Monday, August 14, 2023

🤐Don’t Sweat this Market Selloff (Yet)

Good morning. Stocks have had two poorly-performing weeks in a row. However, the rally proceeding...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. Stocks have had two poorly-performing weeks in a row. However, the rally proceeding the drop brought markets close to their old all-time highs. A few reasons indicate that this looks like a run-of-the-mill market decline and not a full-blown bear market.

First, stocks had a strong rally in the spring. Typically, the summer months slow down a bit, and some of the biggest drops can occur in the fall. From a seasonal standpoint, we're on track. Next, stocks had such a strong rally that they're outperforming their historical average so far this year. And the recent drop still leaves the S&P 500 near its 50-day moving average, a sign that's still bullish.

With market volatility heating up, the good news for traders is that stock options should start to see bigger moves – which can help increase profitability on trades. And investors now have a pullback in stocks to buy shares at a cheaper price.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 35,281.40 +0.30%
S&P 4,464.05 -0.11%
NASDAQ 13,644.85 -0.68%
*As of market close
Markets closed mixed on Friday, with the Dow posting a slight gain.
Oil rose 0.3 percent, closing at $83.10 per barrel.
Gold dipped 0.2 percent, last going for $1,945 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies traded flat, with bitcoin at $29,361 at the stock market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
This Industry Leader Is Finally Coming Off Overbought Conditions
While stocks can trend higher or lower for long periods of time, they will occasionally take a breather. That can provide a buying opportunity for investors, particularly for great companies pulling back.

Over the long haul, buying a great company on a drop can lead to better returns than buying high and hoping to sell higher. Traders who wait for companies to come off of overbought conditions get the reward of market outperformance for their patience.

» FULL STORY

Insider Activity Report: Blackstone (BX)
Ruth Porat, a director at Blackstone (BX), recently bought 298 shares. The buy increased her holdings by 1 percent, and came to a total cost of $30,817.

This marks the first insider buy in three months, following a similarly-sized buy from the director. She has made similar buys going into the last year as well. Two company insiders sold shares in the past month, including Blackstone's chief accounting officer.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: Citigroup (C)
Major Wall Street bank Citigroup (C) has lost nearly 20 percent over the past year. One trader sees the bank bucking its downtrend and moving higher in the months ahead.

That's based on the December $44 calls. With 122 days until expiration, 5,731 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 229, for a 25-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the calls paid $3.10 to make the bullish bet.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
Producer Prices Rise in July

The International Energy Agency sees oil prices trending higher in the months ahead, following a 20 percent move higher since June. Prices will likely continue to rise due to reduced output from OPEC countries. The OPEC cartel expects to keep their production targets through the end of 2024.
IEA Sees Oil Prices Trending Higher

Country Garden, one of the largest developers in China, appears to be in a collapse, which may reflect the country's wider problems with an overinflated real estate market. Chinese media reports that the company has missed payments on two bonds denominated in U.S. dollars. Several bonds issued by the company denominated in yuan have also been delisted.
Investors Shift to Active ETFs

Last year's bear market saw investors largely stick with index ETFs, simply tracking overall prices without engaging in any trading or market timing. There's been a slight shift in capital flows to active ETFs, which do look to trade the market, so far this year. That trend may continue, as some active ETFs will likely outperform the market in the short-term.
Workers Report Higher Productivity on a 4-Day Week

About four out of five workers would find a 4-day workweek more productive than a 5-day one. That is particularly true for workers in areas such as healthcare and teaching, which report above-average levels of worker burnout. Bosses testing out a 4-day workweek report improved performance and productivity, as well as lower turnover and higher revenues.
SEC to Appeal Ripple Ruling

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will appeal a court ruling made against the agency last month. The SEC had originally charged two ripple executives with raising over $1.3 billion with an unregistered offering of digital asset securities, but the court has ruled that Ripple itself is not a security.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
NWS 4.804%
NWSA 4.653%
AXON 3.608%
VFC 3.479%
OXY 3.405%
BOTTOM
JD 5.365%
BBWI 5.131%
APTV 4.923%
TER 4.506%
LRCX 4.382%

Quote of the Day
Markets are focused on whether or not inflation is falling fast enough to allow the Fed to stop hiking rates. It's been decelerating, but it's still too high. And the Fed is at a bit of a crossroads.
- Bill Merz, head of capital markets research at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, on the market's recent pullback, which may lead to some sideways moves over the next few months as inflation remains higher than the Fed's target.

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