| | | | |  | | By Melanie Mason, Blake Jones and Dustin Gardiner | | Presented by |  | | | |  U.S. Rep. Katie Porter, D-Calif., waves at supporters at an election night party, Tuesday, March 5, 2024, in Long Beach, Calif. | AP/Damian Dovarganes | THE BUZZ: POLL POSITION — The PAC for outgoing Rep. Katie Porter sent out an email Tuesday with a blunt subject line: “2026 starts now.” (That screaming you hear is from political reporters who aren’t even done covering 2024.) That particular note was about boosting Democrats running in next cycle’s House races. But it also applies to her other fundraising committee — the new state-level one — that is busily ginning up buzz around Porter’s increasingly probable run for governor. The PAC recently commissioned a poll, obtained by Playbook as it’s being circulated to Sacramento insiders, on the 2026 gubernatorial race. And wouldn’t you know it, but it found Porter comfortably ahead in two different iterations of the potential field. Here’s the perennial caveat when it comes to internal polls, particularly those released for public consumption: They’re often used to help shape a favorable narrative for the candidate who paid for it. Still, Porter has been leading the pack in other surveys, including one from Berkeley IGS last month and an internal poll this spring by rival gubernatorial hopeful Antonio Villaraigosa. (Other recent internals, including an August survey commissioned by Villaraigosa and an October poll for Lt. Gov Eleni Kounalakis did not include Porter, who is still not officially a declared candidate.) There’s lots to delve into in this newest snapshot of the still-developing horse race conducted by Breakthrough Campaigns (which, in a fun twist, is the polling firm used by Sen. Adam Schiff, Porter’s rival in this year’s top-two Senate primary). It found that in a 10-person field of declared and likely candidates, Porter was in the lead with 24 percent. That’s far ahead of the next highest-placing Democrat, Kounalakis, who notched 9 percent, and former state controller Betty Yee and current Biden Health Secretary Xavier Becerra with 6 percent apiece. Other Democrats, including former Senate Leader Toni Atkins, Villaraigosa, and state schools chief Tony Thurmond, are stuck in the low single-digits. On the GOP side of the ledger, Steve Garvey, the baseball icon who was bested by Schiff in the Senate general election, garnered 21 percent support, while Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco got 14 percent. The survey also tested an expanded contest with 14 candidates, including Attorney General Rob Bonta, former Sen. Laphonza Butler and Rick Caruso, the billionaire developer who ran for Los Angeles mayor two years ago. Once again, Porter was at the top of the field with 21 percent. The poll included likely ballot designations, which will matter for former elected officials who cannot rest on the laurels of their previous offices when they appear on the ballot. Porter, who is returning to her roots as a UC Irvine law school professor, is designated as a “consumer protection attorney.” Porter’s strong showing is boosted by her notoriety. She is one of the best-known Democrats of the bunch, per the poll’s findings. And even though a pro-crypto PAC pummeled her with negative ads during the Senate primary, her approval rating remains rightside up: 39 percent of respondents said they viewed her favorably while 20 percent had an unfavorable impression. Among Democratic and no party preference voters, those numbers improve to 50 percent favorable to 15 percent unfavorable. There’s lots more grist for polling nerds … erm, enthusiasts … in the full memo here. There is, though, one glaring omission in this survey (besides the fact that Steve Hilton wasn’t included as a Republican contender). The poll does not take into account whether Kamala Harris will enter the governor’s race, a tacit acknowledgement that all these numbers could be moot if the vice-president scrambles the contest. Or, in Porter’s own words as a UC Irvine panel last week, “if Vice President Harris were to choose to run, I am certain that would have a near field-clearing effect on the Democratic side.” GOOD MORNING. Happy Wednesday. Thanks for waking up with Playbook. You can text us at 916-562-0685 — save it as “CA Playbook” in your contacts. Or drop us a line at dgardiner@politico.com and bjones@politico.com, or on X — @DustinGardiner and @jonesblakej. WHERE’S GAVIN? Hosting a Christmas tree lighting ceremony at the state Capitol this evening, alongside First Partner Jennifer Siebel Newsom. The 7 p.m. event will be streamed on YouTube.
| | | | A message from Food & Water Action: Will Gov. Newsom side with the oil and gas industry or Californians after the “worst gas leak in US history?" In 2015, the Aliso Canyon Gas Storage Facility released 100,000 tons of methane and toxic chemicals, endangering public health. Governor Newsom vowed to shut down Aliso Canyon, but his Public Utilities Commission appointees voted to expand it. The PUC will decide Aliso Canyon’s future on December 19th. Learn more. | | | |  | REPUBLICANLAND | | |  Then-state Sen. Mike Morrell debates on the Senate floor at the Capitol in Sacramento, Calif., Wednesday, Aug. 27, 2014. | AP/Rich Pedroncelli | FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: GOP JOCKEYING — Republican Mike Morrell, who served 10 years in the state Legislature including nearly all of President-elect Donald Trump’s first term, is running for California GOP chair, he told Playbook. He said he wants to grow the number of party delegates and expand efforts to elect Republicans to nonpartisan city councils and school boards in Democratic strongholds. Party Vice Chair Corrin Rankin and likely others will also vie for the leadership post at the party’s convention this spring, when Chair Jessica Millan Patterson will step down due to term limits. Morrell already has the trappings of a campaign website online but is still building it out. He plans to post a summary of his platform there within the next two days. Here are the highlights from Morrell’s conversation with Playbook, edited for length and clarity. What would you do differently from Chair Millan Patterson? As near as I can tell, we're approaching about 300 organizations — the Golden State Republican Women, patriot clubs and the California Republican Assembly. One thing I would do differently is reaching out to clubs asking them to help with campaigns. I'd like to see these clubs adopt a candidate where they have a vested interest, whether it's state Senate, Assembly or congressional. There's a lot of little newspapers that are always looking for op-eds. If we can get some of these clubs writing op-eds and sending out our message, we can expand our efforts. What else? We say we want to have a big tent, yet our number of delegates is not very high, so I'd like to have a big tent and expand how many people have a say in the Republican Party across the state by expanding how many delegates we have. The party has to manage local, state, legislative and congressional races. Does it need to shift its resources toward any one of these levels of elections? That's like saying, “Which of my four kids do I love the most?” That's a tough one. We did not do very well in our congressional races, and so we need help there. This next election in two years, Congress may be the most important. California could be the pathway to keeping Congress controlled by the Republicans. But they’re all important. Strategists have for years debated whether California Republicans should distance themselves from Trump. Should they? I don't think we have to run from him or run to him. I think we just speak honestly, ethically and morally about what we believe, and embrace the things that he's done. He's not God, right? We want to support him on the things that make sense to most people, especially economic issues and crime.
| | | | REGISTER NOW: As the 118th Congress ends, major decisions loom, including healthcare appropriations. Key focus: site neutrality. Can aligning hospital and clinic costs cut federal spending, reflect physician costs, and lower patient expenses? Join policymakers and providers to discuss. | | | | | | | CAMPAIGN YEAR(S) | | ELENI’S REACH — Kounalakis, a candidate for governor, boosted her profile this past cycle by using her super PACs to help Democrats in swing California House races. Californians for Choice, her PAC to mobilize pro-abortion-rights voters, said the group made three million outreach attempts to California voters in swing House districts, including through phone calls and text messages. The candidates she boosted included Adam Gray, Dave Min and George Whitesides, who won tight contests, as well as Will Rollins and Rudy Salas, who came up short. Kounalakis’ PAC spent $5 million total to support Democratic candidates across the country this cycle, but a spokesperson said its voter outreach efforts in California were primarily led by volunteers.
| | | | A message from Food & Water Action:   | | | | | FIRST IN POLITICO: SCHIFF THE REGULATOR — Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer named newly sworn-in Sen. Adam Schiff to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday night, our colleague Eleanor Mueller scooped for POLITICO Pro subscribers. Schumer passed a resolution by unanimous consent to make the appointments, which are temporary and ensure Democrats have a majority on the panel. New Sen. Andy Kim of New Jersey was also appointed to the panel.
| | SILICON VALLEYLAND | | | | 
California Playbook co-author Dustin Gardiner (right) speaks at a Tuesday event hosted by the Silicon Valley Leadership Group. | Silicon Valley Leadership Group | SPOTTED: BIG TECH’S NIGHT OUT — The Silicon Valley Leadership Group hosted its Annual Forum last night at Levi’s Stadium in the South Bay, a ritzy soiree that drew hundreds of tech insiders and elected officials. The crowd included 49ers CEO Jed York, San Francisco Mayor-elect Daniel Lurie, state Sen. Dave Cortese, Assemblymember Patrick Ahrens, Lucid Motors COO Marc Winterhoff, SVLG CEO Ahmad Thomas, San Jose Council Member David Cohen, Palo Alto Mayor Greer Stone and Councilmember Pat Burt, SJSU Dean of Undergrad Education Melissa Jackson and KQED’s Guy Marzorati. Attendees enjoyed California wines — “premium” Pinot Noir, Chardonay and Cabernet — as they mingled in the stadium’s corridors. Lurie, however, played it safe, sipping water and Philz coffee before taking the stage for a fireside chat about his vision for the city’s comeback. Afterward, guests walked on the 49ers’ field, took selfies with mascot “Sourdough Sam” and sat in a prototype model of Lucid’s forthcoming Gravity model, a luxury electric SUV with a whopping 440-mile range.
| | | | Billions in spending. Critical foreign aid. Immigration reform. The final weeks of 2024 could bring major policy changes. Inside Congress provides daily insights into how Congressional leaders are navigating these high-stakes issues. Subscribe today. | | | | | | | CLIMATE AND ENERGY | | FONDA'S FRIENDS: A well-funded campaign committee led by Jane Fonda credits itself with scaring Big Oil off the ballot back in June. That was just the beginning of its environmental justice influence campaign. Find out what the Campaign for a Safe and Healthy California has been doing with a $20 million windfall in last night’s California Climate.
| | Top Talkers | | THE PLOT THICKENS — A possible warning sign about Luigi Mangione, the suspect in the killing of the UnitedHealthcare CEO, emerged in San Francisco weeks before the murder. The San Francisco Standard reports that Mangione’s mother reported him missing to city police on Nov. 18. NOT ONE TO DOGE INTERVIEWS — Rep. Ro Khanna told the Bulwark he wants to work with Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency on “strategic cuts” to defense spending, but warned he’ll “oppose with every fiber of my being” any cut to Medicare or Social Security.
| | | AROUND THE STATE | | | — The Franklin Fire tore through Malibu Tuesday, destroying homes and forcing thousands to evacuate. (Los Angeles Times) — San Francisco Democratic Party Chair Nancy Tung is steering her party to the center. (KQED) — The humming resort town of Mammoth’s economy would screech to a halt without Mexican-born service workers. (Los Angeles Times) — Silicon Valley billionaires in Trump World have talked about their policy preferences in public — a lot. Their comments lay out a vast deregulation agenda that touches on health tech, defense and artificial intelligence. (POLITICO) — Nearly 300 Fresno County voters were given the wrong ballot for the November election. (San Joaquin Valley Sun)
| | | | A message from Food & Water Action: Will Gov. Newsom side with the oil and gas industry or Californians after the “worst gas leak in US history?" In 2015, the Aliso Canyon Gas Storage Facility released 100,000 tons of methane and toxic chemicals. SoCalGas’ disaster forced thousands to evacuate their homes to avoid further exposure to cancer-causing benzene and other chemicals.
SoCalGas took four months to seal the gas leak. Families near Aliso are still suffering the consequences. Instead of shutting it down like Gov. Newsom promised, the PUC allowed Aliso to expand by 3,000%, perpetuating the public health threat.
Over 150 organizations have come together to call for a shutdown of Aliso by 2027, but the PUC is considering kicking the can down the road instead of protecting communities. Gov. Newsom and allies should stand with families, not SoCalGas’ profits. On December 19th, the PUC will decide the future of Aliso Canyon. Learn more. | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | PEOPLE MOVES — Matt Reid is now U.S. CEO at Burson Buchanan. He previously was managing director and head of the Los Angeles office for H/Advisors Abernathy. BIRTHDAYS — Kara Swisher … Josh Morton … BELATED B-DAY WISHES — (was Tuesday) Rep. Mark Takano (D-Calif.) … former Rep. Harley Rouda (D-Calif.) … Kip Wainscott … Steve Johnston … David A. Ulevitch ... Emmanuelle Chriqui (was Monday): Simon Helberg ... Lisa Greer WANT A SHOUT-OUT FEATURED? — Send us a birthday, career move or another special occasion to include in POLITICO’s California Playbook. You can now submit a shout-out using this Google form. CALIFORNIA POLICY IS ALWAYS CHANGING: Know your next move. From Sacramento to Silicon Valley, POLITICO California Pro provides policy professionals with the in-depth reporting and tools they need to get ahead of policy trends and political developments shaping the Golden State. To learn more about the exclusive insight and analysis this subscriber-only service offers, click here. Want to make an impact? POLITICO California has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Golden State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Rebecca Haase to find out how: rhaase@politico.com. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
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