Wednesday, December 11, 2024

How long can the Trump honeymoon last?

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POLITICO Playbook PM

By Garrett Ross

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THE CATCH-UP

NEWS FROM THE HOME TEAM — DASHA BURNS, who reported on DONALD TRUMP’s 2024 campaign as one of NBC’s top national political correspondents, is joining POLITICO as White House bureau chief. From Global EIC John Harris’ announcement: “After eight years at NBC that saw her rise from associate producer to one of the network's top political correspondents, Dasha told us that she's invigorated by POLITICO's mission and eager to be part of our team — to work with the talented reporters and editors who make us the authority on politics and policy, and to help us innovate across platforms in POLITICO's next chapter.”

CEO SHOOTER LATEST — “Police Say Suspect’s Notebook Described Rationale for C.E.O. Killing,” by NYT’s Ashley Southall and Maria Cramer

RALEIGH, NORTH CAROLINA - NOVEMBER 04: Republican presidential nominee, former President Donald Trump dances off stage at the conclusion of a campaign rally at the J.S. Dorton Arena on November 04, 2024 in Raleigh, North Carolina. With one day left before the general election, Trump is campaigning for re-election in the battleground states of North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Donald Trump is riding high as he prepares for a return to the Oval Office. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

THE HONEYMOON BEGINS — To no great surprise, the mood of the electorate seems to be shifting in the transition period as Trump prepares to take the reins from President JOE BIDEN following an election that delivered a stinging rebuke to Democratic power in Washington.

In what will be a major feather in his cap, Trump is slated to be unveiled tomorrow as Time’s “Person of the Year,” our colleague Meridith McGraw scoops, beating out other nine other finalists including KAMALA HARRIS, ELON MUSK, BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, JEROME POWELL and JOE ROGAN. Having won the distinction back in 2016, Trump joins fellow two-term presidents BARACK OBAMA, GEORGE W. BUSH, BILL CLINTON and RONALD REAGAN (among others) as rare two-time recipients.

Now, new polling from CNN offers a window into how voters are feeling with Trump 2.0 loading — but serious questions remain about how long the president-elect can sustain the good-vibe feeling once he’s actually back in power.

The breakdown:

  • Majority rules: 54% believe Trump will “do a good job upon his return to the White House next month” and a similar 55% “approves of how he’s handling the presidential transition so far.”
  • For worse or for better? “Almost 7 in 10 Americans in the new poll think Trump will be able to bring change to the country (68%), though only about half of Americans (48%) say they think it will be change for the better.”
  • Righting the ship? “Most overall still say that things in the country are going badly (61%), but the share who say things are going ‘very badly’ stands at just 15%, the lowest in CNN polling since May 2018. The 38% who say things in the country are going well is the highest since December 2021.”
  • On the issues: Trump’s “strongest marks come on dealing with the economy (with 39% expressing a lot of confidence in him), immigration policy (39%) and the war between Russia and Ukraine (37%).”

INFLATION NATION — And Trump got his first inflation reading since becoming president-elect today, with new data showing the Fed’s fight against inflation with more work to do. “Still, the details of the report probably gave central bank officials enough confidence to cut interest rates at their meeting next week,” NYT’s Jeanna Smialek writes.

“The Consumer Price Index climbed 2.7 percent in the year through November, just slightly faster than the 2.6 percent reading in October. After stripping out volatile food and fuel costs for a better sense of the underlying inflation trend, the pace of price increases was unchanged. But drilling into the details of the report, a long-awaited slowdown in housing cost inflation materialized last month. Because rental costs make up such a big chunk of overall inflation, that could pave the way for cooler inflation readings going forward.”

SCOTUS WATCH — The Supreme Court said today that it will not decide the case accusing Nvidia of misrepresenting its reliance on the cryptocurrency mining industry after initially hearing arguments last month, NYT’s Adam Liptak writes. “In an unsigned, one-sentence opinion, the court dismissed the case as ‘improvidently granted,’ meaning the justices concluded that it had been a mistake to take it up. There were no noted dissents.”

TAKING THE DOGE FOR A WALK — “Democrats can work with DOGE. I know exactly where to start,” by Rep. RO KHANNA (D-Calif.) for MSNBC: “I want the U.S. to have the greatest military in the world and the resources to counter increasingly sophisticated threats from our adversaries, but we need a more sensible approach. That is why I have been the only member on the House Armed Services Committee to vote against the bloated defense budget.”

WORKING LIKE A DOGE — “No Pay for an 80-Hour Workweek? DOGE Applicants Say Bring It On,” by WSJ’s Joseph De Avila: SARAH ARMSTRONG “says she is ready to leave her job as vice president of operations for a company that makes electrical equipment to volunteer for ELON MUSK’s and VIVEK RAMASWAMY’s new initiative. … ‘I think this is such a unique way to serve the country, and more importantly the people,’ said Armstrong.”

Good Wednesday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at gross@politico.com.

 

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9 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries speaks during a press conference.

House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries is charting a path back to the majority. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

1. 2026 WATCH: House Democrats are already looking forward to expanding their map in the next major election cycle, launching an effort today to “recruit challengers for Republican districts in Arizona, Michigan, California and Virginia that were not contested this year,” WaPo’s Michael Scherer reports. “The list of new targets includes Republican Reps. BILL HUIZENGA in Michigan’s 4th District in the southwest part of the state, ROB WITTMAN in Virginia’s 1st District in the Richmond suburbs, ELIJAH CRANE in Arizona’s 2nd District, which includes some Phoenix exurbs, and KEVIN KILEY in California’s 3rd District in the northern Sierra Nevada.

“The group will launch a 2026 Recruitment Fund to find strong Democratic candidates for those seats and at least 25 others, including longtime Democratic targets such as the New York seat held by MICHAEL LAWLER, the Arizona seat held by JUAN CISCOMANI and the Wisconsin seat held by DERRICK VAN ORDEN, who all held off well-funded challenges this year.”

2. IMMIGRATION NATION: As Trump prepares to enter office with a sweeping and aggressive immigration agenda, senior Biden officials in the final days of their tenure are “wrestling with what, if anything, more can be done to protect certain immigrants residing in the United States, juggling demands from allies and trying to avoid overreaching on an issue that, some political strategists argue, cost Democrats the White House,” CNN’s Priscilla Alvarez reports. While the officials weigh what backlash any moves could bring, many Democrats “are clamoring for Biden to do more for the immigrant community, as advocates express frustration over the administration pressing forward with strict asylum rules while other actions remain in limbo.”

The backdrop: The past few years under the Biden administration have seen the largest immigration in U.S. history (not adjusted for population), according to an analysis of government data by NYT’s David Leonhardt. “Annual net migration — the number of people coming to the country minus the number leaving — averaged 2.4 million people from 2021 to 2023, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Total net migration during the Biden administration is likely to exceed eight million people.

“That’s a faster pace of arrivals than during any other period on record, including the peak years of Ellis Island traffic, when millions of Europeans came to the United States. Even after taking into account today’s larger U.S. population, the recent surge is the most rapid since at least 1850.”

3. DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS: On the world stage, senior Biden officials are focusing on shoring up relations with their Chinese counterparts before they’re forced to give up their posts. A collection of Treasury hands are heading to China and South Africa (on the sidelines of the G20 meeting) this week, NYT’s Alan Rappeport reports. “The officials are expected to discuss a familiar range of issues that have been on the table since the new structure for economic dialogue was created last year. The United States is expected to raise its continued concerns about China’s excess production of green energy technology, which is flooding global markets. Treasury officials are also expected to raise issues with China’s recent restrictions on exports of critical minerals and the support that Chinese firms have been providing to Russia in its war against Ukraine.”

Related read: “Chinese authorities are considering a weaker yuan as Trump trade risks loom,” by Reuters

 

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4. SYRIA LATEST: Since the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, forces from the U.S., Turkey and Israel have popped up, underscoring “the fragility of the new Syria, where rebel factions that ended more than five decades of Assad family rule are maneuvering for leverage and control,” WSJ’s Sune Engel Rasmussen and Isabel Coles write. “Their opportunistic pursuit of national interests complicates life for the main rebel group that spearheaded the lightning offensive, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, as it works to set up an interim government. While Assad’s ouster weakened the sway of U.S. foes Russia and Iran in the strategically located country, the jockeying could put North Atlantic Treaty Organization ally Turkey on a collision course with U.S. and Israeli interests.”

Related read: Reps. Joe Wilson (R-S.C.) and Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.) sent a letter to Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN, Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN and national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN this week urging the officials “to suspend some sanctions on Syria to ease pressure on its shattered economy,” Reuters’ Maya Gebeily reports.

5. HOW IT’S PLAYING: A new AP-NORC poll out today finds that “only about 2 in 10 Americans approve of President Joe Biden’s decision to pardon his son Hunter after earlier promising he would do no such thing,” AP’s Will Weissert and Amelia Thomson-Deveaux write. The details: “The survey found that a relatively small share of Americans ‘strongly’ or ‘somewhat’ approve of the pardon, which came after the younger Biden was convicted on gun and tax charges. About half said they ‘strongly’ or ‘somewhat’ disapprove, and about 2 in 10 neither approve nor disapprove.”

6. LETTER OF THE LAW: “Trump outran the law. His allies haven’t,” by Kyle Cheney and Megan Messerly: “Dozens of Trump’s top aides and political allies are still on the hook in five states where prosecutions are pending over the bid to subvert the 2020 election — and a presidential pardon can’t help them. So while Trump himself has largely succeeded in outrunning prosecutors, his second term will nonetheless feature a split-screen with state investigators who hope to weave a narrative for jurors that puts Trump at the center of a vast conspiracy. … Despite expectations that Trump will wield his pardon power liberally to protect himself and allies from criminal exposure, that power doesn’t extend to state cases, meaning there’s little he can do to intervene.”

 

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7. ROYAL FLUSH: “Prince William’s Chat With Trump Shows Why Royals May Be Potent Diplomatic Tool,” by NYT’s Mark Landler in London: “With the Trump restoration imminent and the British government now led by a left-of-center prime minister, KEIR STARMER, who could find himself politically at odds with Mr. Trump, the crown may end up being a useful weapon in Britain’s campaign to keep the president-elect’s affections. … Trump’s affection for the Windsors is palpable. Diplomats and historians said they could imagine [KING] CHARLES being an emollient presence if Mr. Starmer proceeds with his plan to draw Britain closer to the European Union — something Mr. Trump vehemently discouraged in his first term.”

8. DISTURBING TREND: A chilling new report from the American Sunlight Project, a think tank that researches disinformation and advocates for policies that promote democracy, released today finds that “more than two dozen members of Congress have been the victims of sexually explicit deepfakes,” The 19th’s Barbara Rodriguez and Jasmine Mithani report. The findings “identify more than 35,000 mentions of nonconsensual intimate imagery (NCII) depicting 26 members of Congress — 25 women and one man — that were found recently on deepfake websites. … Neither party affiliation nor geographic location had an impact on the likelihood of being targeted for abuse, though younger members were more likely to be victimized.”

9. FOLLOW THE MONEY: “RFK Jr.’s unusual fund-raising was a windfall for an obscure Massachusetts group,” by the Boston Globe’s Tal Kopan: “Amid a floundering independent run for president this summer, ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR., quietly inked a fund-raising agreement that allowed him to ask supporters for bigger donations. The deal was lucrative — but not just for Kennedy’s campaign. It also ended up being a boon for some of his political opponents and even an obscure Massachusetts political group. The agreement, called a joint fund-raising committee, was set up with the Libertarian National Committee, to bolster the Kennedy campaign. But Kennedy was never on the Libertarian ticket; he ran a rival independent campaign. In fact, after he dropped out of the race, most of the money went into supporting Donald Trump.”

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

Donald Trump will ring the NYSE opening bell tomorrow.

John Fetterman has joined Truth Social.

Deb Haaland appeared on “The Daily Show.”

OUT AND ABOUT — Special Representative Sarah Morgenthau swore in new members appointed to the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Council at the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum on Monday. Attendees included David Cicilline, Stuart Eizenstat, Jonathan Lavine, Leah Pisar, Meryl Frank, Sara Bloomfield, Rebecca Erbelding, Bryan McNamara, Nat Shaffir, Marsha Borin, Paul Fine, Michael Glassner, Susan Lowenberg, Jimmy Resnick, Judy Schocken, Samantha Vinograd and Mark Wilf.

Comcast NBCUniversal and the Motion Picture Association hosted a screening of “Wicked” last night at the MPA. SPOTTED: Charlie Rivkin, Phil Tahtakran, Reps. Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.), Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas), Suzan DelBene (D-Wash.), Mark DeSaulnier (D-Calif.), Nanette Barragan (D-Calif.) and Joaquin Castro (D-Texas), Del. Stacey Plaskett (D-V.I.), Austrian Ambassador Petra Schneebauer, Peruvian Ambassador Alfredo Ferrero, NASA Administrator Bill Nelson and Margaret Carlson.

— SPOTTED at the J.L. Partners and Dally Mail holiday reception at the National Press Club yesterday: Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa), Jason Miller, Boris Epshteyn, Gavin Barwell, Wills Robinson, Rob Crilly, Katie Davies, James Johnson, Tom Lubbock, Landon Wall, Robin Culshaw, Joel Nelson, Justin Bis, Lauren Bowman, Joni Smith, Mark Morgan, Matt Wolking, Matt McDonald, Chris Barnard, Katherine Doyle, Alistair Dawber, Nicholas Alton, Katie Fairclough, John Jameson, Brandon Smith, Kelly Laco, Kerri Kupec, Meg McGaughey, Ninio Fetalvo, Rachel Walker, Matt Whitlock, Laura Schlapp and Nathan Brand.

— SPOTTED at the War Room Christmas Party last night at Butterworth’s on Capitol Hill: Steve Bannon, Boris Epshteyn, Jason Miller, Matt Gaetz, Sen.-elect Jim Banks (R-Ind.), Reps. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) and Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.), Maureen Bannon, Raheem Kassam, Natalie Winters, Mike Davis, Jeff Clark, Paul Dans, Rob Wasinger and Alana Goodman.

— SPOTTED at the National Italian American Foundation Annual Congressional Holiday Dinner at Fiola: Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito, Robert Allegrini, Chris Berardini, Dominic Caglioti, John Calvelli, Pat Cipollone, Reps. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.), Chris Deluzio (D-Pa.), Virginia Foxx (R-N.C.), Andrew Garbarino (R-N.Y.), Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), Lisa McClain (R-Mich.), Jimmy Panetta (D-Calif.), Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), Mike Rulli (R-Ohio), Mike Ferguson, Anthony O’Boyle, Anita McBride, Eugene Scalia and Italian Ambassador Mariangela Zappia.

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