| | | | |  | | By Nahal Toosi, Robbie Gramer and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  The Syrian embassy in Doha, Qatar, is seen on Dec. 11, 2024. The exact nature of Syria’s future government remains unclear. | Nahal Toosi/POLITICO | With help from Daniel Lippman, John Sakellariadis, Connor O’Brien and Phelim Kine Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric DOHA, Qatar — Syria’s embassy in Qatar is unusual: It’s the only one in the world to be run by representatives of a Syrian opposition coalition. Qatar recognized the outpost over a decade ago. Unlike many other Arab states in the years since, Qatar stuck with the opposition activists, refusing to restore ties to the regime of BASHAR AL-ASSAD. Your lead author for today happened to be in the Middle East for this particularly newsy moment. So I stopped by the embassy in Doha this morning — three days after Assad’s ouster. What I heard while there is that Syrians are confident that Americans will help them rebuild their country now that they have toppled their regime. Does that include President-elect DONALD TRUMP, who has long been averse to involvement in Syria? “Of course,” an official at the embassy predicted. “Because he was elected by the American people.” Assad’s fall over the weekend was a delightful shock to the embassy’s small staff, who seemed to be operating on pure adrenaline. Some grew emotional, saying they and their relatives had spent hours crying from joy over the news. The glee was evident even in the reception area of the stylish peach-colored villa that houses the opposition-led mission. Visitors who walked in congratulated the staff, often exchanging hugs. But many Syrians in Qatar aren’t rushing back to their homeland just yet. One man who stopped by said he wanted to return but would wait at least three or four months to see how the situation on the ground evolves. I was granted only a few minutes with the embassy official, who nonetheless requested to be quoted anonymously because the official wasn’t authorized to speak on the record. The official acknowledged the challenges that lie ahead, not the least of which is rebuilding a shattered Syrian economy. The exact nature of Syria’s future government remains unclear, and there are concerns that rebel forces who toppled Assad could turn on each other or impose harsh rule of their own. The leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham rebel group, ABU MOHAMMED AL-GOLANI, says he has sworn off links to extremist groups. But as loyal NatSec Daily readers will recall, some Western officials are still cautious and skeptical of whether that shift is permanent. On Tuesday, U.S. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN said the United States would recognize a new Syrian government if the transition led to “credible, inclusive, and non-sectarian governance.” The embassy official expressed hope that the diverse people of Syria can set aside their differences, especially after all they’ve suffered. “Syrians are always creative,” the official added. In a jubilant formal statement released earlier this week, the embassy said the road ahead of Syrians is “long and arduous, and we must hold hands and lock arms, shouldering our responsibilities to restore our country and build a future worthy of this great nation.” The role the United States will play in Syria’s future is unclear. Trump has long viewed Syria as a quagmire he’d prefer to avoid. In the hours before Assad was pushed out of power — fleeing to Moscow — Trump said the U.S. should have “nothing to do” with Syria. But the U.S. has troops in Syria who are fighting the Islamic State terrorist group — although Trump tried to pull them out during his first term. Some of Trump’s advisers could convince him that stabilizing Syria could be important to U.S. energy, economic and security interests in the broader Middle East. The embassy official hesitated to make specific demands of Washington. The official stressed, though, that Syrians recognize the power the U.S. wields and appreciate its past support for their aspirations to be free of Assad. “We need that friendship to be built and to continue,” the official said. The embassy official also urged the world to pay attention to the emerging horror stories of Syrians who suffered under Assad’s brutal rule. “These testimonies should tell the world a very important message: no more tolerating dictators,” the official said.
| | ISRAEL’S GAME IN SYRIA: A former top Israeli military leader is defending Israel’s military operations in the disputed Golan Heights region as essential to ensure the country’s security in the aftermath of Assad’s ousting by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham rebels. Former Israeli military intel chief AMOS YADLIN told our own ROLF DOBELLI that the Oct. 7, 2023 attacks by Hamas have heightened Israeli worries about militant groups on its borders and that Israel is justified in deploying into the Golan. “HTS, which just toppled the Assad regime, demonstrated their ability to emulate Hamas with a surprise attack from a point of zero distance to the border,” Yadlin said. “So, Israel is making sure that this buffer zone will not be taken by terrorists.” Yadlin’s comments come as Israel has militarily deployed in the Golan to establish what Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU described as a “buffer zone” in areas previously overseen by Syrian troops. Those efforts have been condemned by the United Nations and other international observers as a violation of the cease-fire between Syria and Israel from 1974. U.N. peacekeepers remain in place, said U.N. spokesperson STÉPHANE DUJARRIC. WARSAW AND PARIS’ PARLAY: French and Polish leaders are discussing the prospect of a peacekeeping force in Ukraine after Russia’s invasion ends. Diplomats told our colleagues in Europe that French President EMMANUEL MACRON and Polish Prime Minister DONALD TUSK will discuss the prospect of a peacekeeping force in Ukraine on Thursday, confirming reports in the Polish press that the deployment of a force of up to 40,000 European troops is being explored as a way to guarantee Ukrainian security. Ukraine’s push for NATO membership is facing steep odds with the Trump administration preparing to take office. Meanwhile, Europeans are considering how to step up their own contribution to Ukraine’s defense following repeated threats from the U.S. president-elect and his allies. EUROPE’S POWER PLAYERS: Our pals across the pond have drawn up a power ranking of the most influential people in Europe in 2025. The top dog? Italian Prime Minister GIORGIA MELONI. She has consolidated political influence in the messy world of Italian politics, tacked from the far right more toward the center (on some but not all issues) and become one of the continent’s best-positioned leaders for the next era of transatlantic ties under Trump. Also on that list: New NATO chief MARK RUTTE as “the dreamer” for seeking to adapt the military alliance to a new and dangerous era and Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN for his deadly and cynical imperial ambitions to fracture the West in his botched “special military operation” in Ukraine. IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s global security team: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @jessicameyers, @RosiePerper, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, and @johnnysaks130
| | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — POLMIL CONTENDER: CHRISTOPHER PRATT, the former principal deputy special presidential envoy for hostage affairs in the Trump administration, is being considered for a senior role in the Bureau of Political-Military Affairs at the State Department, two people familiar with the matter told our DANIEL LIPPMAN. Before joining the hostage office at State, he was chief of hostage recovery/personnel recovery in the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy. Pratt is also a contender for other roles at the State and Defense Departments, one of the people added. Pratt did not respond to a request for comment while Trump spokesperson KAROLINE LEAVITT declined to comment when asked about Pratt. FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — RATCLIFFE’S CONGRESS GUIDE: MICHAEL ALLEN, a longtime Republican foreign policy hand who worked in the Bush National Security Council and on the House Intelligence Committee, is acting as the “sherpa” in Congress for CIA director nominee JOHN RATCLIFFE, two people familiar with the matter told Daniel. He could appear an odd pick for that role, given that he co-hosted a campaign fundraiser in February 2021 for top Trump critic LIZ CHENEY, according to an invitation NatSec Daily obtained. Allen, now managing director of Beacon Global Strategies LLC, didn’t respond to a request for comment. A spokesperson for the transition declined to comment. PAVING THE WAY: Two Trump loyalists, CLIFF SIMS and MICHAEL ELLIS, are working on the landing team for the Central Intelligence Agency, three people familiar with the matter told our JOHN SAKELLARIADIS and Daniel. The involvement of the two men is the latest sign that the incoming administration is serious about reforming the intelligence community, which close allies of the president-elect still blame for harboring bias against Republicans and bungling high-profile investigations, like the Trump-Russia probe. Sims, a former senior White House communications official who also worked for the office of the director of national intelligence, has been closely involved in the transition and is close with Ratcliffe. Ellis, once the chief counsel to GOP firebrand former Rep. DEVIN NUNES (R-Calif.), worked on intelligence matters as a senior national security official for Trump, and then had a brief stint as the general counsel for the NSA. Ellis and Sims did not respond to requests for comment. The Trump-Vance transition also did not respond to a request for comment.
| | | NDAA GETS A VOTE: The House is set to vote this afternoon on a final defense policy bill, and top leaders are girding for a tighter vote than usual, given a partisan spat over language restricting gender-affirming care for transgender children, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN writes in. Many Democrats are likely to oppose the otherwise bipartisan $895 billion National Defense Authorization Act over the provision, included at the behest of Speaker MIKE JOHNSON. Top House Armed Services Democrat ADAM SMITH (D-Wash.) is voting against the bill over the issue. Still, some Democrats may be hard-pressed to oppose the NDAA because it also includes a nearly 15 percent pay raise for junior enlisted troops and other pro-military policies. House Armed Services Chair MIKE ROGERS (R-Ala.) lamented that GOP leadership pushed for the language on transgender care in the final version of the bill, arguing that it is creating unnecessary strife. Even if there are no restrictions in the legislation, he noted, Trump could implement them later. "The president's going to stop all these social, cultural issues from being embedded as policies," Rogers told reporters of Trump. "I don't know why this is in the bill when on Jan. 20, it's a moot point."
| | | | BLINKEN FACES HFAC: Blinken ran the political gauntlet over the Biden administration’s botched Afghanistan withdrawal on Capitol Hill today. His testimony before the House Foreign Affairs Committee came more than six months after the committee chair, Rep. MICHAEL MCCAUL, requested Blinken’s testimony. “I’ve been disappointed that you’ve ignored my request for your testimony, forcing me to subpoena you, not once but twice,” McCaul told Blinken. During the hearing, Blinken defended (again) Biden’s decision to withdraw from Afghanistan: “No one anticipated that the government and the armed forces would collapse as quickly as they did,” he said. A State Department dissent cable in July of 2021 — a month before the Afghan government’s rapid disintegration ahead of a Taliban takeover — reportedly warned against the U.S. withdrawal and the risks of the government’s collapse. That dissent cable remains classified. Rep. GREGORY MEEKS (D-N.Y.), the top Democrat on the committee, rebuked the Republicans for leading a “partisan and misleading” investigation into Afghanistan that papered over the former Trump administration’s failures to plan for a withdrawal when it first set the withdrawal agreement that the Biden administration inherited. Rep. BRIAN MAST (R-Fl.) joined other Republicans in unloading on Blinken and the Biden administration. Mast, who will become the next HFAC chair in the new Congress, lost both his legs in Afghanistan when he served in the U.S. military. “We insult every single person that served when we come in here and we say words like ‘We're sorry that the Afghanistan withdrawal was not exactly perfect,’” he said. “And this place absolutely lives up to being a swamp when we try to cover up the fact that 26 of your diplomats told you directly that if you continue down the path that you were going that it was going to be a disaster.” Read: GOP drama: Cotton seeks intelligence chair, thwarting Cornyn by our own JONATHAN MARTIN
| | CHINA CHIDES CSIS’ CUBA REPORT: Beijing is sharply denying the findings of a new report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies alleging that China is linked to four bases in Cuba that could be used to collect intelligence on the United States and its neighbors. Foreign Ministry spokesperson MAO NING told reporters today that “China’s cooperation with Cuba is done aboveboard, and does not target any third party. We certainly would not accept any deliberate vilification and smear from any third party.” Mao went on to criticize the U.S. for its continued control of the Guantanamo Bay naval base, a sore spot in relations between Havana and Washington. She also condemned Cuba’s place on the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism and the U.S. embargo. Cuban Deputy Foreign Minister CARLOS FERNÁNDEZ DE COSSÍO condemned the report as “absolutely false” in a post on X.
| | — Trump announced a gamut of foreign policy roles last night. As Eric reported, Trump tapped former Fox News host KIMBERLY GUILFOYLE for ambassador to Greece, private equity executive and ally TOM BARRACK for ambassador to Turkey and career diplomat and former Ambassador to El Salvador RONALD JOHNSON for ambassador to Mexico. Trump also picked Palantir senior adviser and TikTok ban advocate JACOB HELBERG as his nominee for undersecretary of State for economic growth. — The Middle East Institute think tank has named retired ambassador STUART E. JONES as its next president and CEO. Jones previously served as U.S. ambassador to Jordan and Iraq.
| | — BENOIT FAUCON, GABRIELE STEINHAUSER, KEJAL VYAS and SUMMER SAID, The Wall Street Journal: The global war machine supplying Colombian mercenaries to fight in Sudan — LAURIE KELLMAN and KIM TONG-HYUNG, The Associated Press: South Korea’s democracy held after a 6-hour power play. What does it say for democracies elsewhere? — CHAN YOUNG BANG, The Diplomat: How the Kim regime managed to survive in North Korea (so far)
| | — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 9 a.m.: “To prevent war, NATO must dial up its defenses" with NATO Secretary-General Rutte — Henry L. Stimson Center, 9 a.m.: Security trends in Southern Asia — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9 a.m.: Strengthening Ukraine's economic recovery and reconstruction: Looking back and planning forward — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9:30 a.m.: What happened in South Korea? — Middle East Institute, 9:30 a.m.: The fall of Assad, future of Syria, and a region redrawn — Asia Society Policy Institute, 9:30 a.m.: Trump's second act: What it means for Asia and Pakistan — Wilson Center's Canada Institute,10 a.m.: Matter more: A Canadian strategy for a changing United States — Atlantic Council, 10:30 a.m.: "Ukraine's Security, Europe's Stability" as part of Central Europe Week. — Brookings Institution, 11 a.m.: Bridges or battlegrounds? American cities in the U.S.-China relationship — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 12 p.m.: The Democratic Republic of the Congo's path to peace and regional integration — Quincy Institute, 12 p.m.: Syria and the United States after Assad — Wilson Center Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies, 1 p.m.: James H. Billington Lecture on "Reading and Learning from Political Prisoners Today: Beyond the Dissidents." — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 4 p.m.: Threat multiplier: Climate, military leadership, and the fight for global security Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, whose ouster will be greeted with delightful shock. Thanks to our producer, Giselle Ruhiyyih Ewing, who should lead the interim government in the wake of Heidi’s eventual fall from power. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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