| | | | | |  | | By Elizabeth Ralph | Presented by Masterworks | | | | What should we be watching for next week, as the ballots are counted across the country? Where will women swing the election for one candidate or another? Where is female representation most threatened? Will the Republican Party actually be able to boost the numbers of women in its ranks? I asked three top-notch POLITICO reporters to be our guides and tell us what they're watching for on Tuesday when it comes to women in politics. Here's what they had to say: From Laura Barrón-López, national reporter covering 2020: "How many white women will break for Joe Biden? First, I'll note that Black and Latino women are overwhelmingly behind Biden, making up the core of his strong numbers with women nationally. (He leads Donald Trump with women by double digits consistently across the country.) But where white women fall will determine who wins states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and other key battlegrounds. This cycle we've seen a clear divide by education level. White college-educated women have been breaking hard for Biden, fueling a massive gender gap among white voters. In 2016, Trump won 50 percent of white women's votes, compared with 47 percent for Clinton, in the "tipping point" state of Pennsylvania, according to exit polls. Biden now is leading with the demographic in the state by anywhere from 10 to 20 points, based on recent polling. Non-college educated women are a key piece of the president's coalition and in some swing states are largely sticking with him. But slippage with that group could determine his fate. In 2016, 56 percent of non-college educated white women in Wisconsin voted for Trump, while 40 percent voted for Clinton. Now, Biden is leading with that cohort in the state by 15 points, according to a recent ABC/Washington Post poll. Biden has chipped away at this subgroup in multiple states. From Melanie Zanona, Congress reporter: "Will House GOP women significantly add to their ranks, or will their depressingly low levels essentially stay the same? The 2018 midterms were a real low point — and wake up call — for female lawmakers in the Republican Party. So this cycle, GOP women corralled party leaders, donors and outside groups to mount an all-out campaign to close the gender gap. "The initial effort has been successful. Republicans have seen a record number of women run for office and win their primaries. And, perhaps equally as important, the GOP has experienced a real attitude and cultural shift around electing more women to Congress. "The real test, however, will come on Election Night. Many of the GOP's top female recruits are running in some of the toughest races in the country. And they're facing a challenging political climate and Trump-related headwinds, which could bring another soul-crushing disappointment for House Republican women. But they have a real opportunity to make serious gains. Among the candidates best poised to flip Democratic seats: Michelle Fischbach, a former lieutenant governor running against Rep. Collin Peterson (D-Minn.); former Rep. Claudia Tenney, who is locked in a rematch with Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D-N.Y.); and state Sen. Stephanie Bice, who is challenging Rep. Kendra Horn (D-Okla.)." From Ally Mutnick, reporter covering House campaigns and redistricting: "I'll be looking to see if House Democrats can top the record 88 women they have serving in this current Congress. Because only a handful of the incumbents have truly competitive reelections in 2020, they are well positioned to grow their ranks. Six new Democratic women are already set to replace men in safe seats, including Marie Newman, who ousted Rep. Dan Lipinski, the anti-abortion-rights Democrat in Illinois, in a primary, and Cori Bush, who felled longtime Rep. Lacy Clay in Missouri. (Two Democratic incumbents retiring from safe, blue seats will be replaced by men, however.) If House Democrats see a net gain of twelve women next week, they could have 100 women in their conference for the first time in history. The math is in their favor: 30 of the top three dozen Democratic challengers are women, and nearly all of them are vying to replace or succeed male incumbents. A dozen of them are seats that POLITICO rates as toss-ups. Among the most likely new members: Carolyn Bourdeaux in Georgia, Gina Ortiz Jones in Texas and Christy Smith in California. I'll also be watching to see if Republicans lose their record high of nine women in the Senate. That's probably more likely than not. Four of them — Susan Collins of Maine, Kelly Loeffler in Georgia, Joni Ernst in Iowa and Martha McSally in Arizona, all Republicans — face competitive reelections. But Senate Republicans likely will gain another woman in Cynthia Lummis, who is heavily favored to replace the outgoing Mike Enzi in deep-red Wyoming. Happy Friday! Take a break from refreshing FiveThirtyEight to enjoy Women Rule! We'll give you your Election Day fix, but also, hopefully, some other things to think about. Send your thanks to my tireless Women Rule partner, Maya Parthasarathy, who brings you the best reads of the week. Subscribe here. | | | | A message from Masterworks: You don't have to take big risks to make big returns. Take it from us, day trading doesn't work—boost your portfolio stability with art, one of the oldest and largest uncorrelated assets. For the first time ever, Masterworks makes it possible for anyone to invest in iconic works of art by the likes of Banksy, Kaws, Basquiat (and more) at a starting point everyone can afford. Skip the waitlist here. | | | MARK YOUR CALENDARS -- Join me on November 12 for a post-election roundtable discussion diving into how women candidates fared at all levels this year. We'll be joined by Shaniqua McClendon, the political director of Crooked Media, and Micah Yousefi, the political and policy director of Winning for Women, as well as one or two other guests. Register for the event here 2020 WATCH -- "These candidates are women of color — and Republican. They say they're the future of the GOP," by Lateshia Beachum: "When Valerie Ramirez Mukherjee meets voters in her district, they are surprised to learn that a woman with her name and background isn't a Democrat. Ramirez Mukherjee, 47, the daughter of a Slovenian mother and a Mexican father, and the wife of a first-generation Indian American, said her name and 'triracial household' have opened up an opportunity to reach voters who normally wouldn't give a Republican the time of day. "'They're used to one-syllable names like Mike, Bob and Dole,' she said of Illinois's 10th Congressional District, where she's running. It's nearly 10 percent Asian, 7 percent Black and includes many of the northern suburbs of Chicago. 'That's been fantastic for me. People open their ears, they listen about why I chose the Republican Party.' The former finance and technology executive is hoping to unseat incumbent Democrat Rep. Brad Schneider in a district that last voted for a Republican in 2014 — perfect purple data that made her and her local Republican Party chapter bet that she could win. "Ramirez Mukherjee is among the increased number of Republican women running for congressional seats this election cycle, 33 of whom are women of color, according to the Center for American Women and Politics . With just 17 percent of non-White registered voters casting ballots for the Republican Party under a president often accused of racial dog whistling, many say the GOP doesn't look or encompass the country. Democrats made up the vast majority of the historic wave of women elected to Congress in 2018. This year's expanded number of Republican women vying to work in Washington may be a response to the success witnessed by their Democratic counterparts, according to Sergio Garcia-Rios, assistant professor of government and Latino studies at Cornell University." The Lily -- "Elissa Slotkin Wants to Know Who'll Stand Up to Trump If He Loses," by Tim Alberta: "It was the sort of scene you couldn't have imagined four years ago. Brighton is a conservative town in [Michigan's] ultraconservative Livingston County. Democrats have had no political footprint here in decades. There was hardly a Hillary Clinton yard sign to be found in 2016, much less a sophisticated, well-financed Democratic Party apparatus. But Slotkin's relentless courtship of the political center, joined with President Donald Trump's antagonizing of well-educated suburbs like this one, has produced a groundswell of pro-Democrat activity in some of the most traditionally Republican areas of her district. Now, two weeks out from Election Day, the first-term incumbent and her small army of volunteers were pouring it on, refusing to settle for what internal polling indicated would be a safe victory in the 8th District. Harnessing the extraordinary intensity on the ground, Slotkin and her team were sending out a final 4,000 postcards, bringing their total close to 28,000, aiming to push turnout to historic levels and secure Democratic victories up and down the ticket. "So why wasn't Slotkin satisfied? She worries that just winning is no longer enough. With the president regularly lobbing allegations of a rigged election — one that he cannot possibly lose fair and square — Slotkin, a former CIA officer, worries that America could be hurtling toward a civil and constitutional crisis. This is not what a vulnerable freshman campaigner is often preoccupied with down the home stretch of their maiden reelection campaign. But Slotkin can think of little else these days." POLITICO Magazine -- "Native women in Arizona lead the way for voting access on tribal reservations," via The 19th ... "Trump Wants To Keep The Suburbs White. Black Women Say That's Fine By Them," via BuzzFeed News SCOTUS -- "Senate confirms Barrett to Supreme Court, sealing a conservative majority for decades," by Andrew Desiderio: "The Senate on Monday voted to confirm Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court, handing President Donald Trump a sorely needed win just eight days before the election and solidifying a conservative majority on the high court for a generation. Monday's vote capped a 30-day sprint that has driven the Senate even deeper into the bitter partisanship that has defined the institution over the past two decades, prompting vague threats of retribution if Democrats take control of the chamber after the Nov. 3 election. "Trump nominated Barrett exactly one month ago, and Republicans quickly coalesced around Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's push to confirm the 48-year-old federal judge to the high court, largely steamrolling Democrats' demands to delay her confirmation until after the election — resulting in the first Supreme Court confirmation with only one-party support since the 19th century. ... "Barrett, just the fifth woman ever confirmed to the court, will shift its ideological balance to the right, replacing Ginsburg, the liberal icon who died last month from complications due to cancer. Barrett's confirmation caps off Trump's and McConnell's dramatic reshaping of the federal judiciary over the past four years; Barrett is the 220th Trump-nominated federal judge confirmed by the Senate, an achievement that will reverberate long after the 2020 elections. Speaking at a ceremonial swearing-in ceremony at the White House on Monday night, Barrett pledged to act 'independently of both the political branches and of my own preferences,' reiterating her vow during her confirmation hearings to set aside her personal beliefs." POLITICO -- "Amy Coney Barrett's appointment is a wake-up call for female voters," by Cecile Richards for The Guardian ... "Is it too late to hope for a Black woman on the Supreme Court?" by Petula Dvorak for WaPo | 
PHOTO OF THE WEEK: Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on the cover of the December issue of Vanity Fair. | Credit: Vanity Fair/Tyler Mitchell | | | | AROUND THE WORLD -- "Polish Women Lead Strike Over Abortion Ruling Amid Threats of Crackdown," by Marc Santora, Monika Pronczuk and Anatol Magdziarz: "Tens of thousands of women took to the streets in dozens of Polish cities and towns for a nationwide strike on Wednesday to protest a top court's decision to ban nearly all abortions, even as the nation's leading politician urged his conservative supporters to 'defend Poland.' The call by Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the deputy prime minister and leader of the ruling Law and Justice party, to fight back against the protesters and his description of the opposition as 'criminals' seeking to 'destroy the Polish nation,' threatened to escalate an already tense moment in the deeply divided nation. … "The women protesting the abortion ruling have been joined by a host of other groups opposed to what they see as the authoritarian drift of the ruling party. The ban on abortion — made by a court ruling that is not subject to appeal — was for many the culmination of a multiyear effort by the ruling party to undermine the rule of law and, step by step, take control of the judicial system." NYT -- "'I was absolutely terrified': Australian witness recounts Qatar strip-search ordeal," via The Guardian ... "Saudi G20 event slammed over kingdom's treatment of women," via NBC News WOMEN (OUT OF) WORK -- "The recession is hitting women of color the hardest," by Soo Youn: "The report shows that White women are recovering much more rapidly from initial job losses, noting that layoffs and care burdens are disproportionately reducing employment among Black, Asian American and Latina mothers." The Lily -- "Trump uses outdated thinking in attempt to woo suburban women: I'm 'getting your husbands back to work,'" via CNN ... "Women less likely to receive retention pay at NSA," via Federal Times IN TECH -- "Is Twitter Going Full Resistance? Here's the Woman Driving the Change," by Nancy Scola: "On a late fall day last year, Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey sat down on a couch on the company's San Francisco roof deck and dug into a problem. Next to him was the company's top lawyer, Vijaya Gadde. The 2020 U.S. election was barely a year out and Twitter executives were worried the company was steering into the exact mess it had helped fuel in 2016, when political campaigns and Russian disinformation artists had pumped so much chaos into the system through precision-targeted social-media ads that the world's democratic institutions could barely keep up. "Twitter had added new transparency rules, making ad buyers disclose who they were. It wasn't enough. What more could it do? Gadde pitched Dorsey on a radical idea for a fix: Maybe Twitter should just, well, stop selling political ads. It was a bold idea — no other major American platform had simply banned political ads — and Dorsey wasn't immediately sold. … Gadde — officially Twitter's head of legal, policy and trust — pressed her case, and she had allies on the idea inside the building, including the head of Twitter's trust and safety team. Within days Dorsey signed off on the idea, announcing a global ban on political ads on October 30, 2019, in an 11-tweet thread detailing the company's reasoning. "For those who know the inner workings of Twitter, it was another sign of the rising influence of Gadde, the connected, liberal-leaning lawyer who has helped drive the company to more heavily regulate what users can say and post. Twitter's new rules, from the ad ban to its deletion of controversial Covid-19 tweets, have rippled through Silicon Valley and caused huge blowback in American politics, where many — especially conservatives — now see Twitter as unfriendly territory." POLITICO Magazine -- "She's Bursting Big Tech's Bubble: How antitrust lawyer Lina Khan is taking on the most powerful men in Silicon Valley," via "Sway" with Kara Swisher | | | | A message from Masterworks:   | | | COVER STORY -- "AOC's Next Four Years: The history-making congresswoman addresses her biggest critics, the challenges that loom no matter who wins, and what she's taking on next," by Michelle Ruiz Vanity Fair BREAKING THE GLASS CEILING -- "Ilhan Omar, Kamala Harris, and More on the Privileges and Pressures of Being a Political 'First,'" via Harper's Bazaar HISTORY DEPT. -- "Why these women just walked Harriet Tubman's 116-mile journey from the Underground Railroad," by Sydney Page: "A Harriet Tubman picture book sat untouched on a shelf in Linda Harris's home in Prince George's County for nearly three decades, gathering dust. Her father gave her the book — 'Runaway Slave: The Story of Harriet Tubman' — when she was a child, to educate her about her African American heritage. She had a sudden desire to read it in May after George Floyd was killed in police custody during an arrest in Minneapolis. The children's book, published in 1965, chronicles Harriet Tubman's heroic missions leading dozens of enslaved people to freedom between 1850 and 1860 through a network of secret passages and safe houses known as the Underground Railroad. … "Harris got an idea: She wanted to retrace Tubman's footsteps along the Underground Railroad, traveling by foot from Cambridge, Md., to Kennett Square, Pa. — totaling roughly 116 miles. 'I wanted to emulate her path,' Harris said. But she didn't want to do it alone. Harris hoped to find others who were also seeking a connection to this era of history during a period of racial unrest. She shared her mission on various Facebook pages, including GirlTrek and Outdoor Afro — organizations aimed at connecting people of color with others to engage in physical activities. Harris formed a group of eight women who were otherwise strangers, ranging in age from 38 to 65. The women, who all live in the D.C. area, spent every Saturday in the spring and summer training together." WaPo -- "The Woman Who Led Kamala Harris to This Moment," via The Atlantic IN MEMORIAM -- "Cecilia Chiang, an S.F. legend and the matriarch of Chinese food in America, dies at 100," via San Francisco Chronicle ON SCREEN -- Desi Lydic, correspondent for The Daily Show, hosts a special on the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg that premieres Friday 11 p.m. ET on Comedy Central, "Remembering RBG: A Nation Ugly Cries with Desi Lydic." -- "Where are real portrayals of women over 50 on screen? New study highlights dearth of leading roles," by Andrea Mandell: "A new study finds that women of a certain age group are relegated to supporting roles in films — or are consistently portrayed as grumpy, frumpy or worse. The Ageless Test study, released Tuesday by TENA in partnership with the Geena Davis Institute on Gender in Media at Mount Saint Mary's University, reveals only 1 in 4 films passed what they call the Ageless Test. ... "The study analyzed 2019's top grossing films from the U.S., U.K., France and Germany. The results were sobering: No women over 50 were cast in leading roles in 2019's top films, while two men over 50 were featured as leads. And when older women did appear, they were cast in stereotypical fashion (stubborn, 33%; unattractive, 17%; grumpy, 32%; unfashionable, 18%). 'Given that adults 50+ are 20% of our global population, we need to not only include diverse adults 50+ in our stories, but also show them having full lives in order to de-stigmatize the stereotypes around aging,' Davis said in a statement." USA Today -- "Sarah Cooper's Humor Is Not What You Thought," via The Atlantic VIDEO -- Funny feelings and early voting in swing states | 
| | | | TRANSITIONS -- Juanita Holmes will be the first woman to be chief of patrol at the NYPD. | | | | A message from Masterworks: History shows adding blue-chip art can boost portfolio stability. Data from Citi's Global Art Market Report 2019 finds art to be one of the least volatile asset classes, sharing a correlation factor of just 0.13 to public equities. Beyond that, contemporary art has outperformed the S&P by over 180% from 2000–2018, according to industry benchmarks. Although investing in art has been around for centuries (Sotheby's was once the oldest company listed on the NYSE) only the ultra-wealthy have been able to participate. Modern investing platforms like Masterworks are finally democratizing the $1.7 trillion art market by giving anyone access at a starting point everyone can afford. Skip the 25,000+ waitlist by signing up today. | | | WISDOM OF THE WEEK -- Jill Bourque, CEO of RushTix: "Never give up. So many entrepreneurs give up too soon. They're so close to success but give up right before the breakthrough. Sometimes it's 'darkest before the dawn' when it comes to running a business. You will have times where it just seems very difficult — you can't see the clear path, but just keep taking steps and push through the mental barriers to get the other side. That doesn't mean keep trying the same thing over and over while expecting the same results — that is the definition of insanity. Use your creativity to find new ways to solve the problem." Connect with Jill here. | | | | POLITICO Magazine Justice Reform: The Prison Conditions Issue, presented by Verizon: The Covid-19 pandemic has highlighted the difference between "inside" and the rest of society. With overcrowding, inadequate funding, and uneven medical care, prisons have become hotbeds of the outbreak - with substantial costs on the outside. POLITICO Magazine's latest Justice Reform package looks at movements to improve prisons and how the epidemic has affected them. READ THE FULL ISSUE. | | | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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