Monday, December 9, 2024

NDAA text snubs China trade hawks

Delivered every Monday by 10 a.m., Weekly Trade examines the latest news in global trade politics and policy.
Dec 09, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO Weekly Trade Logo

By Ari Hawkins

U.S. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-La.) attends a press conference on Capitol Hill on December 04, 2024 in Washington, DC.

The National Defense Authorization Act does not include key measures House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said could be included in a package sent to the White House. | Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

QUICK FIX

— Lawmakers were unable to include key China-focused measures as part of the National Defense Authorization Act in a blow to House Speaker Mike Johnson’s agenda.

— President-elect Donald Trump said he “can’t guarantee anything” when asked whether his proposed tariffs would increase prices for American families.

— The U.S.-China Business Council praised Trump’s pick for the next U.S. ambassador to China, David Perdue.

It’s Monday, Dec. 9. Welcome to Morning Trade! Got tips? Suggestions? Want to grab a coffee? Hit us up at: dpalmer@politico.com, gbade@politico.com and ahawkins@politico.com. Follow us on X: @_AriHawkins, @GavinBade and @tradereporter.

 

Billions in spending. Critical foreign aid. Immigration reform. The final weeks of 2024 could bring major policy changes. Inside Congress provides daily insights into how Congressional leaders are navigating these high-stakes issues. Subscribe today.

 
 

Want to receive this newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You’ll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day’s biggest stories

Driving the day

CHINA CARVED OUT: Several measures supported by members of both parties that would crack down on China won’t be included in the National Defense Authorization Act up for a vote this week, according to compromise text released Saturday afternoon.

The snubs include measures to reform the de minimis trade policy that allows duty-free entry of small packages, another that would restrict the flow of U.S. capital into China, and a measure to halt federal contracts for companies partnering with specific Chinese biotech companies, referred to as the BIOSECURE Act.

The exclusion of the measures is a significant blow to their chances in the short term, and a disappointment to China hawks who had hoped lawmakers were nearing a compromise.

It’s also a letdown for House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), who suggested plans to send the White House a China-focused package that includes all three measures by the end of 2024 in a speech at the Hudson Institute over the summer. At this point, staffers say that’s unlikely.

“It is undoubtedly a tough road ahead for all three [measures],” said one person close to discussions, granted anonymity to discuss ongoing negotiations. “There is a bipartisan deal to be had on China issues, even if more modest than initially thought. The political costs of not being willing to deal in this area are too great, so the parties are motivated,” they said.

De minimis in flux: Negotiations over how to reform the so-called loophole have failed to make serious headway in recent weeks, said the person familiar, and another Democratic staffer close to the process.

Competing versions released in both chambers range from cutting out adversaries from de minimis treatment to restricting whole sectors, to taking a firm-by-firm approach, outlined in a bill from Sens. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) and Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) released on Thursday.

Lawmakers remain in discussions to include all three China-focused measures on a continuing resolution that will fund the government until Republicans take over next year. And Johnson signaled in remarks to Morning Trade that the end-of-year target hasn’t changed.

"During the course of negotiations on the annual defense bill, significant progress was made towards achieving consensus on provisions to counter China and strengthen our economic security,” Johnson said in a statement. “That momentum remains and more time is needed to get that important work done with the goal of passage before the end of the year.”

But Democratic staffers are voicing frustration over the pace and perceived commitment of their GOP counterparts over China-focused measures. Some Republican lawmakers are stalling negotiations ahead of their GOP governing trifecta next year, they say.

The Democratic staffer also told Morning Trade the election results have “emboldened [Republicans] away from making a deal.” They said certain GOP lawmakers now believe “there’s no need to negotiate,” despite their narrow majority in the lower chamber.

TARIFF ACTIONS

NO GUARANTEES: President-elect Donald Trump said he “can’t guarantee anything” when asked whether his proposed tariffs would increase prices for American families, in an interview with NBC’s “Meet the Press” that aired Sunday, writes Mia McCarthy.

“I can’t guarantee anything. I can’t guarantee tomorrow,” Trump said, when host Kristen Welker asked if he can guarantee U.S. families won’t pay more under his tariff plan. “But I can say that if you looked at my — just pre-Covid, we had the greatest economy in the history of our country. And I had a lot of tariffs on a lot of different countries, but in particular China.”

Tariffs are paid by the American companies that import products, not the countries that export them. Welker noted in the interview that economists agree that consumers pay higher prices because of tariffs. But Trump responded by saying, “I don’t believe that.”

On Mexico and Canada: Trump also noted that the United States is subsidizing countries like Canada and Mexico. “We shouldn’t be — why are we subsidizing these countries?” he said.

“If we’re going to subsidize them, let them become a state. We’re subsidizing Mexico and we’re subsidizing Canada and we’re subsidizing many countries all over the world,” Trump said.

Cabinet Roulette

INDUSTRY HAILS PERDUE PICK: The U.S.-China Business Council, which represents more than 270 U.S. companies that do business in China, praised Donald Trump’s decision to back former Georgia Sen. David Perdue as the next U.S. ambassador to China.

USCBC President Sean Stein in a statement said that Perdue is a “pragmatic, pro-American business leader and thoughtful advocate for trade with China.”

Quick context: Perdue specialized in finding low-cost manufacturing facilities and labor in Asia, and was an advocate for reducing China’s trade deficit.

But in recent weeks, Perdue has taken pains to display himself as tough on China.

“To protect ourselves, Americans first have to realize the CCP actually is at war with us,” Perdue declared in a 3,000-word essay in the Washington Examiner in September. He also wrote that China aims to “destroy capitalism and democracy.”

That change-up is already raising eyebrows: “He’ll be lucky if he can see [Chinese Foreign Minister] Wang Yi,” a person close to both U.S. and Chinese government officials told Phelim Kine. Even if Perdue adopts a more conciliatory tone in Beijing, “he’s going to have to walk this stuff back and that’s not going to be easy to do,” the person said.

WILL TRUMP’S NEXT USTR BE DEMOTED?: Jamieson Greer’s first big test after being nominated as U.S. trade representative won’t be dealing with foreign nations. It will be persuading Trump to keep him as a member of the Cabinet.

That’s in doubt because Trump has announced that Wall Street financier Howard Lutnick, his nominee to run the Commerce Department, would have “direct responsibility” for USTR.

That reordering of responsibilities would reverse the decades old practice of USTR serving as the president’s top trade adviser and negotiator. A downgrade could diminish the status of the agency that will be key for helping deliver Trump’s tariff and trade proposals.

Doug has more here.

TRADE OVERNIGHT

— Senators float bill to counter China’s mineral export ban, E&E News reports.

— The chair of the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party Chair John Moolenaar sent a letter to the Commerce Department blasing “loopholes” in the latest round of scaled-down export controls.

— TikTok defiant after federal court upholds law to force its sale, POLITICO reports.

— U.S. opens investigation into Spain’s reported port denials of cargo ships carrying arms to Israel, per The Associated Press.

THAT’S ALL FOR MORNING TRADE! See you again soon! In the meantime, drop the team a line: dpalmer@politico.com, gbade@politico.com and ahawkins@politico.com. Follow us @POLITICOPro and @Morning_Trade.

 

Write your own chapter in the new Washington. From the Lame Duck Congress Series to New Administration insights, POLITICO Pro delivers intelligence across 22+ policy areas to help you anticipate and navigate change. Discover how a Pro subscription empowers you. Learn more today.

 
 
 

Follow us on Twitter

Ari Hawkins @_AriHawkins

Doug Palmer @tradereporter

Gavin Bade @GavinBade

Adam Behsudi @ABehsudi

Emily Cadei @emilycadei

 

Follow us

Follow us on Facebook Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Instagram Listen on Apple Podcast
 

To change your alert settings, please log in at https://login.politico.com/?redirect=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.politico.com/settings

This email was sent to edwardlorilla1986.paxforex@blogger.com by: POLITICO, LLC 1000 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, VA, 22209, USA

Unsubscribe | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service

No comments:

Post a Comment

Surprise! MVP revives Smart Money

Competition is heating up in the Philippine e-wallet space ͏ ‌      ͏ ‌      ͏ ‌      ͏ ‌      ͏ ‌      ͏ ‌      ͏ ‌      ͏ ‌     ͏ ...