| | | | |  | | By Matt Berg, Lara Seligman and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  Fleur Hassan-Nahoum, deputy mayor of Jerusalem, said Israel shouldn’t be expected to help Gazans — suggesting that it would be extremely difficult for the U.S. to convince Israel to change course. | Henry Nicholls/AFP via Getty Images | With help from Daniella Cheslow, Maggie Miller and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Matt| Email Eric After our discussions with U.S. officials and lawmakers over the past week, a top Israeli politician said what some of them have been thinking — but won’t say on record about President JOE BIDEN’s recent actions on the conflict. “Biden is contradicting himself,” FLEUR HASSAN-NAHOUM, the deputy mayor of Jerusalem, told NatSec Daily in an interview. “He says this is the ‘red line,’ but then he says we're always going to support Israel.” Hassan-Nahoum, an ally to Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, was referring to Biden’s remarks over the weekend , in which he said if Israel enters the southern city of Rafah it would be a “red line” for Washington. Biden then added that the U.S. still won’t put conditions on sending weapons to Israel because it needs defensive systems, and expressed dedication to Israel. Netanyahu responded by vowing to enter Rafah in an interview with our parent company Axel Springer. Hassan-Nahoum said Israel shouldn’t be expected to help Gazans — suggesting that it would be extremely difficult for the U.S. to convince Israel to change course. On top of that, the Muslim holy month of Ramadan has begun, raising the stakes after a cease-fire deal faltered. “Why is it our responsibility? We were attacked,” Hassan-Nahoum said of delivering aid to Gaza. “It's absolutely a ridiculous concept that we somehow should be responsible for the humanitarian aid of the Gazans … so if the Americans want to come in and help them, I think great.” She added: “We're going to have a very rough Ramadan month.” Prior to this weekend, administration officials had explicitly said they don’t support an invasion of the city unless Israel has a plan to protect civilians. While Biden made no mention of that crucial caveat, White House spokesperson OLIVIA DALTON told reporters that the president still believes it’s a necessary part of any operation in Rafah. “I don't think that it's productive to assign a ‘red line’ sort of terminology to what is a very complex set of policies,” Dalton said today. “The president was very clear about what his overall approach and view of this situation is and what needs to happen.” But Israel still has not shared a “credible and implementable” plan to protect civilians in Rafah with the Biden administration, a U.S. official, granted anonymity to speak about sensitive discussions, told NatSec Daily. Until it does so, the administration’s clear position is that a ground invasion of the city, which would cause a high number of civilian casualties, should not proceed. Biden’s critics say it makes little sense why the U.S. is willing to build a floating port and airdrop humanitarian supplies into the Gaza Strip before pressuring Israel to ramp up its own aid deliveries. The White House still has leverage, like putting conditions on weapons it sends to Israel without taking away defensive capabilities such as Iron Dome, according to lawmakers. Loyal NatSec Daily readers will be reminded of the president’s “tough love, light touch” approach, which allows the White House to influence Israel's military operation and negotiate for a cease-fire deal. While Biden keeps trying to toe the line ahead of the presidential election, Hassan-Nahoum suggested that many Arab countries, which also view Hamas as a danger that must be rooted out, could welcome Biden’s main opponent back into office because of his perceived “strength.” Compared with DONALD TRUMP, who signed the Abraham Accords to normalize diplomatic relations between Israel and Arab states, Biden could risk looking weak if he doesn’t stand by Israel, she argued. “In the Arab world, people respect strength, and people respect people who respect themselves. This whole idea of [President BARACK] OBAMA ‘leading from behind’ … is almost a joke,” Hassan-Nahoum said. “What works for the Middle East is strength.”
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Turn the Entire Battlefield into your Field of Vision
Today's military landscape features systems and platforms engineered for standalone operations. Embracing our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is at the forefront of defense innovation, weaving connections between defense and digital domains. Learn more. | | | | | PENTAGON PROBLEMS: A top Defense Department official warned that congressional gridlock means the Pentagon still does not have the money to replace some $10 billion worth of weapons it has sent to Ukraine, our own LARA SELIGMAN reports. DOD officials expect funding to replenish the equipment the U.S. has already sent to Ukraine to be included in Biden’s supplemental request, which provides billions of additional dollars in aid for Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel. But that legislation has languished on Capitol Hill for months amid partisan bickering. If DOD does not get the funding to backfill its stocks, the impact of that “ongoing hole” will ultimately be felt by the U.S. military’s own forces, the senior DOD official said. “We have not been able to, with the funding we have to date — and there’s a big funding piece waiting in the supplemental — replenish everything we’ve already given to Ukraine,” the official told reporters. “So it would come back on our own readiness on our own stockpile to a certain extent if we can’t get new funding.” BLINKEN’S HAITI PUSH: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN is in Jamaica today to meet with regional leaders as the U.S. pushes Haiti to set up a transitional government while the gangs threaten the nation’s stability. Blinken’s trip to Kingston comes as the country’s central government has essentially collapsed over the last few weeks. Gangs, which already controlled much of the capital of Port-au-Prince, have stepped up their increasingly bold attacks on government facilities, engaging in daylight gunfire with remaining government forces, according to The Associated Press’ EVENS SANON. On Saturday, the State Department announced it would be evacuating the embassy in Port-au-Prince, as Lara reported. Kenyan leaders agreed to lead a policing mission to Haiti, but that push has stalled amid reviews by the Kenyan Supreme Court and other government bodies. The U.S. has said it won’t put troops in Haiti, wary of the fraught history of foreign interventions in the country. Brazil, which led the scandal-plagued United Nations Stabilization Mission in Haiti from 2004 to 2017, also declined to reprise a leading role. NEW WAY TO DEAL WITH KIM: The top U.S. military official in South Korea said his focus has shifted from stopping North Korea’s build-up of nukes to deterring KIM JONG UN from using them. The plan for doing that: the old carrot and stick. Kim has repeatedly threatened to use nukes preemptively over the past year, citing what he has called escalatory behavior as South Korea, Japan and the U.S. participate in military drills in the region. “We have to assure him that positive will be met with positive actions, and negative will be met with negative,” PAUL LaCAMERA, a U.S. four-star general who leads the American military personnel in South Korea, told The Wall Street Journal’s TIMOTHY MARTIN. His comment comes as the U.S. and South Korea wrap up joint exercises this week in the region, aimed at responding to the range of threats posed by Kim’s military. WORLD WIDE THREATS: The governments of China, Russia and Iran are likely to attempt to interfere in the upcoming November U.S. presidential elections, according to the U.S. intelligence community’s 2024 Worldwide Threat Assessment released today. China: As our own MAGGIE MILLER reports (for Pros!), China “may attempt to influence the U.S. elections in 2024 at some level because of its desire to sideline critics of China and magnify U.S. societal divisions,” the report found. Russia: The report also warns specifically that Moscow “is contemplating how U.S. electoral outcomes in 2024 could impact Western support of Ukraine and probably will attempt to interfere in the elections in ways that best support its interests and goals.” Iran: The intelligence community is keeping an eye on potential interference by Iran, as hackers tried to interfere in the last presidential election: “The same Iranian actors have evolved their activities and developed a new set of techniques, combining cyber and influence capabilities, that Iran could deploy during the U.S. election cycle in 2024,” the report reads. IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily — and on Matt and Eric’s first day helming the ship nonetheless! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | | | YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics. | | | | | | | | | NOT ‘A PENNY’ FOR UKRAINE: Hungarian leader VIKTOR ORBÁN said Trump will cut off assistance to Ukraine if he wins in November, our own CLAUDIA CHIAPPA reports. “He will not give a penny in the Ukraine-Russia war,” Orbán told Hungarian state media Sunday. “Therefore, the war will end, because it is obvious that Ukraine can not stand on its own feet.” Orbán also said that Trump has a “detailed plan” to end the war in Ukraine, which marries with Hungary’s interests, and praised him as a “man of peace.” Trump has repeatedly said he can end the Ukraine war in a day, but hasn’t offered details on how that would happen. The comments from Orbán follow a huddle between the two allies at Mar-a-Lago in Florida on Friday which was criticized by the White House.
| | RAIMONDO TALKS EXPORT CONTROLS: Commerce Secretary GINA RAIMONDO said today the U.S. is keeping further export controls for advanced computer chips on the table as a measure to counter China, according to the AP’s JIM GOMEZ. “We look at this every single day,” Raimondo said in Manila. “Technology is changing faster than ever, which means we have to wake up every day and ask ourselves, `Are we doing enough?’” Raimondo’s comments come as China continues to develop advanced and sophisticated military technology, including hypersonic missiles and artificial intelligence. Raimondo added that “we cannot allow China to have access, for their military advancement, to our more sophisticated technology,” though she stopped short of saying that the U.S. would fully decouple from China. Check out our own CHRISTINE MUI’s deep dive into how Congress defanged Biden’s big science push. It's worth a read if you missed it this weekend. Read: America’s election chiefs are worried AI is coming for them by our own ZACH MONTELLARO
| | UKRAINE’S JET TIMELINE: Preparations are all set for Ukrainian pilots to begin training on F-16 fighter jets in Romania and begin deploying them as soon as the summer, but not as many expected, The New York Times’ LARA JAKES reports. Instructors and the F-16 jets are waiting at Romania’s Fetesti air base, but Ukrainian pilots have yet to arrive. This means that just a dozen pilots will be ready to fly the planes into combat after training over the last ten months in Denmark, the U.K. and the U.S. RUSSIA RAMPS UP ARTILLERY PRODUCTION: Russia is poised to overtake the U.S. and the EU in terms of its artillery munitions productions, according to CNN’s KATIE BO LILLIS, NATASHA BERTRAND, OREN LIEBERMANN and HALEY BRITZKY. According to NATO intelligence shared with CNN, Russia is on track to produce three million munitions a month, dwarfing the U.S. and European Union’s 1.2 million munition production capacity at a critical moment for the Ukrainian war effort. AUKUS AT THE OSCARS: Here at NatSec Daily, we, like many national security aficionados, were not surprised that Oppenheimer won Best Picture. We were very surprised, though, to see a commercial for AUKUS submarines during last night’s Oscars. But there it was. “It’s a new day,” the narrator says as footage pans over a facility manufacturing a submarine. “Through AUKUS, a partnership built upon cutting-edge American, Australian and British technologies, we’ll develop state-of-the-art, next-generation submarines and build something stronger together.” Then again, that wasn’t remotely the strangest thing to have happened at last night’s ceremony. Not even close.
| | | | JOIN US ON 3/21 FOR A TALK ON FINANCIAL LITERACY: Americans from all communities should be able to save, build wealth, and escape generational poverty, but doing so requires financial literacy. How can government and industry ensure access to digital financial tools to help all Americans achieve this? Join POLITICO on March 21 as we explore how Congress, regulators, financial institutions and nonprofits are working to improve financial literacy education for all. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | ATTACKING AIPAC: A coalition of progressive groups launched a coalition to counter the powerful Israel lobbying group AIPAC, enacting a seven-figure campaign to protect candidates targeted by the group and ramping up lobbying efforts on the Hill. The Reject AIPAC coalition is made up of Justice Democrats, U.S. Campaign for Palestinian Rights Action, Jewish Voice for Peace Action, IfNotNow, Sunrise Movement and several other vocal activist groups. “We have watched as AIPAC has done everything it can to silence growing dissent in Congress against Netanyahu’s assault on Gaza — which has killed over 31,000 Palestinians — even as Democratic voters overwhelmingly support a ceasefire and oppose sending more blank checks to the Israeli military,” said the coalition. “We cannot let a dark money Super PAC … undermine our democracy.” AIPAC responded in a statement to NatSec Daily, saying that it won’t be “deterred in our efforts by an extremist anti-Israel fringe.” “Our sole criteria for evaluating candidates from both parties is their position on strengthening the U.S. – Israel relationship,” said AIPAC spokesperson MARSHALL WITTMANN. “We believe it is entirely consistent with progressive values to stand with the Jewish state.” ICYMI — Sanders: ‘No more money to Netanyahu’s war machine’ by our own KELLY GARRITY
| | POPE ON BLAST: Ukraine fully rejected POPE FRANCIS’ suggestion that Kyiv wave a “white flag” and head to negotiations with Moscow, saying in an internal document that his appeals are “best characterized by the saying, ‘the road to hell is paved with good intentions.’” Francis was repeating the words of a journalist, but many took it to mean that he called for Ukraine to surrender. “The strongest is the one who, in the battle between good and evil, stands on the side of good, rather than trying to put them on the par and call it ‘negotiations,’” according to a document, sent to Ukrainian government officials by Kyiv’s Center for Strategic Communication and Information Security, obtained by NatSec Daily. In the document, Kyiv denies that there is currently any possibility for negotiations, instead saying that Francis could use his authority to call on Moscow to withdraw from Ukraine. It further calls on the pope to “make an Apostolic Visit to Ukraine to support more than a million Ukrainian Catholics, more than five million Greek Catholics, all Christians, and all Ukrainians.” ICYMI — Netanyahu denies Palestinians are starving by PAUL RONZHEIMER and JOE STANLEY-SMITH
| | — The eurosceptic and anti-immigration Chega party is poised to serve as a kingmaker in Portugal after Sunday’s national elections. Chega leader ANDRÉ VENTURA, a former soccer commentator, has been compared to Trump and Brazilian president JAIR BOLSONARO. — JOE SCHEIDLER is now an adviser to the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment at the State Department. He most recently was a special adviser to the White House Office of the National Cyber Director, and is a USAID alum. — CLAIRE UMETIN is now a strategic outreach and visits manager with Google’s government affairs and public policy team, our own DANIEL LIPPMAN has learned. She previously was at the State Department’s Office of the Chief of Protocol.
| | — ARASH AZIZI, The New York Times: Change is coming to Iran, just not the change we hoped for — ANDERS FOGH RASMUSSEN, POLITICO: Politicians must not ignore security threats in space — RYAN BERG and RUBI BLEDSOE, Americas Quarterly: How Russia tries to sway Latin America on Ukraine
| | | |   | | | | | — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association, 8:30 a.m.: TechNet Emergence forum — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 9 a.m.: China and the Middle East — Brookings Institution, 9:30 a.m.: Is Europe capable of defending itself? — Henry L. Stimson Center and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute hold a virtual discussion, 9:30 a.m.: Security at arm's length: global arms trade implications for peace, security, and the economy — Senate Armed Services Committee, 9:30 a.m.: A hearing on global security challenges and U.S. strategy — House Armed Services Committee, 10 a.m.: A hearing on “U.S. Military Posture and National Security Challenges in North and South America." — House Financial Services Committee, 10 a.m.: A hearing on "Mission Critical: Restoring National Security as the Focus of Defense Production Act Reauthorization" — House Homeland Security Transportation and Maritime Security Subcommittee, 10 a.m.: A hearing on “Organizational Oversight: Examining TSA's Post-Modernization Efforts" — House Judiciary Committee, 10 a.m.: A hearing on the report of Special Counsel ROBERT HUR — Washington Post Live, 11 a.m.: Global efforts to build guardrails around artificial intelligence — Heritage Foundation, 12 p.m.: The virtual 2024 RUSSELL KIRK Lecture on "Defining Civilization Down," focusing on "the current conflict in the Middle East, the West's problematic response to that conflict, and how that response dramatizes an ongoing regression within Western politics and culture" — The House Foreign Affairs Europe Subcommittee, 2 p.m: A hearing on "Going Nuclear on Rosatom: Ending Global Dependence on Putin's Nuclear Energy Sector" — The Wilson Center's Canada Institute, 2 p.m.: Roadmap at three: progress report on a renewed U.S.-Canada partnership — House Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee, 3 p.m.A hearing on "U.S. and Adversary Hypersonic Capabilities — The House Armed Services Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee, 3:30 p.m.: A hearing on "Air Force Projection Forces Aviation Programs and Capabilities Related to the President's 2025 Budget Request" Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who is always contradictory and unclear. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who has never crossed a red line in his life.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Turn the Entire Battlefield into your Field of Vision
Today's military landscape features systems and platforms engineered for standalone operations. Embracing our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is at the forefront of defense innovation, weaving connections between defense and digital domains. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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