Monday, May 8, 2023

👀Increasingly Mixed Signals Point to a Violently Sideways Market

Good morning. The economy continues to send mixed signals. Amid a banking crisis, the jobs market...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. The economy continues to send mixed signals. Amid a banking crisis, the jobs market shows its ongoing resilience, with an unexpectedly large gain of 253,000 over the past month. As long as workers keep their jobs, consumer spending should hold up strong.

These mixed signals likely point to a more volatile – but overall sideways – market through the summer months. Strong corporate earnings, particularly in the big tech names, gave the overall market a boost in the past few weeks. But the ongoing challenges among smaller banks could lead to some hefty down days, as investors weigh the risk of bank failures threatening the overall economy.

For now, traders can look for more market volatility in the weeks and months ahead. And use big up days to build hedge positions. On a big down day, traders can bet on a reversal and go long.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 33,674.38 +1.65%
S&P 4,136.25 +1.85%
NASDAQ 12,235.41 +2.25%
*As of market close
Stocks jumped higher on Friday, as regional bank stocks soared.
Oil rallied 4.2 percent, closing at $71.41 per barrel.
Gold dropped 1.4 percent, ending the day at $2,026 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies jumped higher, with Bitcoin at $29,559 at the stock market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
Cash Flow Remains King: Stick With One of the Greatest Investments of All Time
While earnings are the most important part of earnings season, they're simply a yardstick that considers different accounting measures across different sectors. A different measure, cash flow, can give a sense as to a company's ability to start and grow a dividend, buy back shares, or otherwise reward shareholders.

That cash flow may not always pass down to earnings. But for a poor investment, it's often true that earnings will look higher than cash flow indicates.

» FULL STORY

Insider Trading Report: Crown Castle Inc (CCI)
Kevin Stephens, a director at Crown Castle Inc (CCI), recently added 1,000 shares. The buy increased his holdings by 7 percent, and came to a total cost of $117,996.

The director was also the most recent buyer of shares, with a 2,000 share pickup in October 2022 that cost $247,000. One other director has been a buyer in the past year. Two company insiders were sizeable sellers of shares in April.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: Gilead Sciences (GILD)
Biotech company Gilead Sciences (GILD) has had a strong year, with shares up 30 percent. However, shares have started to trend lower in recent sessions, and one trader sees a further drop ahead.

That's based on the November $60 puts. With 193 days until expiration, 3,922 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 100, for a 39-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the puts paid $1.09 to make the bearish bet.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
Unemployment Drops to 3.4 Percent

The U.S. economy added 253,000 jobs in April, a surprise jump following a slowdown in March. The move took the unemployment rate down to just 3.4 percent, tying with a historic low set in 1969 and lower than the job market right before the start of the pandemic.
Traffic Surges at All-You-Can-Eat Restaurants

Occupancy and health concerns led to a contraction in all-you-can-eat restaurants, with several filing for bankruptcy in 2021. However, foot traffic has since more than doubled over the past two years, as such restaurants offer a way to fight against rising food prices, with restaurant prices up about 8.5 percent over the past year.
Used Car Prices Drop for the First Time In 2023

Wholesale used vehicle prices dropped 3 percent between March and April. That's the first drop in used cars so far this year, and is a leading indicator for retail prices. Overall, prices are still up 5.2 percent from December, reflecting strong car demand even as interest rates for financing vehicles has continued to rise.
iPhone Sales Boost Apple Shares

Consumer tech giant Apple (AAPL) saw stronger-than-expected iPhone sales, which helped boost the company's bottom line. The last of the major tech companies to report, Apple also announced a dividend increase and $90 billion share buyback.
Warner Bros. Discovery Sees Profitable Streaming Business this Year

Media company Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) announced that its streaming business will turn a profit this year. The company had previously expected the company to breakeven in 2024 and turn a profit in 2025. The company added 1.6 million subscribers across its platforms in the first quarter.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
ZION  19.443%
CMA  16.982%
LYV 15.611%
KEY 10.806%
TFC 9.805%
BOTTOM
BIO 16.774%
EPAM 10.943%
MPWR 9.681%
CTLT 3.047%
MTD 3.034%

Quote of the Day
I think it's going to take care of the Fed's job. ... Regional lenders are going to have to constrain capital. I don't think that money is going to flowing through the system nearly as easily the back half of this year and that indirectly is going to cool down the economy, which is ultimately going to do the Feds job by bringing [down] inflation. So, I do not think that the Fed will have to raise rates any further the rest of this year...
- Keith Apton, managing director at UBS Wealth Management, on how bank worries and credit constriction will likely finish off the job of bringing down inflation that first started with rising interest rates.

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