STATES OF PLAY — The 2024 election results might have upended Washington, but they barely budged the political dynamics in state capitals across the country. Republicans controlled 55 percent of the 7,000-plus state legislative seats going into Election Day, and they’re poised to hold almost exactly that — 55.25 percent — when legislatures gavel in next year. That’s a shift of only about 50 seats – far below the average of 195 over the past two decades, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. But a swing of just one or two seats can remake the prospects for enacting controversial policy changes like abortion protections, private school vouchers or renewable energy projects. Or it could be the difference between a standard legislative majority and a supermajority that can override the vetoes of a governor. As a result, there were some seemingly minor shifts that will have a major impact on how policymaking plays out in statehouses over the next two years. Republicans scored the most clear-cut victories on Election Day, dislodging Democratic trifectas in Michigan and Minnesota. Democrats had touted the bold, progressive agendas enacted by lawmakers and governors in those states as potential blueprints for the rest of the country, but voters dealt a serious blow to those ambitions at the ballot box. Michigan Republicans flipped four state House seats, giving them a six-seat advantage. That will empower them to hit the brakes on the policy goals of Gov. Gretchen Whitmer – widely seen as a potential 2028 presidential contender -- and the Democratic-controlled state Senate. Exact control of the Minnesota House remains up in the air — the results led to an even split, with each party controlling 67 seats. But Republicans are contesting the outcomes in two races, and seemingly have plausible arguments for why the results might be challenged. Whatever happens, the disappointing results for Democrats were a further blow to Gov. Tim Walz, who enjoyed a stratospheric rise over the summer to become the (doomed) vice presidential nominee. Republicans also made big gains in some Northeastern states. In New Hampshire, for example, they expanded majorities in both chambers, picking up two seats in the 24-member Senate and 25 seats in the chaotic 400-member House (although there were 11 vacancies heading into Election Day). Perhaps the most surprising gains for Republicans came in deep-blue Vermont, which accounted for close to half of all GOP state legislative gains across the nation. Republicans gained 28 seats across both chambers, significantly eroding Democratic majorities and strengthening the hand of popular GOP Gov. Phil Scott, who was elected to a fifth term by a landslide margin and campaigned heavily on behalf of Republicans in the state legislature. For Democrats, the party’s biggest victory was arguably not winning a chamber but rather holding the Pennsylvania state House — an accomplishment that speaks to the bruising night Democrats in state legislatures faced throughout the country. Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro will continue to do business with a divided legislature: Democrats control the House and Republicans manage the Senate. Democrats are also celebrating picking up 14 seats in Wisconsin, thanks to new maps that give them hope they’ll be able to flip the legislature in the near future. New maps in Montana also helped Democrats gain nine seats in the state House and two seats in the state Senate, taking away Republicans' supermajority. And Democrats broke the GOP’s supermajority in the North Carolina state Assembly, taking away Republican power to override the governor's vetoes. That will spare Democratic Governor-elect Josh Stein from the treatment received by his predecessor, Roy Cooper: Republicans overturned all 11 of Cooper’s vetoes in his final year in office. Yet those modest successes were tempered by disappointments elsewhere. Before the election, Democrats were optimistic about their chances in purple states like Arizona, where Democrats believed this cycle was their best shot at flipping the Legislature in years. But Democrats ended up losing seats in both chambers in the state. Another disappointment for Democrats was Idaho, where the party bragged about recruiting a candidate to run in every district for the first time in at least 30 years, believing they had an opportunity to bring over voters alienated by the rightward turn of the GOP. Instead, they lost seats in both chambers, and now will control just 15 out of 105 legislative seats. But there’s always next year. Just two months after the 2024 election cycle ended, special elections are set for two Virginia seats in early January that could determine if Democrats maintain their majority in Richmond. Both races are unfolding in Loudoun County, located right outside of Washington, which has been a safe zone for Democrats. But the suburban county shifted toward Trump in the presidential race, providing one of the early warning signs for Democrats that Election Night would not go their way. Those races will set the tone for when the entire state House is up for reelection in November. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s authors at pdemko@politico.com and lcrampton@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @pauldemko and @liz_crampton.
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