Tuesday, November 5, 2024

Your guide to Senate results on election night

An evening recap of the action on Capitol Hill and preview of the day ahead
Nov 05, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Katherine Tully-McManus

With assists from POLITICO’s Congress team

A person walks past temporary security fencing placed around the U.S. Capitol building.

A person walks past temporary security fencing placed around the U.S. Capitol building in preparation for Election Day in Washington, on Nov. 3, 2024. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

RIDING THE WAVE 

It’s Election Day, and our team has assembled a guide on how to navigate the waves of results that will roll in Tuesday night and throughout the coming days.

Every race call is big news for some of our readers — a single result can mean the difference between having a job or not. But for Tuesday (and beyond), we’re focusing on what certain calls may signal in terms of chamber control. For now, we’ll explore the Senate, because we’re anticipating the House will take a few days, at least.

House holdup: We’ll start with that reality check: It’s very unlikely we have a call on which party will control the House on Tuesday night, or possibly even this week. All 435 House seats are on the ballot, but a small number of highly competitive races are expected to determine if the chamber flips or not. Our Daniella Diaz rounded those up on Monday.

What we’re watching: Democrats are on defense in the race for the Senate, trying to cling onto seven seats in either red or swing states. Republicans are on defense in two red states — mainly Texas, but also Florida — which have spiced up the map in the home stretch. And don’t forget Nebraska, where an independent challenger is making the race tougher for a GOP incumbent.

Still, if Republicans flip even one seat Democratic seat, chances are that they’ve got control of the chamber, because West Virginia is all but certain to go to Republicans given the retirement of Sen. Joe Manchin. That call for the Senate majority, if it comes tonight, is still likely to come in on the later side, thanks to a concentration of battlegrounds out West in the map this year.

MONTANA as a tipping point? Sen. Jon Tester is the lone Democrat in statewide office in the Treasure State, and while he’s defied tough election odds before, this is the hardest reelection battle he’s faced. Republican Tim Sheehy was handpicked by fellow Montanan and National Republican Senatorial Committee chair Steve Daines, who is leading the GOP effort to retake the Senate. In solid Trump country, Tester will need a lot of voters to split their tickets in order to keep his seat.

Our read: If Montana flips, it’s big, but not necessarily a bellwether for other races. We shall see.

OHIO as a signal: One of the tightest races in the country features incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown against GOP challenger Bernie Moreno. Brown flipped the seat in 2006 and has held on, but Trump has won the increasingly Republican state twice. Brown is another Democrat whose victory depends on thousands of Trump voters splitting their ticket to send him back to the Senate.

Our read: If Ohio goes for Moreno, it signals a good night for Senate Republicans. 

MICHIGAN, PENNSYLVANIA & WISCONSIN: Blue wall or red wave? The top of the ticket may have a big impact in the “blue wall” states that Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are trying to win. Here, the Senate contests are more aligned with the presidential race: serious tossup status.

Our read: If Republicans Mike Rogers, David McCormick and Eric Hovde come out on top, Senate Republicans are having a really good night. If not, an upper chamber red wave may be out of reach. 

NEVADA & ARIZONA: Not a tsunami, but huge: In Arizona, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego has been polling ahead of GOP candidate Kari Lake in recent weeks in the race for the seat vacated by Sen. Kyrsten Sinema.

In Nevada, the Republican-aligned Senate Leadership Fund has poured more than $6 million into Republican Sam Brown’s campaign in the last two weeks to try to boost his challenge to Democratic incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen.

Our read: If Brown and Lake claim victory, Republicans will be ready to declare a huge Senate red wave.

MARYLAND & VIRGINIA: Popular two-term Republican governor Larry Hogan made typically blue Maryland into a real race this cycle as Democrat Angela Alsobrooks tries to keep the seat, vacated by retiring Sen. Ben Cardin, in Democratic hands. Polling in recent weeks put Alsobrooks ahead by a dozen points, with Hogan behind but outperforming Trump.

Our read: These races have been leaning towards Democrats. If that doesn’t hold and they flip red, keep an ear out for tsunami sirens from the GOP. 

TEXAS & NEBRASKA: Some red a states are on Tuesday’s watchlist. Turning Texas blue seemed like a long shot at the start of this cycle, but both the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and Senate Majority PAC have made massive investments in Rep. Colin Allred’s challenge to Sen. Ted Cruz as polls showed a closer race than expected.

In Nebraska, two-term Republican Sen. Deb Fischer is favored. But a win by independent challenger Dan Osborn would be a gutting loss for the Senate GOP.

Our read: These seats staying Republican wouldn’t be that surprising. But if they don’t win in either, it’s a signal that Democrats could have a chance at holding onto the Senate.

— Katherine Tully-McManus, with help from Anthony Adragna 

GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Inside Congress, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Tuesday, Nov. 5, where it’s finally Election Day.

 

REGISTER NOW: Join POLITICO and Capital One for a deep-dive discussion with Acting HUD Secretary Adrianne Todman, Rep. Darin LaHood (R-IL), Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-NY) and other housing experts on how to fix America’s housing crisis and build a foundation for financial prosperity. Register to attend in-person or virtually here.

 
 

DEMS ENTER ELECTION NIGHT WITH CONFIDENCE

If House Democrats have any regrets about Vice President Kamala Harris’ closing message that included both economic pushes and a loftier pro-democracy theme, they’re not showing them. Despite some private hand-wringing about what some in the party saw as sometimes too far of a lean into pro-democracy ideas and Trump, most in the party were satisfied with Harris’ balancing act and were optimistic about their chances of returning to the majority after Tuesday.

“I think she's drawing the contrast with former President Trump and the risks of Trump getting elected, but also putting out her economic message and how she really is out there to try to help folks. And I think you are seeing some of that economic message resonate,” said Rep. Ami Bera (D-Calif.).

Of course, it’s not an approach that all Democrats were running in their campaigns. Candidates in purple districts or states have to win some Trump voters to stand any chance of winning their races, so running against Trump was never going to be a part of their campaigns. And some, like Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.), have even touted their Trump ties in ads.

Others said the pro-democracy message would still resonate with voters.

“Democracy and freedom will always be hugely important to voters across political party and affiliation, and Jan. 6, for the vast majority of Americans, was appalling. It was deeply disturbing, and it speaks to the chaos that comes with Trump,” said purple-district Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio).

— Nicholas Wu and Daniella Diaz

FIRST DIBS ON SENATE SENIORITY 

Two Senate newcomers will have a leg up on their colleagues heading into the 119th Congress.

The Senate races in reliably blue New Jersey and California aren’t exactly nail-biters. But we’re watching them because of what they could mean for the Senate. Both are being held on Election Day, but are actually special elections to fill seats vacated by the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein and former Sen. Bob Menendez and temporarily filled by appointees Laphonza Butler and George Helmy.

Andy Kim and Adam Schiff, who have been favored in polling out of New Jersey and California, respectively, will therefore already be a few months ahead of their fellow freshman colleagues, who won’t be sworn in until January.

Seniority determines a lot in the Senate. But for these two Democrats it doesn’t matter as much as it would if they were Republicans. The Senate GOP Conference relies much more heavily on seniority for determining committee assignments, committee leadership and more.

— Katherine Tully-McManus

HUDDLE HOTDISH

Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks bids farewell to her Democratic tracker.

QUICK LINKS 

Why Women in Politics Secretly Love This Sustainable Shoe Brand, from Elizabeth Holmes for Elle

'Through the finish line': Rep. Jeffries makes final push in bid to flip U.S. House, become speaker, from Kevin Frey at NY1

Larry Hogan decides not to decide, and skips voting for president, from Brenda Wintrode and Pamela Wood at the Baltimore Banner

Man tries to enter Capitol with torch, flare gun, from KTM

TRANSITIONS 

Kate Hunter, a former aide to Sen. Tim Scott, is Indo-Pacific Command's chief of Senate affairs.

Bob Joachim is now senior director for U.S. government partnerships at Zscaler. He most recently worked for the House Appropriations Homeland Security Subcommittee.

TOMORROW IN CONGRESS

The Senate holds a pro forma session at noon.

The House is out.

WEDNESDAY AROUND THE HILL

The thrill of victory, the agony of defeat.

TRIVIA

MONDAY’S ANSWER: Christopher Casey correctly answered that Pennsylvania was the state whose 2nd Congressional District was where, in 1826, Jacksonian Henry Horn and Federalist John Sergeant both received 1,597 votes, leading the governor to call the seat vacant.

TODAY’S QUESTION, from Christopher: Which book on international law did Benjamin Franklin say was "continually in the hands of the members of [... the Continental] congress.”

The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Inside Congress. Send your answers to insidecongress@politico.com.

GET INSIDE CONGRESS emailed to your phone each evening.

 

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