Monday, May 8, 2023

Biden’s call with Mexico’s president is about more than immigration

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May 08, 2023 View in browser
 
POLITICO Nightly logo

By Carmen Paun

Presented by Shut Down SHEIN

President Joe Biden and President of Mexico Andrés Manuel López Obrador shake hands during a welcome ceremony as part of the 2023 North American Leaders' Summit on Jan. 9, 2023, in Mexico City.

President Joe Biden and President of Mexico Andrés Manuel López Obrador shake hands during a welcome ceremony as part of the 2023 North American Leaders' Summit on Jan. 9, 2023, in Mexico City. | Hector Vivas/Getty Images

DIFFICULT CONVERSATIONS — When President Joe Biden speaks to his Mexican counterpart Andrés Manuel López Obrador Tuesday, just days before the Title 42 border restrictions lift, the two North American leaders will talk about migration, fentanyl trafficking and economic cooperation.

But López Obrador might also bring up a subject that hasn’t received as much attention as the others. Last week, he sent a letter to Biden asking him to stop the U.S. Agency for International Development from financing civil society groups that the Mexican president says are hostile to his government. López Obrador also complained about it to Biden’s Homeland Security Advisor Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall, whom he met in Mexico City on May 2. He sees the financing as a proof of interventionism in Mexican affairs, an “arrogant and offensive move,” he told reporters last Wednesday.

The USAID complaint is part of a long line of complaints from Mexico’s firebrand president against U.S. interventionism. He has often targeted the Drug Enforcement Administration, the U.S. State Department or Republican lawmakers who have introduced legislation threatening to bomb Mexican drug cartels.

With Mexico’s cooperation crucial to Biden’s agenda to stem the flow of migrants and the deadly synthetic drug fentanyl across the southern border, the White House cannot afford to shrug off the Mexican president’s complaints.

“If the U.S. dismissed him wholeheartedly, it’s going to make these conversations — and again some of these are happening behind closed doors — a hell of a lot more difficult to be had,” said Gladys McCormick, the Jay and Debe Moskowitz Endowed Chair on Mexico-U.S. Relations at Syracuse University in New York, referring to immigration talks between the two nations as Title 42 lifts this week.

For now, López Obrador has committed to continue accepting back migrants from the U.S. on humanitarian grounds. And while denying that fentanyl is produced in his country, he sent some of his top officials to the White House last month to discuss how to work together to disrupt the supply chain of the synthetic opioid which has become the top killer of young adults in the United States.

But he made it clear in a press conference last month that cooperation with the U.S. will be on his terms — and he will not accept being dictated what to do.

And his disparaging of U.S. institutions, while mostly for domestic consumption, does end up affecting the operations of those organizations in Mexico, which is another reason why the Biden administration shouldn’t ignore it, McCormick said.

López Obrador still has high approval ratings — around 60 percent in March — and his supporters accept the validity of his attacks, McCormick said.

“He has really diminished the capacity of the DEA in Mexico, in dramatic ways,” she said.

USAID’s people on the ground could face backlash and lose collaborators in Mexico, McCormick said.

An USAID spokesperson highlighted the “deep partnership” between the U.S. and Mexico in a comment to POLITICO, without saying if López Obrador’s complaint will have any impact on its funding decisions.

But ultimately, the White House will have to give some concessions to the Mexican president.

“Some of those conversations have to be had in terms of sort of suggesting to him and his representatives that they are in fact taking it seriously because you don’t want to make [López Obrador] look bad,” McCormick said.

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at cpaun@politico.com or on Twitter at @carmenpaun.

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— One of the nation’s most powerful Democratic bosses is stepping aside: George Norcross spent decades building one of the most effective and influential political machines in the nation. Now the New Jersey Democrat says he’s all but giving up on politics. Norcross, a 67-year-old insurance executive, never held elected office yet wielded power rivaling governors. He stacked the state Legislature with allies, cut deals that decided control of government and backed multiple members of Congress, including his brother. But his standing changed after the 2021 election defeat of state Senate President Steve Sweeney, a childhood friend toppled by a virtually unknown MAGA truck driver. Combined with the losses of several state Assembly candidates backed by Norcross’ South Jersey machine, the results were stunning — a “catastrophic” blow from which his operation has not recovered.

 

GET READY FOR GLOBAL TECH DAY: Join POLITICO Live as we launch our first Global Tech Day alongside London Tech Week on Thursday, June 15. Register now for continuing updates and to be a part of this momentous and program-packed day! From the blockchain, to AI, and autonomous vehicles, technology is changing how power is exercised around the world, so who will write the rules? REGSITER HERE.

 
 
Nightly Road to 2024

BRITTLE BANKERS — Wall Street is firmly in the Never Trump camp, write POLITICO’s Sam Sutton and Ben White. Finding a Republican who can make “never” happen is another question.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis had been seen as the top pick to lock down the support of financial titans who have already pumped millions into his state campaigns. But as he stumbles through gaffes over everything from his personal demeanor and stance on Ukraine to his snacking habits, Wall Street donors are keeping the door open to his competitors, according to more than a dozen bankers, attorneys and political consultants interviewed for this story.

It was “‘wait and see,’ and this is why,” said an adviser to one top GOP donor in New York. “We’re not the only ones who are happy with our decision to wait and see.”

 

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AROUND THE WORLD

A checkpoint of a Russia peacekeeping force on a road towards the separatist region of Nagorno-Karabakh in Armenia.

A checkpoint of a Russia peacekeeping force on a road towards the separatist region of Nagorno-Karabakh in Armenia. | Vahram Baghdasaryan/PHOTOLURE via AP Photo

PLOTTING PEACE — Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders are set to hold talks in Brussels this weekend as speculation grows that the two sides could sign a peace agreement after decades of violent conflict, writes Gabriel Gavin.

Azerbaijan recently established a checkpoint that cuts off and restricts access through the so-called Lachin Corridor, the one road connecting Armenia to the contested region.

European Council President Charles Michel will host Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, the Financial Times reported today, citing diplomatic sources.

Two EU officials confirmed to POLITICO that the talks are planned for May 13-14, but the agenda is yet to be formally outlined. Both the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministries declined to comment on the news.

“We see this as a continuation of efforts for normalization of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations, a resumption of the trilateral meetings in the Brussels format and a follow-up to important and positive peace talks held in Washington last week,” one European Commission official said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive issue.

Foreign ministers from the two former Soviet republics met earlier this month for negotiations brokered by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Calls for a lasting peace agreement have grown after a series of recent violent clashes along the shared border, just two and a half years after a bloody war over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh killed thousands of Armenian and Azerbaijani soldiers.

 

DON’T MISS THE POLITICO ENERGY SUMMIT: A new world energy order is emerging and America’s place in it is at a critical juncture. Join POLITICO on Thursday, May 18 for our first-ever energy summit to explore how the U.S. is positioning itself in a complicated energy future. We’ll explore progress on infrastructure and climate funding dedicated to building a renewable energy economy, Biden’s environmental justice proposals, and so much more. REGISTER HERE.

 
 
Nightly Number

More than 100,000

The number of official public comments made on the Biden administration’s new proposal to make categorical transgender sports bans illegal, but allow for smaller scale bans acknowledging competition levels, fairness and a school’s interest in preventing injuries, especially in contact sports. Advocates for transgender students say the rule does not go far enough to promote full inclusion of trans women and girls, while advocates on the other side say the rule still undermines fairness in women’s sports.

RADAR SWEEP

MYSTERY FOR $1000, ALEX — A group of devotees of the television show Jeopardy! catalog every appearance, clue, prize pot and anecdote shared going back to 1984, when Alex Trebek began hosting. But until recently, five episodes from the show in 1986 — a run of victories by a contestant named Barbara Lowe Vollick — had mysteriously vanished; not even Jeopardy!’s biggest fans could find them. Read the story about the lost and now found episodes, and hear from Vollick herself on the victories and why it’s taken almost 40 years for her to tell her story. Claire McNear writes for The Ringer.

Parting Image

On this date in 1967: Former heavyweight champ Muhammad Ali smiles with his attorney Hayden Covington after Ali pleaded

On this date in 1967: Former heavyweight champ Muhammad Ali smiles with his attorney Hayden Covington after Ali pleaded "not guilty" on a charge of refusing to be drafted into the armed forces. He was ultimately convicted of draft evasion and was handed the maximum sentence: a fine of $10,000 and a prison term of five years. He stayed out of prison while he case was appealed, and the decision was ultimately overturned at the Supreme Court in 1971. | Ed Kolenovsky/AP Photo

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