Tuesday, August 9, 2022

😬Inflation May Start to Decline, But It’s Not Going Away

Good morning. When it comes to America's lawmaking process, you can get a good idea of what will...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. When it comes to America's lawmaking process, you can get a good idea of what will happen by taking a law's title and assuming the opposite. Many are taking that approach with the "Inflation Reduction Act," a law just passed by the Senate and moving to the House for a vote.

Rather than cut back government spending, the law looks to increase it by hundreds of billions of dollars. With the government running a deficit, chances are this legislation will add to, not reduce, inflationary pressures.

That's especially good news for the wealthy, as high-earners will be largely unaffected. For those who aren't yet in the 1 percent, look for inflation protection with the ownership of assets that can rise over time. That includes real estate and quality stocks. As long as massive bills like this are being passed, a return to the low inflation of the last decade seems unlikely.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 32,832.54 +0.09%
S&P 4,140.06 -0.12%
NASDAQ 12,644.46 -0.10%
*As of market close
Stocks traded mixed on Monday, as earnings season continued to unfold.
Oil rose 1.7 percent, closing at $90.56 per barrel.
Gold rallied 0.8 percent, last going for $1,805 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies trended higher, with Bitcoin at $23,930 at the stock market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
The Economy Is Slowing, But Not Ending – Grab Winners for the Rebound Now
Investors are often prone to taking a current trend and extrapolating it out indefinitely. That means in a bull market, traders get overly aggressive. But in a bear market, traders look at the current trend and get overly pessimistic.

We're seeing signs of an economic slowdown. But that slowdown is with the goal of getting inflation out of the economy. We still have a strong jobs market and consumer strength. That may lower, but it's not going to end.

» FULL STORY

Insider Trading Report: Stanley Black & Decker (SWK)
Andrea Ayers, a director at Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), recently added 15,500 shares. The buy increased her holdings by nearly 700 percent, and came to a total price of $1.48 million.

This represents the first insider buy at the company in the past three years. Over that time, a number of company executives have been regular sellers of shares. No company directors have been sellers of shares over the past three years.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc (AMC)
Shares of theater chain AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) have been on a volatile ride in the past year, but the stock is down about 30 percent. One trader sees the possibility for a further drop in the months ahead.

That's based on the October $25 put option. With 73 days left until expiration, 4,829 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 147, for a 33-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the puts paid $7.30 to get in.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
Senate Passes Big Spending Bills

The US Senate has passed a series of bills on items relating to inflation, climate, and healthcare. The bills are now going to the House for a vote. The bills will create hundreds of billions of dollars in additional government spending on a variety of items, and passed the Senate on a 51-50 vote.
Consumers See Decreased Inflation Expectations

A new survey by the New York Fed shows that respondents expect inflation to hit a 6.2 percent pace in the next year, down from the current level of over 9 percent. Consumers also expect an overall rate of about 3.2 percent over the next 3 years. This is a sizeable drop in expectations from the June survey, as gasoline prices have come down in recent weeks.
Carried-Interest Tax Break Stays, For Now

A proposal to remove the lack of a tax on carried interest failed in the most recent Inflation Reduction Act bill. The proposal has been based on the idea that carried interest allows hedge funds, private equity, and other players to essentially understate their tax obligations.
Trump SPAC Deal Delayed on Legal Issues

Special purpose acquisition company Digital World Acquisition Corp (DWAC), has yet to close on its proposed deal to buy Trump Media & Technology Group. The company has had a number of regulatory and legal barriers, and now seeks a shareholder approval to extend its September 8 deadline to close the deal.
Lyft Looks to Add In-Car Ads

Ride share platform Lyft (LYFT) is creating a media division. The goal is to grab part of the in-car ad market. That could include ads on tablets, its mobile app, and even on car roofs and bicycles. Such a move could add as much as $1 billion in extra revenue by as soon as 2024.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
PENN  5.271%
5.241%
GM 4.271%
APTV 4.207%
TRIP 4.17%
BOTTOM
TSN 8.674%
NVDA 6.14%
JD 4.902%
STZ 4.383%
TCOM 4.148%

Quote of the Day
Anybody that jumped on the 'Fed is going to pivot next year and start cutting rates' is going to have to get off at the next station, because that's not in the cards. It is clearly a situation where the economy is not screeching or heading into a recession here and now.
- Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Financial, expressing the view that the economy won't go into a recession in 2023, and that as a result, interest rates may stay higher for longer than expected.

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