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| Axios Sneak Peek |
| By Alayna Treene, Hans Nichols and Zachary Basu · Oct 25, 2022 |
| Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,033 words ... 4 minutes. 🎤 Situational awareness: Democrat John Fetterman and Republican Mehmet Oz square off at 8pm ET for the Pennsylvania Senate race's only debate. |
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| 1 big thing: Corporate America lawyers up |
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| Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios |
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| Fortune 500 companies are retaining major law firms with GOP relationships in anticipation of a Republican-controlled House eager for retribution against corporations it views as abetting left-wing forces, Axios' Sophia Cai and Lachlan Markay report. Why it matters: Once the allies of big business, the modern Republican Party is preparing to accelerate a political realignment by wielding Congress' subpoena power against key segments of corporate America. - Targets would likely include Big Tech companies conservatives have criticized as overly censorious, financial giants pushing sustainable investing and beneficiaries of massive Biden-era spending programs.
How we got here: Increased corporate engagement on social issues such as racial justice and abortion rights has pitted huge segments of corporate America against GOP policy orthodoxy. The split has left corporate America desperately seeking out the scant few firms in Washington that can help forge inroads with a GOP caucus less amenable to business concerns than in years past. - "Republican lobbyists for years delivered win after win after win for corporate America with a Republican Party that wanted to help," one K Street Republican told Axios.
- "A lot of those members that helped deliver those wins have retired or lost elections and are being replaced by people that could care less about building a relationship with a Fortune 500 company's in-house lobbyist."
Behind the scenes: Holland & Knight partner Christopher Armstrong, who specializes in congressional investigations, told Axios he's briefing corporate clients on a presumptive GOP caucus eyeing oversight powers to target private companies. - Aaron Cutler, head of the congressional investigations practice at Hogan Lovells, told Axios that his firm organizes two- to three-hour simulations to grill CEOs, asking questions that may "get under their skin" like a member of Congress would.
These preparations aren't grounded in paranoia: For months, top House conservatives and outside allies have been plotting investigative strategies into private as well as public entities. - If Republicans retake investigative powers in November, "the days of just focusing on government agency action are over," Mike Howell, who leads the Heritage Foundation's Oversight Project, told Axios over the summer.
- "It's not just the government now where the left is enacting its agenda; it's in corporate boardrooms, it's in school boards."
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| 2. 🌊 Wave watch: New danger for Dem stars |
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| President Biden and Rep. Katie Porter in Irvine, Calif., on Oct. 14. Photo: Mario Tama/Getty Images |
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| With exactly two weeks until the midterms, Cook Political Report has upgraded its outlook for House Republican gains from 10–20 seats to 12–25 seats — with 10 new rating changes this week alone. Between the lines: All six races that CPR moved in Republicans' direction are in states President Biden won in 2020 — while all four shifting toward Democrats are in states former President Trump won. - It's the product of a "highly bifurcated" House landscape, CPR's Dave Wasserman writes. Many Democrats are running ahead of Biden's approval rating in red and purple states, but face unexpected headaches in blue states like New York, Connecticut and Oregon.
- One explanation: The party's abortion messaging is much more potent in states where GOP control could actually make a difference, as opposed to in blue states where abortion rights are more secure.
Zoom in: We wrote yesterday about how Republicans smell "blood in the water" in their bid to oust Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.), chair of the DCCC. But he's not the only Democratic heavyweight in trouble: - CPR moved Rep. Abigail Spanberger's (D-Va.) race in Virginia's 7th district from "lean Democrat" to "toss up," despite her running a "near flawless" campaign, Wasserman writes.
- Rep. Katie Porter's (D-Calif.) race remains in "lean Democrat" territory for now, but the progressive star (and potential future Senate candidate) is also at "genuine risk" of losing a seat Biden won by 11 points.
Full ratings breakdown. |
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| 3. 💰 GOP's cat-and-mouse game |
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| Don Bolduc at a campaign event. Photo: Josh Reynolds for The Washington Post via Getty Images |
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| The NRSC is recommitting resources to the New Hampshire Senate race, just days after the McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund canceled its spending on behalf of nominee Don Bolduc, Axios' Josh Kraushaar scoops. Why it matters: A new Emerson College poll finds the race is tightening, with the MAGA-aligned Bolduc pulling within the margin of error of Sen. Maggie Hassan. How we got here: The SLF spent over $4.5 million to back Bolduc's more moderate opponent in the GOP primary, believing the far-right candidate's nomination could squander a winnable Senate battleground. - Despite Bolduc pledging to vote against Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) as GOP leader, the SLF still spent $16 million to support him against Hassan after he prevailed in the primary.
- In early October, the NRSC canceled its TV reservations for Bolduc to focus on other Senate battlegrounds, citing the SLF's investment in New Hampshire.
- But this week, the SLF withdrew $5.6 million in ad reservations to shift its own resources to other states. Now the NRSC is back — a sign of the frantic triage we can expect to see from both sides over the next two weeks.
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| A message from Axios |
| Start a new morning habit |
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| In just 10 minutes, catch up on the important news and interesting stories you won't hear anywhere else with host Niala Boodhoo. Each weekday morning, get the latest in everything from politics to space to race and justice. Listen now for free. |
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| 4. 📺 Must watch: Trump's Blake Masters call |
| Screenshot: "Tucker Carlson Originals" In an astonishing clip from Tucker Carlson's new documentary on Blake Masters, the GOP Senate nominee in Arizona is shown taking a phone call from former President Trump after his debate against Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.). - Masters had said during the GOP primary that he believed Trump won the 2020 election, but he clarified at the debate that he sees no evidence that there was vote rigging.
"I heard you did great at the debate, but a bad election answer," Trump tells Masters, advising him to be more like Arizona's GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake. - "If they say, 'How is your family?' She says, 'The election was rigged and stolen.' You lose if you go soft. You're going to lose that base," Trump warns.
- "I'm not going soft," Masters promises Trump.
Why it matters: The remarkable footage underscores the balancing act that Trump-endorsed nominees often maintain in swing states, where fealty to the former president and his conspiracy theories may alienate key voters. Watch the clip. |
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| 5. 💉 Parting shot |
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| Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images |
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| President Biden today became one of over 20 million people — not nearly enough, in his administration's view — to receive the updated COVID-19 booster. |
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| A message from Axios |
| Start a new morning habit |
| |
| |
| |
| In just 10 minutes, catch up on the important news and interesting stories you won't hear anywhere else with host Niala Boodhoo. Each weekday morning, get the latest in everything from politics to space to race and justice. Listen now for free. |
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| 📬 Thanks for reading. This newsletter was edited by Zachary Basu and copy edited by Sheryl Miller. |
 | | Are you a fan of this email format? It's called Smart Brevity®. Over 300 orgs use it — in a tool called Axios HQ — to drive productivity with clearer workplace communications. | | |
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