ASSAD IN TROUBLE: Reports are emerging that Syrian President BASHAR AL-ASSAD and his family have fled Syria in the face of a lightning offensive by rebel forces toward Damascus. NatSec Daily hasn’t been able to independently confirm those reports, but it’s clear that this new offensive poses one of the biggest threats to Assad’s grip on power since the Syrian civil war began in 2011. “The Assad regime is falling,” said MOUAZ MOUSTAFA, executive director of the Syria Emergency Task Force advocacy group. “We’re not talking about years or months, we’re talking about weeks or days.” Rebels’ capture of the strategic city of Hama this week dealt a sharp blow to Assad and his Russian and Iranian allies. The country’s third-largest city, Homs, could be next. That would position the rebel forces to stage an assault on Damascus. Still, there’s a potentially costly fight ahead of the rebel groups if Syria’s national forces don’t collapse. Iran announced it is sending missiles, drones and military advisers to Syria to shore up Assad’s forces. Hezbollah is also reportedly sending a limited number of forces to Syria, despite the militant group still reeling from a massive Israeli military offensive in Lebanon. NUCLEAR INROADS WITH TRUMP: The latest global leader eager to connect with Trump? RAFAEL GROSSI, director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Our own NAHAL TOOSI caught up with Grossi at the IISS Manama Dialogue in Bahrain earlier today. Grossi said the incoming Trump team should touch base with him and his organization quickly to get a technical laydown of nuclear proliferation issues. Of particular urgency is Iran. The IAEA chief announced today that Tehran is dramatically increasing its capacity to produce 60 percent enriched uranium — a level that makes it easier to reach the 90 percent needed for weapons-grade material. When it comes to Iran, "the realities on the ground are fundamentally different" than the last time Trump was in office and abandoned the Iran nuclear deal, Grossi said. Iran is far more advanced in its nuclear program and the IAEA has much less visibility over its efforts. But the Trump team will also have to face the fact that what was once a unified group of countries — from Europe, as well as Russia and China — that worked with the U.S. to negotiate a nuclear deal with Iran no longer exists. Instead, there is now a different political geometry, with Russia and China essentially on Iran's side and Europe forging its own path. So there are likely to be multiple dialogues with Tehran. "What we need to make sure is that there are no duplications, no contradictions in what is agreed with one as opposed to others," Grossi said. Grossi stressed that he's more focused on the technical aspects of monitoring Iran's program than giving opinions about the inescapable politics involved in future nuclear talks. But he hopes Trump and his team will consult with the IAEA regularly given how crucial the organization is to keeping track of Iran's program. When asked if he ever gets tired of the politics of nuclear talks, Grossi said that's not an option. "Frankly speaking, I cannot pretend to be living in a vacuum where politics is an inconvenience," he said. "What one needs to have is a lot of resilience when confronted with critics and certain creativity to come forward with new initiatives with ideas." ROMANIA’S ELECTION RE-RUN: Romania’s top constitutional court ordered that the country’s entire presidential election be redone as allegations have swirled that ultranationalist pro-Kremlin candidate CĂLIN GEORGESCU was boosted by a Russian-backed disinformation and election interference campaign on TikTok. As our own TIM ROSS, CARMEN PAUN and ANDREI POPOVICIU report, the move came just days before the scheduled second round of the presidential election, in which Georgescu was set to face off against the pro-Western candidate ELENA LASCONI. Both Georgescu and Lasconi voiced their disagreement with the decision, saying it infringed on Romanian democracy. DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of the national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, we’re featuring our own JESSICA MEYERS, POLITICO’s deputy standards and ethics editor, who is joining our team next week as the new defense editor. Jessica has guest-edited NatSec Daily in the past and we’re excited to welcome her permanently to the global security squad. Jessica told us she loves Spanish and Portuguese red wines because, as she puts it, “they’re relatively affordable and delicious.” She enjoys a glass of those wines and other drinks at home with her family or at a kid-friendly brewery in the D.C. area like Silver Branch (so her four-year-old can tag along). She also noted that she won’t pass up a strong IPA, and she has a specific request for our readers. “If anyone finds Pliny the Elder in Washington, please let me know. Immediately,” she said. You heard her, folks. Email your leads on Pliny the Elder (and your well-wishes!) to jmeyers@politico.com. Cheers! And welcome, Jessica! IT’S FRIDAY! WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s global security team: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @jessicameyers, @RosiePerper, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, and @johnnysaks130
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