"How I Turned Market Chaos into a Trading Triumph" Nate Bear, Lead Technical Tactician, Monument Traders Alliance Hey Gang, This market has put a lot of traders in a bind. No one denies the bullish trend in stocks right now. However, just as we saw today, things can turn on a dime, falling hard and fast. However, not every stock gets swept up in the selling landslide. All you have to do is know where to find them. To do that, we're going to dig into one of my favorite trade ideas I shared with Profit Surge Trader members yesterday during the LIVE session. But first, I want to shed some light on how I see the market shaping up for October. Current Market Earlier today (actually overnight), we got word that Iran planned to fire missiles at Israel. Predictably, oil prices soared while the rest of the market took a beating shortly after the open. At the same time, the volatility index (VIX) spiked to its highest levels in nearly a month. The S&P 500 fell over 1.25%, wiping out all the gains for the last week and a half. If you were a buy-and-hold investor, you lost dollar for dollar what you gained. But if you were an options trader like me, you had already locked in profits from the past two weeks. Since September 19th, I have taken around ten trades in Profit Surge Trader. So far, I've only had one loss, and I still have four open. Of these stocks, I want to focus on Oracle (ORCL) today. Why This Stock I rarely trade these bigger names unless they have heavy volatility, like Tesla or Nvidia. In fact, the last time I traded Oracle was in August of 2023. And you'd expect a company like this to get pulled down with the rest of the markets. But ever since it reported earnings on September 9th, the stock has shown considerable relative strength. And that's precisely why it showed up in my S.A.M AI Scanner. This 195-minute chart illustrates my TPS setup's three components: - Trend: An upward movement where each high is higher than the last.
- Pattern: A consolidation phase indicating potential breakout.
- Squeeze: A period of low volatility signaling a possible significant move.
Combining my TPS setup with relative strength greatly improves my odds of success. However, I've got one last trick up my sleeve. You see, Oracle isn't just trading at new recent highs. It's trading at new all-time highs. Every time the stock pulls back, there's a good chance short sellers put stop loss orders at the all-time high. So, whenever the stock breaks to new all-time highs, odds are we'll see a short squeeze, where a short seller closes their short position by buying the stock back, pushing price higher, causing another trader to buy the stock back to close their position, creating a cascade of buying pressure. Executing the Trade This combination of technical indicators and market insight allowed me to spot the opportunity in Oracle before the big move happened. At 12:41 PM, I purchased the Oracle 10/11 expiration $167.5 strike calls for $2.96. Just over an hour later, at 2:44 PM, I sold them near $3.50, locking in a solid profit. With the volatility we're experiencing, I decided to play it safe and secure those gains. As I mentioned to my Profit Surge Trader members: "With the volatility here, I'm going to play it safe and book these profits. I may come right back to this on a dip." This trade exemplifies how, even in uncertain markets, there are opportunities to capitalize on short-term movements if you have the right strategy and tools. |
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