Monday, March 11, 2024

A Q&A with Michael Hsu

Presented by Coalition to Preserve American Jobs: Delivered daily by 8 a.m., Morning Money examines the latest news in finance politics and policy.
Mar 11, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO Morning Money

By Victoria Guida and Zachary Warmbrodt

Presented by

Coalition to Preserve American Jobs

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QUICK FIX

A year ago today, U.S. financial officials were head down in trying to stem the fallout from Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse, an effort that culminated in a decision to protect uninsured deposits at the lender and at Signature Bank, which failed the same weekend.

Now, they’re focused on the longer-term question of how to prevent that same kind of thing from happening again, ensuring that regional banks are less likely to run into trouble and more resilient in the face of distress. MM sat down with Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu this past week to talk about what’s in the works.

Top of mind right now: making sure banks are ready to use the Federal Reserve’s discount window, where they can pledge good collateral to quickly get funds to help them weather deposit outflows or meet other obligations.

That’s important, Hsu said, because while highly liquid assets can be turned into cash over a period of a couple of weeks, “if you have a couple of hours, the discount window is pretty much the only place that can do that in size, at scale, with a high degree of confidence.” (SVB saw that a dizzying $100 billion in deposits was about to leave the bank the day it was closed).

For his part, the OCC head has suggested allowing banks – in their contingency planning – to factor in the use of the discount window for only a short period, such as five days, in an effort to push firms to have responsible cash management while also making sure they use the Fed facility when they need to.

These types of liquidity questions are being examined by the banking agencies alongside a slew of other regulatory efforts – higher capital, requirements for regional banks to have long-term debt that can be bailed in as equity if they fail, guardrails around the kind of incentives that should flow from how financial executives are compensated, and guidelines around bank mergers.

Hsu says he hopes all of that can get done this year but wouldn’t speak much to more specific timing.

He also weighed in on the Basel III endgame, which would toughen capital requirements for the biggest banks.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell last week said he expected “broad and material changes” to the proposal. Hsu wouldn’t speak as definitively but said they’re taking feedback seriously and that he is open to extensive changes.

“If there's a better way to capture a particular risk, make it both risk-sensitive and consistent, and calibrated in a way that’s prudent and reasonable, and it’s better than what we proposed, we will obviously take a really close look at that and consider it,” he said. “I don't want to prejudge where all of that takes us or the timing or anything like that.”

On mergers, Hsu has begun the process of revamping how his agency reviews deals (which MM has reported on previously). Your guest host asked Hsu what to make of the provision that says mergers are “consistent with approval” if they would create an institution with less than $50 billion in assets.

He said that doesn’t mean bigger deals won’t be approved, they’re just likely to trigger more scrutiny. Some mergers are easier yeses, some are easier nos, and “a lot of these are in between,” he said.

“That line is just demarcating what is likely to be in between,” said Hsu. “To require, you know, analysis. Now, whether it’s heightened analysis or not really depends on the attributes of what’s being put on the table.”

Read more from our Q&A here.

Happy Monday — Send tips to zwarmbrodt@politico.com.

 

A message from Coalition to Preserve American Jobs:

The Employee Retention Credit (ERC) program is a lifeline for job creators and workers during times of national emergency. Congress reestablished the ERC during the pandemic to keep businesses open and employees on the payroll. Years later, over one million job creators await their claims being processed by the Internal Revenue Service and ERC backpay from the government. Enough is enough. Time for businesses to get what they are owed.

 
Driving the Week

Monday … President Joe Biden releases his fiscal 2025 budget proposal … CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero and Reps. French Hill and Bill Foster are among the speakers at the Institute of International Bankers annual Washington conference ... FDIC Vice Chair Travis Hill discusses tokenization and other issues at the Mercatus Center at 11 a.m.

Tuesday … February CPI is out at 8:30 a.m. … Hsu, NY DFS Superintendent Adrienne Harris and Fed General Counsel Mark Van Der Weide speak at the IIB conference … House Financial Services has a hearing on Defense Production Act reauthorization at 10 a.m. … Senate Banking has a hearing on housing proposals at 10 a.m. … OMB Director Shalanda Young testifies at Senate Budget at 10:15 a.m. … NEC Director Lael Brainard speaks at an Urban Institute housing policy event that starts at 1 p.m.

Wednesday … House Financial Services has a hearing on CFPB payments rules at 9 a.m. … FTC Chair Lina Khan speaks at a Carnegie Endowment event on American innovation at 12 p.m.

Thursday … February PPI is released at 8:30 a.m.

Friday .. The FDIC hosts its Consumer Research Symposium in Arlington, Virginia

 

JOIN US ON 3/21 FOR A TALK ON FINANCIAL LITERACY: Americans from all communities should be able to save, build wealth, and escape generational poverty, but doing so requires financial literacy. How can government and industry ensure access to digital financial tools to help all Americans achieve this? Join POLITICO on March 21 as we explore how Congress, regulators, financial institutions and nonprofits are working to improve financial literacy education for all. REGISTER HERE.

 
 
Driving the day

Bursting Biden’s bubble — A new FT-Michigan Ross poll finds that the president is still underwater with voters on his handling of the economy, with 59 percent disapproving. The level of disapproval has fallen by just two points over four months, despite signs that Americans are feeling increasingly happy with the economy overall.

Biden’s predicting the Fed will cut rates, per Bloomberg.

“I can’t guarantee it,” he said. “But I bet — you betcha — those rates come down more, because I bet you that that little outfit that sets interest rates, it’s going to come down.”

Markets are betting that it happens in June, after digesting Friday's jobs report. It showed that the economy added 275,000 jobs in February, higher than expected, even as the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9 percent.

“The combination of slower job growth and slower wage growth in this month’s report strikes a solid balance between an economy that was overheating and one at risk of falling into recession,” writes Aspen Economic Strategy Group policy director Luke Pardue. “If last month’s jobs report brought a fresh wave of concern that the economy remained too hot for the Federal Reserve to consider lowering interest rates, this report should ease those fears.”

The next milestone worth watching is Tuesday’s release of consumer price index data for February. According to economists surveyed by Bloomberg, it’s expected to show a gradual decline in inflation.

First in MM: A top White House economist’s next move Ernie Tedeschi, who stepped down Friday as chief economist at the CEA, is joining the Georgetown Psaros Center as a visiting fellow. He will also be affiliated with other institutions. Tedeschi previously worked at Evercore ISI and the Obama Treasury Department.

"Ernie Tedeschi brings a wealth of experience and expertise in both policymaking and the actual functioning of markets,” said David Vandivier, executive director of the Psaros Center.

More TikTok drama — Daniel Lippman reports that former Trump aide Kellyanne Conway is being paid by the Club for Growth to advocate for TikTok in Congress. The House is poised to vote this week on legislation that would force Beijing-based ByteDance to drop its ownership of the app or face a ban.

Trump SPAC update — The New York Times reports that two founders of Trump Media & Technology Group have reached a temporary legal truce with the company, likely removing an obstacle in the way of a merger that would boost former President Donald Trump's net worth by more than $3 billion.

 

A message from Coalition to Preserve American Jobs:

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On the Hill

First in MM: Hagerty questions FDIC on Signature sale — In a new letter, Sen. Bill Hagerty presses FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg on why the agency sold Signature Bank loans to a group led by Related Fund Management when there was reportedly a higher bid from Brookfield Property Group. The Tennessee Republican is also raising concerns about the administration of New York Mayor Eric Adams endorsing the Related bid. The FDIC declined to comment.

Separately, Eleanor Mueller reports that Sen. Tim Scott sent a letter to the FDIC reiterating his December request for more information on allegations of workplace misconduct at the agency. Sens. Thom Tillis, Cynthia Lummis, Kevin Cramer and Steve Daines signed the letter.

First in MM: A new SBA bill — Rep. Judy Chu and House Small Business ranking member Nydia Velázquez will announce legislation today that would make the SBA’s Community Advantage loan program permanent in law. The program, which the Biden administration has tried to expand, targets underserved entrepreneurs.

“[I]ts permanence would give lenders certainty and allow even more prospective business owners to join the small business boom, serve their communities, and thrive,” Chu said in a statement.

 

DON’T MISS POLITICO’S HEALTH CARE SUMMIT: The stakes are high as America's health care community strives to meet the evolving needs of patients and practitioners, adopt new technologies and navigate skeptical public attitudes toward science. Join POLITICO’s annual Health Care Summit on March 13 where we will discuss the future of medicine, including the latest in health tech, new drugs and brain treatments, diagnostics, health equity, workforce strains and more. REGISTER HERE.

 
 
Crypto

Crypto titans’ next target — Jasper Goodman reports that a group of super PACs backed by the crypto industry is taking aim at Senate races in Ohio and Montana that could determine control of the chamber. The super PACs aren’t saying which candidates they’ll back or attack, but Democratic Sens. Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Jon Tester of Montana, who are vocal crypto critics, could be ripe targets.

In related news, our California team has a look at what went wrong with the failed Senate bid of Rep. Katie Porter, who faced more than $10 million worth of attack ads from the pro-crypto super PAC Fairshake.

Economy

The shrinking American home — The Washington Post has a deep dive into the boom in smaller home construction, with median new-home sizes hitting a 13-year low.

“This is a trend driven by just how unaffordable housing has become, with sky-high prices, rising interest rates and so few homes for sale,” said Andy Winkler, director of housing and infrastructure at the Bipartisan Policy Center.

 

A message from Coalition to Preserve American Jobs:

The Coalition to Preserve American Jobs (CPAJ) is comprised of national associations representing employers and those supporting job creators. We are committed to safeguarding employment-based tax credits for future natural disasters and other national emergencies. That’s why we are leading the fight to ensure the IRS stands with the over one million job creators awaiting funds from COVID-19 era ERC claims. Join us and make sure that the government quickly processes these claims and makes these employers whole.
Learn more.

 
 

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