Friday, October 30, 2020

FX Strategy 30 Oct 2020

 
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FX Strategy 30 Oct 2020

 

In the G10 FX Market, JPY and CHF are the top gainers today, up 0.26% and 0.14% versus the dollar while NOK and NZD are the top losers, down -0.27% and -0.05% versus the dollar, respectively. In the rates market, global yields were trading mixed today. The UK 10-year was trading at 0.24, up 2.5bp. The German 10-year was trading at -0.621, up 1.1bp. The Japan 10-year was trading at 0.038, up 0.8bp. The US 10-year was trading at 0.82, down -1.1bp.

 

In the Asian equities, markets were trading weaker today. The Kospi was trading at 2267.15, down -2.56%. The Nikkei 225 was trading at 22977.13, down -1.52%. The Hang Seng was trading at 24006.0, down -2.36%. In the European equities, indices were trading weak today. The Euro Stoxx 50 was trading at 2928.75, down -1.06%. The FTSE 100 was trading at 5532.44, down -0.88%. The DAX 30 was trading at 11452.55, down -1.25%.

 

Looking at Equity Futures so far, the Euro Stoxx 50 Futures was trading at 2924.0, down -0.88%. The SP500 Futures was trading at 3250.0, down -0.81%. The FTSE100 Futures was trading at 5510.5, down -1.04%.

 

In the Energy space, Oil futures were trading weak today. The Brent Crude Futures was trading at 38.12, down -0.1%. The WTI Crude Futures was trading at 36.09, down -0.22%.

 

In terms of economic data releases, we have already seen Australian PPI QoQ Q3 (Actual 0.4% v Forecast 0.7%) and YoY Q3 (Actual -0.4% v Forecast -0.1%) plus Housing Starts YoY data from Japan for September (Actual -9.9% v Forecast -8.3%). We have also had French GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel Q3 (Actual 18.2% v Forecast 15.1%) and German Retail Sales for September, with YoY (Actual 6.5% v Forecast 6%) and MoM (Actual -2.2% v Forecast -0.5%) plus UK Nationwide Housing Prices for October YoY (Actual 5.8% v Forecast 4.7%) and MoM (Actual 0.8% v Forecast 0.5%). More recently, Spanish GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash Q3 (Actual 16.7% v Forecast 14.2%) and YoY Flash Q3 (Actual -8.7% v Forecast -12.3%) were released. At 09:00 GMT German GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash Q3 (Previous -9.7% v Forecast 7.2%) and YoY Flash Q3 (Previous -11.3% v Forecast -5.8%) alongside Italian GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv Q3 (Previous -13.0% v Forecast 10.5%) and YoY Adv Q3 (Previous -18.0% v Forecast -10.3%) will be released onto the wires. More GDP figures are released at 10:00 GMT with Euro Area GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash Q3 (Previous -11.8% v Forecast 7.5%) and YoY Flash Q3 (Previous -14.7% v Forecast -8.0%) and Euro Area Unemployment Rate for September (Previous 8.1% v Forecast 8.6%).

 

The afternoon session starts at 12:30 GMT with US Personal Income MoM for September (Previous -2.7% v Forecast 0.4%) and Personal Spending for September (Previous 1% v Forecast 0.8%) plus Canadian GDP MoM for August (Previous 3% v Forecast 1%). At 13:45 GMT we look forward to US Chicago PMI for October (Previous 62.4% v Forecast 56%) and following at 14:00 GMT we have US Michigan data for October with Consumer Expectations Final (Previous 75.6 v Forecast 78.8), Consumer Sentiment Final (Previous 80.4% v Forecast 81.2) and Current Conditions Final (Previous 87.8 v Forecast 84.9). Bundesbank's Weidmann is speaking at 14:30 GMT and concludes Friday's data releases.

 

10-Year Yields Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Daily FX Pivots

 
 

Brent Crude Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Forex Chart and Technical Analysis

 

EURUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 1.1629 for 1.1738
Short-term view: EURUSD MACD and RSI are flat but support comes in at 1.1629 and we see a rise to 1.1738 enter at 1.1665. Below 1.1629 to open 1.1585

 

GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 1.301 for 1.2866
Short-term view: GBPUSD resistance comes in at 1.301 MACD and RSI have a bearish bias. Hence, we see a dip to 1.2866 enter at 1.2962. Above 1.301 to open 1.309

 

USDJPY Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 104.18 for 104.88
Short-term view: USDJPY MACD and RSI are flat but support comes in at 104.18 and we see a rise to 104.88 enter at 104.35. Below 104.18 to open 103.75

 

AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 0.6995 for 0.7069
Short-term view: AUDUSD MACD and RSI are flat but support comes in at 0.6995 and we see a rise to 0.7069 enter at 0.7019. Below 0.6995 to open 0.6962

 
 
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