| | | | | |  | | By Anna Palmer, Jake Sherman, Eli Okun and Garrett Ross | Presented by |  | | | WE'VE SET TWO RECORDS this week: The United States has had its worst week ever for coronavirus cases, and two states have already beaten their 2016 numbers for overall voter turnout. Connected? THE NYT notes that there have been 500,000 cases recorded this week, and "half of U.S. counties saw new cases peak during the past month. Almost a third saw a record in the past week." TAKE A LOOK at the hardest-hit areas, and they line up with some of the most critical areas for the presidential contest: vast swaths of Midwestern swing states. IN THE DISTRICT, WaPo's JULIE ZAUZMER notes: "The daily rate of new coronavirus cases in DC rose above 10 per 100,000 residents today for the first time in months. Today's rate is the highest since June 8. On Sept. 30, we were at 5.1 per 100,000." MEANWHILE, THE STATE OF TEXAS has reached a different kind of record: AP/AUSTIN: "Texans have already cast more ballots in the presidential election than they did during all of 2016, an unprecedented surge of early voting in a state that was once the country's most reliably Republican, but may now be drifting toward battleground status. "More than 9 million ballots have been cast as of Friday morning in the nation's second most-populous state, exceeding the 8,969,226 cast in 2016, according to an Associated Press tally of early votes from data provided by Texas officials." -- HAWAII has also surpassed its 2016 total. (Imagine if the candidates had to go campaign there!) HERE'S ANOTHER RECORD: THE DOW has had its worst week since March. Bloomberg FINAL SWINGS … DEMS IN PA … THE BIDEN CAMPAIGN'S @thematthill: "NEWS >> @JoeBiden, @DrBiden, @KamalaHarris, and @DouglasEmhoff will barnstorm PENNSYLVANIA the day before the election, fanning out across all four corners of the state to get out the vote." -- TONIGHT, JILL BIDEN will rally with teachers and union members in Montgomery County, Pa., at Upper Moreland High School, where she was class of 1969. -- HARRIS IN GEORGIA ON SUNDAY, per the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Greg Bluestein A GEM FOR JARED, via NYT'S LARA JAKES, MARK LANDLER and JONATHAN MARTIN: "Yousef Al Otaiba, the United Arab Emirates' ambassador to Washington since 2008, has been telling Democrats in the capital that his country's decision to establish diplomatic relations with Israel was not a coup for Mr. Trump but something they 'took off the table' for Mr. Biden, according to senior Democrats who have spoken with him." Good Thursday afternoon. TYPO: We misstated the name of Speaker NANCY PELOSI'S new comms director in this morning's Playbook -- it's HENRY CONNELLY. He deserves better! Apologies. | | A message from the Partnership for America's Health Care Future: Lowering costs is voters' highest priority when it comes to health care, but the public option could force the average worker to pay $2,500 a year more in payroll taxes in addition to the cost of their current coverage. Get the facts. | | | BIG RONAN FARROW INVESTIGATION -- "How a C.I.A. Coverup Targeted a Whistle-blower: When a Justice Department lawyer exposed the agency's secret role in drug cases, leadership in the intelligence community retaliated." New Yorker DEMOCRACY STRESS TEST -- "Trump and Biden teams prep for once-outlandish election standoffs," by Anita Kumar: "The 2020 election has come to this. Lawyers for Donald Trump and Joe Biden are poring over arcane federal law to prepare for the possibility that a close or contested election might trigger two little-understood and barely tested scenarios. "First, there's the chance that officials within a closely contested state might send two different results to Congress, one giving Trump the win, the other giving Biden the win. It's a scenario that almost happened in Florida in 2000, and one that would leave the country without an obvious path to determine who won the state … Second, there's the chance that the House of Representatives has to step in if no candidate clears the 270 electoral-vote threshold." POLITICO -- RON SUSKIND in the NYT: "The Day After Election Day: Current and former Trump administration officials are worried about what might happen on Nov. 4." ELECTION THREATS -- "'It's getting really bad': Fake threats trigger fear for Spanish-speaking Trump backers," by the Miami Herald's Ana Ceballos and Bianca Padró Ocasio: "The latest example is an anonymous message that emerged in WhatsApp chats this week that threatens Spanish-speaking supporters of President Donald Trump. … The threat closely mirrors false, often racist and anti-Semitic, narratives peddled in local Spanish media where some hosts and political pundits have suggested a vote for former Vice President Joe Biden would mean supporting a violent takeover of the country. "Alternatively, recent intimidating messages suggest Trump supporters will become the target of crimes by an anonymous group if the president loses and refuses to concede." Miami Herald DISINFORMATION DIGEST -- "The unseen machine pushing Trump's social media megaphone into overdrive," by WaPo's Elizabeth Dwoskin and Craig Timberg: "Trump's singular ability to spread his messages, often disseminating false or unsubstantiated information, comes from his prominence as president and the relentless clip of his tweeting to his 87 million followers. He is also aided by a vital feedback loop — often discussed but poorly understood — among the president, high-profile influencers and rank-and-file followers that both push messages in his direction and promote every online utterance. "His feedback loop, according to several new and forthcoming studies, has become a leading threat to the integrity of political debate in the United States … A study released Thursday by the Election Integrity Partnership, a consortium of misinformation researchers, found that just 20 conservative, pro-Trump Twitter accounts — including the president's own @realDonaldTrump — were the original source of one-fifth of retweets pushing misleading narratives about voting." The study | | | | A NEWSLETTER FOCUSED ON GLOBAL HEALTH: At a high-stakes moment when global health has become a household concern, it is pivotal to keep up with the politics and policy creating change. Global Pulse connects leaders, policymakers, and advocates to the people and politics driving global health. Join the conversation and subscribe today for this new weekly newsletter. | | | | | WHO'S VOTING -- "2016 Nonvoters, a Key Prize for Biden and Trump, Turn Out in Droves," by NYT's Trip Gabriel in Greensburg, Pa.: "Mr. Trump is attracting tens of thousands of voters … who sat out 2016 in Pennsylvania. Around 24 percent of the 424,000 registered Republicans who have cast early mail-in votes in the state did not vote four years ago, according to TargetSmart, a Democratic elections data firm. "But before the Trump campaign takes a victory lap, the same data analysis shows that in Pennsylvania — where at least 1.9 million voters had returned ballots as of Thursday — Democrats are keeping pace. About one in four of the 1.3 million registered Democrats who have voted did not vote in 2016. … The trends playing out in Pennsylvania are seen across 14 battleground states, where more than 10 million people who didn't vote in 2016 have already cast ballots this year, making up 25 percent of the early vote in those states." NYT -- "Why Younger Americans Don't Vote More Often (*No, It's Not Apathy)," by FiveThirtyEight's Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux, Jasmine Mithani and Laura Bronner: "According to our new survey with Ipsos of more than 8,000 Americans, people between 18 and 34 are less likely to have faith in our political system. But when we asked why they hadn't voted in the past, we found that younger people weren't more likely than older people to say they didn't vote because they think the system is too broken to be fixed by voting, or because all the candidates are the same, or because they don't believe in voting. "That cynicism doesn't seem to be motivating them to sit on the sidelines during elections. Instead, younger people are much more likely than older people to report that they or members of their household have experienced barriers to voting, which suggests that they may genuinely find it more difficult to cast a ballot." THE LEFT'S DARK MONEY -- "'Pop-up' super PACs meddle in key races and hide donors from voters," by the Center for Responsive Politics' Karl Evers-Hillstrom: "Emboldened by ancient disclosure rules, two of these 'pop-up' super PACs are attempting to boost support for Libertarian Senate candidates to siphon off votes from Republican incumbents. … "[A] brand new super PAC called Liberty SC spent more than $1 million to attack Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) with mailers and TV ads … In Kentucky, Democrats are making an apparent attempt to boost Libertarian Senate candidate Brad Barron to pull away votes from Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.)." OpenSecrets BATTLE FOR THE SENATE -- "McConnell-aligned super PAC injecting millions into Michigan Senate race," by Burgess Everett ON THE GROUND -- "Pandemic, Protests and Economy Are on Voters' Minds in Key Counties," by WSJ's Madeleine Ngo and Eliza Collins: "Ahead of the 2020 election, The Wall Street Journal interviewed voters in key counties in 10 battleground states in search of trends that could help us understand what was happening in the presidential race. In a polarized political environment, many people said they had decided who to vote for months—or in some cases years—before Nov. 3. "Whether they made up their minds recently or saw their choices cemented by the events of this year, voters named the economy, racial justice, the coronavirus pandemic, trade and climate change among the things they cared most about." WSJ SWING-STATE DISPATCH -- "In Michigan, a Suburban County That Flipped Blue Isn't Looking Back," by NYT's Kathleen Gray in Waterford, Mich.: "As President Trump prepares to campaign on Friday at an airport hangar in Waterford, a city in Oakland County northwest of Detroit, he'll find the place very much changed from the last time he visited there for a rally five weeks before the 2016 election. … "But now Oakland County, which was solidly red 12 years ago, is solidly blue, becoming a prime example of the changes that are taking place in many of the nation's suburbs. This year, voters in this suburban area outside Detroit are poised to elect its first Democratic county executive: Dave Coulter, a former teacher and public relations executive who began his political career in 2003 when the county was solidly Republican." NYT | | | | SUBSCRIBE TO TRANSITION PLAYBOOK: We're excited to launch a newsletter written for insiders that will track the appointments, the people, and the power centers of the next administration. Both Team Biden and Team Trump have been working behind the scenes for months vetting potential nominees and drafting policy agendas. Transition Playbook takes you inside those preparations, personnel decisions, and policy deliberations. Don't miss out, subscribe today. | | | | | AFTERNOON READ -- "Inside the Democrats' New Plan to Win Texas—by Targeting Its Reddest Areas," by Will Ford in POLITICO Magazine: "If they can boost Democratic support in places like Odessa just slightly, then, together with the unprecedented early vote surge in cities, Democrats think they might finally get enough votes to flip the state. … [L]ocal organizers largely hope to do this by increasing turnout in Hispanic communities, as well as by convincing [Beto] O'Rourke voters who backed President Donald Trump in 2016 to vote Democratic again. … "For many in rural Texas, it's the first time they've seen this level of coordination run through the state party between local, state, and national races. … But some party leaders think Democrats are still losing the messaging game to Republicans too dramatically in red districts." POLITICO Magazine MANEUVERING FOR 2021 … OR 2024? -- "National security adviser O'Brien jockeys for future spot in a second Trump administration," by NBC's Carol Lee and Courtney Kube: "O'Brien has spent months laying the groundwork for an elevated role in a second term. Officials have said since the summer that Trump has made it clear that [Defense Secretary Mark] Esper will be out after the election, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo isn't expected to remain in the administration for another full term. "But O'Brien has signaled that he intends to remain a fixture in Republican circles even if Trump loses Tuesday, telling some confidants that he might seek public office himself, including perhaps the presidency." NBC COVID IMPACT -- "Why Blue Places Have Been Hit Harder Economically Than Red Ones," by The Upshot's Jed Kolko: "The coronavirus recession has been more severe in Democratic-leaning places than in Republican-leaning ones. Blue states like Massachusetts and California have had steeper job losses, higher unemployment and bigger drops in job postings than red states like Utah and Missouri. … "The partisan jobs gap has been fairly consistent throughout the pandemic. Employment in blue states fell more in the first two months, and the cumulative employment decline has remained significantly worse in blue states than in red states since June. … The consistency of the partisan jobs gap contrasts with a shifting pattern of infections and deaths. … Across all industries, 57 percent of employed people live in counties that Hillary Clinton won in 2016." NYT THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION -- "Trump's food box letters create problems in run-up to election," by Helena Bottemiller Evich: "Food banks, schools and other nonprofits serving needy families during the pandemic are expending considerable resources in the final days of the election to remove or explain letters from President Donald Trump that are now required in millions of government food aid boxes. "The USDA's $4 billion Farmers to Families Food Box Program began requiring that all boxes include a self-praising letter from the president, in both English and Spanish, a month ago — setting off a rash of criticism that Trump is leveraging taxpayer resources to bolster his reelection campaign. "But as election day nears, nonprofits distributing the boxes are becoming increasingly worried about unwittingly engaging in political activity, according to interviews with more than two dozen people involved in the program. They're ramping up efforts to remove the letters — and some are adding letters of their own explaining that the boxes are unrelated to the campaign." -- "How Trump learned to embrace the executive order, which he once called an 'easy way out,'" by WaPo's Anne Gearan: "Trump's 193 orders to date exceed the numbers for other recent presidents: Barack Obama published 147 executive orders in his first term, George W. Bush 171 and Bill Clinton 128. "But presidential scholars said the most notable difference is Trump's eagerness to embrace a tool that most presidents have treated more as a last resort — stretching the boundaries of executive authority in ways likely to outlast him, whether through policies that endure or greater leeway for future presidents to deploy executive power. … Trump's orders stand out in both style and substance. Their populist flair, showmanship and hyperbole echo the president's public speaking style, and recent orders have come with lengthy, sometimes first-person preambles boasting of Trump's accomplishments in office." WaPo MEDIAWATCH -- Courtney Rozen will cover the White House for Bloomberg Industry Group, where she's currently a transportation reporter. Talking Biz News TRANSITION -- Steve Pearson is now director of development at Surgo Foundation. He most recently was senior director of development and partnerships at the ONE Campaign. | | | | A message from the Partnership for America's Health Care Future:   The public option could raise your taxes by an average of $2,500/year in addition to the cost of your current health coverage and care. 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