH-UP

The US Federal Reserve is seen in Washington, DC on September 16, 2024. A Federal Reserve policy meeting this week is widely expected to see officials cut interest rates. (Photo by MANDEL NGAN / AFP) (Photo by MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images)

The Federal Reserve is likely to continue on with its rate-cutting campaign this month. | AFP via Getty Images

AOC RISING — Rep. ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ (D-N.Y.) hinted today she’ll soon make an announcement about potentially seeking to lead Democrats on the House Oversight Committee, taking on veteran Rep. GERRY CONNELLY (D-Va.). “In interviews with a half dozen Democrats Friday morning, lawmakers increasingly believed Ocasio-Cortez will enter the race with a sizable bloc of support … before even officially launching a bid,” Nicholas Wu, Daniella Diaz and Jordain Carney report.

ON THE JOBS — The evidence is increasingly clear that DONALD TRUMP will inherit a healthy economy when he returns to the White House next month, albeit one with some soft spots. The latest jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows 227,000 jobs were added last month, while also revising the September and October upward.

The figures are largely in line with what economists predicted after October’s statistics were impacted by major hurricanes and labor strikes. Though national unemployment rate remains near a 50-year low, it increased slightly from 4.1% to 4.2%, suggesting a “cooling demand for workers, with long-term joblessness at the highest in almost three years,” Bloomberg’s Augusta Saraiva reports.

Deeper into the numbers … 

  • The report revised previous months’ job gains by a total of 56,000 — this, we’ll note, after some Republicans suggested in the throes of the campaign that the BLS was putting out rosy numbers that would later be revised downward. 
  • Average hourly earnings rose 0.4%, or 13 cents, from November and up a total of 4% over the last year.
  • The Black unemployment rate rose 6.4% from 5.7% last month while Hispanic unemployment edged up slightly from from 5.1% to 5.3%
  • Employment in the healthcare, leisure and hospitality, government, and social assistance sectors rose while the retail trade cut the most jobs.

From the West Wing … President JOE BIDEN touted the report as a sign of “America’s comeback,” adding in a statement, “This has been a hard-fought recovery, but we are making progress for working families.”

What’s next for the Fed? … The gently cooling labor market suggests the central bank is likely to continue on with its rate-cutting campaign this month. Earlier this week, Fed Governor CHRISTOPHER WALLER said he was "leaning towards" a cut while Federal Reserve Chair JEROME POWELL emphasized that the agency should “be careful in managing the endgame of its roughly three-year fight against inflation,” Reuters’ Howard Schneider reports. 

The 30,000-foot view: “From 'Great Resignation' to 'Great Detachment': How the U.S. job market has slowed,” by NBC News’ Rob Wile

NOT PETERING OUT — Trump isn’t backing down yet. Amid persistent doubts among GOP lawmakers over PETE HEGSETH’s nomination for Defense secretary, the president-elect issued an endorsement of Hegseth this morning on Truth Social.

“Pete Hegseth is doing very well. His support is strong and deep, much more so than the Fake News would have you believe,” Trump wrote. “Pete is a WINNER, and there is nothing that can be done to change that!!!”

Trump’s online vote of confidence comes after Hegseth spent the week struggling to shore up support amongst Republicans on Capitol Hill after accusations of financial mismanagement, alcohol abuse and sexual assault have marred his bid for the job.

“While he’s still backing Hegseth publicly, Trump is also considering other options to lead the Pentagon, including Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS. But as long as Trump is still behind him, Hegseth has said he will continue on,” Andrew Howard reports. Trump and DeSantis will reportedly huddle next weekend at the Army-Navy football game, their second meeting this month, Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser and Bill Melugin report.

How it’s playing in the E-Ring: “‘Discomfort and anxiety’: Pentagon officials jittery as Hegseth drama plays out,” by Jack Detsch

Happy Friday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at birvine@politico.com.

 

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7 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW

Rep. Billy Long, R-Mo., asks questions to Richard Bright, former director of the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, during a House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Health hearing Thursday, May 14, 2020, on Capitol Hill in Washington.

Billy Long, Trump’s nominee for IRS commissioner, routinely promised his clients huge tax refunds since leaving office last year, | Greg Nash/Pool via AP

1. THE LONG GAME: Former Rep. BILLY LONG (R-Mo.) has a complicated history with the agency he is seeking to lead. Long, Trump’s nominee for IRS commissioner, routinely promised his clients huge tax refunds since leaving office last year, advocating for a pandemic-era tax credit that the agency has repeatedly cracked down on for fraud, NYT’s Andrew Duehren reports.

Long lobbied on behalf of the Employer Retention Tax Credit on the Hill earlier this year, and “[i]f the Senate confirms Mr. Long to lead the tax collection agency, he will be in a position to ease access to the tax credit … During his time generating claims for the employee retention credit, Mr. Long said, he repeatedly tried to persuade potential clients to disregard the advice of their accountants, who doubted whether they could qualify for the credit.”

2. ALL POLITICS IS ANTI-WOKE-AL: Trump’s pick to head up the National Institutes for Health, economist and physician JAY BHATTACHARYA, is weighing a plan to crack down on “cancel culture” on college campuses by linking a “a university’s likelihood of receiving research grants to some ranking or measure of academic freedom on campus,” WSJ’s Liz Essley Whyte reports: Bhattacharya, a critic of the Covid-19 response, wants to counter what he sees as a culture of conformity in science that ostracized him over his views on masking and school closures.”

What else could lie ahead: “Among Bhattacharya’s other plans are funding studies to replicate the work of other scientists to help root out scientific fraud. … He has proposed dialing back the amount of NIH grant money that pays for publication in journals. And he would seek to pause so-called gain-of-function research that engineers viruses with new, potentially dangerous, traits to study them.”

3. MELANIA SPEAKS: In her first interview since her husband’s second presidential victory, incoming First Lady MELANIA TRUMP joined “Fox & Friends” to discuss her new memoir. During the interview, Trump credited her son, BARRON, for helping shore up support for his father among Gen-Z voters: “He knew exactly who his father needs to contact and to talk to,” she said. “[He] brought in so many young people — he knows his generation.” Watch the full interview 

4. THE TRUMP EFFECT: “As Trump Threatens Tariffs, Europe and South America Strengthen Ties,” by NYT’s Jenny Gross, Liz Alderman and Patricia Cohen: “The European Union reached a major trade deal on Friday with five South American countries … With European leaders preparing for the possibility that Mr. Trump’s return to office will lead to a more fragmented global economy, the deal is a significant victory for proponents of free trade, linking markets with 780 million people. But it could fuel frustration within the European bloc.”

 

REGISTER NOW: As the 118th Congress ends, major decisions loom, including healthcare appropriations. Key focus: site neutrality. Can aligning hospital and clinic costs cut federal spending, reflect physician costs, and lower patient expenses? Join policymakers and providers to discuss.

 
 

5. SEOUL SEARCHING: The head of South Korea’s ruling party suggested today that embattled president YOON SUK YEOL could move again to declare martial law for the second time this week, WSJ’s Timothy Martin reports from Seoul. Tensions remain high in the country after Yoon declared martial law late Tuesday and reversed the decision in a matter of hours: “The right-wing Yoon faces an impeachment vote that could occur as early as Saturday … At a Friday leadership meeting, HAN DONG-HOON, the leader of Yoon’s People Power Party, said that Yoon’s presidential powers should be swiftly suspended, arguing inaction is putting the country in danger.”

Local angle: Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN scrapped a trip to the country after Yoon’s initial declaration this week, Reuters’ Idrees Ali and Phil Stewart scoop.

6. TIKTOK ON THE CLOCK: “Federal judges rule: TikTok can be banned,” by Christine Mui: “A federal appeals court sided with the Justice Department on Friday and upheld a law that would ban TikTok in the U.S. if the video-sharing app is not sold by Jan. 19. … TikTok and its parent company ByteDance had sued to block the law in May, arguing that it suppresses speech by banning a platform used by more than half the U.S. population.”

7. DEEP IN THE HEART: Texas House Speaker DADE PHELAN dropped his bid for a third term this morning, bowing to a more conservative challenger just “one day before a scheduled meeting where Republicans are set to pick their nominee for the gavel,” The Texas Tribune’s Jasper Scherer, James Barragán and Renzo Downey report.

Why it matters: Despite the Lone Star State’s reputation as a Republican bastion, a series of pragmatic legislative leaders have kept the state from veering fully hard right. “With Phelan out of the picture, Lt. Gov. DAN PATRICK and the rest of the GOP’s most conservative faction could have a willing ally in driving a hardline agenda through the Legislature,” they write.

 

Billions in spending. Critical foreign aid. Immigration reform. The final weeks of 2024 could bring major policy changes. Inside Congress provides daily insights into how Congressional leaders are navigating these high-stakes issues. Subscribe today.

 
 
PLAYBOOKERS

Jake Tapper and Alex Thompson are teaming up on a Joe Biden book.

Suzan DelBene will do another tour as DCCC chair.

Eric Adams didn’t rule out switching sides.

Andy Biggs rocked some musical crocs.

Tim Walz says he’s “a little surprised” that Donald Trump won.

MEDIA MOVE — Paul Krugman is ending his NYT column after nearly 25 years, Opinion Editor Kathleen Kingsbury announced: “He plans to write a final column soon — though he will forever be a friend of Opinion.”

OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at the inaugural CPAC Argentina in Buenos Aires on Wednesday, with a keynote from Argentine President Javier Milei: RNC Co-Chair Lara Trump, Ben Shapiro, Kari Lake, Steve Bannon, Barry Bennett, Matt and Mercedes Schlapp, Eduardo Bolsonaro, Eduardo Verástegui, Santiago Abascal, Erin Elmore and Ryan Coyne.

— SPOTTED at Kieloch Consulting’s holiday labor lunch yesterday afternoon at the Palm: Reps. Steve Cohen (D-Tenn.), Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D-Calif.) and Mark Pocan (D-Wis.), Bruce Kieloch, Nancy Bagley, Diane Blagman, Ryan Grim, Julio Cerón, Joe Dennison, Kimball Stroud, Ilyse Hogue, John Neffinger, Tim Dupin, Erica Payne, Gene Haigh, Kori Blalock Keller, Laurie Knight, John Lapp, Laura MacDonald, Jonathan Bronstein, Paul Swartz, Dave Mallino, Kevin McDonald, Craig Purser, Christina Sevilla and Steve Rochlin, Liz Sizer, Jamie Whitehead, Marie Smeallie, Shanti Stanton, Dane Strother, Adam Green, Nettie Stuckey, Gankhuyag Natsag and Michael Isikoff.

The North Carolina Society hosted its holiday party and salute to retiring delegation members Wednesday at the Altria office. SPOTTED: Reps. Valerie Foushee (D-N.C.), Alma Adams (D-N.C.), Wiley Nickel (D-N.C.), Deborah Ross (D-N.C.), Jeff Jackson (D-N.C.), Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.), Greg Murphy (R-N.C.), Chuck Edwards (R-N.C.), Don Davis (D-N.C.) and Virginia Foxx (R-N.C.), Rep.-elect Pat Harrigan (R-N.C.), G.K. Butterfield, Greg Steele, Hannah Spengler, Elizabeth Adkins, Sean McCabe, Matt Lee, Gordon Holzberg, Brad Edwards, Erin Taylor, Avery Weisel, Phil Park, Baker Elmore, Larry Kast, Meg Gilley, Dawn Thompson, Torrey Shearer, Matt Grill, Courtney Lee-Ashley, Jolyn Cikanek, Navneet Buttar, Debra Bryant, Huston Wallace, Ryan Murphy, James Hunter, Evanne Timberlake, Megan Gallagher, Katonya Pettaway, John Bonus, Garrett Daniel and Craig Saperstein.

The U.S. Global Leadership Coalition hosted its 2024 tribute celebration last night at the Ritz-Carlton, honoring U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Linda Thomas-Greenfield, Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and John Boozman (R-Ark.), and Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.). SPOTTED: Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.), Reps. Dina Titus (D-Nev.) and Deborah Ross (D-N.C.), Norm Coleman, Ed Royce, press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, Stephen Benjamin, Alice Albright, Scott Nathan, Dina Esposito, Carol Spahn, Uzra Zeya, Kip Tom, C.D. Glin, Jenelle Krishnamoorthy, Edgar Sandoval, Candi Wolff, Sean Callahan, Heather Nauert, Sean Cairncross, Kimberly Reed, Manisha Singh, Edward Miyagishima, Marie Harf, Carla Hills, Dan Glickman and Liz Schrayer.

— SPOTTED at the annual gala for the Daily Caller News Foundation at the Mayflower: Vivek Ramaswamy, Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), Sen.-elect Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio), Reps. Virginia Foxx (R-N.C.), Harriet Hageman (R-Wyo.), Kat Cammack (R-Fla.), Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.), Claudia Tenney (R-N.Y.) and Nancy Mace (R-S.C.), David Bernhardt, Carla Sands, David Malpass, Diana Davis Spencer, David Bossie, Katelynn Richardson, John Gizzi, Rodger Roundy, Nick Pope, Tiffany Justice, Megan Brock and Morgan Murphy.

— SPOTTED at ClearPath’s holiday party last night: Reps. Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.), Μariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa), Steve Womack (R-Ark.), Randy Feenstra (R-Iowa), Pete Stauber (R-Minn.), Bob Latta (R-Ohio), Chuck Fleischmann (R-Tenn.), Joe Wilson (R-S.C.), John Joyce (R-Pa.), Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) and Scott Peters (D-Calif.).

Coupang and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce hosted a salon dinner last night to discuss the U.S. private sector and economic cooperation in the Indo-Pacific. SPOTTED: Reps. Carol Miller (R-W.Va.), John Moolenaar (R-Mich.), Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) and Marilyn Strickland (D-Wash.), Harold Rogers, Neil Bradley, Charles Freeman, Clete Willems, C.J. Mahoney, Robert Atkinson, Mark Lippert, Kathleen Stephens, Gavin Bade and Ana Swanson.

TRANSITION — Damian Arias is now president of prospecting at Frontline Strategies. He previously was digital fundraising director at the NRSC and is a NRCC and America Rising alum.

NON-TRANSITION — “The John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts had announced that its longtime board chairman, David M. Rubenstein, would step down in January and had appointed a search committee to find a successor. But last month, shortly after the presidential election, the Kennedy Center announced that Mr. Rubenstein, a private equity titan who has led its board of 14 years, would stay on in the position until September 2026,” NYT’s Robin Pogrebin and Javier C. Hernández report. “The decision ensures continuity at a moment when the Kennedy Center, like much of Washington, is preparing for a second Trump administration.”

BONUS BIRTHDAY: White House’s Jacob Bernard

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