| | | | |  | | By Matt Berg and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  The pressure is on Kamala Harris this week to use the Democratic National Convention to appease voters who are concerned about Washington’s support for Israel. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | With help from Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric The pressure is on Vice President KAMALA HARRIS this week to use the Democratic National Convention to appease voters who are concerned about Washington’s support for Israel amid its disastrous war in the Gaza Strip. But a cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas — which top administration officials were originally hopeful would come together over the weekend — appears to be faltering at a time when the stakes are increasingly high. “This is a decisive moment — probably the best, maybe the last, opportunity to get the hostages home, to get a cease-fire and to put everyone on a better path to enduring peace and security,” Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN said in Tel Aviv today. Following a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU later in the day, Blinken said Netanyahu “confirmed to me that Israel supports the bridging proposal. ... The next important step is for Hamas to say ‘yes.’” He didn’t say whether the proposal addresses Hamas’ concerns. After Hamas rejected the United States’ proposal Sunday, however, people with experience working in the region are doubtful a deal is on the horizon — even though President JOE BIDEN said Friday that a deal is “closer than we’ve ever been.” Hamas and the Islamic Jihad also claimed responsibility for a bombing near a Tel Aviv synagogue today, which won’t help negotiations. “I'm not personally optimistic at this point that there will be an agreement in the short term, but I would be very, very happy to be wrong,” ANDREW MILLER, who served as deputy assistant secretary of State for Israeli-Palestinian affairs until June, told NatSec Daily. There are still major disagreements that Israel and Hamas negotiators need to reconcile, he said, and it isn’t helping that Netanyahu and Hamas leader YAHYA SINWAR have both vetoed parts or added more conditions to the deal. “Even if the probability of reaching an agreement is small, it's hard to think of a better strategy, both for securing the release of the hostages and stopping the fighting, but also in preventing regional conflagration,” said Miller, now a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress. As the convention kicks off in Chicago today, good news on the cease-fire deal might have helped calm the thousands of protesters expected to call on her to endorse the deal as well as an arms embargo on Israel. A sign that the pro-Palestinian movement is already having an impact: The DNC agreed to feature its first-ever panel on Palestinian rights today after urging by the Uncommitted National Movement, a group that had called on people to vote “uncommitted” in Democratic primaries earlier this year to protest Biden’s handling of the Israel-Gaza war. The group’s actions, including the panel, are “changing the course of how we discuss Palestinians, Palestinian human rights and self-determination within the Democratic Party,” LEXIE ZEDAN, a co-chair of Uncommitted, told NatSec Daily. “It's really showcasing our movement and our power.” The family members of American hostages being held in Gaza are also at the DNC this week, putting pressure on the Harris campaign to use her platform to push for a cease-fire deal and call for Palestinian human rights to be protected, said LIZ NAFTALI, the great aunt of an American released during the pause in fighting last year. “The people that are on the streets screaming and shouting, they have every right to do that, but if they really want their goal, … I need all 25,000 of them to scream out loud, ‘It's time for a cease-fire deal,'” Naftali told NatSec Daily.
| | | KYIV’S MULTIPLE OFFENSIVES: Ukraine is fighting on multiple fronts, simultaneously trying to thwart Russian advances in the east, gain territory in Russia’s Kursk region and ratchet pressure on allies to step up their support. Russian forces captured the town of Zalizne in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region, per Reuters, and are making steady gains toward key hubs Toretsk and Pokrovsk. Ukrainian officials ordered evacuations of Pokrovsk ahead of the Russian advance, warning that just weeks remain before Russia takes the city, according to The Associated Press’ ALEX BABENKO. In a speech on Sunday, Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY urged Washington, London and Paris to speed up weapons shipments, arguing that the current pace is not fast enough to sustain Ukraine’s military advances. “Decisions are needed, as are timely logistics for the announced aid packages,” Zelenskyy said in an evening address. The comments, which prompted a spokesperson for British Prime Minister KEIR STARMER to emphasize today that London’s support for Ukraine remains unwavering, come as Ukraine is still gaining ground in Kursk, destroying several bridges in the Kursk region and seizing hundreds of miles of Russian territory since it began its surprise incursion into Russian territory earlier this month. US-ROK DRILLS: The U.S. and South Korean militaries began their yearly summer joint military exercises, as analysts worry that Pyongyang may exploit the U.S. election in November and further ratchet up tensions on the Korean peninsula. As The Associated Press’ KIM TONG-HYUNG reports, the drills, which will involve more than 19,000 South Korean service members, will involve 11 days of computer-simulated war games and field exercises. The allies have said this year’s drills will focus on matching the North’s increased threats, including missiles, GPS jamming and cyberattacks. The exercises will also include nuclear attack preparations. North Korea has in recent months unveiled new advances in its nuclear weapons program, staging ceremonies to celebrate the delivery of hundreds of nuclear warhead launchers and has simulated nuclear attacks in past military exercises. DEADLIEST YEAR FOR AID WORKERS: More aid workers were killed globally last year than any year before, the United Nations announced today, and warned that 2024 may be even worse. Two-hundred eighty aid workers were killed in 33 countries last year, according to the U.N.'s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. That’s more than double the number of workers killed the year prior. More than half of last year’s deaths were counted during the first three months of Israel’s military operation in Gaza, mostly caused by airstrikes, the U.N. said. This year, more than 170 aid workers had been killed as of early August, so 2024 “may be on track for an even deadlier outcome,” the U.N. said in a statement. IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe and @JGedeon1.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: What matters to us is protecting what matters most.
Lockheed Martin’s mission is to protect the ones who serve in their service to the nation. It’s why we lead the way in developing new defense tech and pushing the capabilities of what’s possible to bring security to an unsecure world. Learn more. | | | | | TARGETING TRUMP: If you used to work for DONALD TRUMP, watch your back (and your computer). Three former senior national security officials told our friends at Weekly Cybersecurity that they’d been informed Iranian hackers had targeted their devices or accounts since Trump left office in 2021. Among them was JOHN BOLTON, Trump’s former national security adviser. “The fact is that, over time, yes, the Iranians have tried to hack into my computer system and my various business computer systems and political operations,” said Bolton, a noted Iran hawk. The two other former officials who were targeted were granted anonymity due to concerns it could expose them to further hacking attempts. One worry among the group is that the hackers might have been trying to get a hold of Trump’s schedule — the kind of information that could be used to plot an assassination attempt as payback for the Trump White House’s 2020 killing of Iranian military leader QASEM SOLEIMANI. “This is clearly related, or could be, to an assassination campaign against former Trump officials,” said one official. That person confirmed receiving a briefing from the FBI that there was a successful intrusion into their email account roughly a year after they’d stopped working for the White House. The person declined to provide details of that briefing. Bolton declined to speak to the motives of the hackers. But it’s true, he said, that “access to somebody's schedule could be very, very helpful to the Iranians.” Iran’s permanent mission to the U.N. did not reply to a request for comment. It has previously denied that Tehran is trying to assassinate any U.S. political figures. The FBI also did not reply to a request for comment. Read: Encrypted app used in campus protest planning deployed for DNC demonstrations by our own IRIE SENTNER, JOE ANUTA and BETSY WOODRUFF SWAN
| | BERLIN’S INTEREST GAMES: Germany is insisting that its attempts to fund military assistance to Ukraine based on the dividends off frozen Russian assets won’t affect weapons deliveries or constitute a reduction in Berlin’s support for Kyiv, per The Associated Press. Over the weekend, German newspapers reported that Berlin has already implemented a moratorium on military aid to Ukraine and will no longer fulfill requests from Kyiv out of the federal budget, instead looking to use the proceeds from frozen Russian assets as outlined in a June G7 loan deal. But government spokesperson WOLFGANG BÜCHNER argued that it’s reasonable for planned support to diminish as the “windfall profits” from seized Russian assets increase. He told reporters “the chancellor’s word is still valid that support for Ukraine will be continued for as long as necessary, and that no one, above all the Russian president, can hope that we will let up.” The new suggestions come as Germany has agonized over how to sustain its support for Ukraine amid a fiscal impasse. Military assistance to Ukraine has regularly been caught in the crosshairs of the country’s domestic spending battles, as the German government seeks to mollify coalition partners and comply with strict debt rules. Ukraine is rejecting claims that this would represent diminished support from Berlin. A spokesperson for Zelenskyy’s office didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. But according to an internal Ukrainian government document sent today which sets out talking points for Ukrainian officials, “statements about the termination of support for Ukraine by Germany are incorrect and manipulative.” The document, obtained by NatSec Daily, continues: “Last year, the amount of aid to Ukraine from Germany increased at the parliamentary stage of adopting the budget in the fall.” ‘DRONE HELLSCAPE’ FOR TAIPEI: U.S. officials have indicated for years that drones would play a major role in any defense of Taiwan against an invasion from China, and details of those plans have started to come out. As Wired’s JARED KELLER reports, public comments from top defense officials and think tank reports are giving a window into the Pentagon’s strategic vision for a “drone hellscape” and the limitations that could stymy Washington’s plans to defend Taiwan. At the core of the strategy is partnerships with the defense industry, including “nontraditional” defense manufacturers as part of the Department of Defense’s Replicator Initiative, to secure the needed drones to wage such a defense and bridge a wide gulf between Washington and Beijing in terms of both militaries’ arsenal of drones. The Pentagon and others are also closely watching Ukraine’s usage of drones on the battlefield for insights about how drones can be effectively used to scramble defenses and wage offensive attacks. The drone strategy fits into what experts have described as a “porcupine strategy” designed to inflict incredibly high losses on an invading Chinese force.
| | NDAA BOOST BREAKDOWN: The Congressional Research Service is out with a fresh comparison of how the House and Senate Armed Services committees altered major portions of Biden's national defense budget request in their versions of the NDAA, our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) report. The latest NDAA primer outlines how much each chamber's version of the annual policy bill added or subtracted from specific accounts in the defense budget, such as DOD procurement, research and development, operations and maintenance and personnel programs. The most notable changes clocked by the CRS come from the SASC-approved NDAA, which authorizes a $25 billion boost above the level sought by Biden and capped by last year's debt limit agreement. CRS notes that the largest part of that proposed bump is dedicated to Pentagon procurement, which senators increased by $10 billion more than the request. Operations and maintenance and R&D accounts, meanwhile, see hikes of $9 billion and $3 billion under the Senate bill. LOOKING FOR A ‘MODEL’ UN: A bipartisan group of lawmakers introduced a bill threatening to pull U.S. funding for the United Nations if it seeks to limit Israel’s ability to participate within the international body. As Fox News’ ELIZABETH ELKIND reports, the bill, introduced by Reps. MIKE LAWLER (R-N.Y.) and JOSH GOTTHEIMER (D-N.J.), would strip U.S. funding for any U.N. entity “that expels, downgrades or suspends membership, or otherwise restricts the participation of Israel such that it may not participate fully and equivalently with 15 other member states of the United Nations or the respective fund, program, specialized agency, or other related entity.” It comes as the U.N. has stepped up its scrutiny of Israel over the war in Gaza. The bill, sponsored by over 20 lawmakers from both parties, is expected to pass in the GOP-controlled House if it comes up for a vote, though faces an unclear path forward in the Senate.
| | | |   | | | | | SABINA SHOAL SHOWDOWN: The Chinese and Philippines coast guards are facing off again today in the South China Sea, this time over who’s to blame for an early morning collision at the Sabina Shoal, per The Washington Post’s REBECCA TAN and LYRIC LI. Manila and Beijing are blaming the other for the close call between their countries’ vessels. China’s coast guard claims they tried to stop a Philippines vessel from entering the Sabina Shoal, but the boat acted “in an unprofessional and dangerous manner, resulting in a collision.” The Philippines, meanwhile, argues that Chinese ships subjected two of its coast guard vessels to “unlawful and aggressive maneuvers” as they headed to the atoll a hundred miles off the coast of the Philippines’ outermost island of Palawan. While the vessels suffered minimal damage, the encounter comes as China and the Philippines have increasingly clashed in the South China Sea, raising the specter of conflict between the U.S. adversary and the U.S. ally in the hotly disputed body of water. CHECHEN CYBERTRUCK? Tech mogul ELON MUSK is denying reports that he gifted a Tesla Cybertruck to a Chechen warlord closely aligned with the Kremlin, our own SEB STARCEVIC reports. “You think I donated a Cybertruck to a Russian general?” Musk wrote on his social media platform, X. “Yet another example of how much the legacy media lies.” On Saturday, Chechen warlord RAMZAN KADYROV, a close ally of Putin who effectively rules the Caucasus territory as a vassal of the Kremlin, posted a video to Telegram of him driving a Cybertruck fitted with a machine gun on top and thanked Musk for sending it. He said “Elon, thank you! Come to Grozny, I will receive you as my most dear guest!” and added that he would send the Cybertruck to the battlefield in Ukraine.
| | | | — TOMÁS KLOOSTERMAN is joining Swing Left as national political director. He previously was senior adviser at the State Department Office of Global Partnerships and is an SBA and Latino Victory Project alum.
| | — JONATHAN RUGMAN, BBC News: Power, oil and a $450m painting — insiders on the rise of Saudi's Crown Prince — UNA HAJDARI, ANTONIA ZIMMERMANN and STUART LAU, POLITICO: Serbia’s leader wins the West with promises of “white gold” — but loses the people — MICHAEL BECKLEY, The New York Times: The China Hangover Is Here
| | — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9 a.m.: Gaza's Looming Polio Threat — Brookings Institution, 10 a.m.: The Wagner Group and Russia in Africa one year Prigozhin's death — FiscalNote's FrontierView, 10 a.m.: Argentina: Is a turning point near? — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, 12 p.m.: Heading Toward War? Reevaluating Taiwan’s Status Quo Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who will never appease us. Thanks to our producer, Emily Lussier, who addresses our concerns with aplomb.
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