Tuesday, November 5, 2024

Illinois has races to watch, too

Presented by Uber: Shia Kapos' must-read rundown of political news in the Land of Lincoln
Nov 05, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO Illinois Playbook Newsletter Header

By Shia Kapos

Presented by 

Uber

Happy Election Day, Illinois! POLITICO will have election results here.

WRAP-UP: We’re at the Hideout on Thursday with Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky talking about election results. Tickets here

TOP TALKER

It all comes down to today (and tomorrow, or even longer) for presidential nominees Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

It all comes down to today (and tomorrow) for presidential nominees Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. | AP photos

ILLINOIS IS A SLEEPER in the highly contested presidential race, but there are still races that matter on the local level. Here’s what we’re watching:

IL-17 CONGRESSIONAL RACE: Republicans hope to expand their slim majority in the U.S. House by taking this seat now held by Congressman Eric Sorensen, a first-term Democrat. He’s in a competitive race with Republican challenger Joe McGraw, a former judge, who’s received high-profile support, including from House Speaker Mike Johnson.

McGraw’s campaign has worked to paint Sorensen as too far left, but that’s been a challenge as the congressman has received endorsements from the Illinois Farm Bureau and numerous labor groups.

Even Republican-leaning pollster M3 Strategies has Sorensen up. Poll here

THREE BALLOT MEASURES: The outcome of these statewide, non-binding measures will guide lawmakers on future legislation. The questions ask whether residents with homes of more than $1 million should be taxed higher, whether insurance should cover in vitro fertilization and whether there should be penalties for candidates who interfere with election workers. The Tribune has more.

�� ABOUT SECESSION: Seven counties are asking voters whether to explore the idea of severing ties with Cook County and forming a new state, by NBC 5.

SCHOOL BOARD RACES: Chicago is holding its first-ever school board elections, the first step to moving away from a mayor-appointed school board. We say “first step” because only half of the 21-member new board will be elected. The other half will be appointed until the next election when everyone gets elected.

What that means: The Chicago Teachers Union has put about $1.5 million into campaigns for candidates it supports, and millions more has gone into funding other, independent candidates. Given Mayor Brandon Johnson is a close ally of CTU, he could appoint any CTU-backed candidate who doesn’t win outright in today’s contests. Chalkbeat has more on school-board race spending here.

LAKE COUNTY STATE’S ATTORNEY RACE: Incumbent State’s Attorney Eric Rinehart , a Democrat, and Republican challenger Mary Cole have butted heads on a range of issues, including the Safe-T Act, which eliminated cash bail in Illinois. Rinehart supports the new law, saying it has allowed more people, particularly child pornography defendants, to be detained — instead of making bail. Cole claims the new law doesn’t give judges enough discretion. Given Lake County has shifted Democrat in recent years, the presidential election will likely help Rinehart. The Lake County News-Sun examines the race here.

COOK COUNTY STATE’S ATTORNEY RACE: We expect Democratic candidate Eileen O’Neil Burke to edge out Republican Bob Fioretti, but given he was once a Democrat and has been endorsed by the Rev. Jesse Jackson , we’ll see how close it is. This seat opened up after Kim Foxx announced she wouldn’t seek reelection.

STATE HOUSE: Democrats hope to pick up a few seats in the House, particularly focusing the 52nd and 114th districts. Democrats already have a supermajority, so to add seats would mean managing the caucus is like herding cats.

52nd DISTRICT, northwest suburbs: Republican state Rep. Martin “Marty” McLaughlin of Barrington Hills faces Maria Peterson, a Democrat who serves on the North Barrington Plan Commission. Democrats have been pouring money in to flip this seat.

114th District, metro-east area: State Rep. Kevin Schmidt is facing Democrat LaToya Greenwood. The drama about this race: Two years ago, Schmidt defeated Greenwood, who previously held the seat.

STATE SENATE: Democrats and Republicans are likely to break even in these races. We’ve been watching the 40th District race in Will County between Democratic state Sen. Patrick Joyce and Republican challenger Philip Nagel. The early thinking had Joyce in trouble, but Republicans have since pulled out on TV and mail buys, an indication that Democrats will be able to hold on.

THE BUZZ

ON BLACK VOTERS: A key statistic in the presidential race will be where Black men land in voting this year. Mayor Brandon Johnson has been on the trail for Kamala Harris in Black churches and communities in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Michigan and Nevada. Johnson has been working to rev up the vote among Black men, which some polling has indicated could be down from previous Democratic presidential contests.

NOT A MONOLITH : Johnson reminds that Black men are not all the same and that the base of the Democratic Party is still the Black community. “The vast majority of Black men are not walking in that small percentage of frustration. Polling has already said roughly 85 percent of Black men are going to vote for her already. Like, is there any one group outside of Black women that give that percentage of votes to one single candidate?” he told your Playbook host.

 “If there's something that is more overwhelmingly unprecedented it's the number of Republicans and white men who are going to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris,” Johnson said. “There are some Black men who always vote Republican, who are conservatives. It has nothing to do with Vice President Kamala Harris. It didn't matter who the Democratic nominee was, they were going to vote Republican because they vote Republican. We are talking about a potential, small margin that may not look any different than any other Democrat versus Republican.”

If you are Eileen O’Neil Burke , Playbook would like to hear from you! Email: skapos@politico.com

WHERE'S JB

No official public events

WHERE's BRANDON

No official public events

Where's Toni

No official public events

Have a tip, suggestion, birthday, new job or (heaven forbid) a complaint? Email: skapos@politico.com

 

A message from Uber:

Uber Expands Safety Features For Drivers. Uber’s CEO met with drivers and couriers to unveil new updates to make their experience safer and fairer. Among them, Record My Ride lets drivers use their phones as a dashcam on trips. Uber also revamped its deactivation processes, enabling drivers to appeal decisions directly in the app. Learn more.

 
ELECTION UPDATES

Long lines and a blustery Election Day greeting Chicago-area voters — weather befitting the end of a turbulent campaign season, by the Tribune’s Rick Pearson and Olivia Olander

Illinois State Board of Elections monitoring social media for misinformation, by WAND’s Mike Miletich

Political experts brace for the most unpredictable election of their careers, by POLITICO’s Megan Messerly and Zach Montellaro

— Live results coming from Chicago Tribune, Sun-Times/WBEZ, State Journal-Register, WGN 9, ABC 7, NBC 5

— Watching returns: Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, both battleground states, don't start counting mail-in and early-voting ballots until Election Day. It's a lengthy process that has election officials adding those results sometime after midnight. That means early returns will give the false impression that one presidential candidate, most likely Donald Trump, has a huge lead in a battleground state, given Milwaukee and Philadelphia are Democratic strongholds. Kamala Harris won't see a surge until those early ballots are put in the system.

It create "a lot of suspicion and misinformation about what's happening," said Barry Burden , a University of Wisconsin-Madison political science professor who runs an elections center on campus. "There were a lot of allegations in 2020 about votes being dumped or something happening maliciously in the middle of the night because it did happen in the middle of the night. That’s when election officials finished their work. It's really just a product of the state law that requires that they can't start counting until Election Day.”

THE STATEWIDES

— MADIGAN TRIAL: Jurors hear tape of Madigan being informed of plan to pay ousted aide: ‘Yeah, I think I oughta stay out of it,’ by the Tribune’s Jason Meisner and Megan Crepeau

What's driving the state’s possible deficit? “For 2026, healthcare and human services represent half of projected spending increases,” by Capitol News’ Jerry Nowicki in this followup to a new report on the budget.

ConEd pitches $100M in rate relief:Con Edison plans to ask the New York Public Service Commission to direct more rate relief to low-income utility customers this summer using $100 million in surplus NYSERDA money,” by POLITICO’s Ry Rivard.

There’s a statewide effort planned to boost student math scores, by Capitol News’ Peter Hancock

 

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CHICAGO

— BREAKING LAST NIGHT: Chicago police officer shot to dezacath while on the job in Chatham, by the Sun-Times’ Tom Schuba and Emmanuel Camarillo

CTA says train service returns to pre-pandemic levels this fall, touting a win for embattled President Dorval Carter, by the Tribune’s Sarah Freishtat

How about Metra and Pace?, by the Daily Herald’s Marni Pyke

If you block a bike lane downtown, you’ll now get a ticket or warning, by the Block Club’s Melody Mercado

Michael Jordan collectibles sell for $8.5M at Sotheby's auction, by the Sun-Times’ Violet Miller

Reader Digest

We asked about Election Day rituals.

Alex Arroyo: “I wear the same outfit! SIU baseball cap, plaid tie, white Oxford shirt. My candidates win when I wear it!” Pic!

Denise Barreto: “For all election days, not just presidential, I work from home, get my favorite food, watch intently ALONE, taking no calls, only limited texts. Initial processing solo.”

Dave Dahl: “Vote in person on Election Day.”

Daniel Goldwin : “I always try to take my daughters with me to vote. This will be the last time, as my wife and I will soon become empty-nesters.”

Donna Gutman: “Inhale 1.2.3.4. Then exhale 1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8. Every hour.”

Dave Lundy: “Manny's and then later huddle up with a bunch of screens, making sure my ‘refresh’ finger is warmed up and limber for the long night ahead.”

Michael Marsh: “I switch back and forth between the mainstream media television stations and conservative talk radio stations.”

John McCabe: “I like to get up early and be the first in line at my polling place.”

Marilynn Miller : "I go to bed early and wait until morning. No use getting upset by the back and forth during the night."

Ed Mullen: “On Election Day in 2004, I organized voter protection for the DNC in Wisconsin (inspired by Bush/Gore 2000), and every Election Day since I have done voter protection somewhere.”

Mark Rosenberg: “New ritual: prayer.”

Scott Simon: is known to read “The Last Hurrah” before Election Day.

Patricia Ann Watson: “Soothing sounds, music, smells, good iced teas, staying in peace, on standby if needed.”

Next question: What question do you always ask at cocktail parties? Email skapos@politico.com

THE NATIONAL TAKE

Here’s how Trump can win.Here’s how Harris can win, by POLITICO’s Steven Shepard

A key Trump staffer was fired for being a white nationalist, by Amanda Moore for POLITICO

The Pennsylvania race serving as a test of Democrats’ evolving democracy message, by POLITICO’s Madison Fernandez

 

A message from Uber:

Uber’s Latest Updates Put Drivers First

At an in-person event with drivers, Uber’s CEO announced updates to give them more peace of mind. Uber has started flagging inappropriate rider behavior when drivers report it. The Record My Ride feature allows drivers to capture video and audio during trips, improving accountability and safety. Plus the app also got more hands-free with Siri voice commands, letting drivers focus on the road while staying connected. Learn more.

 
Transitions

Myer Blank is now special assistant for Intergovernmental Affairs for the Cook County Board of Review District One, represented by George Cardenas. Blank has been a property tax consultant who previously was executive director of the city’s Chicago Tax Assistance Center.

Berto Aguayo is set to be sworn in Wednesday as an attorney before starting his legal career as an associate at the global law firm K&L Gates. Aguayo founded and has been executive director of Increase The Peace. He’s staying with the nonprofit as a board member.

TRIVIA

MONDAY’s ANSWER: Congrats to Monica Heenan for correctly answering that the cheddar curtain is located on the Illinois-Wisconsin border, a hat tip to Wisconsin’s cheesehead moniker.

TODAY’s QUESTION: How many municipalities are in Cook County? Email skapos@politico.com

HAPPY BIRTHDAY

Law Bulletin Editor-extraordinaire Andrea Hanis, NAMI Chicago as Associate VP of Policy Lily Rocha, attorney Meryl Holt Silverman and Crain’s Assistant Managing Editor Cassandra West.

-30-

 

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Shia Kapos @shiakapos

 

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