| | | | |  | | By Eric Bazail-Eimil and Robbie Gramer | |  Iranian women carrying Lebanese and Palestinian flags walk past a large portrait of Hezbollah's Hassan Nasrallah displayed on a building in downtown Tehran, Iran, on Sept. 30, 2024. Israel killed Nasrallah in a strike last week. | Hossein Beris/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images | With help from Nahal Toosi and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric Iran launched a widely expected ballistic missile attack against Israel. But it’s unclear why Tehran calculated that now was the right time to attack and exact vengeance for several high-profile killings of its proxy commanders in recent months. For one, as former Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs DAVID SCHENKER told NatSec Daily, there was little strategic upside for Iran to attack and risk entangling the U.S. — Israel’s largest benefactor and closest ally — further in the region. But Schenker argued that Israel’s killings of Hamas leader ISMAIL HANIYEH and Hezbollah leader HASSAN NASRALLAH have humiliated Iran and that leaders in Tehran are responding “emotionally” not “strategically.” “Perhaps this [attack] can stem the growing perception of Iranian weakness, of decline, that they reached the high point with the degradation of both Hamas and the crown jewel of the Resistance Front, Hezbollah, and that they have to do something to reestablish themselves as a serious regional power,” said Schenker. TRITA PARSI, executive vice president at the D.C.-based think tank Quincy Institute, suggests that Iran feels cornered right now in the face of continued Israeli saber-rattling. Just yesterday, Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU insinuated in a video posted on X that regime change is imminent in Tehran and that soon, peace between the countries would be achieved. Tehran, Parsi argued, might have felt damned if it did attack, and damned if it didn't. “Whether Iran has a clear red line in Lebanon at this point is unclear, but Iran has a red line about Iran, and if they're concluding that Netanyahu is telegraphing toppling the regime as his next moves, that means that Iran is going to be faced with an attack regardless of what it does,” said Parsi. “And under those circumstances, it may be better off responding now than responding later.” Regardless of the motives, what is undeniable is that allies of Israel in Washington are advocating for a muscular response to the attacks and that the strike will serve to raise, not lower, the temperature in the Middle East as fears of wider regional war mount. Israel is also expected to continue its military operations in southern Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. On X shortly after reports emerged of the missile salvos, Sen. MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.), the top Republican on the Senate Intelligence Committee, wrote: “A large scale Israeli retaliatory response inside Iran is certain to follow.” And Israel Defense Forces spokesperson Rear Adm. DANIEL HAGARI warned that this “attack will have consequences.” “We have plans. We will act at the time and place of our choosing," Hagari said in a public video statement. CHUCK FREILICH, a former Israeli deputy national security adviser, told NatSec Daily that “for Israel, this may be an opportunity to hit Iran in ways that it was never able to until now, potentially even against the nuclear program.” He added that “there are significant risks of escalation and reaching a wider war.” But Iran’s not done, as it warns Israel that any retaliation will be met with “crushing” attacks. Iran’s mission to the United Nations in New York wrote on X that “should the Zionist regime dare to respond or commit further acts of malevolence, a subsequent and crushing response will ensue. Regional states and the Zionists’ supporters are advised to part ways with the regime.”
| | BLINKEN’S BAD TIMING: October seems to be a bad month for administration officials to write in the pages of Foreign Affairs. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN may have found that out the hard way today, as his article titled “America’s strategy of renewal” went online shortly after Israeli troops crossed the Lebanese border and hours before the administration informed reporters that Iran was imminently preparing a ballistic missile attack against Israel. “The Biden administration, for its part, has been working tirelessly with partners in the Middle East and beyond to end the conflict and suffering in Gaza, find a diplomatic solution that enables Israelis and Lebanese to live in safety on both sides of the border, manage the risk of a wider regional war, and work toward greater integration and normalization in the region, including between Israel and Saudi Arabia,” Blinken wrote. But of course, as our own ERIN BANCO and NAHAL TOOSI reported last night, U.S. officials were privately voicing support for Israel’s military push into southern Lebanon. It could be worse for Blinken, though. The piece comes just shy of a year after national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN touted a “quieter” Middle East in a piece for the foreign policy journal. That article, of course, aged poorly when Hamas militants launched the Oct. 7 attacks against Israel a few days later. WORLD LEADER ENTRY LOUNGE: It’s officially the first day of work for three of the most important world leaders for the next U.S. administration’s foreign policy agenda. Former Dutch Prime Minister MARK RUTTE took the reins of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization today. The Dutch leader, who has been dubbed a “Trump whisperer” in some corners of Europe, may face the challenge of negotiating with a potential DONALD TRUMP administration as he continues to marshal allies to support Ukraine and other transatlantic security priorities. Meanwhile, Mexico’s first woman president, CLAUDIA SHEINBAUM PARDO, was sworn into office this morning. Sheinbaum, a scientist turned politician, is a protégé of outgoing President ANDRÉS MANUEL LOPEZ OBRADOR and is expected to continue the Mexican government’s populist trade policies, all while negotiating with the U.S. on the future of critical migration and drug interdiction partnerships. And of course, Japan’s new train-loving prime minister, SHIGERU ISHIBA, officially assumed office today. Ishiba, whose Liberal Democratic Party is not expected to lose seats in the country’s upcoming legislative elections, has called for an Asian common security alliance à la NATO. Those suggestions, however, have faced early resistance from the Biden administration. IT’S TUESDAY. Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Lockheed Martin is Leading in Next-Gen Radar Technology
The U.S. Army’s new Sentinel A4 radar—a revolutionary leap from the legacy Sentinel A3—will counter cruise missiles, unmanned aerial systems, rotary wing and fixed wing threats, offering flexible mission performance and growth potential. Learn more. | | | | | NATSEC AT THE VEEP DEBATE? Republican JD VANCE and Democrat TIM WALZ are set to face off tonight in the election cycle’s only scheduled vice presidential debate. And while foreign policy usually gets a brief mention in election debates, this one may be different. Vance has been an outspoken voice calling for a drawdown in U.S. aid to Ukraine and the Harris-Walz campaign has sought to turn its support for Ukraine into a winning message in battleground states like Pennsylvania that have a high population of Polish Americans and Ukrainian Americans. And of course, Iran’s strike against Israel would ideally move the foreign policy and national security discussion much higher. Right? Right?? Robbie will be part of the POLITICO team live-blogging the debate, so stay tuned!
| | THE CYBERSECURITY KITCHEN SINK: The Biden administration is poised to dump a list of cybersecurity measures into a blockbuster executive order set for release in January. And our friends at Morning Cybersecurity (for Pros!) have the scoop on what might end up in the cyber kitchen sink Two industry insiders, a former White House official and a senior administration official, told Morning Cyber that the executive order will likely address everything from zero trust in the federal government and supply chain security to the cybersecurity of government computer systems. One of the two insiders briefed on the order said it could be as long as 15 pages, and the other said it will include detailed sections on how to prevent a repeat of the biggest incidents this year, including the ransomware attack on Change Healthcare and the global IT outage triggered by cybersecurity giant CrowdStrike. AI will also be included in the order. Deputy national security adviser for cyber and emerging tech ANNE NEUBERGER previously told POLITICO the executive order was expected to have five sections that focus on building more secure software. Neuberger did not provide further details.
| | | |   | | | | | SOUTH KOREA’S BIG GUNS: South Korea unveiled its most powerful ballistic missile to date in a massive military ceremony today. As the Associated Press’ HYUNG-JIN KIM reports, Seoul’s new ballistic missiles are capable of penetrating North Korea’s underground bunker system. The disclosure of the weapons, South Korean leaders explicitly stated, was intended to deter aggression from Pyongyang. “If North Korea attempts to use nuclear weapons, it will face the resolute and overwhelming response of our military and the (South Korea)-U.S. alliance,” President YOON SUK YEOL said before an audience of thousands of troops at a military airport. “That day will be the end of the North Korean regime.”
| | HAWKS’ HARRIS HOPES: Rep. JAKE AUCHINCLOSS (D-Mass.) is among the lawmakers hopeful that a Harris presidency will unlock more U.S. support for Ukraine. “Ukraine has not gotten what it needs from President Biden,” Auchincloss told Natsec Daily, in an unusual rebuke of Biden’s Europe policy from someone in his own party. “It has a sword in its hand, but it's handcuffed so it can’t use it.” The Biden administration is facing pressure from Ukraine’s closest supporters in Washington and Europe to ease restrictions on how Ukraine can fire U.S.-made missiles to back its war effort, including into Russian territory. Auchincloss said he hopes Harris would unshackle Ukraine from those restrictions. “In Ukraine, she can unilaterally put Ukraine on a victory footing in her first day in office by authorizing [Ukrainian] strikes against Russian troops staging, and oil refining sites and missile launching sites using US weapons.”
| | UPPING THE ANTE ON TIGRAN GAMBARYAN: Advocates pushing for the release of jailed Binance executive TIGRAN GAMBARYAN are making a public play to ratchet pressure on the Nigerian government. A truck displaying information about Gambaryan’s case is making the rounds in Washington, circling around the Capitol, the White House and Nigeria’s embassy in the morning and early afternoons. Advocates told NatSec Daily the truck will be in Washington through Thursday. The promotional move comes as the family of the Binance executive has stepped up their warnings that his health is deteriorating while in Nigerian custody on dubious money laundering charges. The Nigerian government has rejected allegations that Gambaryan is being mistreated in Nigerian custody.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Lockheed Martin is delivering advanced radar capabilities primed for the future
We've established a legacy of producing high-performing solid-state radars, giving forces the range and precision they need to defend against advanced threats. Learn more. | | | | | — Former special presidential envoy for climate JOHN KERRY is rejoining the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace as a nonresident scholar in the sustainability, climate and geopolitics program. — MONICA M. MONTGOMERY is now special assistant in the Arms Control, Disarmament, and Nonproliferation Directorate of the National Security Council. She most recently was a special assistant in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of Arms Control, Deterrence, and Stability. — HUNTER LOVELL is now the press secretary for the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence and its chair, Rep. MIKE TURNER (R-Ohio). He most recently was the communications director for the Joint Economic Committee under Vice Chair DAVID SCHWEIKERT (R-Ariz.). He joins fellow House Majority Leader STEVE SCALISE alum JEFF NAFT on the communications team. — DIANE STAHELI is now director for emerging technology at the National Security Council. She most recently was assistant director for AI applications at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy.
| | — GEO SABA, Foreign Policy: How Congress can reclaim its role in U.S. foreign policy — SARAH ZUKERMAN DALY, Americas Quarterly: Why Sheinbaum may take a different path on Mexico’s security — EOIN DREA, POLITICO: Biden needs to be the last Irish-American US president
| | — Wilson Center's Polar Institute, 10 a.m.: U.K and U.S. Antarctic collaboration: The cutting edge of polar science and future directions — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 11:15 a.m.: Discussion on the Biden administration's approach to foreign policy with Deputy Secretary of State KURT CAMPBELL — Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 11:30 a.m.: U.S. policy in the post-October 7 Middle East: Looking back, looking forward — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs, 11:30 a.m.: A discussion on "France's assessment of the geostrategic landscape" with French Ambassador LAURENT BILI — Middle East Institute, 12:15 p.m.: U.S. strategy since Oct. 7: Assessing the Biden Administration's Middle East policy one year on Thanks to our editor, Rosie Perper, who always picks the worst moments to articulate her visions for this newsletter. Thanks to our producer, Giselle Ruhiyyih Ewing, who has impeccable timing. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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