| | | | |  | | By Gary Fineout | Hello and welcome to Thursday. When all's well — This is sort of an October surprise even though it's unlikely to change the apparent trajectory of this year's election. Driving — Former President Donald Trump — now a Florida man — jolted the political world of his adopted home state by announcing Wednesday that he will do a campaign rally in Miami just two days before Election Day. Missing — Trump made it clear in his announcement that he's doing the rally to show his support for Sen. Marco Rubio, who Trump has already endorsed. So who wasn't mentioned in the announcement? Gov. Ron DeSantis. An adviser to the former president told POLITICO that DeSantis was not attending. Each and every one — Let's recall that Trump — whose endorsement of DeSantis in 2018, ahead of that year's Republican primary, was a key reason he won — has not endorsed the governor for reelection because DeSantis hasn't asked for one. More importantly, DeSantis keeps signaling a run for president in 2024 (see Monday night's debate with Charlie Crist) even though Trump himself continues to strongly suggest he will run again. Rollercoaster — The decision by Trump to hold the rally just ahead of the election — and five days after President Joe Biden holds a get-out-the-vote rally in Miami Gardens — took DeSantis world by surprise. One person who is influential in DeSantis circles told POLITICO that it was "an elbow to Ron's throat" and blamed Trump's advisers. A Trump adviser, however, contended it was just one of a series of stops the former president was making for GOP Senate candidates. Frost and fire — The timing of Trump's announcement also comes a few days after Trump and DeSantis had a bit of a dust-up over… the Colorado Senate race. DeSantis decided to endorse and record a robocall for Joe O'Dea, who is trying to knock off Sen. Michael Bennet. DeSantis decided to do this even though Trump had already trashed O'Dea for saying he would "actively" campaign against the former president if he ran again. Trump called DeSantis' endorsement a "big mistake." I don't want to talk about it — There has always been speculation that a Trump-DeSantis confrontation was inevitable, while others have tried to brush off any hint of conflict as some sort of media invention. This week, however, may have marked the moment when what was happening behind the scenes burst into plain view. — WHERE'S RON? — Nothing official announced for Gov. DeSantis. Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget for Playbook? Get in touch: gfineout@politico.com
| | | | NEW AND IMPROVED POLITICO APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. With a fresh look and improved features, the sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don't miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. Already a POLITICO app user? Upgrade today! DOWNLOAD FOR iOS – DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID . | | | | | |  | CAMPAIGN MODE | | 'THIS IS BIG' — Trump to rally in Florida with Rubio — but not DeSantis , by POLITICO's Matt Dixon and Gary Fineout: Former President Donald Trump is coming to Miami just two days before Election Day. But one Republican won't be there — Gov. Ron DeSantis. Not yet anyway. Trump on Wednesday said he'll hold a rally with Sen. Marco Rubio on Nov. 6. DeSantis was left off the announcement and an adviser to the former president said the Florida governor is not attending. The apparent snub angered some people within DeSantis' orbit, who complained that the Florida governor's team was not informed of the rally prior to Trump announcing it. | 
Former President Donald Trump speaks at a rally on Oct. 22, 2022, in Robstown, Texas. | Nick Wagner/AP Photo |
'IT'S OVER. AND IT'S GOING TO BE UGLY' — Florida Democrats are facing brutal midterms. 2024 could be worse , by POLITICO's Matt Dixon and Gary Fineout: Florida Democrats are bracing for a very bad night on Nov. 8. Less than two weeks before the election, Democrats are signaling that key races are slipping away from them. They point to ominous signs and missed opportunities, including the party's message on abortion rights and gun control that isn't resonating and a lack of coordination between the campaigns of Rep. Val Demings, who is vying to unseat Sen. Marco Rubio, and Charlie Crist, who is challenging Gov. Ron DeSantis.
Abandoned — Most worrisome for Democrats, national organizations and donors have all but abandoned their candidates — setting off fears that Florida is no longer viewed as competitive. That would have dire implications for the next presidential election. "If Democrats follow this building national narrative and decide not to compete in Florida in 2024, it will be one of the most short-sighted decisions of the last 30 years," said Greg Goddard, a veteran Florida Democratic fundraiser. RED WAVE COMING? — " How Republicans' ground operation with Hispanics could deliver Miami-Dade for DeSantis ," by Miami Herald's Bianca Padró Ocasio and Ana Ceballos: "This election, there is mounting evidence that Republicans' ground operation — specifically in Hispanic communities — could help Gov. Ron DeSantis become the first Republican governor to win the county since Jeb Bush, who spoke Spanish, owned a Coral Gables condo and was married to a Latina wife, did it in 2002. 'It's not only possible, but it's really on track right now,' said Devon Murphy-Anderson, the co-founder of the Democratic-leaning voter outreach organization, Mi Vecino, which operates year-round in five counties in Florida and conducts polling. VOTES ARE PILING UP — Nearly 1.67 million people have voted ahead of the Nov. 8 election, according to the latest information on the state Division of Elections website. More than 1.44 million people have voted by mail so far. Of those, 613,531 have come from Democrats and 545,859 have come from registered Republicans. Overall, there are more than 2.82 million mail ballots that have been requested but not yet returned. Of those, nearly 1.25 million are held by Democrats and more than 865,000 are with Republicans. More than 228,000 have also voted early this week. That includes 119,513 Republicans and 71,546 Democrats. CAMPAIGN ROUNDUP — Crist is out with a new 15-second political ad called "Getting By" that targets DeSantis over rising costs in Florida, including taking aim at his decision to sign a bill that allowed the collection of online sales taxes. The bill also criticizes DeSantis over rising property insurance costs. … The Crist campaign said that it has raised more than $500,000 since Monday's debate between the Democratic nominee for governor and DeSantis. That included over $225,000 in the campaign's second-best digital fundraising day. The donations came from nearly 12,000 donors, many of whom were giving for the first time. … The Florida Chamber of Commerce released a poll on Wednesday that had DeSantis with a double-digit lead over Crist: 53 percent to 42 percent. The poll done by Cherry Communications was conducted over a 10-day period in October and has a margin of error of plus/minus 4 percent. That same poll found that all three Republican candidates for Cabinet positions had double-digit leads. The economy, inflation and gas prices were among the top issues cited by likely voters. … Rep. Val Demings on Thursday will join the "Protect our Care" bus tour in Tampa along with Rep. Kathy Castor to discuss Sen. Marco Rubio's record on health care … The Florida Farm Bureau announced on Wednesday that it was endorsing Rubio for reelection. Chief Executive Officers of Management Companies , representing more than 18,000 licensed professional community managers, announced that it is endorsing more than 50 state House and Senate candidates. While the group is supporting some Democrats, most of the candidates it's backing are Republicans, including GOP challengers in hotly contested state Senate seats in north Florida, Miami and the Tampa area. THE TIMES WE LIVE IN — " Florida election officials grapple with misinformation, myths ," by News Service of Florida's Dara Kam: "County supervisors of elections are combating a steady drumbeat of myths about election fraud from an increasingly wary public. 'Disinformation, or stuff people are just getting wrong and putting out there as gospel, misinformation, which is information they're purposely disseminating to confuse people, and malinformation, which has a kernel of truth but also is specifically skewed to mislead people. We see that as our biggest challenge, is how do we find the people we need to reach,' Okaloosa County Supervisor of Elections Paul Lux told The News Service of Florida." NEW THIS CYCLE — " GOP again deploys task force to challenge Orange ballots ," by Orlando Sentinel's Steven Lemongello: "But the law also requires supervisors to give 'reasonable access' to partisan and other outside observers to "review or inspect ballot materials," including mail-in envelopes and signatures. That has had the greatest effect. In Central Florida, Orange County Republicans created an Elections Integrity Task Force to dispute mail-in ballots before they're opened, leading to dozens of such challenges during the August primary. The task force was back for the general election this week. It challenged 35 signatures on envelopes as not matching those on file for voters." — " With 'a lot at stake' in election, congresswoman scrutinizes Postal Service over mail-in ballots ," by South Florida Sun-Sentinel's Lisa J. Huriash — " Miami Republican voters agree media disinformation is a problem but disagree on sources ," by Miami Herald's Grethel Aguila — " Prosecutors in 'ghost' candidate case resist political consultant's removal request ," by Orlando Sentinel's Jeff Weiner — "' All hands on deck': Top Senate Dems, Bakari Sellers, hit the trail for Loranne Ausley ," by Florida Politics' Renzo Downey — " Republicans have focused on education. Why is Miami-Dade GOP voting 'No' to hike teacher pay ?" by Miami Herald's Sommer Brugal
| | MIGRANTS IN MASSACHUSETTS | | APPEAL COMING — DeSantis plans to challenge a ruling that gave the governor's office 20 days to hand over records connected to the flights of migrants from Texas to Martha's Vineyard. Circuit Judge J. Lee Marsh found that the governor's office has not complied with the state's public records laws in a lawsuit brought by the Florida Center for Government Accountability. "We disagree with the court's ruling and intend to appeal," said Bryan Griffin, a spokesman for DeSantis said in an email. "This records request came amid a historically devastating hurricane and the Executive Office of the Governor was focused on supporting the needs and recovery of Floridians from Hurricane Ian. Regardless, we have already produced a significant number of documents and, as we have already stated, continue to endeavor to do so in a timely manner." Griffin added: "If even a fraction of the amount of effort spent by the media and critics to find something to take issue with regarding our relocation program was directed towards securing our southern border, we might actually be able to get the Biden Administration to do something about it." Even though the governor's office says it will appeal the ruling, the administration on Wednesday released unredacted waivers signed by those who flew on the planes as well as unredacted photos. Marsh had stated in his verbal ruling that the governor's office had no reason to keep that information confidential.
| | | | DON'T MISS POLITICO'S 2nd ANNUAL DEFENSE SUMMIT ON 11/16: The United States is facing a defining moment in the future of its defense, national security and democratic ideals. The current conflicts and developments around the world are pushing Washington to reshape its defense strategy and how it cooperates with allies. Join POLITICO for our second annual defense summit, "At a Crossroads: America's Defense Strategy" on November 16 in person at the Schuyler DC or join online to hear keynote interviews and panels discussing the road ahead for America's national security. REGISTER HERE . | | | | | | | TRUMPLANDIA AND THE SWAMP | | FOR YOUR RADAR — Judge to consider unsealing Trump grand jury filings , by POLITICO's Kyle Cheney and Josh Gerstein: A federal judge is considering whether to unseal secret court documents detailing Donald Trump's effort to prevent former aides from providing testimony to a grand jury investigating efforts to subvert the 2020 election. Chief U.S. District Court Judge Beryl Howell on Wednesday asked the Justice Department to weigh in on unsealing requests made by two media organizations: POLITICO on Oct. 18, and the New York Times on Oct. 21. Howell's ask comes as Trump has been quietly waging — and losing — a court battle in recent weeks to prevent former aides from testifying to the grand jury. — Trump team receives subpoena from Jan. 6 committee , by POLITICO's Kyle Cheney and Erin Banco
| | ...HURRICANE HOLE... | | SIGNIFICANT — " Florida's hurricane catastrophe fund facing $10 billion in losses because of Ian ," by News Service of Florida's Jim Saunders: "The Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund, a state program that provides critical backup coverage to property insurers, is estimated to have $10 billion in losses from Hurricane Ian, officials said Wednesday. The program commonly known as the 'Cat Fund' will be able to handle Ian's financial hit, though it will go into the 2023 hurricane season with reduced amounts of cash. 'We feel very confident that we can cover our obligations from Ian because going into this year we had a very healthy cash balance,' Gina Wilson, the fund's chief operating officer, said during a meeting of the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund Advisory Council." | 
Shrimp boats lie grounded atop what was a mobile home park, following the passage of Hurricane Ian, on San Carlos Island in Fort Myers Beach, Fla., Friday, Oct. 7, 2022. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell) | AP |
'FINALLY' — " FEMA to provide trailers, manufactured homes for displaced Hurricane Ian survivors ," by Fort Myers News-Press' Kate Cimini and Laura Layden: "Southwest Florida leaders breathed a sigh of relief Wednesday as the federal government announced it would provide trailers for displaced Hurricane Ian survivors in Lee and Collier counties, amidst a shortage of hotel rooms and other options. 'Finally,' said Collier County Commission Chairman Bill McDaniel. But, he noted, 'We still don't know when these trailers are coming.'"
— " Citrus leaders look to weather Ian ," by News Service of Florida's Jim Turner — " FEMA, Gov. DeSantis reach deal to speed up debris removal in areas hard-hit by Ian ," by Florida Politics' Gray Rohrer | | PENINSULA AND BEYOND | | ADDED INFO — " GOP canvasser didn't say brutal beating was political until after Rubio tweet, cops say ," by Miami Herald's Nicholas Nehamas, Sarah Blaskey, Verónica Egui Brito and David Ovalle: "When Hialeah police re-interviewed the canvasser, Christopher Monzon, hours after the [Sen. Marco] Rubio tweet, he told them he did believe politics played a role in his beating. In a sworn statement Monday afternoon, Monzon — who was canvassing for the Republican Party of Florida and has long-standing ties to the white supremacist movement — said one of his attackers told him that 'that he could not pass through because he was a Republican,' a police report released late Tuesday shows. 'He didn't mention it in the first interview. He did in the second,' Hialeah Police Department Sgt. José Torres told the Miami Herald. "We're not going to say that the whole entire situation was politically motivated, but the guy was wearing a Marco Rubio shirt." UNITY MOMENT — " Jacksonville mayor candidates united in support of keeping Georgia-Florida football game ," by Florida Times-Union Garry Smits: "In the race for Mayor of Jacksonville to replace the term-limited Lenny Curry, preserving the city's role as host for the Gators and the Bulldogs is an issue that all five major candidates are in agreement. The Times-Union obtained statements or spoke with city councilwoman LeAnna Cumber, Jax Chamber CEO Daniel Davis, former First Coast news anchor Donna Deegan, city councilman Al Ferraro and Florida State Senator Audrey Gibson. They not only supported keeping the game in Jacksonville but did so with enthusiasm." — " Rapper Ye, aka Kanye West, stiffed owner of Miami studio after demanding major overhaul, lawsuit claims ," by South Florida Sun-Sentinel's Ron Hurtibise — " Where's the beef? Thefts of Midwestern semitrailers filled with meat lead to Florida ," by The Associated Press — " Report: Nearly one in three medical malpractice claims closed in 2021 involved patients who died ," by Florida Politics' Christine Jordan Sexton
| | ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN | | — " Monkey Jungle's big money trouble: Attraction sues for federal aid that could be lifeline ," by Miami Herald's Natalia Galicza: "Now, Monkey Jungle is struggling to keep the gates open. Last year, it reopened at an extremely limited capacity, offering small guided tours that include hands-on mingling with monkeys at a ticket price of $150 per person. But its long-term future may depend on an unusual legal argument — that the monkeys should be classified as live performers, which would qualify it for a federal COVID relief grant designed to keep entertainment venues afloat. The Small Business Administration has rejected Monkey Jungle's application for a $653,000 grant. In August, [Sharon] DuMond filed a federal lawsuit seeking to reverse that decision." BIRTHDAYS: Matt Drudge … Bryan Glazer, co-chairman of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers... ex-state legislator and former Palm Beach County Supervisor of Elections Susan Bucher …. Rabbi Gary Glickstein | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
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