Here are the races the pros are watching

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Oct 27, 2022 View in browser   By David Siders Republican candidate for Senate Adam Laxalt in Reno, Nevada. | Trevor Bexon/Getty Images INSIDER INTEL —  It may take a while to know on Election Day — or after — what the balance of power will be in Washington. But you may not have to see the entire election unfold to draw some conclusions about how the evening will go, and what it will mean for the future of both political parties. Just one race might tell you a lot, so long as it's the right one. So Nightly reached out to some of the smartest and most thoughtful observers of politics we know to ask a question: If they had to pick one race anywhere in the country, which would they say is the most important or most revealing, and why? Below are their responses, edited for clarity. Molly Murphy, Democratic pollster and president of Impact Research, the firm that was Joe Biden's lead pollster in the 2020 election: If I'm thinking about this from an election night standpoint, meaning what races will I be looking at to forecast out how good/bad the night is going to go, I'd say the New Hampshire Senate race . All the public polls show Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan in good shape and her opponent does not have much funding or outside group spending. Seeing how close Hassan is to Biden's 2020 victory margin or not will be an important indicator of just how bad the environment might be. In the House, I'd say Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger's House race in Virginia's 7th District. That race is getting litigated on abortion on the Republican Yesli Vega side and Spanberger is executing a very strong case for bipartisanship and economic priorities, but it is a tough seat. How that comes in, I think, tells us a lot about how the other competitive House races will go. Jim McLaughlin, veteran Republican pollster: New York's 17th District House race between Republican Michael Lawler and Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. When you are DCCC chair, you want a cakewalk, because your job is to help other Democrats across the country with money and resources. Now Maloney and the Democrat outside groups are spending millions to try and save Maloney. This is a district Biden won by over 10 percent and Democrats outnumber Republicans by double digits. … If Mike Lawler wins, chances are it's going to be a really long night for Democrats. Jerry Brown, former Democratic governor of California and presidential candidate: I'm watching the Ohio Senate race, which will be an important indicator of Democratic strength across America. Mike Madrid, Republican strategist who was a co-founder of the anti-Trump Lincoln Project: The Adam Laxalt-Catherine Cortez Masto Nevada Senate race... The reason why is because the Latino break in that race will be the most indicative of Mexican American splits that will define viability for Republicans and Democrats for, I would argue, probably a generation or 10 years. The potential is to see whether Mexican Americans are more like Texans or more like Californians, and that's going to have huge ramifications on our politics. … If Laxalt wins, it's going to be a fucking earthquake in the Democratic Party. Steve Stivers, former congressman from Ohio and former chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee: In the House, I'm focused on Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney's reelection in New York to determine how big the House wave is. It will show whether it's a 10-vote or 30-vote swing in the House. And in the Senate, I'm focused on the Pennsylvania Senate race, which is a race between two flawed candidates in a Democrat-leaning state that will determine whether just the House flips or the House and Senate flip. That will tell you about the entire dynamic in D.C. for the next 2 years. Matt Bennett, co-founder of the center-left group Third Way: Win or lose, Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan is putting on an absolute clinic in the Ohio Senate election , and his race should serve as a lesson for all Democrats running anywhere outside of deep blue places. He has rejected the notion that Democrats should give up on non-college voters, and he has shown how to win them back. That means both taking on your own party on some issues and selling your party's successes by highlighting their impact on real people. Tim Pawlenty, former Republican governor of Minnesota and presidential candidate: The race for Minnesota attorney general. In a state that historically favors Democrats, the Republican candidate has tied the race by making it a referendum on crime and related chaos. The potency of that issue will be dramatically confirmed if Republican Jim Schultz wins. Joseph Geevarghese, executive director of the Bernie Sanders-aligned group Our Revolution: One race that I think is fascinating on a lot of different levels is Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison's reelection… Nationally, you've got Republicans running on this tough-on-crime narrative, saying Democrats are the party of defund the police. Keith is really at the epicenter of that, and if he is successfully able to fend off that attack … I think it'll be incredibly telling. It'll give us a pathway to talk about criminal justice reform in a way that engages voters and not just sloganeering. Jeff Kaufmann, chair of the Iowa Republican Party: Outside of Iowa, I would highlight the Nevada Senate race. This was a trending purple state with a large Latino population. A conservative Republican versus a Democrat faking moderation and really a Biden lefty. I think the tightness of this race shows the rejection of Biden and the reassessment of the Latino vote in the country. Also, one of the best GOP chairs in the country runs that party. Mark Longabaugh, a progressive ad maker who worked on Sanders' 2016 campaign: The Utah Senate race is fascinating, and few are paying attention compared to coverage of the Senate battleground states. Incumbent Republican Sen. Mike Lee is facing Evan McMullin, a former Republican running as an independent. The race is a proxy battle between the Trump and moderate (Romney) wings of the Republican Party. Lee, an ardent Trump supporter, was involved in the effort to overturn the 2020 election. … McMullin has said if elected he will not caucus with either party. If he wins, and the Senate remains closely divided, he will have tremendous leverage. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight's author at dsiders@politico.com or on Twitter at @davidsiders .   NEW AND IMPROVED POLITICO APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. With a fresh look and improved features, the sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don't miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. Already a POLITICO app user? Upgrade today! DOWNLOAD FOR iOS  – DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID .     Poll Watcher 14 percentage points The lead that Democrats have over Republicans in the generic congressional ballot among Hispanic likely voters, 50 percent to 36 percent, according to a new poll from Americano Media . That gap is down significantly from 2020, when it stood at 30 percent, and 2018, when Democrats had a 40 percent lead over Republicans among Hispanic voters. What'd I Miss? Elon Musk. | AP Photo/Susan Walsh, File — Musk says he won't let Twitter become a 'free-for-all hellscape': Elon Musk offered a glimpse into his plans for Twitter in an open letter to advertisers posted on the eve of his highly anticipated $44 billion acquisition of the social media site. In the letter posted to Twitter today, the Tesla and SpaceX CEO said he does not want the site to become "a free-for-all hellscape where anything can be said with no consequences," an apparent rhetorical shift from Musk's previous promise to change Twitter's content moderation policies and make the site a bastion of "free speech." The statement came a day after Musk quelled rumors that he planned to fire 75 percent of Twitter's staff.  — Jan. 6 rioter who assaulted officer gets 90 months: A Jan. 6 rioter who committed one of the day's most brutal assaults against a police officer has been sentenced to 90 months in prison , the second-longest sentence yet for a member of the mob that stormed the Capitol. Albuquerque Cosper Head of Tennessee pleaded guilty to yanking Washington Metropolitan Police Officer Michael Fanone away from police lines — shouting "I got one!" before other violent actors in the crowd dragged him away, tased him and robbed him of his badge and radio. Head engaged in a prolonged confrontation with police in the Capitol's lower west terrace tunnel, the site of the day's worst violence. — Fulton prosecutors to Supreme Court: Don't let Lindsey Graham get out of testifying: Atlanta-area prosecutors urged the Supreme Court today to reject Sen. Lindsey Graham's effort to avoid testifying in their investigation of Donald Trump's effort to subvert the 2020 election. Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis told the high court that granting Graham's request to block a subpoena for his testimony would undermine the grand jury's work by either delaying it or forcing it to draw conclusions about the election-related pressure campaign without having the senator's account. The grand jury's term is due to expire in April 2023.   DON'T MISS POLITICO'S 2nd ANNUAL DEFENSE SUMMIT ON 11/16: The United States is facing a defining moment in the future of its defense, national security and democratic ideals. The current conflicts and developments around the world are pushing Washington to reshape its defense strategy and how it cooperates with allies. Join POLITICO for our second annual defense summit, "At a Crossroads: America's Defense Strategy" on November 16 in person at the Schuyler DC or join online to hear keynote interviews and panels discussing the road ahead for America's national security. REGISTER HERE .     AROUND THE WORLD NO NUKES FOR NOW — Russian President Vladimir Putin today denied having any intentions of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine but described the conflict there as part of alleged efforts by the West to secure its global domination, which he insisted are doomed to fail. Speaking at a conference of international foreign policy experts, Putin said it's pointless for Russia to strike Ukraine with nuclear weapons. "We see no need for that," Putin said. "There is no point in that, neither political, nor military." In a long speech full of diatribes against the U.S. and its allies, Putin accused the U.S. and its allies of trying to dictate their terms to other nations in a "dangerous, bloody and dirty" domination game. Putin, who sent his troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24, has cast Western support for Ukraine as part of broad efforts by Washington and its allies to enforce its will upon others through what they call a rules-based world order. He argued that the world has reached a turning point, when "the West is no longer able to dictate its will to the humankind but still tries to do it, and the majority of nations no longer want to tolerate it." Nightly Number 2.6 percent The annual rate at which the U.S. economy grew from July through September . The growth rate, better than forecasted, snapped two straight quarters of economic contraction and defied punishingly high inflation and interest rates. Stronger exports and steady consumer spending, backed by a healthy job market, helped restore growth to the world's biggest economy. Radar Sweep COGNITIVE DISSONANCE — Have past polling misses broken political forecasting? Polling that underrated Republican support in 2016 and 2020 might be leading political reporters to miss a bigger story about how Democrats are actually remaining competitive despite high inflation, an unpopular president and the historical precedent of midterm elections. The difference in this cycle, the author writes, is that Republican-affiliated pollsters — who were more accurate in the last two presidential years than polling averages — now have more funding and are releasing more polls … which are skewing those polling averages. Reporters should be emphasizing how close this election is, and that there's no way of knowing who is going to win, given how close the recent polling has been, Dan Guild reports for Progressive blog Bleeding Heartland. Parting Words The recent controversy surrounding the monitoring of ballot drop boxes by self-appointed Republican "observers" in Arizona has, rightly, focused on serious stuff: There have been complaints of potential voter intimidation , while armed, masked men in tactical gear were seen observing a box in Mesa, outside Phoenix. While the armed men might have been unusual, Siders emails Nightly, they are representative of a deep vein of election truther-ism coursing through the GOP's rank-and-file in places like Arizona. Election workers collect returned ballots in Washington state in 2020. | Nathan Howard/Getty Images DISPATCH FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL — On the night I visited a ballot drop box in Mesa last week, not long after dinner time, a woman watching the box from a camp chair in the parking lot said her presence was important to send a message to would-be cheaters. A man nearby told me, "It's just where I need to be right now." But both of them left without anyone else around to monitor the box. When I drove by a drop box in Phoenix the following day, no one was there, either. This is not a 24-hour operation. It's performative — to intimidate or to deter, depending on your point of view. Unless you're really deep into it, that is. At a rally over the weekend for Kari Lake, the Republican nominee for governor, I mentioned to a supporter in the crowd that I'd seen drop boxes left unattended. I wondered if he worried about that. It turns out he did. He looked at me knowingly and said, "They should be there the whole time." Did someone forward this email to you?  Sign up here .   Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh Naomi Andu @naomiandu   Follow us

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