Tuesday, November 5, 2024

An early look at what comes next

Presented by PlasticsTreaty.Org: A newsletter from POLITICO for leaders building a sustainable future.
Nov 05, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Jordan Wolman

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THE BIG IDEA

Early voting in Wisconsin.

Election Day is upon us. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO

DECISIONS, DECISIONS — You probably didn't need us to tell you this, but today is kind of a big deal.

Voters will decide whether Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris should get a promotion and make history as the country’s first female president or return GOP nominee former President Donald Trump to the White House.

Here are a few sustainability-related issues to watch that could be either heavily influenced by the election outcome or see movement in the upcoming lame duck period.

Inflation Reduction Act: The fate of tens of billions of dollars in unspent climate and infrastructure money could be on the line if Trump wins and makes good on his promise to claw back much of that money.

Democrats’ signature climate law could be blunted if loans and grants for battery and electric vehicle manufacturing plants, solar and offshore wind production, cleaner trucks and jet fuel and climate resilience projects don’t come to fruition.

Most benefits from Biden’s climate and infrastructure laws have gone to red regions of the country, according to a POLITICO analysis, but Democrats have struggled to message those benefits to voters, according to a new POLITICO-Morning Consult poll.

ESG: Corporate and regulatory policies around environmental, social and governance principles could be significantly influenced by today’s results. Republicans have conducted a campaign pushing back against ESG over the past few years that has Democrats and Wall Street playing defense.

While the divide is likely to continue regardless of who wins, two policies enacted during President Joe Biden’s time in office are especially worth watching.

The Securities and Exchange Commission’s controversial climate risk disclosure rule, which requires public companies to disclose some of their greenhouse gas emissions, could be an easy target to roll back should Trump win — if it even survives legal challenges. And a Labor Department rule allowing pension fund managers to consider ESG factors could be similarly vulnerable.

“These things would move with the ebb and flow of the administrations, and those are pretty well-known” policies that would be impacted by the election outcome, said Julie Anderson, former head of U.S. sustainable exchange-traded funds at BlackRock who now works as associate program director for American University’s Kogod School of Business master of science in the sustainability management program.

Permitting reform: Lawmakers might still make a push to streamline permitting for energy, transmission and minerals projects in the lame duck period before the next Congress is sworn in in January. It’s been a rare area of common ground for a substantial chunk of members of both parties, even though they’ve yet to reach agreement on a compromise measure.

Democrats are pushing for changes that can bring new renewable energy production onto the grid, but they don’t want to gut environmental laws in the process. Republicans want to ensure fossil fuel infrastructure can benefit from that same streamlining.

One person to watch: Permitting could be a last grandstand play for Sen. Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.), who has made it a pet issue and is retiring at the end of this Congress.

Climate diplomacy: U.S. engagement on the world stage could differ dramatically depending on who wins the White House. While Harris would likely largely continue Biden’s climate agenda, Trump has vowed to pull the U.S. out of the Paris Climate Accords, like he did in his first term, and has expressed general disdain for global agreements.

Biden administration negotiators will be attending the U.N.’s annual climate summit just days after the election working with diplomats from around the world to broker a climate finance deal to help developing nations slash emissions and adapt to a warming planet.

WASHINGTON WATCH

PLASTIC POLITICS — Today’s election could have a significant impact on another key environmental issue: Plastic pollution and whether negotiators from around the world can reach agreement on a U.N. deal to address the problem ahead of a year-end deadline.

The fifth and final scheduled round of talks set to start later this month in South Korea will be awkward for the Biden administration-led U.S. delegation no matter who wins the White House, because they will be dealing with contentious details essentially as lame ducks.

But the prospect of Trump returning to the White House is rattling allies and raising questions about what kind of U.S. the world will be getting, your host reports with Leonie Cater.

“A Trump election would really spell doom, I think, for a strong treaty, at least one that includes the United States,” said Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.), who joined a congressional delegation at the last round of negotiations in Ottawa.

Negotiators are feeling extra pressure to stick to the original timeline to head off any potential influence a Trump administration could have on the talks should they spill into 2025.

Republican lawmakers have expressed opposition to the Biden administration’s new support for the idea of requiring a reduction of global plastic production, and their resistance could increase the already long odds against Senate ratification no matter who wins the presidency.

“The United States has been historically difficult in ratifying binding U.N. treaties,” said a diplomat aligned with a coalition of nations supporting production reductions, who was granted anonymity to discuss the situation. “And I think that is going to be where the challenge is: How do you land this at home?”

The U.S. has yet to ratify U.N. agreements like the Convention on the Law of the Sea, which was adopted in 1982 and has been in force for 30 years, and the Convention on Biological Diversity, which has been in force since 1993 and been ratified by 196 countries.

AROUND THE NATION

BORDER ODOR — There have been plenty of harsh words exchanged on the campaign trail about the crisis of migrants crossing the southern border, but little or no mention of an issue that has raised a stink along the California coast.

Sewage is flowing from Tijuana, Mexico, into the Pacific Ocean, bringing a trail of contamination that has forced cancellation of military operations, closed beaches, upended the local economy and sent the mayor of a California beach town to the hospital after the foul odor made her feel like she was having a heart attack, Ry Rivard reports.

“I’m a surfer. I don’t smoke. I don’t drink,” said Imperial Beach Mayor Paloma Aguirre. “So, I don’t think it’d be a far-fetched idea to think that this is related to the exposure of these gases, right? And if it’s happening to me, it’s happening to dozens, if not hundreds of people that are being exposed to this.”

Even as Trump has mentioned border problems in nearly every campaign appearance this year, he’s barely touched the issue. Neither has Harris since she became vice president.

There’s plenty of blame to go around, and part of it lies with a failing treatment plant in San Diego. California politicians have been trying to solve the problem for 40 years — almost too long to be declared an emergency.

In efforts to address the issue, past local officials have done everything from trying to dam the Tijuana River to go to court to compel federal intervention to meeting with Rudy Giuliani during Trump’s time in the White House.

Trump did talk about ocean sewage during a visit to the border in 2019, but he spoke in a way that made it seem like he was blaming homeless people and the Los Angeles subway system for the problem.

Even with an emerging bipartisan push in Congress to solve the problem, the fix will be years off: Infrastructure improvements will need hundreds of millions of dollars and increased cooperation between U.S. and Mexico officials.

“The U.S. government has to put a lot more pressure on Mexico,” said Phillip Musegaas, head of San Diego Coastkeeper, one of the region’s most influential environmental organizations.

TECH MONEY — California State Sen. Scott Wiener, the San Francisco progressive behind a landmark climate law, is expected to cruise to reelection today — with some help from a company that stands to benefit from the measure.

We reported earlier this fall that Persefoni, a carbon accounting firm that's expected to see a boost in business from the law compelling large companies to disclose greenhouse gas emissions, established a campaign committee to help fund Wiener's all-but-certain bid to win a third term. The committee has raised $45,000 — all from Persefoni itself — and it has spent more than $40,000 on billboard advertising, legal and accounting work and campaign consulting.

It's a drop in the bucket in the more than $785,000 Wiener has raised overall, with backing from SEIU, Walgreens, General Motors, the California Restaurant Association and the California State Council of Laborers.

But it could be a part of longer-term play: A tech company putting money behind Wiener signals that the industry isn’t all against him, even though he sponsored artificial intelligence legislation that drew criticism from Silicon Valley. Tech industry support could be important for Wiener, who is said to have his eye on succeeding Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi in Congress.

Persefoni declined to comment. But a company spokesperson previously told POLITICO that the committee was created for "climate leaders to support" Wiener's bid and that his "track record supporting climate issues within California speaks for itself.”

Wiener spokesperson Erik Mebust said that it's unlawful for the campaign to coordinate with Persefoni since it's an independent expenditure but that Wiener "welcomes support from any groups dedicated to climate action.

 

A message from PlasticsTreaty.Org:

The world is watching. It’s time for US leaders to step up. The unchecked production of plastics fuels climate change, threatens public health, and destabilizes economies. As the final scheduled global plastics treaty negotiations approach, US leaders have a chance to take critical action to end this crisis once and for all. US leaders must do what it takes to deliver a treaty that cuts plastic production. Learn more.

 
YOU TELL US

GAME ON — Welcome to the Long Game, where we tell you about the latest on efforts to shape our future. Join us every Tuesday as we keep you in the loop on the world of sustainability.

Team Sustainability is editor Greg Mott and reporter Jordan Wolman. Reach us at gmott@politico.com and jwolman@politico.com.

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A message from PlasticsTreaty.Org:

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WHAT WE'RE CLICKING

— Scientists think they may have discovered the reason why methane emissions have spiked in recent years, according to Washington Post.

— Former President Donald Trump’s plans for eliminating climate rules could spark a backlash against fossil fuel companies, an industry executive tells the Financial Times.

— Cannabis is on the ballot in four states at a time when the weed industry is growing alongside concerns about its environmental impact, Bloomberg reports.

 

A message from PlasticsTreaty.Org:

The plastics crisis has reached a tipping point. We have an opportunity to end it and need the US to lead.

The unchecked production of plastics is fueling climate change, destabilizing economies, and exposing us to chemicals associated with cancer, infertility, and Alzheimer’s disease. As we enter the final scheduled global plastics treaty negotiations this November, US leaders have a chance to deliver a treaty that could end this escalating crisis.

While US leaders have promised to tackle plastic pollution, they have yet to take the action we desperately need. Communities in the US and around the world are calling for a treaty that reduces plastic production and limits our exposure to the toxic chemicals associated with plastics.

The world is watching, and the stakes are clear: it’s time for the US to step up and secure a treaty that curbs plastic pollution at its source. Learn more.

 
 

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