RFK IN TROUBLE — Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s prospects of becoming HHS secretary could be dimming as at least three GOP senators are noncommittal about confirming the vaccine critic, POLITICO’s Ursula Perano reports. Those include swing votes like Sens. Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, a gastroenterologist who will chair a committee that could host confirmation hearings for Kennedy. When asked whether Kennedy’s past controversies would bog down his nomination, Cassidy said everyone wants to “predict the future,” but he just wants to “let things play.” Why their votes matter: Kennedy can afford to lose only three Republicans during his confirmation if all Senate Democrats vote against him. Some aren’t timid in sharing their thoughts. Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), a member of the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, said he doesn’t want a “denier of science” helming the nation’s top health agency. “I get that there are quid pro quos in politics, but that one’s a pretty naked one,” Murphy said. And a GOP senator, granted anonymity to speak candidly, last week suggested Kennedy might be the next of Trump’s nominees to face problems in the Senate. They noted that goodwill from Democrats toward the nominee may even “hurt” his chances with Republicans. What to watch: Kennedy is expected on Capitol Hill next week with nearly two dozen meetings scheduled, per a spokesperson. “This is a week going after Tulsi Gabbard. Now, I guess they’re gonna skip over Kash [Patel] and then go after RFK next week because he’s coming,” said Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), who said he’s meeting with Kennedy on Tuesday. Tuberville broadly supports Trump’s picks for nominees and said Kennedy has “got a lot of great ideas” and is “outside the box.” GUTHRIE LOOKS FORWARD — Rep. Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.), incoming chair of the Energy and Commerce Committee, told reporters Tuesday that crafting a reconciliation package will be a top priority. The maneuver, which allows lawmakers to skirt the Senate filibuster and pass legislation with a simple majority in both chambers, will be a major focus for enacting President-elect Donald Trump’s agenda. Guthrie didn’t go into details about the package’s contents, saying he hasn’t been involved since he isn’t yet chair. “Hopefully, we’ll get started on it very soon,” Guthrie said. Guthrie noted Trump said he wouldn’t touch Medicare or Social Security. Republicans have suggested making changes to Medicaid as part of reconciliation could help pay for other priorities. Guthrie said he’s always supported per capita allotments for Medicaid, which could lead to lower Medicaid spending by allocating money based on population, not the cost of care. “It doesn’t cut Medicaid,” Guthrie said. “It allows Medicaid to grow … if you lose population, you lose money, and if you gain population, you gain.” Asked whether he would pursue changes to the Affordable Care Act, Guthrie said we’re “looking at everything.” Despite there not being a bill to repeal and replace Obamacare, he said there are things that “we have to fix,” including costs. He noted that enhanced ACA premium subsidies run out at the end of 2025. Republicans are expected to let them expire, though insurers and other groups are pushing to keep them going. He said it would be a conference decision about whether to continue them but suggested they drive up health care spending. The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that the subsidies’ expiration would lead to millions more uninsured Americans. He signaled openness to bolstering association health plans, which Trump-era rules expanded access to, making it easier for small businesses to team up to buy health insurance and avoid some regulations. About that end-of-year health care package: Guthrie said the situation is fluid. Democrats and Republicans have traded offers. HAIL MARY FOR SOCIAL MEDIA BILL — House Speaker Mike Johnson is holding a Senate-passed bill requiring social media companies to do more to protect kids online, saying it “might lead to further censorship by the government of valid conservative voices” and calling for more negotiation, POLITICO’s Ruth Reader reports. On Saturday, principal GOP Senate sponsor, Tennessee’s Marsha Blackburn, made changes to the Kids Online Safety Act in a last-ditch effort to get it passed But Johnson has softened his “no,” saying if an agreement weren’t possible this year, Republicans could take up the measure again in 2025. “All of us, a hundred percent of us, support the principle behind it, but you've got to get this one right,” he said. Why it matters: Blackburn’s bill would create a “duty of care” requiring social media firms to alter design features that addict kids and allow unwanted contact with strangers. She suggested changes that would limit the regulation of platform design so it applies only to personalized features and limit the duty of care to only harms related to features that stoke compulsive usage. Johnson hasn’t relented despite a lobbying campaign that includes parents, advocacy groups, Surgeon General Vivek Murthy and attorneys general in more than 35 states. He said waiting till the next Congress, when Republicans will control both chambers and the White House, would speed negotiations. But that might effectively kill the bill. Tech industry opponents of the bill want to eliminate the duty-of-care language, arguing it could force them to suppress content. What’s next: Parents groups that support KOSA demonstrated on Capitol Hill on Tuesday and still hope to convince lawmakers to attach the bill to end-of-year spending legislation.
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