What mass deportation would mean for the workforce

Delivered every Monday by 10 a.m., Weekly Shift examines the latest news in employment, labor and immigration politics and policy.

Aug 19, 2024 View in browser   By Lawrence Ukenye Former President Donald Trump and Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) have previewed plans to deport millions of undocumented immigrants. | Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images QUICK FIX A TALL (AND COSTLY) TASK: Donald Trump and his running mate Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) have campaigned on an aggressive crackdown on illegal immigration that has worried advocates that the former president actually intends to go further on the issue than he did during his first term. “We are going to start the largest mass deportation in the history of our country because we have no choice, it’s not sustainable,” he said at a Mar-a-Lago press conference earlier this month. Experts and think tanks have long chronicled how deporting millions of undocumented immigrants would hurt the U.S. economy, but Trump’s and Vance’s attention to the issue on the campaign trail is reigniting debate on just how difficult it would be — and just how disastrous for the American workforce. “We could imagine having pretty severe [worker] shortages in certain industries that were unexpected,” said Tara Watson, director of the Center for Economic Security and Opportunity at the Brookings Institution. Immigration has helped shield the U.S. from the economic headwinds that other developed nations have faced emerging from the Covid-19 pandemic and has provided the country with a robust, often cheap, source of labor. For every one million immigrants seized and deported from the U.S., roughly 88,000 native-born workers were driven out of employment due to businesses adjusting capital and operations to account for the reduction of labor, according to a 2023 University of Colorado study. Some experts even sounded the alarm when President Joe Biden took executive action in June aimed at significantly restricting the number of migrants seeking asylum at the southern border. "We have an economy that is graying, like the workforce is graying, and we have all sorts of industries that are struggling to meet their workforce needs," an immigration expert at a prominent business group, granted anonymity to discuss Trump’s proposed mass deportation policy, told Shift. Several business groups, including the powerful U.S. Chamber of Commerce, have repeatedly called for bipartisan immigration reform but have avoided weighing in on the details of both Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris’ proposals. During his first presidential campaign, Trump vowed to create a “deportation force” to remove millions of undocumented immigrants. But he dialed down his rhetoric to primarily focus on criminals and the construction of a border wall after facing pushback from Democrats in Congress and courts that sought to curb his administration’s enforcement. Trump's campaign told Shift in a statement that Harris is to blame for the rise in illegal immigration due to her role in reversing the former president's policies. "As President Trump has said, the millions of illegals Harris has resettled across America should not get comfortable because very soon they will be going home," Trump spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said. GOOD MORNING. It’s Monday, Aug. 19. Welcome back to Morning Shift, your go-to tipsheet on labor and employment-related immigration. Send feedback, tips and exclusives to nniedzwiadek@politico.com and lukenye@politico.com. Follow us on X at @NickNiedz and @Lawrence_Ukenye.   During unprecedented times, POLITICO Pro Analysis gives you the insights you need to focus your policy strategy. Live briefings, policy trackers, and and people intelligence secures your seat at the table. Learn more.     ELECTION 2024 Want to receive this newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You’ll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day’s biggest stories. The International Brotherhood Teamsters will have an on-stage presence at the Democratic National Convention. | Francis Chung/POLITICO ENDORSEMENTS AREN’T EVERYTHING: Organized labor will play a dominant role in this week’s Democratic National Convention as Harris looks to win over rank-and-file union members who are backing former president Donald Trump, our Holly Otterbein and Brittany Gibson reported. Although top labor leaders and unions lined up behind Harris in the days after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race, many groups acknowledge that Trump still appeals to some of their members. What they’re saying: Randi Weingarten, president of the American Federation of Teachers and a Harris ally, said “labor and labor leaders are not monoliths, nor do we have magic wands, nor do we have fairy dust. People make their own decisions.” THE SILENT TREATMENT IS OVER: Harris will meet with International Brotherhood of Teamsters General President Sean O’Brien for a roundtable discussion, the union said Friday. The Teamsters held similar sit-downs with Trump, Biden and several other presidential candidates this cycle. A date has not yet been set for the meeting with Harris, union spokesperson Kara Deniz said in a statement. “We look forward to Vice President Harris joining a roundtable of rank-and-file Teamsters to discuss the issues of importance to workers,” Deniz said. The union in recent weeks has begun to show slight changes from the neutral posture it sought to convey after O’Brien spoke at the Republican National Committee. The Teamsters leader slammed Trump for advocating for firing striking employees and the union asked members last week to vote for who it should endorse. AROUND THE AGENCIES WAIT AND SEE: Last year the Biden administration credited acting Labor Secretary Julie Su with helping to mediate a deal between the West Coast port operators and the dockworkers’ union. Now, the Labor Department is keeping close tabs on a similar situation brewing on the other side of the country. “Parties always seem far apart until they're not, and we don't get involved in every negotiation,” a senior Labor Department official said Friday. “So at this point, we're just tracking what's going on and [are] hopeful that the parties will reach a good agreement.” Historically, the East Coast port negotiations have been less fraught than those out West, though International Longshoremen’s Association is telling its 85,000 members to prep for a strike if a deal isn’t ready when the current contract expires Oct. 1 — just weeks before Election Day. On the Hill TEXAS LAWMAKER FACES LAWSUIT: Alex Chadwell, a former aide to Rep. Troy Nehls (R-Texas), is suing the lawmaker over allegations that he and his staff made homophobic comments toward him and attempted to force him out of his job, our Chris Marquette reports. Details: The lawsuit, which was filed last week, says that Chadwell transferred from Nehls’ Washington, D.C., office to Richmond, Texas, to escape the “anti-gay hostility” he faced from his boss. The filing alleges that Nehls and his wife stopped interacting with Chadwell at functions after they learned he was gay. The staffer also claims he was stripped of some of his previous roles, including accompanying Nehls on trips to his district. “There is no merit whatsoever to Mr. Chadwell's claim and the allegations of sexual orientation harassment are totally false,” said Emily Matthews, a Nehls spokesperson. “The office intends to mount a vigorous defense in this matter and is confident that it will be exonerated once all the facts are known.” Chadwell referred POLITICO to his attorney, who said it was “reprehensible that someone could be forced out of a job because of their sexuality in this day and age.”  More from the Hill: "Why Dem lawmakers are giving Harris a pass on policy proposals," from our Nicholas Wu and Daniella Diaz. IMMIGRATION HARRIS’ BORDER PLAYBOOK: The vice president’s record confronting illegal immigration as a California prosecutor highlights how she may pursue the “strong border security” she touted on the campaign trail earlier this month, our Blake Jones reported. Her efforts to crack down on gangs and pursuing cross-border criminality earned her support from Republican district attorneys who backed her 2014 reelection bid and her 2016 Senate campaign. 2024 angle: Harris shied from highlighting this record during her 2020 presidential campaign, but she’s now leaning in as part of Democrats’ rightward shift on the issue. The vice president is hoping to undermine attacks from Trump, who’s sought to portray her as soft on the border, dubbed her Biden’s “border czar” and blamed her for the record number of migrants trying to enter the U.S. In the Workplace PAYDAY: The Biden administration finalized regulations last week that will boost pay for educators at Head Start, a federally-funded early-learning program for low-income families, our Mackenzie Wilkes reports. Workforce issues: The rule aims to reduce staff turnover that soared during the pandemic, and it comes after Biden directed HHS to close the gap between elementary school teachers and Head Start educators, who earned roughly $39,096 in 2022. Most instructors in the program could see a $10,000 wage increase as part of the rule. A NEW WAY: University co-op programs are surging in popularity by allowing students to gain more paid experience while boosting their chances of securing a job after they graduate, the Wall Street Journal reports. Rising higher education costs also has families and businesses mulling whether universities are producing graduates that companies need, especially with recent data showing roughly half of college graduates end up in jobs that don’t make use of their degrees.   DON’T MISS OUR AI & TECH SUMMIT: Join POLITICO’s AI & Tech Summit for exclusive interviews and conversations with senior tech leaders, lawmakers, officials and stakeholders about where the rising energy around global competition — and the sense of potential around AI and restoring American tech knowhow — is driving tech policy and investment. REGISTER HERE.     WHAT WE'RE READING — OPINION: “Finally, someone wants to buy your old office,” from The Washington Post. — "Court tosses union’s bid to defend rule on deadly solvent," from POLITICO's E&E News. — "America’s economy is wildly confusing right now. Here’s what’s really going on," from CNN. THAT’S YOUR SHIFT!   Follow us on Twitter Nick Niedzwiadek @nickniedz Lawrence Ukenye @Lawrence_Ukenye   Follow us

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