| | | | |  | | By Robbie Gramer, Eric Bazail-Eimil and Nahal Toosi | |  Assad’s downfall was met with unbridled joy and relief among Syrians and Syria’s expatriate community. | Amir Levy/Getty Images | With help from Phelim Kine, Paul McLeary, Mia McCarthy and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric Can a terrorist group change its ways? That’s the question top national security officials are pondering as they take stock of the Islamist insurgent group that led the overthrow of BASHAR AL-ASSAD’s regime in Syria. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s toppling of Assad dealt a major blow to Iran and Russia, who propped up the Assad regime for their own geopolitical gains. But HTS, led by ABU MOHAMMED AL-GOLANI, is also a U.S.-designated terror organization. Al-Golani was linked with al Qaeda for years, but cut ties with al Qaeda and denounced the group in 2016. Since then, he’s been on a campaign to rebrand himself and HTS, the umbrella organization of formerly fractured militant groups, as a moderate force to oppose Assad. There’s a furious debate playing out in Washington over what to make of HTS, according to four current and former U.S. officials familiar with the discussions, all of whom were granted anonymity to discuss internal policy deliberations. “There is a huge scramble to see if, and how, and when we can delist HTS,” said one of the current officials. A president could decide outright to strike an organization from the list of U.S. foreign terrorist organizations, or FTOs, as U.S. law allows the secretary of state to revoke a designation at any time. But such a decision often only comes after lengthy internal deliberations among national security officials, to make no mention of the fraught politics of a move: No president wants to be seen as giving a free pass to terrorists by lifting its FTO designation prematurely. No one in Washington is mourning the downfall of Assad, a brutal dictator implicated in widespread atrocities and war crimes, nor the major setbacks his downfall means for Iran and Russia. But they’re also wondering whether al-Golani is the real moderate transitional leader he says he is, or a wolf in rebranded sheep’s clothing. Early signs are reassuring. HTS announced It is cooperating with Syria’s prime minister, MOHAMMED GHAZI JALALI, to form a transitional government in what is (so far) a relatively peaceful transition since Assad’s ouster. The group also declared amnesty for all Syrian conscript soldiers and reservists and promised it wouldn’t tell women how to dress. But early signs aren’t everything. “Lots of groups say the right thing as they come into power because they’re concerned that their hold on power is fragile and then once they consolidate power they focus on implementing their ideology,” said GABRIEL NORONHA, a former Trump administration official who worked on Middle East policy. He’s currently executive director of the Polaris National Security organization. Al-Golani “has to be judged over the course of his career not just what he’s done over the past few months,” said NATHAN SALES, the former top State Department counterterrorism envoy in the Trump administration. “When you look at his resume, it’s a blue-plated terrorist resume.” “We should all be very skeptical of the ability of HTS to deradicalize itself at the moment of victory,” Sales added. Senior Biden administration officials have so far taken a wait-and-see approach, saying they will watch what HTS does to make good on its early promises. Europe appears to be doing the same: “As HTS takes on greater responsibilities, we will need to assess not just their words, but also their actions,” EU spokesperson ANOUAR EL ANOUNI said. Al-Golani and HTS will have a major role in the formation of a new Syrian government, and a U.S. terrorism designation of HTS will affect how a new post-Assad Syria can get out from under Western sanctions. U.S. presidents — and lawmakers — tend to be far more finicky about lifting sanctions than imposing them given the potential political blowback. A president’s ability to lift sanctions also may depend on whether legislation was involved in crafting the penalties and how much that law ties his or her hands. That goes for both Biden and Trump. “The president likely will want to get comfortable with any new regime in Syria before making changes to the U.S. sanctions, in order to maintain the leverage the sanctions provide him and to avoid rewarding any new government with strong ties to terrorist groups,” said DAVID MORTLOCK, a former U.S. official who dealt extensively with sanctions issues.
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Today’s battlespace has no room for miscommunication. At Lockheed Martin, we’re building the strongest communication network possible, no matter where the battle lines are drawn. Defense tech you can count on when every second counts. Learn more. | | | | | SYRIA AFTER ASSAD: Assad’s downfall was met with unbridled joy and relief among Syrians and Syria’s expatriate community. “My happiness and the happiness of 23 million Syrians is indescribable,” said MOUAZ MUSTAFA, head of the Syrian Emergency Task Force advocacy group. “This isn’t just a big wonderful news day for the Syrian people, this is a geopolitical earthquake, this is a new Middle East,” he added, referring to the defeat it represents for Russia and Iran and its proxy forces in the region. At the same time, new details and videos are emerging of the horrors of Assad’s rule as Syria’s rebels frantically work to free detainees from the country’s infamous Sednaya prison. The prison system, nicknamed the “human slaughterhouse,” came to symbolize the brutality of Assad’s rule. Rebel forces are appealing to any former prison guards or Syrian military officials who can help them access all parts of the sprawling and notorious prison complex and can reportedly see more than 100,000 detainees on the prison’s CCTV monitors who they have been so far unable to reach. OFFICIAL MIDDLE EAST TRAVEL: U.S. special envoy ROGER CARSTENS is in Beirut today, State Department spokesperson MATTHEW MILLER told reporters, as the U.S. reups its efforts to find American journalist AUSTIN TICE, who was kidnapped more than a decade ago in Syria. Carstens’ trip comes as the Biden administration telegraphed in the waning days of the Assad regime that the freelancer, who has not been seen in person or in video clips since 2012, was still alive and that the U.S. was working to secure his return to the United States. Carstens is not the only one hitting the road. U.S. national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN is headed to Israel this week to meet with Israeli counterparts for discussions on Syria and Gaza hostage negotiations, among other topics, National Security Council spokesperson SEAN SAVETT said. KOREAN CRISIS OF CONFIDENCE: Korean President YOON SUK YEOL evaded an effort by opposition lawmakers to impeach him over the weekend. But his woes are far from over. As Reuters’ JU-MIN PARK and JOYCE LEE report, the Korean Justice Ministry has blocked Yoon from leaving the country pending their investigation into his efforts to declare martial law in the country last week. And military officials in South Korea are uneasy that Yoon remains commander in chief of the country’s armed forces following the attempt. Yoon has pledged not to step down over the declaration of martial law, leaving his fate in the hands of his political party. COLD COMFORT FOR TAIWAN: Trump’s Sunday nomination of MICHAEL ANTON for director of policy planning at the State Department could be a bad sign for Taipei, our own PHELIM KINE writes in. Anton penned a piece for The Federalist in 2021 titled “Why it’s clearly not in America’s interest to go to war over Taiwan.” In that article Anton declared U.S. policy toward Taiwan a “Cold War relic” and said that there’s “no core American national interest that would compel us to go to war over Taiwan.” And he warned that China’s military might means “there’s no guarantee we could win, or even hold our own” in trying to defend the island. That could put Anton — and potentially Trump — at odds with other senior Trump nominees who are strong Taiwan supporters including MARCO RUBIO, MICHAEL WALTZ and ALEX WONG. Trump twisted the knife later on Sunday in an interview with NBC News in which he touted his “very good relationship” with China’s leader XI JINPING but refused to confirm that he would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion attempt. “I never say because I need to negotiate things,” Trump told NBC’s KRISTEN WELKER. Still, Trump said that he’d prefer Beijing not attack the self-governing island. The Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office, Taiwan’s diplomatic outpost in Washington, declined to comment on Anton and Trump’s comments. It instead told Phelim in a statement that Taiwan would continue to work with the U.S. and other partners for stability in the region.“ IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s global security team: @dave_brown24,@HeidiVogt, @jessicameyers, @RosiePerper, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary,@reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, and @johnnysaks130
| | | |   | | | | | LOTS OF LOVE FOR LANDAU: Meanwhile, Trump’s pick to be deputy secretary of State, former U.S. Ambassador to Mexico CHRISTOPHER LANDAU, is getting a lot of praise from Latin America analysts and even a key head of state in the region. At her morning press conference, Mexican President CLAUDIA SHEINBAUM praised the selection of Landau, saying that he “knows our country very well” and “did a very good job” as ambassador. Latin America analysts made the case that the combination of Rubio and Landau at the State Department could be a strong signal that the Trump administration will boost U.S. attention to the region. BRIAN WINTER, an analyst with the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, wrote on X: “With Rubio, the most Latin America experience ever at the U.S. State Department — and it’s not even close. Wow.” “To my Latin American friends, this is the moment you've wanted. ‘The United States ignores us’ — no longer true,” wrote RYAN BERG, who leads the Americas program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Read: Former Trump official reportedly in the Capitol on Jan. 6 now working with the transition by our own DANIEL LIPPMAN
| | NVIDIA FACES BEIJING PROBE: China announced today that it’s probing chip manufacturer Nvidia for antitrust violations, per CNN’s DAVID GOLDMAN, in a major escalation of the recent tit-for-tat semiconductor sanction war between Washington and Beijing. Chinese state media reported today that the Chinese government believes Nvidia’s purchase of an Israeli networking company, Mellanox, may have violated the country’s anti-monopoly laws. The report did not explain how the merger may have broken Chinese law, and why Beijing had a sudden change of heart after approving the move in 2020. But it follows a series of new export controls between the U.S. and China. Last week, China imposed restrictions on gallium and germanium exports, key minerals in the U.S. supply chain, after the U.S. levied new export restrictions on the sale of high-tech memory chip sales.
| | TRUMP AUKUS GUESSING GAME: Trump’s silence on whether his administration will continue collaborations with Australia and the United Kingdom over nuclear submarines in worrying officials in London and Canberra. As our own STEFAN BOSCIA and CAROLINE HUG report, ministers and government officials in London and Canberra are working to find out how Trump might approach the multibillion-dollar AUKUS pact brokered by the Biden administration when he returns to the White House in January. Some in London hope Trump will continue to back a military project which they argue is an obvious, if unspoken, challenge to China. And support from key Republicans, including Rubio, Waltz and Sen. JIM RISCH (R-Idaho), the top Republican of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, could keep the deal afloat. But the AUKUS pact, which would see the U.S. share technology with its partners to allow both countries to build state-of-the-art nuclear submarines by the 2040s, could conflict with Trump’s vision for an “America First” foreign policy. “If you take America first literally, and people should, then you should not be surprised if a serious American defense official comes and says ‘we have to prioritize construction or repair needs for our own purposes,’” said ALEX GRAY, who served on Trump’s national security council during the first administration.
| | GABBARD AND PATEL ON THE HILL: Trump’s picks to be FBI director and director of national intelligence, former aide KASH PATEL and former Hawaii member of Congress TULSI GABBARD, are on Capitol Hill today courting senators to back their nominations. As our own RACHAEL BADE reports, Syria is on the minds of many when it comes to Gabbard given controversial remarks about Assad in the past. But Gabbard has allies on Capitol Hill from her time in the House and she’s working to address concerns head on. Gabbard had breakfast with Sen. JONI ERNST (R-Iowa) this morning and is expected to meet with key lawmakers on the Senate Intelligence Committee over the next few days. Patel, despite criticism over his handling of a SEAL Team 6 rescue mission in Nigeria in 2020, is not expected to face as much difficulty on the road to confirmation as Gabbard and Trump’s pick to be secretary of Defense, Fox News contributor PETE HEGSETH. Patel met with Sen. JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas) today.
| | U.S., U.N. SLAMS HAITI MASSACRES: The United Nations and the United States sharply condemned a massacre in Haiti’s capital of Port-au-Prince targeted at practitioners of Voodoo. In a statement, United Nations spokesperson STÉPHANE DUJARRIC condemned the massacre on behalf of Secretary General ANTÓNIO GUTERRES, saying that the violent attack in a Port-au-Prince slum that killed 184 people, including children and the elderly, was “horrific.” NSC spokesperson Savett wrote on X that the U.S. is “appalled” by the reports and reiterated the U.S. call for more international support for the Kenya-led multinational security support mission deployed to the country. As The New York Times’ FRANCES ROBLES reports, the attack was believed to have been ordered by gang leader MONEL FELIX in retaliation for the death of his son over the weekend to illness. Felix was apparently led to believe that the death was caused by practitioners of Voodoo. The attack underscores the power that gang leaders continue to have in the country and the limited ability of the multinational support mission to stabilize the country’s capital city.
| | | | — Boeing parted ways with top lobbyist ZIAD OJAKLI last week, our own CAITLIN OPRYSKO, ORIANA PAWLYK and DANIEL LIPPMAN reported on Friday (for Pros!).
| | — ALBERTO NARDELLI, IAN KING and ANDY LIN, BLOOMBERG: Russia’s military found a surprisingly simple way to buy US chips — STUART LAU and EVA HARTOG, POLITICO: Europe’s next top diplomat is ready to be undiplomatic — CHARLES LARRATT-SMITH and JOHN POLGA-HECIMOVICH, Americas Quarterly: How much of a threat is Tren de Aragua in the U.S.?
| | — Henry L. Stimson Center, 9 a.m.: The Arms Trade Treaty at 10 — International Institute for Strategic Studies, 9 a.m.: Europe's missile renaissance: New conventional deterrence options — Hudson Institute, 10 a.m.: India and China in 2025 — Atlantic Council, 11 a.m.: Strategic shifts: Insights from the Commission on the National Defense — Atlantic Council, 2 p.m.: “The Future of Transatlantic Relations," as part of Central Europe Week. — Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission, 2 p.m.: The State of Exception in El Salvador: Taking stock — House Counterterrorism, Law Enforcement, and Intelligence and Transportation and Maritime Security Subcommittees, 2 p.m.: Safeguarding the Homeland from Unmanned Aerial Systems — Wilson Center's Latin America Program, 3 p.m.: A Latin America agenda for a new White House and Congress Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, from whom we deserve liberation. Thanks to our producer, Raymond Rapada, an ally in our quest for freedom.
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When threats come from anywhere, you have to be able to communicate everywhere. Lockheed Martin’s cross-domain connectivity is key to keeping every mission on track. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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