Donald Trump’s plan to tank U.S. climate targets may ultimately spare a burgeoning technology that captures planet-warming pollution from power plants. Only one American power plant currently uses carbon capture technology, which traps greenhouse gas emissions before they enter the atmosphere. But generous tax credits included in Democrats’ 2022 climate law have already unleashed a spate of project announcements. And even if the president-elect repeals national climate targets and associated regulations, utilities will still need to meet corporate, state and local emissions reduction targets, write Carlos Anchondo and Jason Plautz. “Regardless of the fate of these rules, project developers are moving forward with deploying these critical technologies,” said Jessie Stolark with the Carbon Capture Coalition, which advocates for commercial-scale deployment. Another motivating force is the coming surge in demand for electricity, which is expected to quintuple by 2029 due to an massive uptick in AI data centers and large manufacturing facilities. Many utilities are looking for ways to keep fossil fuel power plants online while still reducing planetary pollution, making carbon capture a natural fit. While President Joe Biden has made carbon capture a centerpiece of his plan to tackle climate change — his climate rule for power plants relies heavily on the technology — many environmentalists view it as a red herring. They say it gives fossil fuel companies permission to keep producing (the opposite of what climate scientists say needs to happen to beat back the worst of global warming). They aren’t wrong. Occidental Petroleum CEO Vicki Hollub said last year that the technology “gives our industry a license to continue to operate for the 60, 70, 80 years that I think it’s going to be very much needed.” Still, some utilities are skeptical that the technology is ready for prime time. The utility trade group Edison Electric Institute, along with several of its large members, sued the Biden administration over its power plant rule, in part because they said carbon capture was not mature enough to be the basis for compliance. Several companies that oppose the regulation, however, are still pursuing the technology. Of course Trump 2.0 is likely to throw a major wrench into the picture. Republicans have vowed to repeal the power plant regulation and unwind major parts of Democrats’ climate law, which appropriated billions of dollars to the carbon capture industry. Already, a GOP battle is brewing over whether to claw back clean energy credits. Some Republicans and companies say that would be a mistake: Most recently, the trade group for rural electric cooperatives told Benjamin Storrow that it wants Trump to save the law’s clean energy and carbon capture incentives.
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