Tuesday, November 5, 2024

50 numbers that explain the 2024 election

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By Charlie Mahtesian, Calder McHugh and Samantha Latson

Photo collage of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump with various election items

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are locked in a contest that could come down to the margins. | Illustration by Claudine Hellmuth/POLITICO (source images via AP and iStock)

DECISION DAY — You probably already know the most important number this evening — 270. That’s the number of electoral votes that Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump needs to secure victory in the Electoral College. But there’s also a whole host of other inputs and numbers that will determine who reaches that all critical milestone.

For the last few months at POLITICO Nightly, we’ve been previewing the election in depth — with conversations with experts on Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Michigan. And we’ve explained the early vote, the ‘bro podcasters’ who have become an important part of the election and Trump’s appeal to the union rank-and-file.

Now, we’re breaking the election down to its component parts — 50 essential numbers that are essential to explaining and understanding what’s about to happen over the course of the next many hours or days.

1. Early votes castOver 82 million

2. Top three media markets for ad spending — Philadelphia ($476 million), Detroit ($378 million), Phoenix ($336 million)

3. Statewide ballot on Election Day146

4. Abortion-related ballot measures on Election Day10

5. Most ad spending in a Senate race — Ohio ($536 million)

6. Retirements from the House45

7. Black Senate nominees from major parties5

8. House seats gained by the sitting president’s party in 20128

9. House seats gained by the sitting president’s party in 20166

10. House seats gained by the sitting president’s party in 202012

11. Top donor to Democratic outside groups — Michael Bloomberg ($47.4 million)

12. Top donor to Republican outside groups — Timothy Mellon ($197 million)

13. Number of individual donors to the Democratic ticketOver 7 million

14. Number of individual donors to the Republican ticketOver 3 million

Small collage of election items

15. President Joe Biden’s approval ratings — Approve: 38.5%; Disapprove: 56.3%

16. Vice President Kamala Harris’ approval ratings — Approve: 44.3%; Disapprove: 49.2%

17. Former President Donald Trump’s favorability ratings — Favorable: 43.6%; Unfavorable: 52.2%

18. Consecutive months Biden’s approval ratings have been below 50%40

19. Consecutive months Donald Trump’s approval ratings were under 50% as president48

20. Percentage of 2022 voters who did not want Biden to run for president in 202467

21. Generic ballot — Democrat: 46.3%; Republican: 45.6%

22. Direction the country is headed — Right direction: 27%; Wrong direction: 66%

23. States that lost electoral votes due to reapportionment7

24. States that gained electoral votes due to reapportionment6

25. House members who lost their primary4

26. House rematches between the same candidates as in 202275

Small collage of election items

27. Average price of gas in the United States$3.08/gallon

28. Average price of gas in Pennsylvania$3.30/gallon

29. Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate 7.1%

30. Senate races rated as tossups by Cook Political Report4

31. House races rated as tossups by Cook Political Report22

32. Trump vs. Harris national polling average — Harris 49%; Trump 48%

32. Number of votes that decided Arizona in 202010,457

34. Number of votes that decided Georgia in 202011,779

35. When the Associated Press called the presidential election in 201211:38 p.m. EST on Election Night

36. When the Associated Press called the presidential election in 20162:29 a.m. EST on Wednesday

37. When the Associated Press called the presidential election in 202011:26 a.m. EST on Saturday

38. States that have gone Republican in every presidential election since 19689

39. States that have gone Democratic in every presidential election since 19680

40. Number of House Republicans running in districts won by Joe Biden in 202017

41. Number of House Democrats running in districts won by Donald Trump in 20205

42. U.S. GDP growth in the last quarter2.8%

43. Percentage of adults under 30 who regularly get news from TikTok39%

44. Number of states decided by 2 points or less in 20205

45. Number of states Biden flipped in 20205

46. Number of states Trump flipped in 20166

47. Republicans still in the House who voted to impeach Trump2

48. Number of Republican-held governorships up for election8

49. Number of Democratic-held governorships up for election3

50. When the polls close in the final state (Alaska)1 a.m. EST

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s authors at cmahtesian@politico.com, cmchugh@politico.com and slatson@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @PoliticoCharlie, @calder_mchugh and @samanthalatson.

What'd I Miss?

— Georgia turnout on track to exceed 2020: More than 700,000 Georgians have cast ballots today, putting the state on track to surpass its 2020 turnout , according to an afternoon update from Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. Raffensperger said that if turnout trends hold throughout the rest of Election Day, there could be around 1.1 million votes cast today. When combined with the state’s record-breaking early vote turnout, that would mean more than 5 million votes in total. Just under 5 million Georgians participated in the 2020 election.

— Trump votes in Florida, says he doesn’t have a speech prepared: Former President Donald Trump cast his ballot today in Palm Beach where he said he’d run his last campaign even if he lost but predicted a “very big victory.” “If I win I know what I’m going to say, and I don’t even want to think about the losing part,” he told reporters who asked whether he’d prepared a speech for the evening.

— Judge knocks down RNC’s ‘red herring’ attempt to invalidate Georgia votes: A federal judge in Georgia said an eleventh-hour bid by the Republican Party to set aside some absentee votes from Democratic-leaning counties was rife with dishonesty , “red herrings” and demands that would have required him to break his oath to the Constitution. In a stinging oral ruling denying the Republican National Committee’s bid for emergency action, U.S. District Judge R. Stan Baker, a Trump appointee, warned that the party’s bid to toss absentee ballots collected in seven historically Democratic-leaning counties in Georgia over the weekend was based on “no supporting facts” and was an attempt to “tip the scales of this election by discriminating against” people less likely to back Republican candidates.

— Walz makes one last pitch in central Pennsylvania, a traditionally GOP area: Tim Walz made his final argument that Kamala Harris will be a president for all Americans in central Pennsylvania, a conservative stronghold beginning to see Democratic gains . Traditionally Republican south-central Pennsylvania hasn’t gotten much attention from the Democratic ticket in the past, at least not compared with Pittsburgh, the Lehigh Valley and Philadelphia and its suburbs. But Walz’s visit this morning, along with his wife and two children, to a diner in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, reflects the emergence of Pennsylvania’s state capital region as a contested battleground this year.

— Man tries to enter Capitol with torch, flare gun: Capitol Police arrested a man attempting to enter the Capitol Visitors Center with a torch, flare gun and smelling of fuel, according to the department. The man was stopped just after 1:30 p.m. at the screening checkpoint for entering the CVC, according to a statement from USCP. The Capitol Visitors Center, which welcomes about three million visitors per year, is closed “for the day” as the investigation into the incident continues. Staff-led tours are still happening.

— What TV ads tell us about each campaign’s closing message: In the presidential campaigns’ TV ads down the final stretch, it’s been all about the economy. A majority of ads targeting swing-state voters in the last month have touched on economic issues — with Donald Trump and his allies hammering Kamala Harris on inflation, while Democrats promote Harris’ plans to reduce taxes and hit Trump as favoring policies for the wealthy. And Harris has been on viewers’ screens far more than Trump in the final stretch of the campaign.

An hour-by-hour guide for watching election returns

AROUND THE WORLD

Yoav Gallant speaks during a ceremony marking the Hebrew calendar anniversary of the Hamas attack.

Yoav Gallant speaks during a ceremony marking the Hebrew calendar anniversary of the Hamas attack. | Pool photo by Gil Cohen-Magen

YOU’RE FIRED — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu fired the country’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant this evening, citing a “crisis of trust” between the two men.

“To my sorrow, although in the first months of battle there was this trust, and very fertile work, in recent months this trust was cracked,” Netanyahu said in a video.

Gallant will be replaced by Foreign Minister Israel Katz, while Gideon Sa’ar, a minister without a portfolio, will replace Katz as foreign minister, the Prime Minister’s Office announced.

The Biden administration has had a relatively good relationship with Gallant — as opposed to with Netanyahu himself, who has often frustrated the White House.

THE WORLD IS WATCHING — The rest of the world has their attention turned towards America this evening, as the presidential election could be decisive in all sorts of global issues.

The future of everything from U.S. support for Ukraine in its war against Russia to the global trading system is riding on the outcome. Trump, who has repeatedly professed his admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin, has ominously promised to end the two-year-old war in Ukraine within a day of returning to office.

American policy in the Middle East, where desperate conflicts between Israel and its enemies are threatening to spiral out of control, also hangs in the balance.

The economic impact could also be huge. American relations with China — and with Europe — rest on whether Trump wins and implements his proposed harsh tariff regimes.

Nightly Number

$175 million

The amount that Democrats spent on broadcast TV ads on the issue of abortion rights in Senate races this year — far outpacing any other issue area.

RADAR SWEEP

MELTING AWAY — In 2002, the environmental protection organization Greenpeace asked a photographer named Christian Åslund to travel to the Arctic Circle and take photographs documenting the impact of global warming on glaciers compared to similar images from the early 20th century. He completed his assignment, seeing a huge erosion in many of the glaciers. Twenty-two years later, Åslund decided to travel back once again. What he found was a remarkable speeding of the erosion, compared both to the early 20th century and the early 21st. Helena Horton reports in The Guardian, including the remarkable images.

Parting Image

On this date in 1940: Workers in the Washington bureau of the Associated Press tabulate election returns, keeping the score on both electoral and popular votes for the nation.

On this date in 1940: Workers in the Washington bureau of the Associated Press tabulate election returns, keeping the score on both electoral and popular votes for the nation. | AP

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