| | | | |  | | By Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza and Rachael Bade | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | THE CARTER CENTURY — President JIMMY CARTER turns 100 today. He’ll celebrate in his Plains, Georgia, home where he has spent the past 19 months in hospice care, per AP’s Bill Barrow and Charlotte Kramon, amid public celebrations that include the airing of a benefit concert tonight and the construction of 30 new homes in Minnesota this week by Habitat for Humanity. Fascinating visualization, via WaPo: “His lifetime has overlapped with that of 17 other presidents so far: WILLIAM HOWARD TAFT (the nation’s 27th president) was still alive when Carter was born and CALVIN COOLIDGE was the president.” DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT — “Thousands of East, Gulf Coast dockworkers hit the picket line as contract deadline passes,” by Ry Rivard and Nick Niedzwiadek: “Even a short strike is likely to send shock waves through the economy. A prolonged one is politically perilous for Democrats up and down the ballot, including Vice President KAMALA HARRIS, who may be forced to choose between their labor allies and a fully functioning economy.“
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It’s the No. 2s in the spotlight for what could be the last big opportunity for either ticket to make an impression on a wide swath of Americans. | Paul Sancya; Al Goldis/AP Photo | THE MEN WHO WOULD BE VEEP — The role of running mate is, above all else, do no harm. That imperative will be put to the test tonight in NYC, where Sen. JD VANCE (R-Ohio) and Minnesota Gov. TIM WALZ will face off at 9 p.m. in CBS’ West 57th Street studios. It’s not only that both men are relatively new to the highest echelon of American politics. It’s not just that they’ll be facing two skilled moderators in NORAH O’DONNELL and MARGARET BRENNAN. It’s that, unusually, it’s the No. 2s in the spotlight for the final debate of 2024 (the final scheduled debate, anyway) — what could be the last big opportunity for either ticket to make an impression on a wide swath of Americans. THE EXPECTATIONS GAME: For weeks already, Harris aides and surrogates have painted Walz as an aw-shucks everyman going up against Vance’s Ivy League pedigree — never mind the six House races and two gubernatorial races he won. Meanwhile, the DONALD TRUMP camp is painting him as a ruthlessly effective political combatant. “Tim Walz is very good in debates — really good,” senior Trump adviser JASON MILLER said on a preview call yesterday. “He’ll be very well prepared for tomorrow night. He’s not going to be the wildly gesticulating effeminate caricature we see at rallies.” That’s the opinion of the campaign brain trust, at least: Trump, you’ll be shocked to learn, raised expectations for Vance to the roof in an interview yesterday for KELLYANNE CONWAY’s Fox Nation show: “He’s going up against a moron. A total moron, how she picked him is unbelievable.” THE PREP: Vance is telegraphing he doesn’t need to do much to get ready (again with the expectation-setting). But as our colleague Mia McCarthy reports, he had plenty of opportunity, preparing at home in Cincinnati and on Zoom calls with Miller and sometimes his wife, USHA. He brought in Walz’s old delegation mate, House Majority Whip TOM EMMER (R-Minn.), to play his opponent in mock sessions. Walz has been holed up, meanwhile, in northern Michigan since Thursday after weeks of sneaking in debate prep on the campaign trail. His debate guru is Transportation Secretary PETE BUTTIGIEG — who is well-versed in parrying GOP talking points from dozens of Fox News hits and showed up at “Camp North Star” dressed as Vance in a “cheap red tie instead of camp casual attire,” according to a person familiar with the prep sessions. THE ATTACKS: Spin aside, each man is going in with the same goal: Paint the other guy as extreme and out of step with the American people. Expect Vance to hit Walz, per a spokesperson, “on his far left agenda, including his disastrous record on border security, being soft on crime, and his overall failures as Governor of Minnesota.” Walz’s handling of the Minneapolis riots following the killing of GEORGE FLOYD will be a particular focus for Vance, Mia reports, as well as the questions surrounding Walz’s military service record. The upshot, as the Vance rep put it, is to “demonstrate that Kamala Harris’s decision to pick Walz as her running mate is an indictment of her judgment.” On the other side, Walz is planning to keep the focus on the top of the ticket. Rather than litigate “childless cat ladies” and Vance’s own personal controversies, the goal is to keep the focus on Trump — connecting through his running mate to his dark and extreme vision for the country. Still, there are doubts even among Democrats that Walz’s folksy vibe will translate into a winning debate performance. As Meredith Lee Hill writes in her own preview, Walz “can be overly defensive when confronted about his mistakes, according to fellow Minnesota Democrats,” and “developed a reputation for speaking so quickly that an ally characterized him as ‘a bit manic.’”
| | | | A message from USAFacts: Americans deserve clear, trustworthy facts to make up their minds on today’s most pressing issues. In this new series, USAFacts Founder Steve Ballmer walks through the data on immigration, the economy, healthcare, and much more, to help you inform your perspective. Get the numbers, not rhetoric, topic by topic. | | | THE FLASHPOINTS: We’ll be on the lookout for these hot-button topics … — Vance’s past remarks on Trump: Whether it’s the moderators or Walz, expect Vance to have to account at some point for his many, many, many past criticisms of Trump — both public and private. When you liken your future running mate to ADOLF HITLER, it’s a safe bet it will come up at least once in the debate. — Misinformation on Springfield, Ohio: Vance was at the tip of the spear spreading the conspiracy theory that Haitian immigrants were eating their neighbors’ pets, based on (still) unconfirmed reports, and it’s been a fixture of the news cycle ever since. It came up in the Harris-Trump debate; expect to come up here. — Harris’ flip-flops: The Kamala Harris of 2019 and the Kamala Harris of 2024 have sometimes wildly different policy prescriptions for some of the biggest issues in the country. Her answer tends to be “my values haven’t changed.” But expect the moderators to try to at least pick Walz’s brain on some of these shifts he now has to endorse. THE AFTERMATH: Notably, we’re told Vance will take after his boss and head to the spin room himself, where he’ll be joined by the likes of DONALD TRUMP JR., Sens. TOM COTTON (R-Ark.) and KATIE BRITT (R-Ala.), and Reps. ELISE STEFANIK (R-N.Y.) and BYRON DONALDS (R-Fla.). Expect a similar slate, still TBA, of Harris surrogates. The most important question after the debate won’t be who won, necessarily, but whether this will be the last big night of the campaign. Will Vance do well enough that Trump feels comfortable letting his No. 2 have the last word? Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook, and a happy fiscal 2025 to you. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza. HAPPENING TODAY — “Mexico’s First Female President Takes Office,” by NYT’s Emiliano Rodríguez Mega: “[CLAUDIA] SHEINBAUM’s inauguration is a milestone and a symbol for many of women’s empowerment. But she also takes office in a country with the largest budget deficit in decades, a deepening security crisis and an ever more powerful governing party that has moved to profoundly redesign the justice system and other aspects of public life.” WESTMINSTER US vs. WESTMINSTER UK — Our British POLITICO colleague Emilio Casalicchio headed to the 8,000-population town of Westminster, Massachusetts, to see how it compares with Westminster in London, the political epicenter of the U.K. Both have a shooting range, artisanal coffee and frenzied political feuding. Westminster is a bellwether town in a safe Dem state where many of the nation’s divides are very much on display. “I don’t think people are ripping each other’s faces off,” said a store owner, “but it’s definitely politically charged out there.”
| | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | | On the Hill The Senate and the House are out. Speaker MIKE JOHNSON will speak at the New York Stock Exchange at 4:40 p.m. to outline Republicans’ vision for the first 100 days of a GOP administration. What we’re watching … Could Helene’s devastation prompt Congress to reconvene to pass disaster funding? Biden suggested that might be the case yesterday, and lawmakers of both parties from affected states spoke up to endorse the idea, as Axios reported. But in practical terms, there’s probably no need to rush: FEMA’s Disaster Relief Fund is solvent for now, and will likely remain so through the end of the year — but, make no mistake, it will be an issue in the lame duck session. More from Caitlin Emma at Inside Congress At the White House Biden will get a Hurricane Helene briefing at 11 a.m. He’ll have a call with rabbis for the High Holidays at 1:15 p.m. Harris will have staff meetings and briefings. On the trail Vance and Walz will have their debate at 9 p.m. Trump will speak in Waunakee, Wisconsin, at 2:30 p.m. Eastern and in Milwaukee at 6 p.m. Eastern.
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| Introducing Election 2024: Welcome to October, and welcome to our new section highlighting all the latest coverage of the presidential race and the battle for Congress, while also walking you through all the key headlines and polls and that will help you make sense of everything through Election Day.
|  Donald Trump was first to visit the Hurricane Helene damage in person, and he launched a GoFundMe that has raised more than $1 million. | Evan Vucci/AP Photo | STURM UND DRANG — Political fallout from Hurricane Helene continued to occupy the eye of the presidential race yesterday, as Trump sought to build a narrative of failure by President JOE BIDEN and Harris, Natalie Allison and Megan Messerly report. They in turn worked to parry his criticisms and focused on the federal response. Touring devastation in Georgia, Trump declared falsely that local leaders hadn’t been able to connect with Biden. (In fact, Georgia Gov. BRIAN KEMP said he’d talked with Biden, and Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS said his state got what it needed.) Trump was first to visit the damage in person, and he launched a GoFundMe that has raised more than $1 million. He criticized Democrats for not responding quickly. Biden announced later that he’ll go to North Carolina tomorrow and Georgia and Florida when possible. Harris got a briefing at FEMA and said she’d visit as soon as it wouldn’t interrupt disaster relief operations. Trump slammed Harris as absent and too busy fundraising for her campaign. Harris’ campaign, in turn, chided him for a lack of empathy and politicizing the disaster, per WaPo. On the ground, the scale of the tragedy keeps building. There are 133 dead, per the AP’s latest tally, and as many as 600 more unaccounted for, Biden said, per the NYT. Stranded North Carolinians and Tennesseans in particular lacked clean water, power or connection to the outside world in some areas. More than 1,000 people are in shelters. But assistance poured into the Asheville region from the National Guard, other government agencies and aid groups. RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The NAACP is launching a $3.75 million radio/streaming audio ad buy aiming to bolster Black voter turnout across the seven swing states and toss-up congressional districts in California and New York. North Carolina is the first market, starting today. The ad BATTLE FOR THE BALLOT — Democrats sued to try to block Georgia’s last-minute rule change requiring all ballots to be hand-counted, NYT’s Nick Corasaniti reports. … In New Hampshire, the ACLU and other groups sued over a new law requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote, the New Hampshire Union Leader’s Paul Feely reports. STUCK IN THE MIDDLE — “Haley’s endorsement of Trump doesn’t mean her supporters will follow her,” by Meridith McGraw, Lisa Kashinsky and Natalie Allison SAY NO, TAKE THE DOUGH — AP’s Brian Slodysko finds that Vance has sought $200 million from the bipartisan infrastructure law for projects in Ohio, despite excoriating the bill at the time. (He wasn’t yet in Congress to vote for it.) His team says he’s simply doing his job for his constituents, despite having problems with the bill. RACE FOR THE SENATE FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The National Rifle Association’s Political Victory Fund is jumping into the Ohio race with a seven-figure ad buy on TV and streaming. Boosting Republican BERNIE MORENO for protecting gun rights, the ads slam Democratic Sen. SHERROD BROWN as soft on crime and urge Ohioans to “vote like your life depends on it — because it might.” The TV spot THE TIPPING POINT — “Jon Tester and Tim Sheehy debate in Montana with the Senate on the line,” by NBC’s Bridget Bowman and Alex Tabet in Missoula: “[TIM] SHEEHY, a former Navy SEAL, painted [Sen. JON] TESTER as liberal cog in the national Democratic Party machine, unable to address concerns about high costs and border security … Tester tried to make it personal — touting his bipartisan bona fides, highlighting his own connections to his red-leaning state and suggesting his opponent cannot be trusted.” AN UNLIKELY DREAM — Independent DAN OSBORN has made the Nebraska race unexpectedly close, and though he’s still the underdog, confidence doesn’t seem to be a problem: “I would say I’m gonna win pretty substantially,” he blusters to ABC’s Brittany Shepherd, Oren Oppenheim and Will McDuffie. AN UNLIKELIER DREAM — Could there be a competitive race in North Dakota? Don’t bet on it, but an internal polling memo for Democrat KATRINA CHRISTIANSEN says she’s cut her deficit from 25 points to 9, and GOP Sen. KEVIN CRAMER is below 50 percent. (Cramer’s internal polling has him leading by 29 points.) RACE FOR THE HOUSE RATINGS ROUNDUP — Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted Rep. DON BACON’s (R-Neb.) district from toss-up to leaning Democratic, as polls indicate that the moderate’s streak of outrunning Omaha’s political gravity may be in jeopardy. THE ABORTION ELECTION — As Democrats try to unseat Iowa GOP Reps. MARIANNETTE MILLER-MEEKS and ZACH NUNN, they’re focusing heavily on abortion, NYT’s Robert Jimison reports. The state’s near-total ban provides new political fuel. RACE FOR THE STATES DOWN BALLOT — In Davidson, North Carolina, WaPo’s Colby Itkowitz has the unusual story of KATE BARR, a Democrat running in a safe Republican state legislative seat while openly saying she’ll lose — as a protest against gerrymandering and a way to boost Dem turnout. BAD BLOOD — Pennsylvania Gov. JOSH SHAPIRO won’t endorse ERIN McCLELLAND, his fellow Democrat running for state treasurer and trying to unseat a GOP incumbent, the Philly Inquirer’s Gillian McGoldrick reports. McClelland had previously criticized Shapiro. POLL POSITION Pennsylvania: Harris +2, BOB CASEY +4, per AARP, Holly Otterbein scoops this morning. North Carolina: Trump +2, JOSH STEIN +17, per East Carolina University.
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|  In private, U.S. officials have told Israel that they would back an escalation against Hezbollah. | Hussein Malla/AP Photo | MIDDLE EAST LATEST — Overnight, Israel said it had begun its military ground incursion into Lebanon, per CBS. It emphasized that the operation was “limited, localized” and “targeted,” but it nonetheless amounted to just the latest escalation in a region torn by war. At the same time, the U.S. said yesterday it was sending thousands more troops to the Middle East, per Bloomberg, to help protect Americans and defend Israel as needed. The U.S. approach to Israel’s wars against Hamas and Hezbollah has been two-sided: On the one hand, U.S. officials have repeatedly urged the combatants to sign cease-fires and de-escalate — often unsuccessfully, to diplomats’ frustration, ABC’s Shannon Kingston reports. But the Biden administration also “appeared to subdue its messaging on a push for a temporary truce between Israel and Hezbollah” yesterday. In fact, in private U.S. officials told Israel that they would back an escalation against Hezbollah, Erin Banco and Nahal Toosi report, despite some mixed opinions within the administration. And Israel likely used U.S.-made bombs in the strike that killed HASSAN NASRALLAH, CNN’s Allegra Goodwin, Eve Brennan and Gianluca Mezzofiore report, highlighting America’s imprint on the region. BEYOND THE BELTWAY BIG RULING — A Georgia judge threw out the state’s near-total abortion ban, making the procedure legal there up to roughly 22 weeks for the first time in two years, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Maya Prabhu reports. But it may not last long, as the state appeals. GOODBYE TO ALL THAT — Longtime Buffalo Mayor BYRON BROWN announced he’s leaving office mid-term to lead an off-track betting organization, three years after being reelected with a write-in campaign when he lost his primary, The Buffalo News’ Deidre Williams reports. 2025 WATCH — “Ras Baraka, Reasonable Radical,” by The New Yorker’s Kelefa Sanneh
| | | | A message from USAFacts:   USAFacts: Data straight from the source. | | | POLICY CORNER THE STAKES FOR NOVEMBER — “Millions Could Lose Insurance Subsidies, Depending on the Election,” by NYT’s Margot Sanger-Katz: “The issue is getting less attention than a possible repeal of the Affordable Care Act, but it’s much more likely to happen. … [T]he Trump campaign and key Republicans in Congress have said they do not support the extension.” CLICKER — “Forecasting America’s Economic Future Under Harris vs. Trump,” Bloomberg IRA IMPACT — Fifty-four more drugs will see lower prices for some Medicaid recipients thanks to a rebate program established by the Inflation Reduction Act, HHS announced yesterday. More from The Hill THE WHITE HOUSE
|  New policy changes allow officials to lift the asylum ban between ports of entry only when border crossings fall below a certain threshold for nearly a month, instead of a week. | Jae C. Hong, Pool, File/AP Photo | IMMIGRATION FILES — The Biden administration yesterday announced policy moves that will make it much harder to lift the huge crackdown on asylum-seekers at the southern border, turning a temporary measure into something close to indefinite, CBS’ Camilo Montoya-Galvez reports. The changes from DHS and DOJ now allow officials to lift the asylum ban between ports of entry only when border crossings fall below a certain threshold for nearly a month, instead of a week. All children will also now be included in that calculation. The moves will help lock in the new U.S. policy that essentially ends asylum for immigrants who cross the border illegally. It’s a huge shift from how the country has treated people seeking asylum in recent decades — the U.N. and immigrant advocacy groups warned yesterday that the U.S. may be violating international law. But Biden’s move has also been broadly credited with helping to finally reduce the huge surge of illegal immigration during his tenure. ON THE WAY OUT — As his presidency nears its end, Biden has been heartened and liberated by a wave of Democratic gratitude, NYT’s Zolan Kanno-Youngs report. There’s a less rosy angle from NBC’s Carol Lee, Natasha Korecki, Courtney Kube and Monica Alba, who report that “he’s privately complained to allies that his name and his accomplishments have virtually disappeared from the national conversation.” CONGRESS ONE YEAR LATER — Thursday marks the anniversary of KEVIN McCARTHY being ousted as speaker. NOTUS’ Haley Byrd Wilt talks with House Republicans about that momentous uprising: “[L]awmakers said they are still emotionally recovering. … [T]hey also agreed, regardless of where they stood during the fight, that the rebellion didn’t meaningfully change much of anything about how the House operates as an institution, like McCarthy’s detractors … had hoped.”
| | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Ken Klippenstein has been permanently banned from X. Caroline Giuliani writes that Donald Trump took away her father, Rudy. Trey Yingst’s new book chronicles Oct. 7 and the Israel-Hamas war. Bob Sunshine is retiring after 48 years at the CBO. SPORTS BLINK — Humana and Trust for the National Mall hosted a three-day “National Mall of Pickleball” event this weekend, including a media tournament. Mark Selig and Jonathan Edwards defended WaPo’s title, triumphing over John Auville and Mikey Stotz of the Sports Junkies in the finals. Also participating: The Hill’s Sarakshi Rai and Taylor Giorno, AP’s Robert Yoon and Darlene Superville, WRC-TV’s Jessily Crispyn and David Aparicio, Punchbowl’s Max Cohen and Mica Soellner, Washingtonian’s Keller Gordon and Caroline Colavita, Axios’ Stefania Tomich and Rishi Dhir, and NBC’s Frank Thorp and Garrett Haake. OUT AND ABOUT — At a dinner at British Ambassador Karen Pierce’s residence yesterday evening to celebrate women’s leadership, Melanne Verveer and the Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security surprised Pierce with a Trailblazer Award. Julia Gillard, Dalia Grybauskaitė and Kersti Kaljulaid spoke, and Palestinian and Israeli peace-building groups gave Pierce a framed copy of their “Mother’s Call.” SPOTTED: Estonian Ambassador Kristjan Prikk, Lithuanian Ambassador Audra Plepytė, EU Ambassador Jovita Neliupšienė, Samia Farouki and Anisya Fritz. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Hunter Lovell is now press secretary for the House Intelligence Committee and Chair Mike Turner (R-Ohio). He most recently was comms director for the Joint Economic Committee and Vice Chair David Schweikert (R-Ariz.). — Katherine Thordahl is now comms director for Rep. Russell Fry (R-S.C.). She previously was deputy comms director for Rep. Julia Letlow (R-La.). TRANSITIONS — Former special presidential envoy for climate John Kerry is rejoining the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace as a nonresident scholar in the sustainability, climate, and geopolitics Program. … Jonathan Czin is joining the Brookings Institution as the Michael H. Armacost chair in foreign policy studies and fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center. He previously was a top China expert at the CIA as a member of its senior analytic service, and was director for China at the NSC. … Matt Hill is now deputy chief of staff for comms for Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker. He previously was senior director of comms for the Democratic National Convention. … … Matt Ramirez has joined TikTok to shape integrity and authenticity policy for North America. He previously was on Meta’s content policy team and is a Nancy Pelosi alum. … Chris Groneng is now comms manager at Purple Strategies. He previously was speechwriter to the deputy Commerce secretary, and is a DNC and Everytown for Gun Safety alum. … Monica Massaro has been appointed executive director of the Nonprofit Kidney Care Alliance. She will remain director of government relations and public policy at Hooper, Lundy & Bookman. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Former President Jimmy Carter (1-0-0) … Reps. Grace Meng (D-N.Y.) and Jimmy Panetta (D-Calif.) … Eve Peyser … White House’s Sharon Yang … WSJ’s Ben Pershing … WaPo’s Jose Del Real … Tim Reitz … Tommy Andrews of Squire Patton Boggs … Tim Hannegan of HLP&R Advocacy … CNN’s Brian Todd and Evan Semones … Alex Gleason of the National Association of Mutual Insurance Companies … AEI’s Joe Antos … POLITICO’s Andy Goodwin, Marie French and Zaki Ahmed … Rob Seidman of FGS Global … Heather Reams of Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions … Laura Fullerton of House Foreign Affairs … Daniel Clifton … Fenway’s Ben Krauss … Theo Yedinsky … CRC Advisors’ Mike Thompson ... ServiceNow’s Nichole Francis Reynolds … Alisa La of McDonald’s … Moh Sharma of House Judiciary … Michael Koplow … Kenny Cunningham of Cunningham Communications … Jennifer Storipan of Lot Sixteen … Brook Ramlet … Defense Department’s Yousra “Yousi” Fazili Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
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