News: What to watch on Election Day

Tuesday, November 5, 2024

What to watch on Election Day

Nov 05, 2024

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IT’S TIIIIIIIME — There won’t be a lot of choices down most Bay Staters’ ballots today, with only one statewide contest and little competition in legislative races.

But Massachusetts voters will get the chance to weigh in on a slate of wide-ranging ballot questions, campaigns for which have dominated the otherwise sleepy election. And the state’s Republican Party, under new leadership since last cycle, is looking to make a small dent in the supermajorities Democrats currently hold in both legislative chambers.

Here’s what we’re watching today:

CAN REPUBLICANS GAIN GROUND — The MassGOP has been in rebuild-mode since losing every statewide contest in 2022. With new leadership, the party is looking to build on wins in the latest House and Senate special elections. Today’s the first big test for Chair Amy Carnevale, who’s been trying to dig the party out of debt since taking over in 2023 — and it’s likely the last chance to prove they have a winning formula before Carnevale is up for reelection early next year.

There’s a handful of seats that could be competitive:

In the Senate, Republican Rep. Mathew Muratore and Democratic Rep. Dylan Fernandes are facing off in a race to replace outgoing Sen. Susan Moran, a Democrat, in the purple Plymouth and Barnstrable district. The race has been one of the most expensive on Beacon Hill (Fernandes spent more than any other state politician in September, according to campaign finance data, and Muratore spent the third most in October). Muratore and Fernandes have also drawn endorsements from former Gov. Charlie Baker and Gov. Maura Healey respectively.

The Third Bristol and Plymouth District, open for the first time in more than 30 years, features a competitive three-way contest between Republican Taunton City Councilor Kelly Dooner, Democratic Raynham Select Board Chair Joseph Pacheco, and Jim DuPont, an independent and former Raynham selectman.

In the House, Republican Ken Sweezey is facing Democrat Becky Colletta in the Sixth Plymouth District seat former Rep. Josh Cutler vacated earlier this year for a role in Healey’s administration.

There’s a few incumbents on both sides of the aisle facing competitive challenges, too. Democratic Sen. John Cronin is facing a challenge from Republican Nick Pirro in the Worcester & Middlesex District.

In the Ninth Norfolk House District, there’s a rematch between Democrat Kevin Kalkut and GOP Rep. Marcus Vaughn, who narrowly won the seat last cycle. And Republicans are hoping GOP challenger Lynne Archambault can best incumbent Democratic Rep. Margaret Scarsdale to flip the First Middlesex District seat she narrowly won in 2022.

MARGINS IN THE BALLOT BATTLES — The most competitive section on most voters ballots, Bay Staters will weigh in on questions on that would allow allow State Auditor Diana DiZoglio to audit the Legislature (Question 1), end MCAS as a high school graduation requirement (Question 2), allow app-based drivers to unionize (Question 3), legalize the use of psychedelics for people 21 and older at licensed therapy centers (Question 4) and require employers to phase in a full minimum wage (currently $15 an hour) for tipped workers (with the option to implement tip pooling) over five years (Question 5).

If Questions 1 and 2 pass (polling shows support for both), keep an eye on the margins. Legislative leaders didn’t shoot down the idea that they would tweak or toss the laws if either passed – though the fate of a legislative audit seems more likely to play out in the courts.

“We’ll see how big the margin is,” House Speaker Ron Mariano told reporters when asked about the possibility last month.

OUT OF STATERS — The most competitive gubernatorial race is playing out just north of Massachusetts’ border, and the stakes are high for Healey, who exerted some serious political clout trying to help get former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig elected in New Hampshire’s open race.

Another one to keep an eye on: Maryland’s Senate race, where a popular, moderate former Republican governor is testing whether voters in a deep-blue state are willing to send him to Washington.

PRESIDENTIAL TIES THAT BIND — We might have to wait a few days before we know who is headed to the White House, but the culmination of one of the most chaotic presidential election cycles in recent memory could reverberate back home — particularly if Vice President Kamala Harris wins and decides to tap into the Bay State’s deep Democratic bench to staff up her new administration.

GOOD TUESDAY MORNING, MASSACHUSETTS. Happy Election Day! Polls close at 8 p.m. After that, head to POLITICO’s election results page — and follow along on our live blog for updates throughout the day.

TODAY — Gov. Maura Healey and First Lady Joanna Lydgate vote at 9 a.m. in Arlington. Secretary of State Bill Galvin casts his ballot and takes questions from the press at 9:30 a.m. in Brighton. GOP Senate candidate John Deaton votes at 9:45 a.m. in Bolton. Rep. Richard Neal greets voters at 11 a.m. in Great Barrington and 4 p.m in Longmeadow. Rep. Jim McGovern votes at noon in Worcester. Boston Mayor Michelle Wu votes at 8:30 a.m. in Roslindale.

Tips? Scoops? Election thoughts? Email me: kgarrity@politico.com

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YAHD SIGNS AND BUMPAH STICKAHS

IT ALL COMES DOWN TO TURNOUT — Secretary of State Bill Galvin is predicting record turnout this election, after 1.7 million Massachusetts voters took advantage of early and mail-in voting. Galvin told reporters yesterday he's anticipating turnout to break the record set during the 2020 cycle, when 3.7 million voters cast a ballot. More from GBH News.

— “What the final polls say,” by Steven Shepard, POLITICO: “Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: The presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is close. How close? No matter which polling average you look at, no candidate has a lead of 3 points or greater in any of the seven core battleground states states (and if you exclude Arizona, where Donald Trump has led in recent polls, no candidate has a lead of even 2 points).”

— “What Putin really wants from the US election,” by Eva Hartog, POLITICO: “When Donald Trump won the White House in 2016, Champagne corks popped in Moscow. Eight years, two elections and an all-out assault on Ukraine later, the bubbles of hope have gone flat and been replaced with bittersweet gulps of schadenfreude. While the conventional wisdom may be that the Kremlin is once again wishing for Trump, the reality is that neither of the two possible future presidents is likely to deliver everything Moscow wants.”

— “Bill Belichick interviews Donald Trump on ‘Let’s Go!’ podcast,” by Emma Healy and Katie McInerney, The Boston Globe: “Former President Donald Trump and former Patriots coach Bill Belichick renewed their public friendship on Monday, with Trump joining Belichick and sports commentator Jim Gray on the ‘Let’s Go!’ podcast on the eve of Tuesday’s election. In a 24-minute episode, Gray, Trump, and Belichick covered a range of topics, including gambling, NIL and college sports, NFL safety concerns.”

— “8 Massachusetts cities will be monitored for compliance with federal voting rights laws,” by Rick Sobey: “The feds will be monitoring eight Bay State cities for compliance with federal voting rights laws on Tuesday, according to the U.S. Attorney’s Office. Election monitors in Massachusetts will be assigned to polling locations in Everett, Fitchburg, Leominster, Lowell, Malden, Methuen, Quincy and Salem.”

— “Despite unique challenges, Boston's homeless voters are finding their way to the polls,” by Esteban Bustillos, WBUR.

— “Women voters — cautious after Hillary Clinton defeat — wary of Election Day 2024,” by Hadley Barndollar, MassLive.

FROM THE HUB

— “Boston’s business tax hike plan advances to State House for consideration,” by Gayla Cawley, Boston Herald.

MIGRANTS IN MASSACHUSETTS

— “A migrant family’s search for home through a political storm,” by Simón Rios, WBUR.

IT'S NOT EASY BEING GREEN

— “New Bedford shipping offshore wind parts after turbine blade collapse,” by Matthew Ferreira, The Standard-Times: “As companies involved with the Vineyard Wind 1 offshore wind farm execute an updated Incident and Response Action Plan after the partial collapse of a damaged turbine blade back in July, large vessels were observed last week bringing what appeared to be full-size turbine blades into and out of New Bedford Harbor. While stopping short of revealing where those blades were coming from and heading to, or stating explicitly why, a spokesperson for GE Vernova — one of the companies involved with the Vineyard Wind 1 project — confirmed on Friday that the activity seen in New Bedford had to do with the incident and response action plan first announced in August, after July's partial blade collapse.”

A message from Johnson & Johnson:

— “'Everything is transparent.' Here's how one Berkshire County town is tallying votes on Tuesday the old fashioned way — by hand,” by Jane Kaufman, The Berkshire Eagle.

THE LOCAL ANGLE

— “Amesbury city councilor charged with disrupting Trump parade,” by Tonya Alanez, The Boston Globe: “Amesbury City Councilor Steven J. Stanganelli was arrested over the weekend for reportedly disrupting a pro-Trump parade by screaming, stopping traffic, and jumping onto the hood of a pickup truck participating in the procession in the city’s downtown. On Monday, Stanganelli, 59, pleaded not guilty to a misdemeanor charge of disorderly conduct in Newburyport District Court, records show. He was released on his own recognizance, and his next court date, a pre-trial hearing, is set for Dec. 11.”

— “North Shore fires still burning as state reports 1,200% rise in October wildfires,” by Caroline Enos, The Salem News: “About 190 acres have burned in a Middleton brush fire that broke out last weekend, making it the largest fire the state has seen this year and during a particularly brutal October wildfire season. Flames started in the woods near Middleton Pond on Oct. 26 and spread to about 170 acres by Thursday, according to the town’s Fire Department.”

— “Absent drivers, no spare buses, only 3 mechanics: Audit slams Brockton school bus program,” by Christopher Butler, The Brockton Enterprise.

— “Attleboro raises water restrictions, bans outdoor burning,” by George Rhodes, The Sun Chronicle.

MEDIA MATTERS

— “Western Mass News cuts back,” by Jim Kinney, The Springfield Republican: “Western Mass News – which operates three television stations — ABC40, CBS3 and Fox6 — has cut back its news broadcasts and reduced its staff. The station has reportedly eliminated weekend evening newscasts and will trim the length of the morning newscast, which was from 4:30 a.m. to 9 a.m., to a new time of 5 to 7 a.m. Local employees reported the loss of 12 people, or about 20 percent of the staff, and described the planned programming changes.”

HEARD ‘ROUND THE BUBBLAH

TRANSITIONS — Taline Badrikian has joined Massachusetts Clean Energy Center as the agency’s vice president of marketing and communications.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY — To Jeremy Ravinsky, Richard Parker, Alyssa Stone and Meryl Holt Silverman.

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