Wednesday, December 11, 2024

Inside Trump’s game of Senate hardball

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DRIVING THE DAY

NEW JMART — There’s some high internal drama over the Senate Intelligence Committee chairmanship, Jonathan Martin reports this morning: Sen. TOM COTTON (R-Ark.) is poised to seize the gavel after rebuffing suggestions that Sen. JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas) should get it instead as a consolation prize after his failed leader bid — and as an inducement to run again in 2026, with a potential primary challenge likely.

“Likely ensuring Cotton’s ascension to the chair is the raw politics of last month’s Senate Republican leadership race between Cornyn and Sen. JOHN THUNE (R-S.D.). A select rather than standing committee, the intelligence panel’s chair is chosen by the majority leader. And Cotton supported Thune on the private ballot, according to a third Senate Republican, and now Thune is poised to reward him rather than the man he defeated.”

Donald Trump shakes hands with Sen. Katie Britt and Sen. Joni Ernst.

Donald Trump shakes hands with Sens. Katie Britt and Joni Ernst before speaking to the press at the National Republican Senatorial Committee building on June 13, 2024 in Washington. | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

UNDER PRESSURE — Sen. TED CRUZ (R-Texas) met late last month with DONALD TRUMP’s AG pick, MATT GAETZ — then delivered a warning to the president-elect’s team.

Gaetz faced serious hurdles in the Senate, the Texas Republican bluntly relayed. He didn’t have the votes. And Trump’s team certainly got the impression that Cruz — a legal eagle who won several Supreme Court cases as Texas’ solicitor general — didn’t want Gaetz in the role, either, according to people familiar with what he conveyed.

Trump, who had heard similar complaints from other Republicans, got the message: “I don’t think you’ve got a path,” he told Gaetz the next morning, those people said, prompting him to drop out.

That might end up being the last time Trump bows to the concerns of Senate Republicans.

Instead of heeding them, Trump and his allies are now cracking down on them — adopting a new, confrontational approach on nominations, coordinating with outside forces to try to grind senators into submission, lest one failure cascade into another.

Consider what happened to Sen. JONI ERNST (R-Iowa) over PETE HEGSETH’s nomination as Defense secretary. Like Cruz with Gaetz, Ernst told Trump last week that the embattled Fox News personality would have a tough time getting confirmed, our colleague Meridith McGraw reported.

Trump handled things differently this time, publicly throwing his support behind Hegseth while associates blessed a pressure campaign against Ernst — a combat veteran and advocate for sexual assault survivors — that not only included calling her a “RINO” and trolling her on social media, but circulating stories about her divorce records and a (false, we’re told) anecdote that she threatened to personally rally Senate GOP women against Trump if he didn’t withdraw Hegseth.

Less noticed was the Breitbart op-ed by Iowa AG BRENNA BIRD — a close Trump ally — lamenting how “D.C. politicians think they can ignore the voices of their constituents” rather than confirm Trump’s Cabinet. Ernst’s name wasn’t mentioned, but it was a not-so-veiled threat from Trump allies that she could find some MAGA-minded competition in her 2026 primary if she didn’t fall in line.

The goal wasn’t just to pressure Ernst, but to make an example to the rest of the Senate GOP. After all, more controversial picks were about to be following Hegseth down the Capitol halls, from TULSI GABBARD to ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. and KASH PATEL.

The pressure campaign is now expanding, as our colleague Ally Mutnick reports this morning. Louisiana Sen. BILL CASSIDY, “one of four remaining senators who voted to impeach Trump in 2021, just drew a formal primary challenge,” she writes, while “MAGA activist CHARLIE KIRK issued a warning to Sen. MIKE ROUNDS (R-S.D.) for simply saying he had ‘no complaints’ against the current FBI director that Trump wants to oust.”

Inside the Senate, the persuasion has been more diplomatic. Sen. TOM COTTON (R-Ark.), the soon-to-be conference chair, keeps noting that only two of 72 Cabinet nominees since BILL CLINTON have received “no” votes from the president’s own party, while Sen. RON JOHNSON (R-Wis.) suggested to Playbook yesterday that GOP senators owed it to Trump.

“Presidents should be able to staff the administration with people they want — and the default position should be to support the nominees and vote for confirmation,” he told us, adding that “even elected officials do react to public pressure.”

You better believe it: Senators this week have been eagerly tweeting out pictures with Trump’s Cabinet nominees, all smiles and thumbs-ups. The deathwatch atmosphere around Hegseth’s nomination has suddenly dissipated — especially after Ernst put out a statement Monday emphasizing that he deserves a hearing that focuses on “truth, not anonymous sources.”

It’s worth remembering, however, that senators are a special breed. Elected to six-year terms, they relish their independence, and overt pressure campaigns can backfire on some — just ask Trump how the monthslong push to get JOHN McCAIN (R-Ariz.) to undo the Affordable Care Act went.

One Senate Republican told us yesterday that Trump would do well to remember he needs those relationships to make his final term a legislative success: “It might work in this situation [for Hegseth], but long term, it is not in the president’s interest.”

Some of those swing votes are already grumbling. The pressure campaign “seems a little more intense than usual, particularly Republican on Republican, which I don't think is particularly appreciated,” Sen. LISA MURKOWSKI (R-Alaska) told our colleague Joe Gould yesterday, insisting the badgering would not weigh into her confirmation calculations.

Others are insulated from the pressure, like outgoing GOP Leader MITCH McCONNELL, who is in the twilight of his Senate career and doesn’t much care about MAGA world’s wishes. Or Sen. SUSAN COLLINS (R-Maine), who is up for reelection next year but enjoys a unique status in her state. (“I get criticism from the far right and the far left all the time,” she told us. “It’s not new.”)

And if they’re not careful, Murkowski warned, even some strong Trump allies — like Ernst — could go their own way: “Anybody that thinks she's weak,” the Alaskan said, “has another thing coming.”

Related reads: “Debate Over Hegseth’s Fitness Highlights a Gender Divide in the Senate,” by NYT’s Annie Karni … “Gabbard begins meetings with senators, amid scrutiny of Syria views,” by Jewish Insider’s Emily Jacobs and Marc Rod

Good Wednesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels.

 

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CHECKING IT TWICE — Italian PM GIORGIA MELONI is Europe’s most powerful person, per our European brethren. She tops this year’s POLITICO 28 list ranking the top “doers, disrupters and dreamers” on the continent.

PEELING THE LAYERS — “Judge rejects sale of Alex Jones’ Infowars to The Onion in dispute over bankruptcy auction,” by AP’s Dave Collins: “U.S. Bankruptcy Judge CHRISTOPHER LOPEZ’s decision means [ALEX] JONES can stay at Infowars. … At the end of a lengthy two-day hearing in a Texas courtroom, Lopez criticized the auction process as flawed and said the outcome ‘left a lot of money on the table’ for families of victims of the 2012 Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting.”

CEO SHOOTER LATEST — “CEO shooting suspect Luigi Mangione denied bail as he fights extradition to New York,” WaPo … “UnitedHealthcare C.E.O. Laid to Rest as Family Mourns Privately,” by NYT’s Amy Julia Harris and Ernesto Londoño … “This Theory Could Explain the Reaction to the UnitedHealthcare Killer,” by Joshua Zeitz for POLITICO Magazine

 

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WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

On the Hill

The Senate is in. Capitol Police Chief J. THOMAS MANGER will testify on oversight of the Capitol Police before the Senate Rules Committee at 2:45 p.m.

The House will meet at 10 a.m. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN will testify on the Afghanistan withdrawal before the House Foreign Affairs Committee at 10 a.m.

3 things to watch …

  1. One of many issues standing in the way of a year-ending stopgap spending deal is a bipartisan accord on disaster aid funding. The picture is starting to get clearer, with appropriators now closing in on a figure in the high eight digits — “somewhere south” of the roughly $100 billion White House but “not too far south,” as Sen. THOM TILLIS (R-N.C.) put it to Katherine Tully-McManus and Jennifer Scholtes. In terms of the date, it’s looking more and more like mid-March. Now they just have to write it all down, which means, yes, you’ll probably be scouring legislative text on Sunday night.
  2. It’s looking like a clean sweep: Democratic Reps. RAUL GRIJALVA (Ariz.) and JERRY NADLER (N.Y.) dropped their bids to lead House committees in the face of internal challenges from younger members. Now it appears that DAVID SCOTT’s bid to remain atop Agriculture Committee Democrats is destined to fail. Meredith Lee Hill reports Democratic believe Scott (Ga.) will lose to either JIM COSTA (Calif.) or ANGIE CRAIG (Minn.) if he goes through with a Monday steering committee vote. It’s “a sign of just how strongly the party wants to turn the page on an older generation of leaders,” she writes, quoting a House Dem aide: “It’s in the air. People want heads to roll on our side.”
  3. Feels like JASON SMITH might be the loneliest man on Capitol Hill. The House Ways and Means chair has been the most aggressive voice questioning the two-track reconciliation approach favored by Senate GOP leaders. As Benjamin Guggenheim and Jordain Carney report, top House Republicans agree with him that a single, jam-packed, tax-focused bill would be easiest. But consider what Speaker MIKE JOHNSON had to say on Fox News last night: “There probably will be at least two reconciliation packages. So the determination right now, is where does the tax piece fit in?” 

At the White House

President JOE BIDEN and first lady JILL BIDEN will deliver remarks and host the first-ever White House Conference on Women’s Health Research at 11:30 a.m. In the afternoon, Biden will receive the President’s Daily Brief.

 

REGISTER NOW: As the 118th Congress ends, major decisions loom, including healthcare appropriations. Key focus: site neutrality. Can aligning hospital and clinic costs cut federal spending, reflect physician costs, and lower patient expenses? Join policymakers and providers to discuss.

 
 
PLAYBOOK READS

TRANSITION LENSES

Kimberly Guilfoyle talks at an American Conservative Union podium pointing out with both her hands.

Kimberly Guilfoyle addresses the Conservative Political Action Conference being held in the Hyatt Regency on February 26, 2021, in Orlando, Florida. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images

THE NAME GAME — Trump dropped a fresh slate of nominations to key posts in his second administration yesterday, filling out a handful of ambassadorships and policy-centric roles. The name with the highest intrigue, though, was the selection of KIMBERLY GUILFOYLE to be ambassador to Greece, which was scooped by CBS’ Jennifer Jacobs and Fin Gómez.

It’s a notable appointment given that Guilfoyle, a former Fox News host, and DONALD TRUMP JR. have been engaged since 2020. But earlier in the afternoon on Tuesday, Page Six reported that Trump Jr. and Guilfoyle had split and that “Trump Jr. has moved on with Palm Beach socialite BETTINA ANDERSON.”

The latest nominations:

  • So long, Lina: Despite receiving praise from some Republicans for her tenure, FTC Chair LINA KHAN won’t be sticking around for the Trump administration. Trump tapped FTC Commissioner ANDREW FERGUSON to head the agency. More from John Hendel 
  • No, not that RonJohn: Former Ambassador to El Salvador RONALD JOHNSON is Trump’s pick to be ambassador to Mexico. “Johnson, a Green Beret who spent more than 20 years at the Central Intelligence Agency before a diplomatic posting in San Salvador, would bring significant foreign policy expertise to one of the most important bilateral diplomatic portfolios in the U.S. government,” Eric Bazail-Eimil writes.
  • To the Barrack: Trump announced private equity executive TOM BARRACK to serve as U.S. ambassador to Turkey. Barrack is a longtime ally of Trump throughout his political career, but may face a rocky road to confirmation, Eric notes.
  • North Carolina Rep. DAN BISHOP will be Trump’s deputy director at OMB. Bishop lost his North Carolina AG bid in November. Also headed to OMB is conservative activist ED MARTIN, who will be chief of staff. … JACOB HELBERG, a China hawk, will be the State Department’s top economic policy and trade official.

More top reads:

  • The view from Wall Street: “These days, it seems that everyone who is anybody on Wall Street — to say nothing of a whole lot of nobodies — is amped up for Mr. Trump’s return to the Oval Office,” NYT’s Rob Copeland reports. “[D]espite mixed opinions on Mr. Trump’s proposed policies overall, they see in his administration the greatest possibility for a boon to the business world in a generation or more.”
  • Musk read: “Musk’s politics hadn’t seeped into Tesla. Then he axed its eco car of the future,” by WaPo’s Pranshu Verma, Elizabeth Dwoskin, Faiz Siddiqui and Shannon Osaka: “The internal deliberations over the so-called Tesla Model 2, which have not previously been reported, reflect what sources close to [ELON] MUSK describe as a significant shift in the billionaire’s attitude toward climate change.”
  • Man bites DOGE: Previewing what is likely to be a major battle in the incoming administration, the American Federation of Government Employees said assertions that staffers are abusing work-from-home flexibility are serving as cover for Republican lawmakers to try to tear down the government, Kevin Bogardus reports.
  • Top-ed: JOHN BOLTON comes out swinging in WSJ: “Kash Patel Doesn’t Belong at the FBI”

THE WHITE HOUSE

President Joe Biden speaks.

President Joe Biden speaks about his administration's economic playbook and the future of the American economy at the Brookings Institution in Washington, Dec. 10, 2024. | Susan Walsh/AP

BIDEN BITES BACK, PART I — The White House delivered a blow to lawmakers yesterday, saying that the president “would veto a bipartisan measure creating 66 new federal judicial seats over the next three presidential administrations, stating that the measure the House is set to take up this week is ‘unnecessary to the efficient and effective administration of justice,’” NYT’s Carl Hulse reports.

BIDEN BITES BACK, PART II — Seeming to respond to Democratic grumbling that he had disappeared from the public stage, Biden delivered his sharpest and most extensive criticism of Trump since the November election at the Brookings Institution yesterday, Adam Cancryn reports. Biden’s attacks on his successor’s economic agenda grew more direct as he got deeper into the nearly 40-minute speech, he writes, warning that Trump’s plans would reverse the progress he’d made over the last four years toward strengthening the working class.

CONGRESS

SO LONG, SENATOR — Sen. BERNIE SANDERS, the onetime presidential candidate and leader of the progressive movement in the U.S. for decades, said his term starting in January would likely be his last in an interview with our colleague Daniel Payne: “I’m 83 now. I’ll be 89 when I get out of here. You can do the figuring. I don’t know, but I would assume, probably, yes.”

THE KOSA’S NOT CLEAR — Donald Trump Jr. wants House Republicans to move on the Kids Online Safety Act “ASAP.” But Speaker Mike Johnson disagrees. “Johnson says he remains concerned that the Senate-passed bill, the first serious attempt by Congress to force social media companies to do more to protect kids online, ‘might lead to further censorship by the government of valid conservative voices’ and that more negotiation was needed,” Ruth Reader reports.

 

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AMERICA AND THE WORLD

SYRIA LATEST — Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN said the U.S. would “recognize and fully support” a Syrian government that results from an inclusive and transparent transition process, per WaPo, “outlining a first set of principles regarding the Biden administration’s hopes to influence discussions over Syria’s future after the ouster of President BASHAR AL-ASSAD.”

On the ground: “Israel, Seeing an Opportunity, Demolishes Syria’s Military Assets,” by NYT’s Jack Nicas: “By Tuesday, at least 350 airstrikes had leveled military assets across Syria. … Israeli officials said they were destroying weapons and military facilities to keep them out of the hands of Islamist extremists.”

WAR IN UKRAINE — With the future of aid to Ukraine under Trump still in question, the Biden administration “transferred $20 billion to Ukraine on Tuesday, providing an urgently needed economic lifeline in the form of a loan that will be repaid using interest earned from Russia’s frozen central bank assets,” NYT’s Alan Rappeport reports.

Where the twain shall meet: “Syrian rebels had help from Ukraine in humiliating Russia,” by WaPo’s David Ignatius

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

Donald Trump listens.

President-elect Donald Trump listens at the U.S.-Mexico border on Aug. 22, south of Sierra Vista, Arizona. | Rebecca Noble/Getty Images

IMMIGRATION FILES — With a crackdown on immigration toward the top of Trump’s agenda, governors across the country are expecting to be right back on the frontlines of the fight. But unlike Trump’s first stint in the Oval Office, Democratic governors are walking a tighter rope — at least for now.

“In interviews, 11 Democratic governors, governors-elect and candidates for the office often expressed defiance toward Mr. Trump’s expected immigration crackdown — but were also strikingly willing to highlight areas of potential cooperation,” NYT’s Nick Corasaniti, Katie Glueck and Reid Epstein report. The “measured approach” from the governors “reflects the political and logistical complexities” they face on the issue but also “a tacit acknowledgment that Mr. Trump’s election signaled a desire among voters for tougher positions on immigration.”

Related read: “New York to Close Giant Family Shelter to Protect Migrants From Trump,” by NYT’s Luis Ferré-Sadurní

More top reads:

  • Dreamers in 19 states will be “temporarily blocked from getting health insurance through the Affordable Care Act’s public marketplace, a federal judge has ruled,” AP’s John Hanna and Jack Dura write.
  • The Biden administration won a major victory in its bid to combat high grocery prices after a federal judge in a district court in Oregon paused a merger of Kroger and Albertsons, the nation’s two largest traditional grocery store chains, Marcia Brown writes.

JUDICIARY SQUARE

THE TRUMP TRIALS RIDE AGAIN? — Manhattan DA ALVIN BRAGG says Trump’s imminent return to the presidency is not a reason to throw out the 34-count conviction that jurors delivered in the hush money case earlier this year, Josh Gerstein and Kyle Cheney write. “Bragg conceded in a court filing that Trump cannot be sentenced while he is president. But he said Justice JUAN MERCHAN has a variety of options to put the case on hold during Trump’s second term — and then issue a sentence after he leaves office in January 2029.”

Related reads: “Tanya Chutkan nearly presided over Donald Trump’s trial. Now her Jan. 6 defendants await his pardon,” by Kyle … “Trump lawyers and aide hit with 10 additional felony charges in Wisconsin over 2020 fake electors,” by AP’s Scott Bauer

SCOTUS WATCH — “Supreme Court Poised to Curb Scope of Environmental Reviews,” by NYT’s Adam Liptak

 

Billions in spending. Critical foreign aid. Immigration reform. The final weeks of 2024 could bring major policy changes. Inside Congress provides daily insights into how Congressional leaders are navigating these high-stakes issues. Subscribe today.

 
 
PLAYBOOKERS

Kyrsten Sinema is bringing back quiet quitting.

Mitch McConnell took a spill yesterday that resulted in a cut to the face and sprained wrist.

Louis DeJoy tried out a novel approach to scrutinizing questions.

Bari Weiss’ media startup seems to be booming.

HOT JOB — POLITICO is hiring a VP of comms: “This role is about bold approaches to remind our audience what sets us apart.”

PLAYBOOK REAL ESTATE CORNER — “Did Howard Lutnick Just Buy Bret Baier’s D.C. Mansion?” by Curbed’s Kim Velsey: “The 16,250-square-foot French-château-style affair at 2400 Foxhall Road in the Berkley neighborhood was listed last October for $31.9 million but dropped to $28.995 at the beginning of the year. … If the house sells at the current asking price, it will break the $24.56 million Washington record, set in 2007.”

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Michelle Barlow Richardson is joining Elevate Government Affairs as EVP. She previously was chief of staff for Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.).

OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at the Value In Electing Women PAC holiday party honoring outgoing Chairs Kay Granger (R-Texas) and Cathy McMorris-Rodgers (R-Wash.) at the Capitol Hill Club yesterday: Sens. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) and Deb Fischer (R-Neb.), Reps. Virginia Foxx (R-N.C.), Lisa McClain (R-Mich.), Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), Tom Emmer (R-Minn.), Stephanie Bice (R-Okla.), Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa), Beth Van Duyne (R-Texas), Monica de la Cruz (R-Texas), Michelle Fischbach (R-Minn.), Young Kim (R-Calif.), Claudia Tenney (R-N.Y.), Kat Cammack (R-Fla.), Julia Letlow (R-La.) and Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa), Debbie Marshall, Blair Larkins, Raley Wright, Laura Haines, Lindley Sherer, Aiken Hackett, Maria Spencer, Amy Tenhouse, Kathryn Lehman, Julie Conway, Carol Fowler, Ashley Cavossa, Ryan Eaton, Val Nelson, Emily Hytha and Pam Stevens.

The Wall Street Journal hosted an event, “U.S.- Japan: Stability, Technology, and Alliances Post-Elections,” at the Four Seasons D.C. yesterday examining the relationship between two important allies and how technology plays a role in the security and stability of today’s geopolitical environment. SPOTTED: Almar Latour, Japanese Ambassador Shigeo Yamada, U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel, Baden Firth and Vito Mabrucco.

— SPOTTED at the joint Thorn Run Partners-LKQ holiday party in Navy Yard yesterday: Reps. Trent Kelly (R-Miss.), William Timmons (R-S.C.), Jeff Duncan (R-S.C.), Russell Fry (R-S.C.), David Kustoff (R-Tenn.), Gabe Amo (D-R.I.), Morgan McGarvey (D-Ky.) and Bill Foster (D-Ill.), Donna Christian-Christensen, Veronica Charles, Lee Friedman, Patrick Deitz, Rosemary Garza, Helen Milby, Ainsley Gill, John Lee, Jordan Cox, Jackie Bossman, Alley Adcock, Rick Erkel, Nathan Robinson, Ian Mussleman, Tyler Threadgill, Andy Rosenberg and Chris Lamond.

— SPOTTED at a retirement celebration for Ron Kampeas, the longtime D.C. bureau chief of Jewish Telegraphic Agency, hosted by Matt Dorf and Steve Rabinowitz: Jeremy Ben-Ami, Amy Spitalnick, Samantha Kupferman, Halie Soifer, Aaron Keyak, Matt Nosanchuk, Jim Gerstein, Lisa Hostein, Ben Sales, Arno Rosenfeld and Marc Rod.

TRANSITIONS — Elizabeth Wilkins will be the next president and CEO of the Roosevelt Institute. She previously was director of policy planning and chief of staff to FTC Chair Lina Khan.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Gabe Amo (D-R.I.) … Kara Swisher … PBS’ Margaret Hoover … SiriusXM’s Julie Mason John Kerry … WaPo’s Marianne LeVine, Elizabeth Dwoskin and Annabelle Timsit … DOJ’s Perry RosenMolly Abboud Helen RobinsJohn Feehery of EFB Advocacy … Emily BuchananMegan Capiak Michael Allen of Beacon Global Strategies … Elizabeth SpiersBenjamin Tribbett … Atlantic Council’s William WechslerMaya Krishna-RogersJosh Jaye of the Tax Foundation … Len KhodorkovskyHaydn Welch … Impactual’s Ashley SpillanePeter True … former Sen. Max Baucus (D-Mont.) … Rebecca Brocato Phillip Escoriaza … POLITICO’s Sarah Morgan and Aaron AlbrightGideon Resnick … HHS’ Brian ReichWill Wechsler of the Atlantic Council

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