Climate change is making it more dangerous — and much more expensive — to live on the subtropical islands at the southern tip of Florida. Daniel Cusick writes that extreme heat, tidal flooding and severe hurricanes are driving out longtime residents of the Florida Keys and driving up the cost of basic needs: rent, food, water, power and gasoline. That has meant the departure of more low- and middle-income residents, many of whom work the service and labor jobs undergirding the Keys’ multibillion-dollar tourism industry. Now people with greater wealth and more mobility are moving in, further increasing housing prices. Meanwhile, the climate clock is ticking as sea levels rise. This is all happening in a state with a governor who has described himself as “not a global warming person.” Gov. Ron DeSantis, a potential Republican presidential nominee, once prefaced resilience plans for sea-level rise with assurances that Florida was just a “flood-prone state.” Necessary retreat? The population of Big Pine Key dropped 15 percent after Hurricane Irma in 2017. The area is now home to about 4,800 people. While Big Pine Key is rebuilding, real estate values have nearly doubled since Irma. Some affordable housing is included in efforts to rebuild properties swept away. But it’s not cheap. After Irma, $13 million in federal funds paid for 31 new elevated homes on Big Pine Key. That’s a hefty $419,000 per home, which doesn’t include the cost of insurance and maintenance. It’s only a matter of time until living on the Keys becomes untenable even for the wealthiest residents. A recent study by the Nature Conservancy in Florida, which has monitored sea-level rise on Big Pine Key since 2007, looked at best- and worst-case scenarios for the island. Under the best-case scenario, sea levels would rise by 7 inches by century’s end. Big Pine Key would lose 1,840 acres to the ocean, with property losses as high as $40 million. Under the worst-case scenario, sea levels would rise 4.6 feet, eating away 96 percent of the key, with property losses of $1.6 billion. Big Pine Key’s highest ground would effectively become two small, isolated islands.
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