News: What we're watching in Chicago

Monday, August 19, 2024

What we're watching in Chicago

Aug 19, 2024

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TOP LINE

The political world has been turned on its head since Republicans’ gathering in Milwaukee last month. Now, it’s Democrats’ turn in the spotlight.

The Democratic National Convention in Chicago will be the party’s biggest opportunity to portray itself as a unified front in the aftermath of the divisions over President Joe Biden’s candidacy. And this will be one of the most high-profile moments of Vice President Kamala Harris’ truncated campaign.

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A Harris-Walz DNC sign is seen by Chicago's United Center.

A Harris-Walz DNC sign is seen by the United Center in Chicago, Illinois, on Aug. 13, 2024. | Daniel Slim/AFP via Getty Images

But the celebrations won’t come without opposition. Pro-Palestinian activists are planning at least six major protests on the streets of Chicago during the convention, amid concerns of how a Harris administration might handle relations with Israel.

We checked in with some of POLITICO’s reporters ahead of the convention to see what they’ll be keeping an eye on this week.

What’s one thing you’re watching out for during the convention?

I'll be watching how and in what ways Harris chooses to emphasize (or not) the history-making nature of her candidacy. Hillary Clinton leaned into it hard, Barack Obama didn't. Harris is working new ground here, as she's the first Black woman, first South-Asian woman, to be running for president. It'll be fascinating to see if she even mentions it — or lets her physical presence say it all. — Elena Schneider

How Democrats use Biden — or don’t. He’s speaking on Monday, which is not exactly a highly sought-after spot in the week. How do they balance highlighting his big legislative accomplishments passed with Harris versus presenting her as a fresh face? — Holly Otterbein

I’m watching to see if the demonstrations against the war in Gaza will have any influence on the convention or the party’s platform. The convention could offer us a jarring split screen: party insiders enjoying a raucous, celebratory affair indoors vs. left-leaning activists, pushing for policy change, out in the streets. — Brakkton Booker

I'm going to be looking out for if and how the Democrats speaking at the convention — Harris and Walz, of course, but also the people filling other speaking slots — are tailoring their language and message to appeal to independent and disaffected Republican voters. Yes, the Republicans featured labor leaders and other speakers that likely had some appeal to a subsection of working-class Democrats, but overall, their convention offered a lot of red meat for the MAGA base. Will the Democrats' gathering primarily be an event to energize the progressive base, potentially turning off some middle-of-the-road voters who tune in? — Natalie Allison

Harris and Walz are still in the early stages of their compressed campaign. What messaging do you think is important for them to emphasize at the convention?

They need to show people they care about inflation and high prices without getting blamed for it since Harris is part of the current administration. Ditto for the border. — Holly

It may be boring, but it has to be about the economy. No other issue that is going sway independents or those disillusioned with politics to get off the couch more than selling a vision of how this newly-formed ticket is going to provide relief to everyday Americans. Harris got off to a good start unveiling her economic plan on Friday in North Carolina, but more details about how her administration would implement it are key. — Brakkton

After months of party infighting, Democrats are going to work overtime to put up a unified front at the convention. How will they do that?

It’s an awkward moment — the party forced out Biden and yet there will be standing ovations for him when he speaks at the convention. But honestly, I haven't seen the Democrats this united in years — they all lined up behind Harris in 24 hours. The biggest threat for division in Chicago will be over something else: the war in Gaza. — Holly

I'm sure they hope keeping pro-Palestinian protests far away from the convention floor will help. But it's an open question if they'll be able to stay there. — Elena

Former President Donald Trump doesn’t like when the spotlight isn’t on him. What can we expect from Republicans this week while the focus is on Chicago?

We can expect Trump to do everything he can to continue to draw media attention throughout the convention, and that includes holding events of his own. Every day. — Natalie

Happy Monday. Thanks to Brakkton (bbooker@politico.com, @brakktonbooker), Elena (eschneider@politico.com, @ec_schneider), Holly (hotterbein@politico.com, @hollyotterbein) and Natalie (nallison@politico.com, @natalie_allison) for the insight. Reach me at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616.

Days until the Alaska, Florida and Wyoming primaries: 1

Days until the Massachusetts primaries: 15

Days until the Delaware, New Hampshire and Rhode Island primaries: 22

Days until the 2024 election: 78

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CAMPAIGN INTEL

IT’S A NO FROM ME — Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) removed himself from the November ballot, where he was planning to run for reelection as an independent. Menendez last month was found guilty in his corruption trial and is resigning on Tuesday.

George Helmy, Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy’s former chief of staff, will succeed Menendez as a caretaker for the seat. Murphy said that Helmy will resign after the November general election results are certified, and he will then appoint the winner of that election: Democratic Rep. Andy Kim or Republican Curtis Bashaw.

THE VIEW FROM DOWN-BALLOT — “In recent days, dozens of Democrats in crucial House and Senate contests have finally gotten back post-Biden polling, and it shows the … Harris effect is, indeed, real,” POLITICO’s Ally Mutnick, Sarah Ferris and Anthony Adragna write. “Senate Democratic incumbents have been ahead in almost every single publicly released poll except in the red state of Montana. One Democratic group testing presidential numbers in competitive House districts rarely saw data that showed Biden above 50 percent; Harris is clearing that threshold and sometimes well above it.”

MCCARTHY’S REVENGE — Tomorrow is the last stop on former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s revenge tour, where his biggest foe, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), faces a primary. But don’t hold your breath for a Gaetz loss: “A person familiar with the McCarthy-backed efforts said days before the primary that the plans in the race were focused on dissuading Gaetz from running for governor,” POLITICO’s Gary Fineout reports. “The coalition felt that unseating Gaetz in the primary would be an impossible feat, but the initiative forced the Florida member of Congress to spend some of his resources. … It also provided some ad testing for messaging, like the allegations against Gaetz.”

REDISTRICTING REDUX — The Ohio Ballot Board approved language for a November ballot initiative that would institute a citizen-led redistricting commission — but “supporters of the issue plan to challenge the wording saying it will deceive voters,” the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Jessie Balmert and Eric Glynn write. The proposed language “paints a picture of a measure that encourages rather than curbs gerrymandering, defined as drawing lines to unfairly favor one political party over another.”

ENDORSEMENT CORNER — The moderate Blue Dog PAC is backing Democrat Whitney Fox ahead of the crowded Democratic primary for FL-13, held by Republican Rep. Anna Paulina Luna. The group has sought to grow its ranks and recently saw success with Rebecca Cooke’s win in the Democratic primary for WI-03 last week.

Presidential Big Board

THE VEEPSTAKES — Green Party candidate Jill Stein named Butch Ware her running mate. “This is truly a historic ticket bringing together a Jewish woman and Black Muslim man against genocide, endless war, climate collapse, and rampant injustice,” she wrote. Stein is currently on the ballot in around two dozen states, though she’s barely registering in the polls.

BALLOT BATTLE — Independent Cornel West was disqualified from the Michigan ballot “because of problems with the way a required document his campaign submitted was notarized,” per The Detroit News’ Craig Mauger.

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POLL POSITION

FIRST IN SCORE — OR-06 — It’s a tight race between Democratic Rep. Andrea Salinas and Republican Mike Erickson, who came less than 3 points shy of defeating her in the midterms. The incumbent has 45 percent and Erickson has 43 percent in a Cyngal poll conducted for Erickson’s campaign and the NRCC (516 likely voters, Aug.7-9, MoE +/- 4.29 percentage points).

PRESIDENTIAL — NATIONAL — Head-to-head, Harris is at 49 percent and Trump is at 45 percent, per a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll. With other candidates included, Harris has 47 percent, Trump is at 44 percent and independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is at 5 percent (1,975 registered voters, Aug. 9-13, MoE +/- 2.5 percentage points).

… ARIZONA — Harris has 50 percent of support and Trump has 45 percent in a head-to-head matchup, according to a poll from The New York Times/Siena College. With third-party candidates included, Harris has 47 percent, Trump has 43 percent and Kennedy has 5 percent (677 likely voters, Aug. 8-15, MoE +/- 4.4 percentage points).

… GEORGIA — Head to head, Trump has 50 percent and Harris has 46 percent in the NYT/Siena poll. On the full ballot, Trump has 47 percent, Harris has 44 percent and Kennedy has 4 percent (661 likely voters, Aug. 9-14, MoE +/- 4.4 percentage points).

… NEVADA — Forty-eight percent of likely voters back Trump, and 47 percent are behind Harris, per NYT/Siena. With third-party candidates in the mix, Trump has 46 percent, Harris has 44 percent and Kennedy has 4 percent (677 likely voters, Aug. 12-15, MoE +/- 4.4 percentage points).

… NORTH CAROLINA — Harris comes in at 49 percent and Trump has 47 percent in the NYT/Siena poll. On the full ballot, Harris has 46 percent, Trump has 44 percent and Kennedy has 4 percent (655 likely voters, Aug. 9-14, MoE +/- 4.2 percentage points).

… PENNSYLVANIA — Harris has 46 percent, Trump has 43 percent and Kennedy has 6 percent in a Franklin and Marshall College survey (920 registered voters, July 31-Aug. 11, MoE +/- 3.8 percentage points).

AZ-Sen — Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego received 51 percent in the NYT/Siena poll. Republican Kari Lake had 42 percent.

… Gallego and Lake are tied at 46 percent each in a Peak Insights poll for the NRSC (800 likely voters, July 31-Aug. 5, MoE +/- 3.0 percentage points).

NV-Sen — Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen earns 49 percent of support to Republican Sam Brown’s 40 percent in the NYT/Siena poll.

PA-Sen — Democratic Sen. Bob Casey leads Republican Dave McCormick 48 percent to 36 percent in the Franklin and Marshall poll.

NC-Gov — Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein has 49 percent of support in the NYT/Siena poll. Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson has 39 percent.

CA-45 — Republican Rep. Michelle Steel and Democrat Derek Tran are tied, each coming in at 47 percent, per a Normington, Petts and Associates survey conducted for DCCC (500 likely voters, July 29-31, MoE +/- 4.4 percentage points).

PA-10 — Democrat Janelle Stelson comes in at 48 percent to Republican Rep. Scott Perry’s 47 percent, according to an Upswing Research poll for DCCC (600 likely voters, July 30-Aug. 2, MoE +/- 4.0 percentage points).

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AS SEEN ON TV

FIRST IN SCORE — C(TV) U LATER — Democratic digital firm DSPolitical has inked a partnership using Beeswax, part of ad platform FreeWheel, which will allow advertisers to match voter file data to household-level identifiers for connected TV advertising campaigns. Mark Jablonowski, the president of DSPolitical, called it “an enormous leap forward in targeted digital political advertising” and added that they can deliver “CTV ads with even greater precision.”

FIRST IN SCORE – SENATE BATTLEGROUNDS — Americans for Prosperity is out with a $3.5 million buy that will target Sens. Jon Tester (Mont.), Rosen, Sherrod Brown (Ohio), Casey, and Tammy Baldwin (Wis.) through ads on connected TV and digital, details of which were first shared with Score.

One spot attacks the incumbents for supporting policies that “increase the cost of living,” and the other blames them for “creat[ing] 40-year high inflation” that will impact children’s futures. Both call “Bidenomics” — the term for Biden’s economic policies — “badenomics.”

ROUNDUP TIME — Check out the latest batch of ads here. And here are a select few:

PRESIDENTIAL — Trump is using “Bidenomics” to go after Harris on the economy.

… MAGA Inc., the pro-Trump super PAC, features a woman blaming Harris for releasing “an illegal immigrant drug dealer” who attacked her, saying that as San Francisco district attorney Harris put “convicted felons back on the streets.”

WI-Sen — Republican Eric Hovde has his wife, Sharon, saying that Baldwin’s “dirty campaign has gone too far,” and highlights his work to support single mothers. Another spot that touts his charitable work also features Sharon.

NH-Gov — Former Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte says that her “Democratic opponents mislead women about abortion” and emphasizes that she won’t change the state’s law.

… Put New Hampshire First, which is backed by the Democratic Governors Association, features a woman who had to receive an abortion for a child who wouldn’t survive, and accuses Ayotte of supporting an abortion ban.

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: “As a public servant, it was my duty to yield my seat to you … Or maybe I was totally on time, but went to the wrong airport.” — Former Democratic New York City Mayor Bill DeBlasio on missing his flight to the DNC.

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